Preview: Nebraska Comment Count

Brian

Previously here: ACE FFFF! Blue Seoul scouts the OSU-Nebraska game and compares Martinez, Miller, and Denard.

Other stuff: MVictors on Nebraska's 1911 hospitality. Know Your Foe. Who are you? No seriously, who are you?

Previews from: BWS and MNBN. The Nebraska beatwriter says you need to force Martinez to pass. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD SAY SOMETHING INTERESTING.

herbie-lilred_2008[1]Essentials

WHAT Michigan vs Nebraska
WHERE Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor MI
WHEN Noon Eastern, November 19th 2011
THE LINE Michigan –3.5
TELEVISION National on ESPN
WEATHER mid 40s, cloudy, 10% chance of rain, moderate wind

Why have one mascot when you can have two on a tandem bike? OH NO DAVE BRANDON HAD AN IDEA

Run Offense vs. Nebraska

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Lavonte David likes the letter X

One week after Michigan turned in a poor outing against an Iowa run defense currently struggling to get its nose above average (thus causing all Michigan fans to PANIC about the previously-taken-for-granted running game), they kicked off the Illinois game by marching 80 yards in four plays against a top ten defense. By the end of the game they'd put up the best numbers anyone had against the Illini:

Opponent Att Yds YPC TD Rk
ASU 28 129 4.6 1 70
NW 47 186 4.0 1 35
Indiana 36 135 3.8 1 54
OSU 46 237 5.2 1 23
Purdue 40 140 3.5 1 44
PSU 36 137 3.8 1 55
Michigan 44 243 5.5 3 11

How did this happen? Michigan went from a 50-50 split between the shotgun and under center to nearly 80-20. In the UFR yesterday I calculated a gap of almost 2 YPC between the two, with shotgun averaging 5.8 YPC and under center 3.9. The numbers above disagree slightly: remove the under center runs and you get a smoooooooth 6.0 YPC.

If it wasn't blindingly obvious before—no. It was blindingly obvious before and is now even more blindingly obvious. Michigan has two run games. They are Oregon from the shotgun and Akron from under center.

As for the opponent, you'd think a team that practices against Taylor Martinez and has an undersized lightning bolt of a weakside linebacker would have disproportionately good performances against mobile quarterbacks, but that is not the case:

Head coach Bo Pelini's defenses have thrived against pocket passers. Against dual-threat quarterbacks, the results aren't nearly as good. In both of Nebraska's losses this season, a run-pass threat at quarterback did much of the damage. So facing the most electric dual-threat player that college football has seen since Michael Vick (i.e. Denard Robinson) presents an enormous challenge.

Survey says: yeah, but it's not quite the blowout you'd think from the above. In seven games against BCS opponents Nebraska's faced two pro-style statues, two passing-oriented scrambly types, two out-and-out dual threats, and a crazy melange from Northwestern. Results ordered by total yards above or below season average:

Opponent Style QB YPA YPC Points YDS Avg Delta
OSU Hybrid Dual 11.9* 6.1 27 351 318 33
Washington Hybrid Scrambly 6.8 4.8 38 420 395 25
NW Spread Dual 10.1 4.2 28 468 445 23
PSU Pro Statue 5.9 4.1 14 365 358 7
Wisconsin Pro Scrambly 10.9 5.3 48 486 499 -13
Minnesota Spread Dual 6.8 3.7 14 254 299 -45
MSU Pro Statue 2.1 4.7 3 187 375 -188

*[YPA based on Miller's production, not Bauserman going 1 of 10. Using Bauserstats is ridiculous.]

Yards are a noisy stat but the overall picture painted is a team that has difficulty defending the pass when they are stretched or busy defending the run. Mobile quarterbacks have had mixed success when actually probing on the ground. Miller averaged 9.1 yards a carry; Persa and Colter combined for 4.2; MarQueis Gray had just 3.9.

The run games that seem to work best are the sort that pound between the tackles. OSU still does this with aplomb. Wisconsin is Wisconsin. Washington has the tough interior running of Chris Polk, and MSU is MSU. Penn State may not have done so hot but they are Penn State and the thing that leaps out from that chart above is how Nebraska is so not Illinois.

They weren't even when they had Jared Crick; now that he's laid up with an injury their defensive tackle rotation is like Michigan's… with less quality at the top and depth. This is from the immediate aftermath of Penn State:

The defensive line is beat up too. Of course All-American Jared Crick is out for the season and Thaddeus Randle has missed the last couple of games.

