Preview: Michigan State 2013 Comment Count

Brian

Other stuff here: Ace VEQ!

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irrelevant is just a state of mind

Essentials

WHAT Michigan vs Michigan State
WHERE Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
WHEN 3:30 PM Eastern
November 2nd, 2013
THE LINE M +6
TELEVISION ABC
WEATHER mid 40s, scattered showers, 10 MPH wind

Overview

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Michigan State is a version of what they were last year: a boa-constrictor defense paired with mincing foppery on the other side of the ball. According to FEI, both units are marginally worse than they were last year, but the eye test and various other stats suggest that the defense has taken a frightening step forward. They lead the Big Ten in yards per play allowed by almost a full yard over Wisconsin.

The offense seemed to have taken a huge step backwards when MSU could barely get a first down against luminaries like WMU and South Florida early in the year, but of late have put the hammer down on awful defenses Indiana and Illinois (Illinois is last in YPPA in the league and 114th nationally), struggling against Purdue in between. The jury remains out as to whether Michigan State can move the ball against an actual defense. Yes, Michigan has one of those.

Run Offense vs Michigan State

SEPT 07, 2012; Mt. Pleasant, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans against Central Michigan Chippewas at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Mandatory Credit:  Rey Del Rio / MSU Athletic Communications<br />
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welp.

It doesn't look good. This year's top rushing output against the MSU defense was Indiana going for 92 yards on 27 carries. With 64 of those coming on a defensive bust in the first quarter the down-to-down pattern was misery even for the lights-out Hoosier offense.

ND went for 82 yards on 32 carries, if you'd like to compare that to Michigan. While MSU hasn't played anyone who's particularly good at scoring touchdowns other than Indiana, Iowa's 16 carries for 23 yards is a massive outlier for them, as was Illinois's 21 carries for 25 yards. I'm not even bothering to separate sacks here, because… I mean… the numbers speak for themselves. MSU's leading the country in YPC allowed with 2.1, which is the best number anyone's put up since TCU's 2008 outfit allowed 1.7. That is obviously pending a number of opponents better than what they've seen so far. Even so, prepare to be boarded. You know this.

State accomplishes these things by crowding the box with linebackers and safeties. They play "quarters" most of the time, which mgouser Colin detailed last year. Though it sounds super-conservative (cover 4 == 4 deep, right?) in fact MSU plays a hyperaggressive defense featuring tons of press coverage and safeties that start ten yards off the line of scrimmage even on downs like second and 16.

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Ohio State tried this last year, busted a ton of stuff, gave up big plays, and has retreated into a less aggressive scheme this year. Michigan State is pulling it off, obviously. A lot of that has to do with the guy pictured above, Max Bullough, a senior who is the proverbial QB of the defense. Denicos Allen is a slashing, slightly undersized blitzer next to him; Michigan has had extreme issues trying to deal with him the past two years.

If there's a weak link in the MSU D, it is the defensive tackles. They've shuffled some guys around and are now going with Micajah Reynolds and sixth-year senior Tyler Hoover. At times this year they've been beaten out of the hole and allowed opponents to grind out some runs—South Florida in particular managed this. But with those safeties screwed down and utterly reliable linebackers behind, the payoff is low even if you do get some movement on the interior. And Michigan is doubtful to do so consistently.

For Michigan's part, Fitzgerald Toussaint's averaging 3.7 yards a pop. To pick a guy you saw and were totally unimpressed with, Minnesota's David Cobb is at 5.2. The feature back for Michigan State's supposedly terrible offense, Jeremy Langford, is at 4.7. This is in large part because of 27 for 27, but when five of your seven opponents to date are CMU, Akron, UConn, Minnesota, and Indiana there is plenty of room to obscure that; Michigan has not.

