Preview: Michigan State Comment Count

Tim

msulogo.jpg

The Essentials

WHAT Michigan v. Michigan State
WHERE Crisler Arena (Maize Out)
WHEN 2:00 PM EST

March 5th, 2011
THE LINE Michigan -2.5
TELEVISION CBS (Coverage Map)

This is The Most Important Game Of The Season. No qualifiers necessary. Michigan could be 1-29 - still with a win in Breslin, of course - and this would be The Most Important Game Of The Season still. The fact that tomorrow's winner is likely to make the NCAA Tournament while the loser is likely NIT-bound barring a strong run in Indianapolis... well, I don't have to explain the stakes to you.

I've started this post a hundred times, and frantically erased a couple paragraphs that just didn't seem adequate for the situation. I'm no college basketball fanatic, but this game just feels... bigger. I'm struck with writer's block at the enormity of the moment, much like Brian must have when he started writing Eleven Swans. Nothing I can come up with will seem right.

Beat the Spartans. Sweep the Spartans.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank State Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG% 47 122 M
Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG% 170 161 -
Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO% 16 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO% 253 194 S
Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb% 324 62 SSS
Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb% 54 69 M
Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR 342 144 SS
Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR 35 213 MM
Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD 54 37 S
Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO 54 71 M

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Iowa). You know the characters: Kalin Lucas is putting the team on his back, Durrell Summers is a huge disappointment, Korie Lucious will next hit the court for Iowa State, not MSU.

On the other side of the court, Michigan has been steadily improving since the victory in the Breslin Center, particularly on defense. Tim Hardaway has emerged into a star. Darius Morris is (ugh) the Butterfly. Jordan Morgan is holding his own in the post as a redshirt freshman.

With both teams' post-season hopes hanging in the balance, this should be one of the games of the year. And CBS thinks most of the country would rather see a routine beatdown of a terrible Oregon team! CBS is the anti-Sheen #notwinning.

Elsewhere

Game preview from The Only Colors, and they also break down Big Ten defensive efficiency by each of the Four Factors. David Merritt talks shop with UMHoops. Friday links from UMHoops, including a couple other game previews. UPDATE: Dylan's preview is up.

Bonus Bracketology Rootin'

Since there's a meager slate of games tonight, no dedicated post. You want Harvard to win and Princeton to lose in the Ivy League, so the Crimson can make the Tournament (and stay in the RPI top-50). Both games are at 7.

In the Horizon League, you probably want to cheer against Cleveland State to make the field a little easier for Butler. They'll likely get an at-large, so you don't want the league's auto-bid to go to anyone else.

There are tons of relevant games tomorrow, so look for an early-morning bracketology post.

Predictions

With both teams' tournament lives on the line, I have to sadly side with Tom Izzo, who guaranteed a win Wednesday night (H/T iSportsWeb):

Don't get me wrong, John Beilein is one hell of a coach. But Tom Izzo isn't shabby himself, and he's been doing this a long time at Michigan State. He knows what it takes to get a win, and the NCAA Tournament is the norm in East Lansing. Nothing else is acceptable, and the players and coaches in green all know that.

Durrell Summers will break out of his offensive slump and Kalin Lucas will out-duel Darius Morris at the point guard spot. However, Tim Hardaway and some clutch shooting from the two juniors will keep this a tossup until the very end. Spartans win, 65-64.

Go Blue. Beat. State.

Comments

stmccoy

March 4th, 2011 at 1:51 PM ^

I don't care what network carries this game other than the fact that Gus Johnson should ALWAYS call games like this.  Other than that who cares.  As long as the kids come out firing.  Go Blue. 

Token_sparty

March 4th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^

... is Draymond Green's ankle.  He'll play, but who knows for how long?  By the way, I'll still predict an MSU win, but not as much as if Dancing Bear were 100%.  69-60.  Could be a 20-point blowout if Green can play most of the game.

I will be back here to eat my crow if MSU loses, but I'm highly amused by some of the, er, enthusiasm you Wolverine-lets show.  It's so cute!  

buckeyejonross

March 4th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^

1) Those apartment buildings happen to be my dorm. Lincoln Tower for life.

2) You forgot the tennis courts!

3) You really should see it in the spring when those underground pipes kill the grass, it forms a beautiful line of scorched earth, from the towers to the southeast stadium corner.

4) At least my stadium never had an aluminum siding phase!

MGoBender

March 5th, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^

This debate was amusing.  As someone who was at OSU the other week for just the second time in my life, I'll say this:

The stadium area is a gross, concrete, parking lot, industrial waste land.  The stadium looks like shit from the outside and 40 floor dorm rooms are no way condusive to pimped out rooms with futons and couches.

