the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
Preview: Michigan State
Filed under:
The Essentials
| WHAT | Michigan v. Michigan State |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena (Maize Out) |
| WHEN |
2:00 PM EST March 5th, 2011 |
| THE LINE | Michigan -2.5 |
| TELEVISION | CBS (Coverage Map) |
This is The Most Important Game Of The Season. No qualifiers necessary. Michigan could be 1-29 - still with a win in Breslin, of course - and this would be The Most Important Game Of The Season still. The fact that tomorrow's winner is likely to make the NCAA Tournament while the loser is likely NIT-bound barring a strong run in Indianapolis... well, I don't have to explain the stakes to you.
I've started this post a hundred times, and frantically erased a couple paragraphs that just didn't seem adequate for the situation. I'm no college basketball fanatic, but this game just feels... bigger. I'm struck with writer's block at the enormity of the moment, much like Brian must have when he started writing Eleven Swans. Nothing I can come up with will seem right.
Beat the Spartans. Sweep the Spartans.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
| Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Michigan Rank | State Rank | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG% | 47 | 122 | M |
| Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG% | 170 | 161 | - |
| Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO% | 16 | 255 | MMM |
| Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO% | 253 | 194 | S |
| Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb% | 324 | 62 | SSS |
| Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb% | 54 | 69 | M |
| Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR | 342 | 144 | SS |
| Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR | 35 | 213 | MM |
| Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD | 54 | 37 | S |
| Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO | 54 | 71 | M |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Iowa). You know the characters: Kalin Lucas is putting the team on his back, Durrell Summers is a huge disappointment, Korie Lucious will next hit the court for Iowa State, not MSU.
On the other side of the court, Michigan has been steadily improving since the victory in the Breslin Center, particularly on defense. Tim Hardaway has emerged into a star. Darius Morris is (ugh) the Butterfly. Jordan Morgan is holding his own in the post as a redshirt freshman.
With both teams' post-season hopes hanging in the balance, this should be one of the games of the year. And CBS thinks most of the country would rather see a routine beatdown of a terrible Oregon team! CBS is the anti-Sheen #notwinning.
Elsewhere
Game preview from The Only Colors, and they also break down Big Ten defensive efficiency by each of the Four Factors. David Merritt talks shop with UMHoops. Friday links from UMHoops, including a couple other game previews. UPDATE: Dylan's preview is up.
Bonus Bracketology Rootin'
Since there's a meager slate of games tonight, no dedicated post. You want Harvard to win and Princeton to lose in the Ivy League, so the Crimson can make the Tournament (and stay in the RPI top-50). Both games are at 7.
In the Horizon League, you probably want to cheer against Cleveland State to make the field a little easier for Butler. They'll likely get an at-large, so you don't want the league's auto-bid to go to anyone else.
There are tons of relevant games tomorrow, so look for an early-morning bracketology post.
Predictions
With both teams' tournament lives on the line, I have to sadly side with Tom Izzo, who guaranteed a win Wednesday night (H/T iSportsWeb):
Don't get me wrong, John Beilein is one hell of a coach. But Tom Izzo isn't shabby himself, and he's been doing this a long time at Michigan State. He knows what it takes to get a win, and the NCAA Tournament is the norm in East Lansing. Nothing else is acceptable, and the players and coaches in green all know that.
Durrell Summers will break out of his offensive slump and Kalin Lucas will out-duel Darius Morris at the point guard spot. However, Tim Hardaway and some clutch shooting from the two juniors will keep this a tossup until the very end. Spartans win, 65-64.
Go Blue. Beat. State.
March 4th, 2011 at 3:22 PM | 
Hey, at least our mascot
Hey, at least our mascot
March 4th, 2011 at 7:16 PM |
Mascot throwdown! My mascot's
Mascot throwdown! My mascot's
Mascot throwdown! My mascot's a tree, but a regal one, with nuts. I win.
"So put 2 on, put 10 on, WHAT DO YOU CARE IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE PAYIN' FOR 'EM!!!!?"
-Doug Heffernan, in regards to Arthur and his stamp needs
March 4th, 2011 at 8:46 PM |
"Nuts"? "Regal"?
"Nuts"? "Regal"?
I hope you like your nuts worthless, poisonous, hairless, and useless. I've been to the Buckeye Grove, and it's more like Sapling Grove if you ask me.
Abort, Retry, Fail?
March 4th, 2011 at 9:12 PM |
IT'S A GLORIOUS PLACE DAMMIT!
IT'S A GLORIOUS PLACE DAMMIT!
IT'S A GLORIOUS PLACE DAMMIT!
