Preview: Notre Dame 2010 Comment Count

Brian

First, and sadly: due to a honeymoon in Paris (not mine), longtime friendly adversary Brian of the House Rock Built was unavailable for a Vicious Electronic Questioning this year. I haven't run across any Notre Dame bloggers who aren't enthusiastically answering their roundtable question about why they hate Michigan with links to the Blue-Gray Sky thing they posted on this blog that mostly talks about people who have been dead for many years, so a replacement just wouldn't be the same. Who goes on a honeymoon during football season anyway?

But I can boil it down to its essence:

 NBA on NBC -- NBC Sports -- Pictured: Tom Hammond, Play-by-Play Announcer -- NBC PhotoNBA on NBC -- NBC Sports -- Pictured: Tom Hammond, Play-by-Play Announcer -- NBC PhotoNBA on NBC -- NBC Sports -- Pictured: Tom Hammond, Play-by-Play Announcer -- NBC Photo

I know I feel better. On with shew.

EssentialsNotreDame_Logo3

WHAT Michigan @ Notre Dame
WHERE Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
WHEN 3:30 Eastern, September 11th 2010
THE LINE Notre Dame -4
TELEVISION NBC
WEATHER mid-60s, 40% chance of rain, 10 mph wind

Run Offense vs. Notre Dame

Michigan obliterated UConn on the ground, racking up 287 yards on 61 carries. That's 4.7 YPC despite running about 75% of the time and spending the last ten minutes of the game pounding it into a stacked line. Denard Robinson did the bulk of the damage running simple QB lead draws that UConn could not stop even after UConn adjusted to them and Michigan showed no inclination to stop calling rock. The tackles performed above expectations, Steve Schilling seems to have made a senior leap, and David Molk is back. The one sore spot on the line was sophomore guard Patrick Omameh. You probably know this bit already.

How meaningful that is is still a question. UConn returned five of its front seven (both defensive tackles and all three linebackers) but lost a projected starter at DE before the season and may have played Greg Lloyd at MLB despite an injury. Last year they were the #45 rush defense nationally largely thanks to playing a lot of terrible rush defenses. When it came time to play anyone with a mobile quarterback or a tailback, they got shredded. Jury may be leaning one way, but it's still out.

dandierking

Third stringer Dan Dierking career YPC: 4.0. Versus ND: 6.2, although on just nine carries.

As far as Notre Dame goes, their opening matchup against Purdue is not indicative of much either. The Boilers lost Ralph Bolden before the season and went with a platoon of a dinged, unprepared Al-Terek McBurse and Dan Dierking, which latter the announcers tried to praise by saying he could play fullback too. You may remember Dierking playing against Michigan in the long-long ago when Purdue had a similar rash of injuries, but after a 42-carry freshman season his stats for the last two years combined are 12 carries for 38 yards.

A mélange of those guys, worse-at-running-than-he-thinks quarterback Robert Marve, and assorted who-dats went for 136 yards on 28 carries, Marve's four sacks excluded. That's… kind of ominous for the Irish, as it's a 4.9 YPC against Dierking and the Who-Dats (AKA: Who-dat and the Who-Dats.) Compounding the ominous Tom Hammond head hovering over the ND run defense, Purdue returned just two starters on the offensive line. Two of the new guys are position switch starters somewhere between ominous and klaxon-deploying: the right tackle was a backup defensive tackle last year; the center is a 6'6" converted tackle who had never played the position in his life before being told to practice snapping in June. Despite this, Purdue coaches were positive about him after the game:

"He graded out winning," Nord said of Mondek. "Peters Drey had a very good player head up on him the whole day and he held his own. He did an excellent job for the first time snapping in the game."

Also, in that article the Purdue coaches pin the blame for three of Marve's four sacks on Marve for not throwing the ball on time. The Boilers are going to rush for like six yards a game this year.