I am only telling you what you already know because your eyes have told you so. Stats are so very unnecessary here, aren't they? Michigan can't run worth a damn. The frantic offensive line shuffling: QED. Whatever assumptions Michigan made about their ability to do things in the run-up to the season have been disproven emphatically, and now they're going up against what the guys who try to smooth out schedule differences say is the best defense in the country.

Michigan's best hope here is for low frequency. I'm on board with unleashing the dragon here; MSU dares you to test them deep and Michigan has a couple of guys who can do that in different ways. That means buckets of max protection from twins sets and play action, which necessarily means sometimes Michigan's going to have to plow into the line.

With AJ Williams suspended Michigan has three options: spread it out and throw first, play Jordan Paskorz in the Williams role, or just say screw it and play six offensive linemen. It says here that the first and third will take equal measure with Paskorz an occasional alternative, and Michigan won't seem to miss the absence. Williams hadn't run a route longer than five yards all year and has not caught a pass; he was essentially a sixth OL anyway.

Key Matchup: Borges versus Coming Up With Something Clever. Michigan's not going to get much straight up; they'll hope to bust a big play to keep the numbers respectable. The aggressive nature of the MSU D can lead big plays for the opponent, and the right counter is the best way to unlock that since it doesn't seem like MSU's going to bust on its own. The "right counter" is nothing you've put on film before.

[Hit THE JUMP for EXPLODES IN ALL DIRECTIONS]

Pass Offense vs Michigan State

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Eric Upchurch

This is the game. If Notre Dame Gardner shows up, Michigan wins. Yeah, even with free touchdown. That's how good the rest of Notre Dame Gardner was. He stepped into throws in the face of serious rush, hit back-shoulders to Gallon, hit Gallon deep, hit Gallon, hit Gallon. It was a pantheon Michigan QB performance.

Since then Gardner's turned the ball over at a blistering rate, causing Michigan to curl up into the fetal position until such time as they are forced out of it by circumstance, and then they go into that fetal position again. If Michigan becomes the copier in Office Space here, they will be the copier in Office Space. It does not turn out well for the copier.

Michigan has only a few choices here. An excellent post on Football Study Hall details:

The nature of this approach to pass coverage invites three particular throws from the offense: the quick out to take advantage of the linebackers' inside leverage, a go route up the seam matching a dangerous slot receiver with a safety, and the deep fade down the sideline against the press corner.

The latter play is one that Michigan State loves to see, as it's generally a low percentage throw for collegiate offenses. The vertical-minded Brian Kelly and his Notre Dame Fighting Irish threw endless fade routes against the Spartans and were rescued only by a cascade of pass interference flags flying from the officials' hands. Most opponents have not been so lucky.

Michigan doesn't like quick outs (and MSU is pressing so much screens are a futile idea), hasn't hit many seams, and loves the deep route. Last year, though, it was that seam that accounted for much of Michigan's passing success. Drew Dileo had a career game on various seams and zone-sit-downs, and even if he's not healthy (he missed most of the Indiana game) Michigan has a potentially terrifying weapon poised to work those areas: Devin Funchess.

It's not in the nature of the MSU defense to go with a pure nickelback; instead they've generally gone with LB/S hybrids that have a fancy name, a la OSU. This year, converted safety Jairus Jones (the guy who lateraled that interception) was that player, but he remains out with an MCL injury. This will either force Michigan State to deviate from their scheme to match up on Funchess when he's in the slot or allow Funchess to work on Taiwan Jones, a middling pass defender, and one of MSU's safeties. Who are also good, don't get me wrong, but if Devin Funchess is really the state's other Megatron, this is the time to show it.

Key matchup: Funchess and Gallon winning one on one battles against the MSU secondary. Ball's going up, and if Gallon can shake and Funchess box out there's meals to be had.

Run Defense vs Michigan State

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Despite the up and down—mostly down—narrative of Michigan State's season, this has been a consistently just below average rush offense. 4.4 YPC against WMU and USF is below average; 3.4 and 3.7 against Notre Dame and Iowa is below average; 5 against Indiana is still probably below average; 4.4 and 4.9 against Purdue and Illinois is… verging on average, but not quite.

