Preview: Northwestern 2015 Comment Count

Brian

EssentialsTeam-celebrate-Cisek-sword-post-IA-12[1]

WHAT Northwestern at Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 3:30 Eastern
October 10th, 2015
THE LINE Michigan –7.5
TELEVISION BTN
TICKETS From $91
PARKING From $20
WEATHER sunny, chilly AM, mid 60s gametime, 0% chance of rain

Picture at right posted in a spirit of genuine love and admiration for Bo Cisek.

Overview

Run Offense vs Northwestern

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Anthony Walker is not to be confused with Antoine

This has been up and down for the Wildcats. They've hampered Stanford and Minnesota (a combined 3.5 YPC after sacks are removed), but both Duke and Ball State gashed the Wildcats for more than five yards a carry, nearing 200 yards each. Duke's output was their best of the year on a per-carry basis; they just rushed for under a yard per carry in a 9-7 win(!) over Boston College. Ball State also just rushed for under a yard per carry against Toledo. They did not win.

So this is very different than Michigan's run D. It's not exactly bad. But it's not amazing. Northwestern is 44th in YPC allowed, and that's after facing the #35, #39, #83, and #109 rush offenses plus an FCS team. That is average performance against an average schedule. (For comparison, Michigan is fifth against #21, #32, #41, #84, and #115. IE: on another level entirely.)

Northwestern has a much more extreme version of the linebacker dichotomy Michigan does. Anthony Walker has been heroic this season, with a typical statline of 18 tackles, 3 TFLs, one baby saved from a burning building, and a PBU. Ace:

MIKE Anthony Walker flew under the radar heading into the season, but it's hard not to notice him now that he's amassed 44 tackles and 8.5 TFLs through five games for one of the most surprisingly strong defenses in the country. While he's a tiny bit undersized at 6'1, 235, he's got great athleticism for an inside linebacker, and his ability to read and react only makes it easier for him to shut down plays in a hurry:

Walker is at his best going sideline to sideline but he can also shed blocks and make plays between the tackles; he's also a solid cover linebacker.

The rest of their linebackers are nowhere near his level; I have seen them make weak tackle attempts in many games, get out of position, etc. After Walker, Northwestern's next two leading tacklers are the starting safeties. Only then do the other starting LBs come. Get Walker blocked and you can get to the secondary.

The Northwestern defensive line is fine. They're solid. They execute their assignments. They have something of a playmaker in Dean Lowry (4.5 TFLs). Ace compared him to Ryan Van Bergen and I think that's on point. I really liked RVB's game, but he's not Joey Bosa or Yannick Ngakoue. I am more optimistic about Michigan's ability to pound out yards against this defense than Ace is; the numbers for the season aren't great, and Minnesota's infinite offensive problems probably inflated the assets of the Northwestern D.

As for Michigan, Steve Lorenz is reporting Michigan should have De'Veon Smith back for this game. I have heard similar; I expect he will be available but maybe not 100% depending on his pain tolerance level.

Smith's projected return is a major boost. Michigan's anger back had his most impressive outing of 2014 in the #M00N game:

He was at his most effective against Northwestern, when he was able to slip through the line and utilize that power and balance to bludgeon the Wildcats.

One particular third and short conversion was whistled dead despite Smith still inching forward with two different Wildcats hanging off him like 300-pound Christmas ornaments.

This is much the same crew he's going up against; if he can duplicate that performance Michigan has gone a long way towards winning.

That is somewhat likely. While Northwestern's taken a step forward on defense, it hasn't shown up too much in the run game; meanwhile this is basically the same Michigan rushing offense with a much better coaching situation. Consistent production is likely.

KEY MATCHUP: DE'VEON SMITH versus THE FLAILING ARMS OF THOSE WHO PLEAD FOR HIM TO STOP HIS BLOODY REIGN OF TERROR

[Hit THE JUMP for a SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE and a SIGN THAT NORTHWESTERN IS ALWAYS THEMSELVES]

Pass Offense vs Northwestern

Northwestern Penn St Football

It's a weird year in the Big Ten, and there's nothing weirder than the fact that Northwestern's secondary could be the best in the conference. Michigan would strenuously dispute that, but non-insane arguments can be had about it. For those of us raised on good old fashioned Northwestern #chaos #brand football this is a disappointment. For Promethean Northwestern fans, a break from having their liver eaten must be nice.