Last year's game is worth noting since the lines will be similar: Michigan went for 190 yards on 38 caries with a long of 32. Many arrows point towards schwing. The only one pointing away is the presumably increased competence of the ND coaching staff.

Key Matchup: David Molk vs Ian Williams. The first sign Molk was going to be good was two years ago in the driving rain at Notre Dame Stadium when he blasted Williams back time and again, opening holes up for what would be the best game of Sam McGuffie's Michigan career. A year later he was a major factor in Michigan's 5 YPC. If he can do the same thing this year, Michigan's guards will have free releases on the sophomore middle linebackers and Notre Dame will struggle to get Michigan off the field.

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame

Michigan fans' reaction to Denard Robinson's throwing in the UConn game was basically this:

And not without reason when you send Tacopants into a mopey sideline pout due to lack of playing time. Stipulated that UConn's secondary must be terrible and that Gary Gray and Darrin Walls will be a major step up. If the ground game is working like it seems it might, however, the excitable Te'o ("yeah, he missed that tackle, but he missed it like a FIVE STAR") and the rest of the Notre Dame linebacking corps will be tested more than the cornerbacks. The only times Michigan went after corners against UConn were on hitches; everything else was safeties and linebackers. That seems like a viable strategy against ND.

The questions for Robinson are the ones detailed in UFR:

It's more about what happens when his receivers are covered. Can he come off a primary read? Can he consistently recognize when guys are covered? Can he process information fast enough to get the passes out on time?

Notre Dame will spend a lot of time working on a counter to the snag that Robinson threw to good effect against UConn, leaving him riskier throws further downfield that require more recognition than "where is the linebacker"; UConn's inability to play anything but zone against Robinson hurt them badly.

As far as ND goes, Marve struggled against the veteran secondary, throwing a pick when Walls sank into the deep route in cover two and Marve chucked it anyway and completing a large number of uselessly short passes. Though he went 31 of 42, all those completions only gained 220 yards, a Threet/Sheridan-esque 5.2 YPC. The longest completion of the day went for 16 yards. Notre Dame also racked up four sacks, though as mentioned the coaching staff put the blame for three of them on Marve; the fourth was blamed on a tailback's blitz pickup. Notre Dame looks to have the same low-mistake secondary they've had for a long time.

Key Matchup: Play action OMG versus ND linebackers. More play action combined with a successful run game and some inexperience at MLB could yield a big day for slots and tight ends.

Run Defense vs. Notre Dame

First, everything ND did on offense against Purdue:

Did you get all that? AAL breaks it down in various ways. The bit relevant to this section:

On 1st and 10, the Irish were 68% run, 32% pass. On all other downs they were 21% run, 79% pass. … Most popular runs: Power (8), Inside Zone (5), Draw (3), Read Zone (3) …  Purdue plays a 4-3 and was happy to sit in Cover 2 for almost 50% of all plays. Often a nickel back was in the game replacing the Sam, but serving the same function. The safeties sat at 10-12 pre-snap and weren’t going to let anything over their heads.

Despite the predictability of ND's run distribution, tailbacks Cierre Wood and Armando Allen combined to have an almost Denard-like day with 25 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown. As you can see above, they looked good doing it. (The move to the spread has apparently spelled doom for Robert Hughes and Jonas Gray.) Notre Dame also ran Crist seven times for 20 yards, though he looked bad enough at it that I assume they'll either drop it entirely or keep it as a very occasional effort to keep defenses honest.

Is Purdue's run defense any good? Eh… probably not. They returned 4-5 starters in their front seven but those guys were good for just 94th nationally last year.

Of course, the next question is "is Michigan's run defense any good?" They were 91st (WOO SUCKIT PURDUE) last year and though they return 5-ish of their front seven from last year (counting the spur as a linebacker) the losses were Brandon Graham and Stevie Brown, AKA definitely the best run-defense players on the team last year.

