THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Izzoface. [Fuller]

THE US

John Beilein still won't get into specifics about the availability of Caris LeVert. Today he said LeVert was able to do more in practice yesterday and "we'll see what happens."

LeVert himself has apparently told a few people that he expects to be back on the floor tomorrow. The expectation is he'd come off the bench in his first game back before working his way to his old role.

So, um, we'll see what happens. As Beilein has said repeatedly, we won't know LeVert's final status until we see him (or don't) in warmups.

THE STAKES

Aside from rivalry pride? A win would be a huge boost for Michigan's tournament resume; most recent bracket projections have M in the eight- to ten-seed range. The Wolverines need at least three more wins over a tough final eight games of the Big Ten slate to feel comfortable with their tourney chances, and while KenPom projects them to reach 11-7—getting four wins down the stretch—he only has them as outright favorites in two of those games. (Two others, vs. Purdue and at OSU, are essentially coin-flips.)

While it's very unlikely Michigan catches Iowa and Indiana atop the conference standings, a victory would be critical for Big Ten Tournament seeding; a win would get M two games clear of MSU with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their only matchup. The Wolverines could find themselves alone in fourth place with a win and a Purdue loss at Maryland on Saturday.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Point guard LouRawls "Tum Tum" Nairn is "doubtful at best" with a foot injury.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

While Michigan State isn't quite the world-beating outfit they appeared to be after a 13-0 start to the season, they're also much better than their 6-4 conference record would indicate—that mark includes two losses to new KenPom #1 Iowa and a one-point defeat at the Kohl Center, with the only truly bad loss coming at home against Nebraska. The Spartans are now on a three-game winning streak that includes a comfortable win over #9 Maryland.

It's a safe bet you'll hear that this "isn't a classic Izzo team" on tomorrow's broadcast; while MSU is rebounding at their usual elite rate on both ends, their offense is driven by the three-point shot, which accounts for a third of their points. Starting guards Bryn Forbes (48%) and Eron Harris (40%) are both excellent three-point shooters; Harris also adds an off-the-dribble threat, while Forbes is so elite as a spot-up shooter he basically makes it impossible for opponents to play zone:

The reason I’d always play man against the Spartans? Senior shooting guard Bryn Forbes is one of the nation’s foremost zone-busters. He has shot 15-of-26 on threes (that’s 57.7%!) against zones this season, according to Synergy Sports Technology’s logs, and is a 1.62 points-per-possession scorer overall against zone D. That’s a small sample, but Forbes has been so locked-in from long range this season (connecting at a 48.2% clip on 6.0 attempts per game) that I’d be scared to do anything other than assign a man defender with instructions not to help off of him in any situations.

The focal point of the offense is Denzel Valentine, especially in the absence of Tum Tum Nairn, the only true point guard on the roster. Valentine can do it all, as anyone who saw his 29-12-12 triple-double against Kansas can attest. He's an elite distributor, a 43% three-point shooter who can knock them down off the bounce, and a solid defensive rebounder. Valentine is a matchup nightmare for this Michigan squad, since the defender best-suited to guard him, Zak Irvin, will almost certainly have to match up against...

...freshman big Deyonta Davis, who's been a revelation for the Spartans up front. Davis leads the conference in block rate, makes 64% of his field goals, and is one of the best rebounders in the B1G on both ends of the floor. The other big, senior Matt Costello, is an even better rebounder—first in the conference in OR%, second in DR%—as well as a good shot-blocker and finisher around the hoop.

The top reserve is freshman gunner Matt McQuaid, who makes 42% of his threes. Sophomore Javon Bess and freshman Kenny Goins will rotate into the frontcourt; while neither has been particularly productive in conference play, they can both make an impact on the offensive glass.

THE RESUME

The losses have been covered above. MSU also has two signature non-conference wins over #11 Kansas and #9 Louisville to go along with their recent triumph over Maryland.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

As noted above, MSU is a great rebounding team on both ends of the floor. While they've struggled with efficiency inside the arc in Big Ten games, they've made up for it with those second chances and great outside shooting—43% from three-point range.

The Spartans have surpassed Purdue as the best two-point defense in the conference; they're top-five nationally in both two-point and three-point percentage against. While they're foul-prone, that's something Michigan hasn't been able to take advantage of very often.

THE KEYS

Crisp rotations. Denzel Valentine is a load to handle off the pick-and-roll, capable of pulling up for three, dishing to the rolling big, or taking it to the rack himself for a finish or a kickout. The two-man game is tough to handle on its own; then we get to the part where MSU can surround Valentine with elite shooters and still have a couple major threats to get offensive boards. Defending the Spartans will require everyone to step it up; if Michigan over-helps or falls asleep on rotations, they're going to get rained on.

Improve on the pick-and-roll. Michigan's hideous performance against Indiana featured a lot of wild drives to the hoop that were stymied by IU's big men. The Wolverines still have to find a way to get to the hoop, but they have to do a much better job of making life difficult on the opposing big men; Mark Donnal needs to bounce back after a poor performance in the pick-and-roll on Tuesday night—he must be more assertive when rolling to the hoop. If Donnal can be effective, Michigan may have a matchup to exploit when Zak Irvin or Duncan Robinson is going up against a big man.

Survive on the glass. Michigan can't get crushed on the boards. This is another area that will require a team-wide effort; if Derrick Walton isn't swooping in for a good 6-10 defensive boards, that'll be a worrisome sign.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 2.

It's difficult to feel optimistic about Michigan's ability to score in the halfcourt after Tuesday night. If MSU is making their outside shots, beating them will be a tall order.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.