Essentials

Overview

I have to change this now. Since the Big Ten season started this section has been a slightly modified assertion that Team X is probably not real good with issues up the wazoo, a resume that does not intimidate, and a reasonably tractable Vegas line.

None of these things are true in re: Michigan State. They are probably real good, they have no wazoo-rated issues, the worst thing on their resume is beating Purdue by two touchdowns, and Vegas is like lol head for the hills.

Rats.

Injury Guesses

PROBABLY IN: Shane Morris is likely available.

MAYBE: Erik Magnuson's rumored high ankle sprain should be healed by now, right? I mean, unless it's one of those high ankle sprains that never do.

Jabrill Peppers is prominently listed on the depth chart but chatter has him potentially out for the season; we'll see if the internet or the program is more truthy. Bet here is internet.

PROBABLY OUT: Delano Hill, Derrick Green, Desmond Morgan.

Run Offense vs Michigan State

Taiwan Jones is going to be making a lot of tackles.

This is not the all-destroying unit of a year ago but it's still plenty good enough to shut Michigan's arthritic run game down. MSU is currently 28th in YPC allowed; notably, they crushed Nebraska to the tune of 47 yards on 37 carries.

Things have gone less swimmingly at other times—mostly times when someone pops into the secondary and there is flailing around him. Shane Wynn broke a 75-yard reverse last weekend; Tevin Coleman added a 65-yard romp; Purdue had rushes of 52 and 36 yards. That has scuffed up last year's national-best rush D.

The problem for Michigan is what happens on carries that don't go 30 yards. Michigan State is in a tie for 116th with 4 rushes of more than 50 yards allowed; they're eighth with 21 rushes for more than ten yards. The secondary biffs at a high rate on a low number of plays that break long. When they don't go a long way they don't go anywhere unless you're Tevin Coleman. This is an obvious problem for a Michigan rush offense with three runs of 30 yards on the year, all of which came against early-season tomato cans.

You cannot run the ball consistently against Michigan State and Michigan has no explosive capability.

The best bet for something that looks respectable is misdirection and frippery, which Michigan has gone to on occasion this year with Norfleet and Funchess; otherwise it's going to look a lot like the Penn State game, in which Michigan was rarely caught behind the line but struggled to scratch out more than a couple yards at a time.

Key Matchup: Braden/Cole/Williams/Butt versus the MSU perimeter. The State DTs are not great and Michigan's interior line is likely to get push here and there; it may not matter if Michigan can win blocks against the LBs and DEs.

[Hit THE JUMP for a THEMATIC VIDEO of QWOP]

Pass Offense vs Michigan State

Ed Davis had 2.5 sacks last year and leads MSU with 6 this year.

Devin Gardner's ribs have trembled at the coming of this day. Devin Gardner is a warrior, but his ribs would really just like to have some tea and read The Economist. Alas, it is not to be.

Michigan State remains the same maniacally aggressive, rib-annihilating defense they were a year ago. They're currently fifth in the country with 26 sacks, and as is traditional a linebacker is plundering his way into the backfield—Ed Davis leads the team with six. The ends have 8.5 between them and then there's a smattering of contributors coming from all angles at all times. Blitz? Yes please. Blitz? Don't mind if I do. Blitz against Michigan? ALL THE BLITZES.

MSU has not backed this up quite as well as they did a year ago, though. The departures of Isaiah Lewis and Darqueze Dennard have downgraded the MSU secondary from impossible to merely improbable. This was most obvious in the Oregon game, when the Ducks downloaded the Michigan State defense midway through the third quarter and shattered their quarters concept with a series of bombs towards vertical-moving slot receivers.

MSU recovered from this to post good days against Nebraska and Purdue before throttling third-string true freshman Zander Diamont against Indiana; a quality team with the ability to threaten vertically down the slot can attack MSU effectively.

Michigan isn't that. They may in fact be able to threaten vertically down the slot with Norfleet and Funchess, but it's doubtful Michigan can protect consistently enough to force MSU to react and they have not put together anything resembling a scheme likely to pop guys open as safeties overplay thing X. Oregon got to be Oregon because they have an offense that ruthlessly exposes and exploits weak points. Michigan not so much.

Protection is going to be an issue. Michigan's tackles have… coped so far. They haven't been put under nearly as much pressure as they will be on Saturday. Meanwhile, non-Funchess receivers have not shown much ability to get open and Norfleet remains an occasionally-used toy. Jake Butt could be a major weapon against a smaller safety if Michigan can get him open—the pop pass can break huge against MSU if you can protect long enough to get guys past the safety-moving-into-robber level.