The UConn game does give reason for hope. The Huskies returned four starters and Jordan Todman from a rushing game that was 39th nationally a year ago, but only racked up 138 yards on 30 carries, with 26 of those coming on two carries when Michigan was in a full-on prevent. When Michigan was in their base defense, UConn averaged 3.6 YPC. If Michigan can replicate that they'll be in good shape.

Key Matchup: Mike Martin vs Braxton Cave. Cave was a surprise starter when Dan Wenger suffered a concussion in fall camp, and while he was a decently well-regarded recruit Martin should be coming into his own this year to the point where he tears through Cave like his presence is theoretical. If this happens, Notre Dame's ground game will suffer.

mike-floyd-cissoko Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame

HAHAHAHA. End preview.

All right, fine: this looked like a pending disaster before the season and looks like a pending disaster after week one, but maybe slightly less of one? Michigan's corners were effective against UConn's short passing game and blameless on their long completions. Cam Gordon made one understandable mistake amongst a reel of good angles, big hits, and mostly responsible play. This is still going to be a horror show; maybe it will be slightly less of one than everyone expects.

On the Notre Dame side of things, Crist proved he wasn't Jimmah, at least not yet, several times. He overthrew several receivers and did not react well when Purdue let the dogs out:

Purdue only blitzed 3 times before the score was 20-3. The Irish handled it at that time (+5, +12, +7). After, Purdue blitzed 8 times netting 2 sacks, 3 incompletions, 1 scramble (for 0 yards), and a safety on a run play. Against the late blitzes, the Irish succeeded once on an Inside Zone run (+18).

Even with those negatives the final numbers were 19 of 26 for 206 yards and a touchdown: efficient but not explosive. His YPA was actually worse than Robinson's, his YPC slightly higher, and this was against a secondary replacing all four starters. IE: probably not a ton better than UConn's. The deep ball was not part of the arsenal. Was Purdue able to bracket Floyd because the guy opposite him this year is Duvall Kamara—all but a tight end—instead of Golden Tate? Is Crist significantly worse at it than Clausen? Was it just one of things? Data not found. Blue Seoul suggests it might be the Crist bit:

Still big, still fast, still got great jumping ability.  Unfortunately for him, Crist doesn't seem able to hit him on a fly.  Twice they tried a double move, with Crist missing badly.  Something's not right with their timing.  But he's a huge threat on deep hooks and other sit down routes against a zone.

Even with all that mitigation, your hopes are probably an inch off the floor and that's where they should be. Keeping Floyd off the board on the long ones is all but impossible unless Michigan's pass rush is murderous, and while they were good against UConn they were not murderous.

Key Matchup: Mouton and Roh and to some extent Van Bergen vs ND tackles. ND went empty a ton against Purdue, leaving one-on-one matchups for their offensive linemen. The ND tackles are new and didn't do so hot against Ryan Kerrigan, though that might be understandable. Meanwhile, Roh displayed far greater pass-rush ability against UConn than he did as a freshman in limited time since Michigan rushed three frustratingly often. Van Bergen did not have an impactful game in his first game as a DT, but when Michigan goes to its rush package and Mouton puts his hand down he's a difficult matchup. If Michigan can get to Crist with regularity they win. If not, they probably lose.

Special Teams

Michigan was shaky a week ago. Jeremy Gallon let a punt bounce down to the four, made a ridiculous decision to run up under a 30-yarder and got the muff we all knew was coming. Michigan recovered. Brendan Gibbons missed a 42-yarder, made a 24-yarder, and missed one of four extra points. Kickoff returns were eh, and Michigan elected to frustratingly squib several kicks.

In the aftermath, Rodriguez attributed almost all of that to the wind, gave Gallon a vote of confidence on punt returns, and said Gibbons was good to go this week.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, got a big punt return from Armando Allen—on Purdue's only punt—and saw their field goal kicker go 3/3. On the other hand, their net punting average is just 31.7 yards.