But, yes, they are legit good. Nick Van Hoose and Matthew Harris are the best duo in recent memory for the Wildcats. Ace

[Harris] plays the ball very well in the air. VanHoose is less of a playmaker but is in the receiver's hip pocket so much that he doesn't get thrown at much.

I've watched the Wildcats in three of their games (Stanford, Ball State, and Minnesota) and have been impressed with both guys' ability to stick with their charges. It is not particularly difficult to see them doing so against Michigan wide receivers not named Chesson, and Chesson's had issues with consistency. He is also not at all like Ball State's Jordan Williams, who torched the Wildcats for 133 yards thanks in large part to the fact that he is huge and leaps well for jump balls. Jump balls that Michigan does not throw.

The Northwestern safeties have also impressed as the Wildcats are once again amongst the national leaders in preventing long plays from the opponent. They're 9th in preventing 20 yarders and haven't given up a 40 yard play this year. (Michigan is tied for second in 20 yarders and has one play of 30+, that towards the end of the UNLV game.)

This is a nice combination, and when you add in a super-fast MLB the underneath stuff gets difficult as well. Northwestern's back seven has largely earned its ranking.

Not so good is the pass rush, which has just nine sacks on the year, three of those against Eastern Illinois. Against D-I competition the Wildcats are averaging 1.5 sacks a game; DL Deonte Gibson and Ifeadi Odenigbo lead the way with 2.5 each.

Meanwhile this has been a struggle for Michigan. Jake Rudock has been erratic and mostly bad so far in his Michigan career. He's taken a significant step backwards even from his middling form at Iowa, missing short passes repeatedly and suddenly unable to complete a long pass. Turnovers have made an unwelcome resurgence after he got through the entirety of 2014 with just 5 interceptions.

The light could go on at some point since a lot of the problems are either things that used to be strengths or clearly a result of an unfamiliarity with Michigan's offense. At this point Michigan fans just want mediocre production and no turnovers.

One possible advantage for Michigan will be their tight ends. Northwestern has not faced a team that plays them other than Minnesota and their hopeless broken offense. If Michigan can put someone on Northwestern's shaky-non-Walker LBs profit can be had.

KEY MATCHUP: SAD GHOST JAKE RUDOCK versus I GUESS WE'RE GOING WITH HAPPY PRODUCTIVE IOWA JAKE RUDOCK NO MATTER HOW LUDICROUS THAT SOUNDS

Run Defense vs Northwestern

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Jackson is default Northwestern tailback

Lead back Justin Jackson is in the mold of most Northwestern lead backs: undersized, shifty, not particularly athletic, and more than the sum of his parts. Skip the worthless first minute of this highlight package but do examine the second and third:

Jackson is at his best picking through traffic on the infinite iterations of inside zone that Michigan is about to see; he is a bit like Mike Hart without the power.

Jackson's backed up by a couple guys who are almost exactly like him; Solomon Vault had a spectacular one-handed touchdown catch against Minnesota that replay overturned.

Northwestern can and does run quarterback Clayton Thorson, but since a 42-yard QB draw that scored the only touchdown in the Stanford game he's been pedestrian. Minnesota and Duke bottled him up; he went for 45 yards on 22 carries in those games. Thorson is about as mobile as Jake Rudock; he is a bit bigger. Northwestern mostly runs him to keep defenses honest and occupy defenders when Jackson and company have the ball.

The combine these things and you have an offense that has veritably shredded lower-level competition (5 YPC against Ball State and EIU) and been just good enough against Power 5 teams. The typical Northwestern rushing day has 50 carries and change, rushes for close to 4 yards a pop, and lacks a truly explosive play.