"So put 2 on, put 10 on, WHAT DO YOU CARE IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE PAYIN' FOR 'EM!!!!?"
-Doug Heffernan, in regards to Arthur and his stamp needs
March 4th, 2011 at 9:44 PM |
Nothing says "tradition" like
Nothing says "tradition" like
Nothing says "tradition" like a tree grove sandwiched in between a stadium, high-rise concrete apartment buildings, and a parking lot. My favorite feature of the stadium complex, personally, is the exposed steam pipes in the southeast corner.
Abort, Retry, Fail?
March 4th, 2011 at 10:33 PM |
1) Those apartment buildings
1) Those apartment buildings
1) Those apartment buildings happen to be my dorm. Lincoln Tower for life.
2) You forgot the tennis courts!
3) You really should see it in the spring when those underground pipes kill the grass, it forms a beautiful line of scorched earth, from the towers to the southeast stadium corner.
4) At least my stadium never had an aluminum siding phase!
"So put 2 on, put 10 on, WHAT DO YOU CARE IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE PAYIN' FOR 'EM!!!!?"
-Doug Heffernan, in regards to Arthur and his stamp needs
March 4th, 2011 at 11:09 PM |
<rolls eyes, takes another bite of cheese and washes it down with the finest Chardonnay>
At least we had the good taste to improve the weak points of our stadium complex, rather than clinging to them as "advantages." Biggest and best CFB stadium in the country yo.
Abort, Retry, Fail?
March 5th, 2011 at 3:14 AM |
I'll give you biggest.
I'll give you biggest.
I'll give you biggest.
"So put 2 on, put 10 on, WHAT DO YOU CARE IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE PAYIN' FOR 'EM!!!!?"
-Doug Heffernan, in regards to Arthur and his stamp needs
March 5th, 2011 at 11:39 AM |
This debate was amusing. As
This debate was amusing. As
This debate was amusing. As someone who was at OSU the other week for just the second time in my life, I'll say this:
The stadium area is a gross, concrete, parking lot, industrial waste land. The stadium looks like shit from the outside and 40 floor dorm rooms are no way condusive to pimped out rooms with futons and couches.
That said, the RPAC is amazing.
CoE Class of 2007
March 5th, 2011 at 3:59 PM |
I think from a strictly
I think from a strictly
I think from a strictly visual standpoint Ohio Stadium is gorgeous. The poured concrete, archways, height, routunda, open end, and shape all make it look extremely cool from the outside. The area around it may not have the charm of other stadium plazas, but from a purely stadium perspective, Ohio Stadium is tough to beat. And yes, the RPAC is the greatest thing I've ever been too. It's awesome.
"So put 2 on, put 10 on, WHAT DO YOU CARE IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE PAYIN' FOR 'EM!!!!?"
-Doug Heffernan, in regards to Arthur and his stamp needs
March 4th, 2011 at 3:28 PM |
I fixed it for you sparty...
I fixed it for you sparty...
"I will be back here to eat my crow WHEN MSU loses"
HAIL.
"Where's the threat? Oh, it's right here, and it's devouring us alive." -Ace<
March 4th, 2011 at 3:32 PM |
GAHAAAAAAH I WANT TO HATE YOU
GAHAAAAAAH I WANT TO HATE YOU
GAHAAAAAAH I WANT TO HATE YOU SO MUCH. WHY ARE YOU BEING SO REASONABLE
March 4th, 2011 at 3:45 PM |
How is it "reasonable" to
How is it "reasonable" to
How is it "reasonable" to predict a 20-point win over a team who is favored and beat you on your own floor? If any post in this thread is unabashed homerism, it's that one.
I think it just makes him sound like a tool. Isn't there an MSU board to post on? I seriously would never register and post on an MSU board. Then again, I have a job.
March 4th, 2011 at 3:34 PM |
Predicting a Spartan victory
Predicting a Spartan victory
Predicting a Spartan victory is fine, but a 20 point blowout??? A 9 point win with Green not playing much of a game? Have you been following your own team this year? Did you gain confidence from the 20 point beatdown Purdue put on you in Breslin? GTFO
March 4th, 2011 at 3:35 PM |
Short memory
Short memory
How did that 20 point blowout plan work in Breslin?
Now with 100% less South Bend, 100% more Washington DC.
March 5th, 2011 at 12:23 PM |
no blowouts here
no blowouts here
tokenspartyboy. Go get me a beer and rub my feet. I'm going to enjoy this victory. By the way, if you ever need a letter of reference, let me know. That pizza delivery job is only going to get you so far. Sorry that degree in animal husbandry did not pan out for you.