I just don't think that's at all possible. Michigan will hit some stuff; Gardner will be harassed into turnovers, etc etc etc.

Key matchup: Devin Gardner versus Disintegration. The concept, not the Cure album.

Run Defense vs Michigan State

This is not last year's Michigan State offense. Correction: it may be the Michigan State offense from the very tail end of last year; it's not the one Michigan went up against midseason. Strength of opposition and all that yes yes but you would weep giant frothy tears if you looked at Michigan's rushing output halfway through the season and saw this:

On the year MSU is averaging 5.5 yards a carry.

The thing with MSU this year is the stunning amount of experience they're carrying. In a two-back set nine of their starters are in their fourth or fifth years (third year players Jack Conklin and Josiah Price are the exceptions); their starting skill guys are all fifth year seniors. Everyone who plays save a few backup skill guys took a redshirt, and MSU fills the few holes they find with judiciously applied JUCOs.

The result is an organized, disciplined unit that gets the most out of talent recruiting services have described as "meh." Meh no more:

They've given up just four sacks all year; their 79 yards lost on TFLs is the fifth-fewest in the country. These guys don't blow assignments and don't get overpowered at the point of attack.

Starting center Jack Allen missed the Indiana game with an ankle injury but is projected to return. Dantonio said he could have gone against the Hoosiers if necessary, so don't expect gamesmanship here.

State is deep, if not thrilling, at tailback. Fifth year senior Jeremy Langford is the workhorse back capable of finding the hole and falling forward through it productively; fifth year senior Nick Hill is the quick third-down back alternative; sophomore Delton Williams is an athletic, physical heir apparent somewhat reminiscent of Jehu Caulcrick. Langford's projected as a mid-round selection in the upcoming NFL draft for reasons that used to sound very Michigan and now sound very Michigan State:

Runs low to the ground with excellent pad level and energetic feet to get the most out of every touch. Langford is a workhorse type with a hard-nosed, no-nonsense style of running the ball, getting stronger as the game progresses. Has a little shake-and-bake to him to extend runs, keeping his legs pumping through contact.

Langford really shines in areas where most young backs struggle like pass protection, reliability in the screen game and also the ability to get stronger and better as the game goes on.

If State does start rolling over Michigan's defense it'll be a lot like last year, when a tiring defense gave up the ghost once the game was out of reach.

Note that State has gone to a heavy dose of gun this year. Ace's FFFF charted the evolution from the Purdue game:

Cook is mobile enough to keep 'em honest on the zone read and Michigan State is using that to help matriculate down the field.

Now, State has not played a rush defense in the same stratosphere as Michigan's. M is fifth nationally in YPC allowed, and the next best State opponent is Nebraska in the 40s. They deal with the same strength of schedule issues State does but let's just assume from now on that yes the Big Ten is awful and etc. etc. etc.

This will be an enormous test for no-long-referred-to-as-walk-on Ryan Glasgow, who's anchored the Michigan rush defense with remarkably consistent production at nose tackle; the rest of the line has gotten a lot of space-constricting push. The linebackers have been dodgier but still seem to be B or B+ players, especially if James Ross's recent OL-flattening surge continues.

One issue for Michigan: with Ondre Pipkins seemingly out of the picture things get thin fast if MSU can stay on the field long enough to get a lot of rotation going on the Michigan DL. True freshman Bryan Mone has gotten flung off the LOS as much as you would expect a true freshman to, and he will not cope well with the veteran Spartan OL.

Key Matchup: Glasgow and Henry versus the interior MSU OL. It starts up front with a leg-churner like Langford.

Pass Defense vs Michigan State

Also not last year's Michigan State: this bit of Michigan State. Connor Cook's completion percentage has jumped three points, his YPA has gone from 7.3 to 9.3, and he's going to blow through his 22 TDs from last year sometime in the next month—he's already got 16. ESPN's QB rating stat is duly impressed, shooting from 69 a year ago to 84. That places him 6th nationally, hanging out with guys like Dak Prescott, Blake Sims, Jameis Winston and—sigh—JT Barrett.

While Cook is still offering up the occasional "what are you doing" throw, those are greatly reduced in his second year at the helm; excellent pass protection and a steadily improving wide receiver corps have seen MSU's offense go from rickety to impressive.