Michigan's brutal defense is never more brutal than when opponents try to run. Occasionally the ball will pop outside the tackles when a linebacker fails to maintain leverage. Every once in a while a DL will get cut or fly up in the wrong gap. All other carries to date have been crushed in the meaty hands of Michigan's DL.

No opponent since Utah has cracked 100 yards on the ground; Michigan is giving up 2.3 yards an attempt. Maryland leads the nation in interceptions and still passed about two thirds of the time against the Wolverines. Michigan's backups would be an upper-echelon Big Ten defensive line. They have done all these things with five and six man boxes.

There are two caveats to the previous two paragraphs. One: starting WDE Mario Ojemudia has been lost for the season. After struggles in space in the opening game Ojemudia was playing very well. His backup, Royce Jenkins-Stone, is a senior who has played pretty well in limited opportunities, but a dropoff is likely.

Two: the sole opponent to rush even semi-competently against Michigan, Utah, did so largely because their QB Travis Wilson went for 57 yards on 11 carries. While Michigan largely shut down a mobile QB the next week, in that game they blew a scrape exchange and let the Beavers rip off a 20-yarder.

Those two events could combine unpleasantly. If Royce Jenkins-Stone is shaky as the option guy in his first start at DE, the very very spread option Northwestern offense could make unexpected headway.

But until I see that, or any team move the ball on the ground effectively, my assumption is that rushing against Michigan is a cordial invitation to second and nine.

KEY MATCHUP: ROYCE JENKINS-STONE and maybe LAWRENCE MARSHALL versus EVERY OPTION TRICK NORTHWESTERN HAS IN ITS BOOK

Pass Defense vs Northwestern

600[1]

If Dan Vitale was a 1970s blaxsplotation star something would have gone very wrong in casting but also he'd star in SUPERBLACK SUPERBACK so that's all fine then

Clayton Thorson is a redshirt freshman who has been largely sheltered from major responsibility. Ace's run/pass-by-down breakdown is stark:

Down Run Pass PA
1st 21 3 1
2nd 15 1 3
3rd 3 12 --

Thorson's scuffling along in his many obvious passing downs, completing 57% on the year for 6.3 YPA. He has not exceeded 128 passing yards against a Power 5 opponent thus far in his career, though his game against Minnesota was reasonably efficient.

Opponent Att Comp Pct. Yards YPA TD Int
Stanford 25 12 48 105 4.2 0 0
@ Duke 23 9 39.1 70 3 0 2
Minnesota 19 14 73.7 128 6.7 0 0

6.7 YPA against a kind-of-good defense (Minnesota has been bludgeoned by injuries) is decent. 9.1 yards a completion indicates how Thorson acquired the majority of those yards: dinking and dunking. One wide receiver, the steady and uninspiring Christian Jones, has more than six catches. WRs have been targeted 59 times; tailbacks (including SUPERBACKS(!)) have been targeted 46. Northwestern has only given up four sacks, and that's not because they've got a lights-out line in pass protection. Ace:

The line looked okay in pass protection; the quick-passing scheme helped them a lot. The right tackle got beat by Theiren Cockran for a sack and another quick pressure—he looked pretty vulnerable. The rest held their own, though the degree of difficulty was low.

It will be interesting to see how Michigan treats SUPERBACK(!) Dan Vitale. Vitale is an excellent and frequently deployed receiver; his 100 yards receiving came in big game-saving chunks against Ball State. He leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yardage. He is also a fullback. Michigan has generally responded to three-wide formations with a nickel package and will continue that; I bet we see a lot of safeties drawing man coverage against him.

Other than Jones—a possession guy who will catch some hitches and slants and the like—there's not much data on the Northwestern receiving corps. Rutgers transfer Miles Shuler has done little this year but will be a guy to watch in the flats and on the horizontal double move routes that have given Peppers some trouble this year. Shuler returned a punt 65 yards against Minnesota to set up Northwestern's first touchdown and was on the end of Northwestern's sole big passing play against the Cardinal. He has some talent, but as a slot receiver in an offense that's allergic to throwing over the middle he hasn't been used much.