Key Matchup: HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL.

Intangibles

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Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Craig Roh and Mike Martin aren't getting to the quarterback on five- and seven-step drops.
  • Patrick Omameh looks as shaky as he did against UConn.
  • Crist launches anything downfield.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Denard.
  • David Molk puts Ian Williams on skates again.
  • The run game's making the linebackers jumpy and vulnerable to the Oh Wide Open we saw against UConn.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline 5; +1 for Aigh Secondary!, +1 for Aigh Mike Floyd!, +1 for Aigh The Combination Of The Two!, –1 for Wow Purdue Is Hot Ass, –1 for Dan Dierking YPC: 6.2, –1 for He's White!, +1 for First Road Start For QB, +1 for And The Horrible Things Always Happen At Notre Dame, –1 for …But Usually To The Favorite.)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline 5; –1 for Playing With House Money to Some Extent, +1 for But Yeah This Would Be Well On Path Towards Avoiding Doom, +1 for All Internet Notre Dame Fans Are Basically Reprehensible, +1 for Boy The Next Two Weeks Would Be Relaxing With This Under The Belts, –1 for Fairly Understandable Loss If It Happens, +1 for But If It's Doesn't We Might Have Something Here, +1 for Maybe They'll Hire Weis In Three Years If Kelly Does Poorly)

Loss will cause me to... spend three weeks attempting to ignore grumblers until we get more information.

Win will cause me to... definitely not say anything about the Outback Bowl.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Oh, why the hell does this section exist? I don't know. I don't know what will happen, either.

I think Notre Dame can force Michigan into two or three deep coverage and exploit that, I think Obi Ezeh is going to be a key player with Notre Dame running it down his throat a lot from spread formations, I think Michigan's best hope to kill drives is to blitz so those tackles don't have help against Mouton and Roh but that inescapably exposes Kovacs to God knows what. I can see Crist whiffing on some key passes and either fumbling or tossing an interception when he gets pressure. I can also see the Mike Floyd show.

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame's performance against a hacked-together bunch of third-string scrubs, converted offensive linemen clearly unsuited for their positions, and a cluelessly arrogant quarterback bodes well for Michigan's ability to run all over them. Once that's established, Robinson's reads get considerably easier and the offense goes right down the field.

I think I'm flipping my position on this after looking more closely at the ND-Purdue game. Total yardage in that game was 350-320, and on review Purdue looks like a team that should be terrible this year, especially if Marve is going to be that guy all year. Is UConn better than Purdue? Almost certainly. Did Michigan disfigure them in terrible ways? Yes. Am I a tiny bit more confident in the reliability of the Michigan offense? Yes. Do I think there's more chance of a turnover when Michigan blitzes Crist than a Notre Dame defense that almost has to sit back? Yes.

So… yeah. I am about to do this. I have no confidence in this prediction.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Denard only, and he again cracks 100 yards and 5 YPC. Completion percentage comes down to 65%.
  • The tailbacks look much better than they did last week, with someone, probably Shaw, breaking a long one due to excessive Denard attention.
  • Michigan wins the turnover battle.
  • Michigan, 31-27.

Comments

DLewis

September 10th, 2010 at 2:10 PM ^

The "Fear/Paranoia Level" and "Desperate Need to Win Level" slay me, without fail, every single week. 

"+1 for Aigh The Combination Of The Two!"

Also, I would have had no problem with Brian had he seriously ended the "Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame" section after the all-caps laughter.  The use of all-caps doesn't signal nervous giggles.  Instead, it signals (to me) confident, doom-stricken belly laughs.

But...Dilithium shall prevail!