[Chase] Rome, who missed the game against Northwestern with a groin injury, was able to play enough to give Terrence Moore and Baker Steinkuhler a break every now and then.

“We don’t have a lot of depth right now,” Rome said. “At least I can contribute and give the other guys some rest when they needed it. I thought it was a good system with how it worked out, especially with it being my first time out since being injured.”

Moore and Steinkuhler aren't Crick, or anything approximating him. They've combined for just four TFLs. Will Heininger's managed that by himself.

The bulk of the tackling and playmaking comes from WLB lightning bolt Lavonte David—think Brandin Hawthorne except really good—and MLB Will Compton. There will be gaps in the line; getting hats on second level dudes will make the difference between a pretty good and a very good day.

Key Matchup: Michigan versus the dirty pictures the I-Form has of them. This is actually another matchup where it seems possible Michigan will have some success lining up and running straight at the Huskers, what with their undersized LBs and dodgy DT situation. That worked out to the tune of 3.6 yards per Fitz carry against Iowa. Don't take the cheese.

Pass Offense vs. Nebraska

Alfonzo Dennard South Dakota State v Nebraska pnenSInGLi0l[1]

Alfonzo Dennard and some guy who is not good

Michigan took one look at this matchup in the swirling winds of Memorial Stadium and decided to pass on passing, a decision that worked out just fine. They're not likely to do the same against a less intimidating Cornhusker defense. Nebraska enters the game 86th in sacks and 29th in pass efficiency defense. While the latter number isn't far off that put up by the Illini, the former is a huge step back from Whitney Mercilus and the blitz-mad Vic Koening. When Michigan drops to pass this will be closer to Iowa than Illinois.

Nebraska's YPA ceded can be found above; the place it seems Nebraska struggles is when they have to defend with an extra guy because the quarterback is a threat or they are playing Wisconsin. (Russell Wilson's four carries had little to do with the gameplan, but Wisconsin is Wisconsin.) Play action appears to be the death knell, what with 81-yard Kain-Colter-to-Jeremy-Ebert touchdowns popping up in box scores. I mean, holy terrible safety play, Batman.

This makes the lack of the damn I-Form even more imperative since Nebraska's weaknesses multiply like badgers once you force a safety into the box or make them defend both run and pass. They never want to do this. FFFF:

You know how Iowa does the whole cover 2 zone thing constantly? Nebraska is their cover 2 man counterpart, pretty much doing the same thing on every play and relying on their defensive talent to make plays. Unfortunately, the Huskers lost their All-American DT, Jared Crick, and now only have three healthy scholarship players on the interior of their D-line. Their corners are very good in coverage, but the safeties looked very susceptible to deep throws over the middle, especially off play-action, and the line just can't generate any pass rush.

Dollars to donuts this is because the Huskers have one asskicking cornerback and not much else in the secondary. Alphonzo Dennard has 20 tackles this year… and five PBUs. That is the statistical profile of a totally awesome cornerback. Michigan is going to avoid him like everyone else. This should hurt them less than most teams because they have a deep stable of eh receivers with no particular standout. I guess Hemingway might be less likely to catch a deep one, which, like… when is the last time that happened?

Husker safeties Damion Stafford and Austin Cassidy have racked up a lot of tackles but those big flashy YPA marks above are their doing. Stafford is a big hitter fresh out of JUCO; Cassidy appears to be a former walk-on who emerged as a starter halfway through last year. Last year's Michigan offense would be good for some Worst Waldo plays against this pair—finding some in this year's offense is up to Borges.

There's only one guy Michigan has to watch for in pass protection: end Cameron Meredith. He's got five sacks. No other Husker has more than two.

Key Matchup: Denard (and possible lingering hand issues) versus the usual array of WTF throws and decisions. He's been better in the Big Ten season and should have time to survey. I think he'll be okay as long as the hand is.

Run Defense vs. Nebraska

rex-burkhead-p1[1]W Kentucky Nebraska Football

Sometimes Nebraska uses the wildcat… but when?

Illinois brought a rep for using a lot of option. They left having deployed it once, and not well:

Nebraska will not do the same thing. After the disastrous Callahan years they have restored sanity to college football by reverting to an option-based system featuring a terrifyingly fast quarterback who throws like a duck. Yea, and all was right in the world again.