Where are the screens, you ask? They have been rare because many teams are pressing the Northwestern receivers. Stanford did; Minnesota mostly did. Michigan will follow suit, forcing Thorson to get it at least a little downfield if he's going to add to his passing stats.

This matchup leans heavily in Michigan's favor but the many quick slants Maryland found profitable could frustrate if Michigan does not adapt to remove them. Those are the short quick hitters that have allowed Northwestern to move the ball when they have in fact done that; Michigan showed itself slightly vulnerable there.

One other thing of note: if Michigan does end up in the redzone, they are likely to have an advantage. When the field constricts, NW freezes up; Thorson is not reliable in that department.

KEY MATCHUPMICHIGAN'S UNDERNEATH COVERAGE against YOU GET A HITCH and YOU GET A HITCH and YOU GET A HITCH and BEEEEEEEEEEES

Special Teams

Michigan projects to have an advantage in the field position battle.

Northwestern kicker Jack Mitchell is middling. He hit a 49 yarder against Stanford but it's been mostly chip shots since, and he's missed three of those plus a PAT. He is not their kickoff guy; said guy is really struggling with just 6 touchbacks in 28 attempts and lots of kickoffs from the 35 that look like this:

vlcsnap-2015-10-08-13h55m06s406_1024

That is not an attempt to pop it up just in front of the goal line and swarm for the 5 or 10 yards it gets you. Also that was with the wind.

With a 39 yard average, Punter Hunter Niswander is also struggling. He's only got one touchback, but he's also only put four inside the 20—just about all of those punts are Niswander trying to kick it as far as he can and coming up with 39 yards or so. He has been very good at preventing returns—opponents have 5 for negative 8 yards this year. That tends to happen when you are punting it short.

The Wildcat return units have been one 65-yard Miles Shuler punt return last week and an incredibly important Solomon Vault KO TD against Duke and subpar otherwise. This still adds up to very good, but Michigan is all of a sudden much much better in coverage for some reason.

Michigan's end of this is tantalizing if they can just get a return with Jabrill Peppers, who is chomping at the bit for opportunities. K Kenny Allen is still a bit of a question mark but has ben perfect from inside 40 so far in his career; Blake O'Neill has been masterful aside from a shank or two. He has 11 punts inside the 20 and probably a half-dozen inside the five without a touchback.

KEY MATCHUP: MATE PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE BIG STICKS NO WORRIES

Intangibles

Give Me Some Sugar Babe[1]

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Michigan's having trouble containing a read option.
  • Sad ghost passes to sad ghost receivers prevent YAC or touchdowns.
  • Targeting issues let unblocked guys show up into otherwise successful runs.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Michigan is blowing the NW DL off the ball.
  • Michigan finally hits a deep ball.
  • Blake O'Neill is punting from the 40.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 6 (Baseline 5; +1 It Me, They Us, +1 for Sad Ghost Rudock, -1 for Meaningful Special Teams Advantage In A Field Position Game, +1 for They Did Crush Stanford's Offense, –1 for The Defenses, While Superficially Similar, Aren't That Close When You Look At The Stats, –1 for How Are They Getting In The Endzone, +1 for This Is Michigan-Northwestern, This Is Chaos)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline 5; +1 for Hyarrr There Be Validation In Beating A Top 15 Team, +1 for Stakes! There Are Now Stakes!, +1 for Let's Keep The Harbauneymoon Going WOO I CAN HARMANTAEAU ANYTHING, +1 for The Intoxicating Scent Of An Elite Defense Will Evaporate If A Loss Is Placed Upon Our Heads, –1 for I Mean We Kind Of Owe Them A Dumb Win, +1 for Spent Most Of This Week Petting The Computer Screen While Looking At Various Statistical Rankings And Purring Excellent And It Was A Good Time)

Loss will cause me to... board up the windows, the Juggalo hurricane is about to hit town (and leave at halftime)