Greg McMurtry

September 10th, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^

after watching ND's offensive plays: Purdue's defense is absolutely awful.  No pass rush, terrible in coverage, poor angles, turrible tackling, zero wrap up.  Purdue is a joke of a team defensively (as all I saw was the defense.)  And ND only put up 23 points.  That is reassuring.  Other than that, LOL at 4:17 and 6:49 of the 'ND every play on offense' clip.

zlionsfan

September 10th, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^

The offense was meh, special teams were meh. All in all, exactly what you'd expect from a team that is good enough to win about 3 or 4 games this year ... except that Notre Dame did pretty much the exact opposite of what one would expect in that situation.

Their inability to put the game away despite Purdue's careful avoidance of solid tackles is noteworthy and, IME, a good sign for tomorrow.

The fact that Ryan Kerrigan didn't get blocked so well throughout the game was also a good sign ... Kerrigan is a solid DL, but the rest of the front seven is a far cry from the units that featured guys like Cliff Avril, Akin Ayodele, and Ray Edwards. Pressure from Michigan's front X will no doubt bring up the OMG PANIC PANIC face from Crist.

Purdue offense << Michigan offense, Purdue defense most likely < Michigan defense ... I have more hope now than I would have if ND had won by three or four TDs.

3rdGenerationBlue

September 10th, 2010 at 2:12 PM ^

Couple years ago my wife and I were in Vienna when Michigan played ND. She really wanted to go the Vienna Opera - I agreed to go as long as we left in time to see the game at the only place that I could find that was showing the broadcast.....needless to say she was not happy when we turned the corner and she saw the Hooter's Vienna sign.

BTW, is it safe to assume that Brian doesn't think "Irish" is enough of an authority to consult with him for the ND preview?

Yostal

September 10th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^

-1 for Denard's passing continues to be stellar, leading me to cackle "Uh-oh, Happy learned how to putt."

+1 if Denard's passing makes me feel like Shooter McGavin has invaded my Happy Place.

Feat of Clay

September 10th, 2010 at 2:17 PM ^

When evaluating Purdue's opening game performance, shouldn't one bear in mind that their football players, unlike those at other schools, take REAL classes?   Like, real ones.  College level.  In real majors.  Where you have to write IN PEN and everything.

BlockM

September 10th, 2010 at 2:18 PM ^

My question: If you have us scoring fewer points than last year, one of the following must be true: our offense is worse or their defense is better. Care to elaborate on which it is?

jmscher

September 10th, 2010 at 2:26 PM ^

Our offense was dominant and we only put 31 up, largely because we killed the clock to amazing effect and kept the D on the sidelines, good lord willing we can run the ball like that again and Floyd and co. spend a lot of time watching and very little time hurting us.

Greg McMurtry

September 10th, 2010 at 2:29 PM ^

UM took a long time off the clock to score last week.  That with the (potential for) rain and an improved ND defense should limit the scoring a bit.  However, I feel like ND's offense is worse than last year, losing Jimmah and Tate.  As much as I loathe Jimmah, he was very effective for ND last year and Crist is nowhere near that level.

Bodogblog

September 10th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^

+1 for RR's first chance to get a winning record against an opponent we care about.  We desperately need that.

Road game means expect mistakes from Cam and Denard, they must overcome them.  I think Martin Hulk Smashes, Roh and Mouton get there.  Crist will throw a ball right to JT or Rogers.  But he'll probably also hit that gd TE over and over.  Agree with the Shaw busting one.  We'll go deep this time, hope those contacts work Darryl: this is your time now.  Thanks for all the break downs Brian

Six Zero

September 10th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^

Fridays are like a buffet... all the food tastes the same but you can't help yourself from trying out all the different choices.  Plus it's all you can eat, even if you're not that hungry in the first place.

I just wish I'd had more time to read them all.  Oh, and



HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL.