The star of that improving WR corps is Tony Lippett. Lippett is not a burner and still isn't getting much separation, but he's making it work Junior Hemingway style. Ace:

Lippett isn't outrageously big or eye-poppingly athletic, but his ability to run good routes and make plays on the ball separates him from your average receiver. Here's a nice example of the latter:

Zero separation, but Lippett and Cook are on the same page, and Lippett makes easy work of this jump ball before picking up ample yards after the catch, another thing he does quite well.

He's averaging just over 20 yards a catch on 39 opportunities so far this year and has brought in one over 20 yards in every game so far. He's cracked 30 in five games, usually by skying over defensive backs and using his excellent body control to make contested catches. And sometimes he does pop open deep, albeit with the aid of play action that gets corners involved.

The rest of the WR corps is okay, with Macgarrett Kings your slot threat du jour and MSU featuring a pile of big-ish interchangeable guys with around ten catches. Price, the TE, is actually the second-biggest yards per catch threat—watch out for him on play action.

Michigan's pass defense actually seems to match up well with the opposition here. MSU is short on the athletic speedsters who have given the cornerbacks fits so far and they've been good about walling off go routes. Lippett might not have much room to make the kind of catches he does above.

Coverage breaks down, though, and it's doubtful that Michigan gets sufficient pressure to truly shut down the MSU passing game. They tore Christian Hackenberg to bits last week; this is an entirely different level of opposition and oh God it just occurred to me that Hackenberg has to play MSU later this year. #pray4hack

This will be a bit of a grind for MSU but they'll break through if given sufficient opportunities.

Key Matchup: Kings/Price versus Probably Countess and Clark. Michigan's weak point has been the nickel back and safeties pushed into man coverage, especially when Michigan's obvious man alignment gives opponents the ability to check into rub routes and such.

Special Teams

Previously-reliable kicker Michael Geiger's had a bit of a wobble the last few weeks, going 3/6 after starting his career almost perfect. He even missed one under 40, which had not happened in his career to date. I wouldn't expect that to last but he's not as automatic as you would have assumed preseason.

Punter Mike Sadler has just been okay. He's averaging just over 40 yards an attempt; MSU has allowed returns on a hefty third of his punts and given up a PR touchdown. There might be some room for Norfleet to get upfield here.

Spartan return services are not threatening. RJ Shelton is trundling out to the 25 when he gets a kick return opportunity; Macgarrett Kings is averaging about seven yards a pop on punts. As per usual Michigan's combo of line drives from Hagerup and old-timey punt formations could offer Kings a highway to 20 yard returns—rewatching the Minnesota game was infuriating in this department.

Key Matchup: YOU PUT ELEVEN GUYS ON THE FIELD AT LEAST MOST OF THE TIME

Intangibles

if there was ever a time for grumpycat

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• You are entering this game with anything resembling hope. I mean, yeah, Michigan has a 10% chance according to historical spread W/L stuff but what about either of these programs would indicate to you that Vegas was off—in a good way?
• You have too many nachos
• While watching the game you are sucked into a hellish alternate dimension

Cackle with knowing glee if..

• Alternate dimension actually seems better than previous dimension
• Alternate dimension has nachos
• Um, like six Michigan State turnovers?

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Boy They Seem Good, +1 for Michigan Has Gotten Outcoached In This Game For Six Straight Years, +1 for We Ain't Got No Big Plays And That's Doom Against MSU, +1 for Maybe We'll Get Positive Rushing Yards… Maybe, +1 for Vegas Says LOL)

Desperate need to win level: 6 (Baseline 5; +1 for MSU Is Bad And Should Feel Bad, +1 for It Would Be Pretty Hilarious, +1 for Here Is One Knife To Your Playoff Chances, –1 for Oh Right We're Rooting To Prevent MSU From Winning A National Title Instead Of Actually Doing Anything Ourselves, –1 for Apparently We Need Yet Further Clarity About Things That May Not In Fact Be Already Decided But Really Should Be)

Loss will cause me to... resume F5-ing every message board that has ever had a post about Michigan football for news about regime change.

Win will cause me to... yodel in surprise.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan averages two yards a carry, which is actually incredible improvement relative to last year.
• Defense keeps Michigan in it for a while, something bad happens on offense or special teams, two score lead, Michigan folds their tent.
• Michigan State, 30-10