Win will cause me to... LET ME FIND THAT SWIRLING VORTEX OF BRAHS AND PUNCH IT IN ITS AMORPHOUS FACE BRAH

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

This is bad news for Northwestern's offense. Michigan has given up one play of more than 20 yards this year, that a late heave by UNLV's Blake Decker. Northwestern's red zone offense is dismal, currently 127th in TD percentage. A Northwestern touchdown would be something of a surprise. Two would be a shock.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan can attempt a boring dinosaur offense approach and expect a reasonable amount of success—enough to move the ball and pin the opponent back with their punting advantage, and eventually that will turn into points. I expect Harbaugh will have a couple things Northwestern hasn't seen and they'll hit some chunk plays as a result.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Northwestern exceeds 105 yards of offense, but not 200.
  • Combined first down passes further than ten yards downfield < 8
  • Michigan runs 75% of the time
  • Michigan, 18-0

Comments

Asgardian

October 9th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^

*All Ranks out of 128 teams*

NU's Rushing:

They are 14th in Rushing Yards per Game.

 

However, they are a VERY run heavy team, rushing on 71% of their plays this season.

Football Outsiders attempts to adjust this for down & distance (Adj. Run Pct.), and comes up with NU as the 9th most run heavy team in the country this year.

They are also a VERY hurry up team, running 79.8 plays per game.

Football Outsiders attempts to adjust plays per game for Run/Pass mix, and comes up with Northwestern as the 7th most Up Tempo team in the country.  I'm not sure they adjust for the defense's ability to get the ball back quickly, so this may be a tad exaggerated.

 

NU's Yards per Rush of 4.4 is just average (65th).

Football Outsiders' S&P+ Rushing, has them ranked as 85th best rushing attack.  I assume this is worse than their Yards per Rush rank because 1) Their Scoring Offense is poor (100th in Points per Game) and 2) They are running the ball a lot on "Passing Downs", making it easier to pick up yardage (defense is playing pass to protect the first down) and lowering what FO considers the overall "success rate" of those plays.

 

Sources: 

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/23

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

Asgardian

October 9th, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/10/8/9469747/michigan-wol…

Note the formation on the first play, we are in Dime, w/ Ojemudia lined up like a MIKE (to blitz).  I wonder if we'll do something similar on 3rd downs (when NW likes to Pass).  We could possibly leave Joe Bolden on the field as "Buck/Mike" and take RJS off.  Sort of a 3-2-6.

 

EGD

October 9th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^

Man, I know we just went 5-7 last year and we are all happy to have Harbaugh and be relevant again and Northwestern is a legit team ranked #13 and all and if we could just win I would so take it......but I really want that third consecutive shutout.  Go D, make it happen!

Eberwhite82

October 9th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^

The history of this series is not one of chaos. It is one in which the Wolverines kick the crap out of NW. Up until 92, MI won every match-up going back to the mid-60s. The overall record is 56-15-2.

Yes, recently, as the program post-Bo slowly lurched to its 2014 self, there have been glitches. BUT, we're still talking about a 12-4 record  since 1995.

The 97 team beat NW 23-6. I'm going with that scoreline for Saturday. We will wear them down with the run, stifle their offense and beat them in the field possession game. Won't be exciting... We will all be excited.

(I'm done using the last 4 or 5 years to predict how MI will perform this season. Night and day. Yes, anything can happen, but under this coaching staff EVERYTHING doesn't happen... there is no more chaos as it relates to MI football. Those days are over.)

ST3

October 9th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^

Sometimes the story line for a game is so obvious after the fact that we wonder why we couldn't see it ahead of time. Here, we've got a 5th year senior QB playing at home against a frosh QB making a road start. Eventually, Rudock has to hit on one or more deep balls. Tomorrow is the day. Go Blue.

EDIT: on a personal note, today is my first day wearing pants in a week. I don't like it at all. Pants free is the way to be.

TomJ

October 9th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^

NW's kickoffs have been crappy and short, so I see Peppers having opportunities to finally break one big.