Nebraska's option is of the spread, modern variety but it's still option. They do all the spread 'n' shred stuff you've seen Michigan run the last few years but their blocking is more heavily focused on POWER than Rodriguez; unlike Michigan their POWER is actually fairly POWERFUL instead of AMY GRANT HIT WITH A TRANQUILIZER DART. They'll run triple option. They'll run the inverted veer and use the back to the outside a a pitch guy. They'll run in your face with POWER from the pistol. They have a diverse and scary run offense that is totally going to option off some of Michigan's baby-faced youth on the edges.

Probably, anyway. Despite all the blingy option plays, Taylor Martinez's season has taken a decidedly Denard-like path:

He hasn't rushed for more than 60 yards since the Ohio State game and his yards per carry has dropped to 3.85 from 6.68 YPC in September. Nebraska fans will take that trade. Martinez is learning how to throw. He won't forget how to run. The threat of his speed is enough on its own.

Michigan fans will be violently split on that trade, because they are violently split on all things. If Martinez averages 3.85 YPC on Michigan I thi nk Michigan wins, though. That's because Martinez is a relative home-run hitter. Tailback Rex Burkhead is a gritty tough son of a gun Eckstein, a cerebral bellcow who really takes to coaching and finds his way on the field through his smarts and subtle racism. [ed: This was unclear. Just making a joke about how white RBs are described, not implying that Burkhead is a racist. Fun with ambiguity! Not fun.]

Burkhead is a grinder. His long against real competition this year is 22 yards and he specializes in pounding out 100 yards on 25 carries with a YPC under 5: 121 on 25 carries against PSU, 69(!) on 22 against Northwestern, 130 on 35 against MSU, 119 on 26 against OSU, 96 on 18 against Wisconsin. He managed to edge over 5 YPC against Minnesota and Wisconsin; the former was Minnesota and the latter was a blowout. It's hard to see Nebraska getting anything past Michigan's safeties given the trends in both seasons.

Speaking of those safeties: I expect Michigan to go with a lot of man and three-deep that allows Kovacs to shoot up into the box where he can be the tiny space linebacker that made him a three-time Heisman winner in an alternate universe where open-field tackling is the most coveted thing in a football player. It's either that or hoping Michigan's cornerbacks can be tough on the edge. Not betting on that. The over/under on Kovacs tackles is set at 8.5.

Key Matchup: Youth on the edge funneling to Kovacs. This did not so much happen against Northwestern. It did against Illinois—once. Nebraska will be a stiff, confusing test for the freshmen in the lineup.

Pass Defense vs. Nebraska

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throws like a duck; catches like a duck

One look at Taylor Martinez flapping the ball out to his receivers and you think "Nick Sheridan with legs," and for big hunks of his career that has been true. Unfortunately those hunks have not come recently:

Since [Wisconsin], Martinez is 77-for-122 passing (64.2%) for 865 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. That's a passer rating of 142.18 which, if it was his season total, would place him third in the Big Ten ahead of Michigan State's Kirk Cousins. That's not factoring in drops, which have become a growing problem of late.

WR Kenny Bell said there were "at least four" in the Penn State game. The Minnesota game had at least three that I can remember in the third quarter alone. No matter, the trend is clear. Martinez, as a passer, is playing as good as he's ever played.

There are games with Minnesota and Northwestern in there. As someone who's seen his team's erratic quarterbacks play Minnesota and Northwestern and emerge averaging 10.6 YPA with five TDs and three INTs… eh… maybe it's best not to consider Minnesota and Northwestern. Survey says:

Opponent Att Cmp Yds YPA TD Int
Wash 21 10 155 7.4 2 0
Wisc 22 11 176 8.0 0 3
OSU 22 16 191 8.7 2 1
Minn 23 14 169 7.3 1 0
MSU 13 7 80 6.2 1 1
NW 37 28 289 7.8 2 0
PSU 27 13 143 5.3 0 0

Given the opponents, Martinez is actually backsliding a bit when it comes to YPA. But the thing that jumps off the page is the lack of interceptions. Michigan's had more multi-INT quarters than Martinez has had games.

The key here will be responding to paly action. Martinez has gotten significantly over 20 attempts in two games. In one he was bad, in the other he was playing Northwestern. In all other games Nebraska makes up for the lack of skill at QB by going mostly with play action. (Yes, it is frustrating to watch Nebraska roll the pocket on an option fake and then drop back without getting their QB killed.) Putting Nebraska in situations where they can't effectively do that will end drives. Doing that will probably require defending it when they can.