If this paints a picture of a very boring rush offense, you get a cookie. MSU is the opposite of Michigan in this regard. Michigan is almost the worst team in the country at preventing TFLs; MSU is tied for ninth with Alabama (and ULL). MSU runs, they get a few yards, they usually don't get more than that, they usually don't get less than that. Primary back Jeremy Langford has one rush of more than 20 yards this season, that for 32 against Indiana. He goes forward a few yards at a time.

They do a few boring things boringly and get boring results, which makes perfect sense when you can put a defense out there like MSU's. Of course, against Michigan they'll pull the rabbit out of the hat a few times. The general trend will still be second and seven, third and three.

State will go wildcat from time to time and does like to deploy Cook as a runner on inverted veers and other designed runs that aren't generally draws. Cook is hardly different from the rest of their rush offense: he usually gets a few yards, and only a few. It's something to watch for on second and ten and like downs. He's not Denard, or even Mitch Leidner; he too, will get a few yards at a time.

Langford is something of a cipher. He's kind of fast, he's not too big, he follows his blocks and doesn't do much that's spectacular. He is just a guy. If you're looking for the guy who might do something stupid or stupidly awesome, State took the wraps off of true freshman Delton Williams a few games ago and has been rewarded with production. Williams is significantly bigger than Langford and lowers his helmet to finish runs with authority; he's a quintessential "behind his pads" runner who plows out yards after contact.

"I like to bang, I like for you to hit me, and I know If you don't, I'm going to bring it to you,'' Williams said. "So, when the guy was coming to me, and I brought it to him, he knew next time he better get lower."

He'll be the short yardage back.

Michigan's rush defense has been on the backburner virtually the entire season as the Wolverines have taken on passing spread after passing spread. The only outfit that clearly defies that category is Minnesota, who Michigan shut down when they weren't giving up maddening scrambles to Mitch Leidner. This may or may not mean anything. While the Gophers gouged out a ton of yards in a win over Nebraska, they were obliterated by Iowa and very mediocre against Northwestern.

At the very least the Gopher game does give an indication of what Michigan will do against a box-heavy running attack that tends to involve the quarterback, which is play Quinton Washington and run a pretty effective 4-3 under.

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This one has an extra safety but that's the idea.

While Michigan has been conservative to date, here's hoping that Thomas Gordon sees a lot of time in this one in a similar alignment (he's on the left hash), as Mattison deployed Kovacs as a bonus linebacker with great efficacy against MSU the past couple years.

This is likely to be a push. MSU will usually get a few yards and not bust anything truly long; Michigan will look for opportunities to slant their way into a passing situation for Cook, getting hit for a couple of good gains and eventually forcing MSU into a spot where they have to convert through the air.

Key Matchup: Black/Wormley/Heitzman/etc. versus POWER. Stat will identify Black and rotating SDE as areas to attack. They'll down block Washington in an effort to give their linemen easy assignments against Michigan's best run DL and attempt to blow the other gentleman off the ball.

Pass Defense vs Michigan State

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Also the game. The wildly variable Connor Cook took over the starting job after a couple of games in which he rotated with other contenders, and since he's waxed and waned.

Opponent CMP ATT YDS CMP% TD INT YPA
Notre Dame 16 32 135 50 1 0 4.2
Iowa 25 44 277 57 2 1 6.3
Indiana 22 31 235 71 2 1 7.6
Purdue 13 25 107 52 0 0 4.3
Illinois 15 16 208 94 3 0 13.0

Turrible, bad, probably still bad since Indiana but at least consistent, turrible, great!

If the great bit is at all relevant, Michigan loses. It probably won't be. Illinois gave up 8.4 YPA to Southern Illinois and has let their three major-conference opponents other than MSU to exceed 9 YPA—they're completely horrendous. Michigan is at least middling.