Nobody who ever gave his best regretted it.
March 5th, 2011 at 6:06 PM |
Muppets have played...
Muppets have played...
...and we are waiting.
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
March 4th, 2011 at 3:18 PM |
This is what a rivalry is supposed to feel like!
This is what a rivalry is supposed to feel like!
Unbridled hatred between the teams!
Competitive - Who really knows who is going to win!
High stakes!
GO BLUE!
March 4th, 2011 at 3:30 PM |
What I am most happy about is that this UM team has put
What I am most happy about is that this UM team has put
itself in a position to dictate it's own destiny. The golden ring is there for them to grab. Sweep sparty and likely go dancing. Lose (assuming a fair and square game), go home with noone to blame but yourself.
It is time to grab the golden ring boys! Go Blue!
"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack
March 4th, 2011 at 3:33 PM |
U-M in a close one
U-M in a close one
Either a last-second shot by MSU clanks off the rim, or we bank a last-second shot in - and we called "glass."
Michigan Resurgent? Michigan Resurgent!
The beatings will continue until the uniforms improve!
March 4th, 2011 at 3:40 PM |
Prediction
Prediction
is wise. The gods are watching.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:01 PM |
prediction
prediction
Tim has been very close with his game predictions. This time i hope he is wrong.Good reading anyway. go blue beat state
March 4th, 2011 at 5:20 PM |
There are also realistic
There are also realistic
There are also realistic picks, based on available evidence, etc. I think my prediction falls into that category, rather than either of yours.
Believe me, I don't want it to happen, but it's my job to be objective, and put feelings aside when making the pick. I just don't think that Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas let Michigan be the team that knocks the Spartans out of the tournament for the first time in god know how long.
March 4th, 2011 at 5:52 PM |
We won't be!
We won't be!
When we win, MSU won't be out of the tourney until they lose in the first round of the BTT!!!!!
March 4th, 2011 at 6:17 PM |
So Izzo and Lucas are sooo
So Izzo and Lucas are sooo
So Izzo and Lucas are sooo good that they won't let us win, but not good enough to beat us by a whole bucket? Come on Tim, if you truly think it's a toss-up, call it a toss-up. But if it's you seriously think it's so close that it will come down to a 1 point game and you feel the need to pick a winner, pick the Wolverines. I know it's your job to be objective, but you don't work for a sports blog, or a basketball blog, you work for a Michigan blog. Keep that in mind.
March 4th, 2011 at 8:08 PM |
Keep in mind the strictures
Keep in mind the strictures
Keep in mind the strictures of sportswriting are stupid.
Galileo was also chastised.
March 5th, 2011 at 1:01 AM |
I agree
I agree
I agree I thought it was pretty weak of Tim to pick MSU winning by a point. If your going to do that Tim why not just pick the Wolverines? If you think states going to win then why not have them win by 4 or 5 or 6, a 1 point victory is kind of a cop out.
HAIL TO THE VICTORS VALIANT, HAIL TO THE CONQUERING HEROES!
March 4th, 2011 at 6:23 PM |
C'mon Tim, give the people
C'mon Tim, give the people
C'mon Tim, give the people what they want!
Abort, Retry, Fail?
March 4th, 2011 at 4:09 PM |
Not nationally televised?
Not nationally televised?
Is the game really not on nationally?? Noooooooo (I live in TX). Where do you find the cbs coverage map?
March 4th, 2011 at 5:14 PM |
posted from iPhone
posted from iPhone
Online CBS stream, or 728 on directv
COE 2003
March 4th, 2011 at 4:13 PM |
Prediction
Prediction
I saw a poor Michigan State team beat a discombobulated Iowa team the other night. Even though MSU won by 20, the two teams both played poorly, with MSU playing less poorly. Michigan is the better team - no question about it. Michigan 75 - MSU 62.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:14 PM |
I don't think anything can
I don't think anything can
I don't think anything can compare to Eleven Swans. Still, I have that "this is a huge game that we could win" feeling that I don't often get.
Photography Facebook Page. Lots of Michigan sports photos. And planes, lots of planes:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Barron-Photography/13379
March 4th, 2011 at 4:25 PM |
It will be loud in Crisler
It will be loud in Crisler
It will be loud in Crisler this weekend - probably as loud and passionate as it has been in over a decade. For all the talk about MSU's greatness these past couple of years, they probably shouldn't have made it out of the first weekend during last year's NCAA tournament, and the year before they were not some juggernaut. This year's team has been even less impressive, and hasn't gotten any better throughout the year. UM winning tomorrow wouldn't be an upset, and that is something we haven't said before. I'm sure it will be a close game, but I am secretly confident that this game will go UM's way. I wouldn't be shocked if MSU won, but they have all the pressure and that can play strange games with a team's performance.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:31 PM |
It's a big game, to be sure
It's a big game, to be sure
But I'd argue the game at Breslin was probably more meaningful for the season, win or lose tomorrow.