Actaully, after reconsideraton let me revise: a single opportunity to break one big. I don't think NW will be doing a lot of kicking off.

skurnie

October 9th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^

Last year's M00N contest, as I said at the time, was the dumbest football game I have ever seen. By a long shot. I expect tomorrow's to be much, much better. 

skurnie

October 9th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

I went back and looked at my Facebook from that day to see what I wrote:

 

"Brb gonna go huff some gas and get ready for the second half. Between the beer and the gas I probably lost like 25 brain cells. Watching that game? 2000, easily. Dumbest game I've ever watched"

badgerine

October 9th, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^

It seems I don't have the ability to post on the forum, so I'll ask here. How do I find out what radio station airs the game? I'll be driving in the Philly area for the second half to pick up the parents from the airport. Does anyone know the local station to tune to on AM or FM?

Pepto Bismol

October 9th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

Trying to temper my optimism - did anybody watch the Stanford-NW game and are there any parallels to be drawn from that?

In reading the weekly breakdowns, a common refrain seems to be that Harbaugh's brand of power football is a rarity in this day and age that most defenses are unfamiliar with.  While I'm sure there are subtle differences between Shaw's Stanford and Michigan, the core philosophies seem the same.  Northwestern is the first defense we'll see with 2015 experience against a "Manball" offense.  And by all accounts, it seems they passed the first test with flying colors.

According to the box score, neither team did much on offense, Stanford lost a fumble and threw a pick, Thorson broke one big run, they exchanged field goals and that's that.  NW over Stanford by 10.

I just find it a little strange that we keep looking at only the Minnesota game and say "Sure NW's defense is decent, but Minny blows".  Well, screw Minnesota.  Stanford's offense has averaged better than 42 points against their other 4 opponents using (what I believe to be) similar offensive principals, but managed just two field goals and 240 yards of offense against this blah NW defense. 

I still have a good feeling about the game, but it just seems odd that we have a blueprint of how NW will defend a power offense, yet nobody seems to give it a second of consideration.

What does Michigan's offense do so well that Stanford (S&P #7 Offense?!) couldn't? 

Eberwhite82

October 9th, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^

To me, Stanford just never seemed comfortable or in any kind of rhythm that day. Absolutely give credit to NW and its D, but I really don't like it when P5 programs play each other first game of the season. It's crazy to me, actually. So many random outliers.

And I'd also say that, again, where we're going to see a MASSIVE change from the last 8 years is the difference is in the game-by-game and half-by-half changes by this coaching staff. They will have schemes on both sides of the ball that NW won't have planned for and THAT is why I don't believe we'll see Chaosball anytime soon.

Low scoring games are inherently nail-biting affairs, especially when you can't rely on your QB to get big chunks if something whacky happens in the 4Q. I just don't have a sense that NW has athletes that that special they can turn this game in their favor.

Pepto Bismol

October 9th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

Definitely could be first-game jitters/rust.  Plus it was a road game.  And a Noon game at that (if you subscribe to the "West Coast Teams Stink in the Morning" theory).

Someone else quoted Fitzgerald saying it's an advantage to Michigan for Harbaugh to get a look at how NW will line up defensively.  Who knows, I guess.

Stanford's just been rolling people offensively, and these little purple guys pulled the plug.  We'll see.  In Harbs I Trust.

Pepto Bismol

October 9th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

"Meh, Stanford just stunk in that one game before lighting every other opponent up like a Christmas tree. It definitely had nothing to do with Northwestern's D." 

What are you basing this on?  Did Stanford forget to football that day?

(Bonus points for implying #5 Utah is now afraid to play a team they already beat.)

 

AZBlue

October 9th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^

I watched much of it and Hogan looked awful in the game, missing easy short-to-mid throws by a wide margin aka not making it to the receiver. Not sure why - he has looked "normal" since that game.