That said, the RPAC is amazing.

buckeyejonross

March 5th, 2011 at 2:59 PM ^

I think from a strictly visual standpoint Ohio Stadium is gorgeous. The poured concrete, archways, height, routunda, open end, and shape all make it look extremely cool from the outside. The area around it may not have the charm of other stadium plazas, but from a purely stadium perspective, Ohio Stadium is tough to beat. And yes, the RPAC is the greatest thing I've ever been too. It's awesome.

WolvinLA2

March 4th, 2011 at 2:45 PM ^

How is it "reasonable" to predict a 20-point win over a team who is favored and beat you on your own floor? If any post in this thread is unabashed homerism, it's that one.

I think it just makes him sound like a tool. Isn't there an MSU board to post on? I seriously would never register and post on an MSU board. Then again, I have a job.

champswest

March 4th, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^

itself in a position to dictate it's own destiny.  The golden ring is there for them to grab.  Sweep sparty and likely go dancing.  Lose (assuming a fair and square game), go home with noone to blame but yourself.

It is time to grab the golden ring boys!  Go Blue!

BRCE

March 4th, 2011 at 3:05 PM ^

There are homerism picks, and there are defeatism picks. Tim's falls into the latter.

I want us to win this game for SO many reasons. One of them is that a triumph might help temporarily cease this blog's new annoying "Where's the next dong punch coming from?" attitude as well as its inferiority complex about its rivals (MSU basketball and OSU football).

 

Tim

March 4th, 2011 at 4:20 PM ^

There are also realistic picks, based on available evidence, etc. I think my prediction falls into that category, rather than either of yours.

Believe me, I don't want it to happen, but it's my job to be objective, and put feelings aside when making the pick. I just don't think that Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas let Michigan be the team that knocks the Spartans out of the tournament for the first time in god know how long.

WolvinLA2

March 4th, 2011 at 5:17 PM ^

So Izzo and Lucas are sooo good that they won't let us win, but not good enough to beat us by a whole bucket?  Come on Tim, if you truly think it's a toss-up, call it a toss-up.  But if it's you seriously think it's so close that it will come down to a 1 point game and you feel the need to pick a winner, pick the Wolverines.  I know it's your job to be objective, but you don't work for a sports blog, or a basketball blog, you work for a Michigan blog.  Keep that in mind.

kingcrow

March 4th, 2011 at 3:13 PM ^

I saw a poor Michigan State team beat a discombobulated Iowa team the other night.  Even though MSU won by 20, the two teams both played poorly, with MSU playing less poorly.  Michigan is the better team - no question about it.  Michigan 75 - MSU 62.

bronxblue

March 4th, 2011 at 3:25 PM ^

It will be loud in Crisler this weekend - probably as loud and passionate as it has been in over a decade.  For all the talk about MSU's greatness these past couple of years, they probably shouldn't have made it out of the first weekend during last year's NCAA tournament, and the year before they were not some juggernaut.  This year's team has been even less impressive, and hasn't gotten any better throughout the year.  UM winning tomorrow wouldn't be an upset, and that is something we haven't said before.  I'm sure it will be a close game, but I am secretly confident that this game will go UM's way.  I wouldn't be shocked if MSU won, but they have all the pressure and that can play strange games with a team's performance.

UMaD

March 4th, 2011 at 3:31 PM ^

But I'd argue the game at Breslin was probably more meaningful for the season, win or lose tomorrow.

Considering both teams have a strong chanch to make the tournament, even if they lose tomorrow, I'd say you're being a little over-dramatic.  Plus, maybe these teams will play again in the BTT.

But whatever, it's a big game and the atmosphere and buildup is more exciting than we've had in a while and certainly bigger than we expected to see all year.

joeburner82

March 4th, 2011 at 3:50 PM ^

I hope all of the Michigan fans attending the game tomorrow bring their A game.  I know I am  attending a football esque tailgate tomorrow, let's make Crisler loud like it's 1993.

MechEng97

March 4th, 2011 at 11:04 PM ^

I'm heading to my 1st BBall game of the year tomorrow. I'm looking forward the seeing if we can really make it a home court advantage.  I have never been to a basketball game that felt this big... Maize it out...

kylebennett7127

March 4th, 2011 at 4:38 PM ^

After that game I almost punched my 8 month pregnant wife. But that game may help us here. I think we sink some free throws and sink states season. Either team may jump out big but it will be close lower scoring game than prediction