Slot type Macgarrett Kings has emerged into MSU's top wide receiver, albeit narrowly. He's a slippery guy with good routes and B+ speed; he generally catches what is thrown at him. The rest of the WR corps cannot say that. Bennie Fowler is the most physically imposing WR MSU has, but has Featherstone hands and keeps yo-yoing from bench to field depending on his most recent attempts to catch the ball; Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery are just guys; hyped freshman Aaron Burbridge has fallen down the depth chart and is averaging under nine yards a catch. They have many people, but they are all kind of bad. This won't prevent any one of them from doing something annoyingly good, of course.

Whatever that is it probably won't be way downfield. MSU averages 10 yards a completion and their best guy in that category is freshman TE Josiah Price, who is emerging because unlike the rest of their options he can block and catch some.

Michigan's approach in this department has been tortoise-like. Michigan laid back against Notre Dame and that made sense because Notre Dame was pretty good but tended to bog down in the red zone. Then they kept doing that against Akron and UConn and Minnesota and it was revealed that Michigan again had a well-organized but pedestrian defense lacking many starts. That's just how it is, again. Maybe next year.

On standard downs, Michigan will be facing a lot of play action and will find it difficult to respect that and get to the QB; Cook will have time. MSU's only given up six sacks this year, and their attempts aren't actually too far off a normal school's. Part of that is the short nature of their passing game

Whether Cook can find anyone open and get it to them is up to him. Michigan cornerbacks have been pretty good about sticking to their WRs this year only for opposing quarterbacks to fit the ball in small windows or, in the particular case of Channing Stribling, somehow turn a certain interception into disaster.

On passing downs Michigan will load up and try to confuse Cook while getting free rushers. This has a pretty decent shot at success. His mechanics break down when he feels pressure, either to fit the ball in somewhere or when forced to move, and then throws sail. The Purdue game featured highlight packages of Cook throws barely in the vicinity of a receiver, and Michigan will endeavor to repeat that.

Key Matchup: Frank Clark and Jake Ryan versus Rushing Four. Cook's been very good about protecting the ball; this is a game where turnover margin is going to be even more vastly important than it usually is; Cook does not fare well under pressure. Someone get to the dang QB.

Special Teams

MSU yanked senior kicker Kevin Muma for Michael Geiger, who's hit six of seven attempts so far. His one miss was from inside 40, FWIW. Geiger has not been called on for a field goal since the Iowa game. They'll probably hit reasonable field goals, and Geiger's long is 49. Punter Mike Sadler has recovered after almost dying from overuse early in the season and is averaging a quite good 43 yards a kick. Impressively, only nine of his 42 attempts have been returned. Purdue did get a 40-yarder late in the first half of that game.

MSU's return units are bad. They almost don't bother with kickoffs, with only nine attempts on the year. Sheer volume makes it look like their punt guys get yards but 27 returns on the year is almost double the Big Ten's next-closest competitor and they average nine yards a pop.

Michigan is a mirror image here, slightly worse overall because they've suddenly got a shaky kicker. Matt Wile's average is still recovering from some ugly early-season shanks; Dennis Norfleet is perpetually on the verge of breaking a kickoff but has not as of yet.

Key Matchup: YOU PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Intangibles

Grumpy-Cat-01[1]