Bertello NC

October 9th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^

I agree. Add in the fact that Stanford could have been overlooking NW just a little. Or not expecting that NW would have some playmakers. I watched a good portion of that game and it seemed like Stanford was just out of it. They weren't firing off the ball like usual. Not ready or psyched to play and NW capitalized on it. That's what I took from it anyway.

wahooverine

October 9th, 2015 at 4:34 PM ^

All true but Harbaugh has benefit of 4 weeks of tape. He's ID'ed the chinks in the armor of NW's defense and adjusted his gameplan accordingly.  NW is good, but I also I think that Stanford just had a bad day on the road to open the season and would love to play that game again.

snowcrash

October 9th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^

We'll probably have a bunch of drives that get a first down or two and then bog down. The two that start furthest from our own end zone end up being FGs. NW's scoring drive will also be fairly short.

BlueMan80

October 9th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

I suspect we'll be picking off errant passes by Thorson.  He's a redshirt freshman and really hasn't had a steady diet of "in your face" this season.  After 3 crazy and close games the last 3 years, this one feels like it won't be so close and with some turnovers, we could score over 30.  Can't wait!

markusr2007

October 9th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^

9 YPC vs. Northwestern in their loss, and was Stanford's leading receiver in that game.

The reason Stanford lost at Northwestern can probably be summarized like this:

  • 9 a.m. start, maybe??
  • Shitty Stanford field position all game long
  • 3 for 15 on 3rd Down
  • 2 Stanford turnovers: Fumble at Stanford 38, then an INT at NW 5 yard line w/ 2 min left.
  • Poor Stanford Run Defense all game long, allowing 4.2 YPC and 225 yrds (including 42 yrd TD run by Thorsen)

Stanford punted 7 times after:

1: Pass INC on 3rd and 14 to go at own 29

2: Hogan sacked on 3rd and 9 to go at own 31

3: Run FAIL on 3rd and 13 at NW 47

4: Pass INC on 3rd and 5 at own 36

5: Pass INC on 3rd and 5 at NW 37

6: Pass INC on 3rd and 14 at own 37

7: Pass INC on 3rd and 6 at own 24

 

Michigan should win this game, but I doubt very much it will be as decisive as the last two games.  This is because Northwestern's defense is in no way an Oregon State or Maryland.

Michigan's offense is simply too accident prone against average to good defenses. Turnovers and poor running attack cost Michigan the game against Utah. 

Eventually Rudock's erratic play and accuracy issues will cease. Just probably not this week.

Michigan 21, Northwestern 9

 

spigmoni

October 9th, 2015 at 7:57 PM ^

This is a great writeup.  Thank you.  I hadn't gotten around to watching the Stanford Northwestern game this week.  

That said, I do believe we have a much better than Stanford, no?  On offense, we just gotta avoid turnovers, turnovers would be costly in a game I imagine that will be dicated by field position and defense.  

WolverineRage

October 9th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^

I believe Michigan should and will win but its at like a 60%.  The other 40% is reminded of all the goofiness that surrounds this game, the fact that MSU is in next week and, lets be honest, its been a while since faith in this team hasn't resulted in a gut punch at some point. during the season.

 

That being said, there is just a different aura around this team.  That defense has rightly earned swagger and I'm legitimately looking forward to a game that could very well end 14-3 or something like that.

A2D2

October 9th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^

On one hand, BYU and Maryland may not have been abnormal games after all.  If that's the case, then 21-7 would be a real butt-kicking by the Men in Blue.

HOWEVER

On the other hand, when has a UM/NU game been fun at all in the last few years?  This could very well be another mind-numbing, sleep-inducing 10-9 game all over again, with two defenses outclassing two poop-head offenses. 

Oh Screw That.  I'm going 35-0 Michigan.

 

gwkrlghl

October 9th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^

The only things that really worries me is that losing Ojemudia might make the edge susceptible and Rudock potentially being a turnover machine. Otherwise this just looks like a decisive Michigan win. Northwestern's offense is turrible and will be thoroughly crushed unless Pat Fitzgerald has been hiding some kind of offensive genius.

I really think special teams will be what opens it up initially. The match-up there between punters and returners seems to heavily favor Michigan.

I'm gonna say Rudock throws one terrible pick that Northwestern converts into a TD. Otherwise they die in surprisingly convincing fashion ala BYU

Michigan 36-7