There's no point focusing on any one Nebraska receiver. They're immensely diverse. Seven players have at least thirteen catches on the year; all save Burkhead have a YPA over ten. Kenny Bell is nominally the top WR with 23 catches for 306 yards. This seems like a situation where having seven receivers means you have none: as mentioned above, drops have been a big problem for the 'Huskers. Michigan may get bailed out a couple times.

I'd expect something similar to the first four games above: few attempts, decent success with those attempts. If Martinez starts pushing into the 30s it will be bad news for UNL.

Key Matchup: Demens and Morgan versus play action drops. The bulk of Nebraska's damage comes in big gaping holes between the linebackers and safeties. I don't think this will go well, but it only has to go well enough.

Special Teams

Massive Nebraska advantage. The Cornhuskers are great on kickoff returns—freshman Ameer Abdullah has a touchdown and a few other impressive returns this year—decent on punts, good at punting, and have hit 16 of 19 field goals this year. FEI's introduced special teams rankings; they're fifth. Michigan is 80th.

Key Matchup: Gibbons you put it through the uprights?

Intangibles

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It's a candy corn hat, you pervs

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Folks on the edge against the option aren't actually there.
  • Michigan lines up under center.
  • Martinez is slinging darts.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Nebraska gets stuck in an obvious passing down. Michigan's okie package gets pressure without providing tons of scrambling lanes when it sends four.
  • Molk and company can pound the shaky interior of the Nebraska DL.
  • Kovacs appears to have cloned himself.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; +1 for Is This The Best Team They've Played? Seriously, +1 for Option Paranoia After Northwestern Game, –1 for But Mattison Heals All, –1 for Their QB Throws Like A Duck, +1 for Our QB Throwing Like A Duck Would be An Improvement, –1 for Boy We Figured Out What To Do Last Game, +1 for Maybe, –1 for Run Defense Weakness In Opponent At Home.)

Desperate need to win level: 7 (Baseline 5; +1 for NYD Lockdown, +1 for I Like Nine And Half Wins And I Cannot Lie, –1 for It's Pretty Much About Next Week, –1 for Keeping The Possibility Of A Sparty No Open Is A Silver Lining To A Loss, +1 for ALAMO REVENGE, +1 for 1997 JUSTICE.)

Loss will cause me to... place way too much importance on beating a 6-5 team next weekend.

Win will cause me to... place way too much importance on beating a 6-5 team next weekend.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Oh, hell. I just know the defense is going to have a comedown. I just… I look at the opposing offense and think "okay, they'll get some yards but are they going to bust anything long?" I've been predicting this will happen in the option game all week but now that I've look at the numbers, they just don't have it. Burkhead tops out at 20 yards and Martinez hasn't had anything, really, since the Ohio State game.

And if Nebraska isn't busting it long, if they're grinding it down the field, how long can they manage that before Michigan's third and short defense rises up and boots them off the field?

On the other side of the ball, as long as Borges makes the obvious conclusion from last week—shotgun forever—Michigan will move the ball. They'll even get some opportunities downfield when the safeties freak out on play action, which they'll have to if Nebraska is intent on running man in a nickel package against Michigan. If they do that it's like crediting Michigan for running the bubble when they don't, and then you could see some fireworks.

This looks like a win, but two things worry. Turnovers, obviously, and then what figures to be a massive hidden yards advantage for the Cornhuskers. It's really easy to see this game show up in "Life on the Margins" after Michigan outgains Nebraska by 150 yards and still loses.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Michigan finally hits a Worst Waldo play.
  • Burkhead averages 4.0 YPC on a zillion carries.
  • Denard has a day that mildly surprises to the positive. 
  • Michigan, 26-20

Comments

Needs

November 18th, 2011 at 2:09 PM ^

Looking at stubhub does not make me optimistic. There are tickets available well below face (starting at $50 for singles and $55 for pairs, when the face was $85) and there are a lot available. Any Nebraska fans who are coming are not going to have a problem finding, or financing, their tix.

The FannMan

November 18th, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^

I am sorry in advance, but the great Red-Out of '09 still fills me with ANGAR.  A rant ensues:

I have never been so pissed off at my fellow Michigan fans as I was at that OSU game.  If you aren't going, sell your tickets to Michigan fans.  Or give them away to Michigan fans who will go.  Hell, there are plenty of dads who would love to take their kids to the big house but can't afford tickets.  Give them your tickets.  Or just leave your damn seats empty.  You already paid for the damn things in April.  The money is gone.  DO NOT SELL YOUR SEATS TO THE ENEMY EVER.  