Either myself or Mark Dantonio after the game

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • At any point Michigan puts just one wide receiver on the field. (Devin Funchess is a wide receiver.)
  • Michigan's 4-3 under package featuring Washington looks rusty, understandable though that might be.
  • MSU's staff looks to have out-prepared Michigan's despite only having a technical bye week instead of an actual one.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Cook is throwing it anywhere except the vicinity of his wide receivers.
  • MSU's secondary can't handle Funchess and Gallon on max protect "play action."
  • MSU receivers are getting plunked in the helmet humorously.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 for Patented MSU Overprep, +1 for They Don't Even Really Need To Overprep This Year Apparently, –1 for Okay But Your Offense Sucks, +1 for Wait, Whose Offense Sucks?, +1 for Probably Better Than Akron/UConn/PSU, +1 Beginning To Believe The Hoke Road Woes Meme, –1 for But Seriously Mattison Eats These Offenses For Lunch And Michigan Thinks Everyone Still Does This And This Is Going To Be One Of Those Fart Fights. +0 for QUIEN ES MAS FARTO)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline 5; +1 for They're Annoying, +1 for SHIT, They're Annoying, +1 for Division Title Is Gone If They Lose, –1 for Uh, Not Exactly Expecting Rose Bowl At This Point Anyway, +1 for Narrative Business, +1 for I Will Not Even Try To Describe How Annoying They Are But Trust Me.)

Loss will cause me to... DEFINITELY NOT GET ARRESTED.

Win will cause me to... definitely get arrested.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Figure that Michigan's ground game is some Gardner scrambles and otherwise looks a lot like it did against PSU and that MSU will grind out some boring yards and Michigan's in a bit of a hole.

Can they make up for that hole by outperforming in the passing game? Survey says… maybe. Notre Dame sliced up MSU's secondary multiple times in their game only for Tommy Rees to overthrow his open dudes by yards. Funchess is a problem few teams are equipped to deal with and it is possible that Gallon's quickness gives MSU some trouble as they try to defend him one on one. And if it really just comes down to it, throwing up a punt to Funchess is not a terrible option.

Meanwhile, the Cook renaissance looks pretty flimsy once you take a look at how Illinois's season has gone; we all know about Indiana. Game figures to bog down with MSU chugging out first downs here and there and Michigan responding with chunk plays on long throws that they can't follow up with touchdowns.

In the end, it'll be a turnover that undoes it.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Toussaint YPC: 2.3. Never say I'm a pessimist you guys.
  • Michigan State PI flags: 1. PI incidents: however many attempts Gardner has.
  • Michigan brings out some tricky trick plays that don't work. 
  • Michigan State, 16-10.

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 1st, 2013 at 2:24 PM ^

That UF team also featured like the number 98 pass D in the nation that year. It shouldn't be surprising that UM was able to light them up like they did (it was only surprising because UM actually put together a great offensive gameplay that made sense with their personnel and the team hey were playing). MSU's defense is, um, significantly better.

Artie

November 1st, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^

Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure Dantonio will look like that cat regardless of the outcome.  Someone get that man a hug and a box of Russel Stovers.

Yinka Double Dare

November 1st, 2013 at 1:07 PM ^

If we do six offensive linemen, I really want to see Taylor Lewan: Goal Line Tight End.  Come on, who wouldn't love to see us fake running it up the gut, Lewan sneak out and be wide open because he's an offensive lineman, and actually catch a TD after he came back for his senior year?  I mean, I have to think it would be far more unexpected than Gardner going out on a boot, the usual action after a run fake on the goal line.  Heck, have Gardner take a couple steps toward the boot to get the whole defense flowing that way, stop, plant and throw back to a wide open Lewan!  Profits!

Bluebastard

November 1st, 2013 at 1:15 PM ^

HELLO..... IF DILEO DOES NOT PLAY WE LOSE!! You people never recognize what a vital player Drew is? If not for him we lose last year!! heis the SMARTEST GUY On our offense. Gallon is great but anyone could have done what he did against Indiana!! When, Drew is invloved throughtout, his entire career..... MICHIGAN WINS!!! Do your statistics on that. The most overlooked guy ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

WolvinLA2

November 1st, 2013 at 6:19 PM ^

That's fair, though I disagree.  Over the course of a handful of years, Stonum usually did nothing on his returns, but then also housed a couple.  And the kicker was 5 yards farther back.  