TheOracle6

September 10th, 2010 at 3:25 PM ^

Awesome preview Brian.  Notre Dame has had problems with our spread ever since we implemented it.  I don't see them getting any better at defending it Saturday, especially since Purdue racked up a decent YPC with a converted fullback.  I think we see Hopkins and Cox in a couple times, and I think RR opens the playbook a little more so then he did against the Huskies.  We're going to get ours on offense, on defense the key is really just getting consistent pressure on Crist.  Doing so will almost certainly net us a turnover or two.  Our team is hungry and RR has them ready to play.  31-21 Michigan, rain or shine.

Linda in Grand Blanc

September 10th, 2010 at 3:25 PM ^

Little known Linda (in Grand Blanc) fact:

While I was in high school, I once went on a blind date with Tom Hammond.  Believe it or not, he's even creepier at a drive-in than he is in the announcing booth.

Zone Left

September 10th, 2010 at 5:21 PM ^

I'll take the monsoons with our running game.  Anything that makes it harder to throw a 50+ yard bomb to Floyd three times in the game is a win.

BTW, I looked at Crist's stat line from Purdue and basically thought that 4 50+ yard completions to Floyd would be a win if they didn't get anything else.  I'll spot ND 28 points if they A) don't score any more points and B) Michigan gets 30 minutes time of possession.  Is that wrong?

snowcrash

September 10th, 2010 at 5:47 PM ^

UM 31 ND 23. Against Purdue, ND moved the ball ok but usually bogged down in the red zone. Our defense is set up to bend but not break. I think both teams score 5 times, but 4 of ours will be TDs while 3 of theirs will be FGs.

Pibby Scott

September 10th, 2010 at 6:42 PM ^

last time it worked so i'm gonna come out and say we bring a whooping to the Irish...and why do I say it....well because I WANT IT TO HAPPEN....

 

we will smash them in their stupid faces and roll.

 

UM 38

 

Notre Dame 17

 

GO BLUE

funkywolve

September 10th, 2010 at 7:05 PM ^

Was the wind as big of a factor in South Bend as it was in AA last saturday?  If so, that might explain why Notre Dame didn't throw to many deep passes.

I think there are two keys - neither of which is really earth shattering.  The first is which defense plays better.  If UM is having trouble with ND's passing game, ND is probably going to score some points.  I'd like to think that ND is going to dominate on the ground.  They might do okay, but the UM pass defense worries me a little more then their run defense at this point.  Likewise, if ND is having issues with Denard, UM is probably going to be scoring some points.

The second one - which QB plays better.  Both are making their second start and it's in a big rivalry game.  Crist has the advantage of playing at home.  He'll probably be a bit more comfortable with one game under his belt, but hopefully the UM defense will be more athletic and better overall then the one he saw against Purdue.  It'll be interesting to see how Denard does in his first road game and how he adjusts to what ND will try to do to stop him in the running and passing game.

NateVolk

September 10th, 2010 at 10:28 PM ^

I don't know about you guys, but reading Brian's analysis of Notre Dame's run defense last week makes me way more confident going into this game.  I didn't realize Purdue was that efficient and that they were so patchwork at Running back and on the line. That is very telling.

SC Wolverine

September 11th, 2010 at 8:27 AM ^

Last week, after reading everything and wringing my hands all week about what we all knew was an important game, I concluded that we were quite a bit better a football team than U Conn and would be able to beat them down pretty easily.  This week I conclude the same.  Brian's objective analyses, while making us cringe in certain areas, shows that we a probably better all around.  Also, let's not forget that this is week 2 in a new system, so ND can be expected to underperform vs. their potential.  All this tells me that turnovers will tell the tale.  If they get an early pick on Denard it could go badly for us.  But if we get some turnovers we should beat them pretty handily.

OneFootIn

September 11th, 2010 at 10:01 AM ^

Ditto on the stomach issues. Why do I have trouble sleeping on Friday night?

Great breakdown, but I don't see enough separation between the two teams (yet) on paper to be anything but nervous as hell. Just like last week. As a result, I think this game goes to the team that gets the emotional edge somehow - a great Denard run or a key stop at just the right time may be the difference today.

Go Blue!