(BTW - If you were one of those who couldn't be bothered to go to "The Game" in 2009 because the team wasn't good, please look into the mirror.  Then pretend that its not the mirror you're looking into, but eyes of the ghost of Bo.  Then please explain why you decided not to go and why you sold your seats to some OSU fans.  Imaginary Bo ghost does not approve,and your wife thinks you are a loser for talking to yourself in the mirror.  Less importantly, those of us who did go are still pissed.)

I have heard that some southern schools prohibit selling to the enemy.  If people wearing the wrong gear show up in your seats you get reported.  It it happens twice, they pull your tickets.  As a season ticket holder with something to lose, I would be down with this big time.  Those seats are your responsibiliy, make sure they are filled by Michigan fans.  While this policy is good for the fans, players and program, it conflicts with the Pizzaman's deal with Stubb Hub where he gets a piece of every resold ticket.  Maybe one day he will have to explain to Bo's ghost why helping fans sell to the enemy builds the brand.  

Sorry, rant over.  (You were warned.)

 

Needs

November 18th, 2011 at 7:53 PM ^

I thought part of the story for that game in particular had to do with the AD intentionally not selling season tix in advance of the seat widening/ stadium expansion. Thus there were an unusual number of tix on the secondary market, leading to the OSU invasion.

In short, the issue wasnt fans selling their tix to OSU fans, it was the AD, indirectly doing so.

The FannMan

November 18th, 2011 at 8:33 PM ^

I did hear that too. But there is no way that many seats were out there. There were season ticket held seats around me that had buckeyes in them.
<br>
<br>There is enough of a wait list to sell out. The stadium should be all Michigan save for the small strip we have to give away.

markusr2007

November 18th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s both fielded some excellent football teams.

I wish they would have played each other back in those days.  They finally did in 1986, but just one game at a neutral site (Fiesta Bowl).

I always found the Nebraska hate for Oklahoma and Barry Switzer's cheating ways to be very similar to how UM fans viewed OSU's and Woody Hayes, or even Jim Tressel, etc.

Tom Osborne was 6-14 against rivaly Oklahoma between 1972 and 1990.

After the 1980 loss to Oklahoma, Osborne was actually 1-9 against the Sooners.

True, most of Osborne's teams finished 9-2 or 10-1 and were invited to New Year's Day bowl games, but today a coach going 1-9 against a major rival usually results in a pink slip.

 

sheepdog

November 18th, 2011 at 1:30 PM ^

225 yards with 60% completion rate, 2 TD and 0(!) INT

100 yards rushing on 15 carries (yes, he'll break a long one, 1 TD, 0 fumble

Fitz - 125 on 25 carries, 1 TD

 

If we can manage something like this, I will be a happy happy (HAPPY) man.

Wolverine0056

November 18th, 2011 at 1:51 PM ^

I would say that is a pretty reasonable prediction, but I think Denard does have one interception. I don't think it will be a bad overthrow or anything but one that is a bad decision throwing into traffic that gets batted into Nebraska's hands. 

ken725

November 18th, 2011 at 1:39 PM ^

Alphonzo Dennard has 20 tackles this year… and five PBUs. That is the statistical profile of a totally awesome cornerback.

Based on the stats provided by mgoblue.com:

Blake Countess has 23 solo tackles, 11 assists and 6 PBUs.

These number might be inflated because he is being targeted more because he is a true freshman. Even if that is the case, I think he is a "totally awesome cornerback."

GoWings2008

November 18th, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^

a special player to start as a freshman, esp when there are upperclass options.  It takes a very special player to end up with the stats that Countess has.  Granted the secondary isn't in the shape it could be in, and CBs are at a premium right now, but this kid is really good and I'm happy to see him having this success.  

ken725

November 18th, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^

Ya I know that is the point, but I just wanted to see what Blake's numbers looked like.  I guess it would be better to compare how many times teams targeted each corner.  I'm willing to bet Countess has been targeted more. 

Either way, I think Countess is preforming very well given how young and inexperienced he is. 

m1jjb00

November 18th, 2011 at 2:08 PM ^

Pelini replaced his safeties 1/2 way through the season last year because the original starters were poor tacklers.  That's why this year's starters only have 1/2 season of experience from 2010.

uminks

November 19th, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^

I hope the team plays a bit more relaxed, especially the offense. Just go out and have fun!

It is great being 8-2 with a good chance of going 10-2 under coach Hoke's first season.