Norfleet hasn't taken one all the way yet, but has given us good field position on a number (and screwed up one or two).  Norfleet has been playing for about one year total, and I bet he reaches Stonum levels before it's all said and done.  Hopefully he can stay out of trouble better than Stonum too.

Braylon 5 Hour…

November 1st, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^

I think a lot of Gardner's turnovers this year have come from the offensive line getting blown up and him pressing into mistakes.  So, it'll come down to turnover margin, but I think more than anything will be all about the offensive line.  If we can make MSU drive the length of the field for their points, I think we've got a chance.

Also, I feel like this is the first time we've come into this game off of a bye while they've played the week before, so hopefully the coaching staff can make that a worthwhile advantage?

gbdub

November 1st, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^

I think Brian's prediction re: pass interference is spot on, but I'd add a corollary: Inevitably, the one time State is called for PI will be the one time it's actually a borderline call, and Sparty will gripe endlessly about the "phantom penalties" against their "lock down corners".  

gwkrlghl

November 1st, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^

I have a hard time not seeing a terrible offensive game in which we have no room to run on the ground and Gardner is in full on panic-scrambly-double-back mode. I hope Borges has come up with something good, but past experience doesn't leave me too hopeful

I think if we can win the turnover battle, we win. However, I think the odds of winning the turnover battle are low

stephenrjking

November 1st, 2013 at 1:49 PM ^

I agree with this, but let's be fair: no pro-style OC would be able to concoct something that could pwn MSU's defense with an OL that is a total mess and a QB who is prone to making catastrophic mistakes, especially on the road against a team whose MO is to win by scoring defensive TDs.

There's a lot of pre-game Borges hate here, which suggests to me that there is no game plan Al could produce that would satisfy fans, unless, Michigan produces an upset victory. Yet Borges just doesn't have much to work with, except for the slim chance that DG plays the game of his life, on the road, against one of the best Ds in the nation.

It's just not happening.

Blue in Yarmouth

November 1st, 2013 at 1:58 PM ^

I'm not getting into this fight again but saying Borges has nothing to work with is beyond being a Borges apologist. He has planty to work with, and when he has taken the training wheels off he has shown just how good an offense he has. Tell me MSU wouldn't trade in a millisecond each and every one of their offensive players for each of ours.

If we don't put something together offensively for this game it won't be because we don't have the talent, it will be either we had a crap gameplan or the players weren't well prepared, not becuase they "out talented us". I honetly can't believe now the Borges lovers (I'm neither a hater or supporter, I trying to give him the year to make up my mind) are now saying he has nothing to work with. That's just horse shite.

mGrowOld

November 1st, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^

I 100% agree.  The problem isnt that Borges doesnt have anything to work with.  The problem is that Michigan has decided there's a right way (QB under center) and a wrong way (Shotgun & Pistol) to gain yards.  And until we figure out that yards, no matter how they are attained ARE GOOD, we will struggle.

Don

November 1st, 2013 at 4:03 PM ^

Ye blasphemer, this is moral equivalence of the worst sort. Yards attained under center are holy and confirm His plan for us, while yards attained in the "Shotgun" and the "Pistol" are perverted, idolatrous, and lead to having sex with animals, and worse—drinking white wine with red meat, and wearing white after Labor Day.

Reader71

November 1st, 2013 at 2:20 PM ^

I pity the OC that has to consider if his line is capable of making a crease in any defense with any run play. I don't think Stephen is an apologist. He's criticized Borges a fair amount. But this is a damn good point. Its hard to game plan around a bad line. Near impossible.

But no, State would not trade their line for ours. No chance. Skill positions, sure.

Everyone Murders

November 1st, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^

"It's just not happening"?  Michigan is only a 6 pt. underdog in this game (and home advantage usually accounts for 3 pts. from what I've heard).  That's more than a fighter's chance, and there are tons of variables in this matchup of flawed teams.