Considering both teams have a strong chanch to make the tournament, even if they lose tomorrow, I'd say you're being a little over-dramatic. Plus, maybe these teams will play again in the BTT.
But whatever, it's a big game and the atmosphere and buildup is more exciting than we've had in a while and certainly bigger than we expected to see all year.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:50 PM |
big game
big game
I hope all of the Michigan fans attending the game tomorrow bring their A game. I know I am attending a football esque tailgate tomorrow, let's make Crisler loud like it's 1993.
March 5th, 2011 at 12:04 AM |
Will be there
Will be there
I'm heading to my 1st BBall game of the year tomorrow. I'm looking forward the seeing if we can really make it a home court advantage. I have never been to a basketball game that felt this big... Maize it out...
B
March 4th, 2011 at 5:38 PM |
whiskey game
whiskey game
After that game I almost punched my 8 month pregnant wife. But that game may help us here. I think we sink some free throws and sink states season. Either team may jump out big but it will be close lower scoring game than prediction
Hot girls we have problems too. We're just like you. Except we're hot.
March 4th, 2011 at 5:56 PM |
Dude, Really?
Dude, Really?
I'm hoping it was like accidental flailing of your hands when that three went in... Like punching the air and not realizing she was there? Right?
March 4th, 2011 at 6:15 PM |
Don't you dare hurt my baby.
Don't you dare hurt my baby.
Don't you dare hurt my baby.
Sent From My Commodore 64
March 4th, 2011 at 6:31 PM |
Punching your wife is a bad
Punching your wife is a bad
Punching your wife is a bad thing whether she's pregnant or not.
March 4th, 2011 at 9:58 PM |
Maybe you should watch sports
Maybe you should watch sports
Maybe you should watch sports alone.
Galileo was also chastised.
March 4th, 2011 at 5:49 PM |
Losing.....
Losing.....
Is not an option. I'm going out on a limb and say Mich 69 MSU 59.
March 4th, 2011 at 6:23 PM |
Is everyone trying to be
Is everyone trying to be
Is everyone trying to be overly impartial? Mgoblog predicting Michigan loss, The Only Colors predictiong MSU loss. I find myself saying this for the first time, but lets hope The Only Colors is right.
March 4th, 2011 at 7:00 PM |
Seriously?!
Seriously?!
Living in NY freaking sucks, considering I was going to DVR the game and watch it after work. I mean, who in NY even cares about AZ and Oregon? ridiculous coverage...
It's GREAT to be a MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!
March 4th, 2011 at 7:12 PM |
Honestly, I don't know who in
Honestly, I don't know who in
Honestly, I don't know who in LA cares about Arizona - Oregon. Oregon doesn't even have a shot at the NIT, so I doubt their fans even care too much about it, except maybe the die hards. And it's not like Arizona and Oregon are any kind of rivals either.
March 5th, 2011 at 11:14 AM |
I Second That
I Second That
There are waaaaaayyyyyy more Michigan fans in CA than Arizona or Oregon fans. I almost never see any of their gear around.
Can't Big Ten Network pickup the game where CBS decides to show something else? I can't watch it online and was hoping to DVR it.
March 4th, 2011 at 7:15 PM |
I have the same issue. The
I have the same issue. The
I have the same issue. The worst isn't having to watch it on a computer - I can deal with that - it's not being able to time-shift.
March 4th, 2011 at 7:52 PM |
Yeah, I have no problem with
Yeah, I have no problem with
Yeah, I have no problem with watching it online either. I'm looking around right now to see if maybe the CBS online stream will be available for viewing after the game is over.
It's GREAT to be a MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!
March 4th, 2011 at 7:02 PM |
Fuck Izzo
Fuck
Fuck Izzo
Fuck
Fuck Izzo
Fuck State
Redemption for Smot, who plays some of his best ball of the season, draining multiple three's on the stunned spartans.
March 4th, 2011 at 7:13 PM |
Totes McGoats.
Totes McGoats.
Totes McGoats.
Hey, at least our mascot hasn't been extinct for millennia. Last I checked, Sparta was a pile of rubble in Greece. That's a long, long way from Crisler Arena. I hope you brought some friends.
Abort, Retry, Fail?