Bear in mind that MSU's offense is spotty at best, and we have some pretty good offensive weapons in Gallon, Funchess and DG.  While I would not guarantee victory - and don't have standing to - it seems a bit rash to write this off.

Plus, this is the first time in recent memory where Michigan has had a bye week to prepare for the game (after plenty of situations where MSU had a bye before our game).  Michigan's players are hungry for this, they have a good idea of what they'll be up against, and I think they may well surprise you and pull this one off.  Remember that their QB Cook has a tremendous amount of pressure on him, and he's not faced it before.

Chin up, good sir!

 

WolverineFanatic6

November 1st, 2013 at 5:37 PM ^

The national average for homefield is about 2.5 points. The sharps in vegas however are surely aware of Michigan's road woes bc 30 minutes after the initial line released it jumped a point in sparty's direction. Sharp money moves initial lines. Vegas is trying to garner some $ on Michigan which happened as soon as the number reached 5.5 it was about 2-3 hours before it was down to 4.5.



Vegas analysis obviously sees this as a close MSU win. The spread is too risky on both sides which is why the Michigan money line +195 (last I checked) is not a bad play here. We certainly have the tools and we are so inconsistent that no one actually knows what to expect tomorrow.



I think this game comes down to winning the turnover battle and winning first down to set up use of our entire playbook and not just be in 2nd and 11+ all day like we were against PSU.



Michigan 16 MSU 17

jmarsh22

November 2nd, 2013 at 8:17 AM ^

Feel free to disagree with him, but unfortunately I think he'll be proven right. This is by far the best defense we've faced this season. Given the shaky play of the interior of the OL, Devin's tendency to turn the ball over under pressure, the complete lack of a running game, our underwhelming defense, our mediocre road record under Hoke, and our propensity to play without the same fire and intensity that MSU does in this game, and that spells trouble. There just isn't much reason to be optimistic.

snarling wolverine

November 1st, 2013 at 3:15 PM ^

You sound awfully bleak about an offense that is averaging 42 ppg.  Yes, our OL is not the best and our QB has committed some costly turnovers, but he's also an extremely talented player averaging over 10 yards per attempt.

I agree that Borges gets singled out too much for criticism, but this game is very much winnable.

Durham Blue

November 1st, 2013 at 1:35 PM ^

I think it's pretty spot on, however, I believe the game will come down to a last second FG.  As for the winner, who knows?

I think I'll avoid a good chance at adding insult (Michigan losing) to injury (losing a Michigan to win bet) and just go with the under on the game.  I could take Michigan +6 but it doesn't pay all that well.

Soulfire21

November 1st, 2013 at 1:42 PM ^

Gardner's turned the ball over at a blistering rate

True, but the rate of turnovers has been on the decline, or "regressing toward the mean". In the first 4 games Gardner had 8 INTs and Michigan had 12 turnovers, good for 2 INTs per game and 3 turnovers per game. In the past 3, Gardner threw 2 INTs and Michigan has had 5 turnovers, good for 0.67 INT/game and 1.67 turnovers/game. Given that this game is on the road, I think we should expect to be -1 or -2 on the turnover margin though.

Here's to hoping Devin and Michigan continue to improve on the turnover thing.

Indiana Blue

November 1st, 2013 at 1:45 PM ^

this teams has played to its opponent's level all season.  I see nothing different tomorrow.  The task is simply to win a meaningful conference game away from Michigan Stadium.  

Go Blue!

youn2948

November 1st, 2013 at 1:45 PM ^

Can't help but wonder if Lewan can catch and what could happen if he can.

Imagine a Tackle Over(just keep reading I know we want to shut it from our minds), where Lewan is put out next to schofield.  Pancakes a DE or OLB then catches the ball and bowls over safeties and corners in his path before his legs tripped up.  While highly unlikely I'd cackle with glee if we ran that trick play and Lewan got to score a TD on sparty.

/back to reality