Preview: Michigan State Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (17-6, 7-3 B1G) vs

Michigan State (19-4, 6-4)
WHERE Crisler Center

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE MSU -2 (KenPom)
TV CBS

PBP: Carter Blackburn

Analyst: Clark Kellogg

Right: Izzoface. [Fuller]

THE US

John Beilein still won't get into specifics about the availability of Caris LeVert. Today he said LeVert was able to do more in practice yesterday and "we'll see what happens."

LeVert himself has apparently told a few people that he expects to be back on the floor tomorrow. The expectation is he'd come off the bench in his first game back before working his way to his old role.

So, um, we'll see what happens. As Beilein has said repeatedly, we won't know LeVert's final status until we see him (or don't) in warmups.

THE STAKES

Aside from rivalry pride? A win would be a huge boost for Michigan's tournament resume; most recent bracket projections have M in the eight- to ten-seed range. The Wolverines need at least three more wins over a tough final eight games of the Big Ten slate to feel comfortable with their tourney chances, and while KenPom projects them to reach 11-7—getting four wins down the stretch—he only has them as outright favorites in two of those games. (Two others, vs. Purdue and at OSU, are essentially coin-flips.)

While it's very unlikely Michigan catches Iowa and Indiana atop the conference standings, a victory would be critical for Big Ten Tournament seeding; a win would get M two games clear of MSU with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their only matchup. The Wolverines could find themselves alone in fourth place with a win and a Purdue loss at Maryland on Saturday.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 14 Eron Harris Jr. 6'3, 185 50 25 No
40% three-point shooter also gets to FT line frequently.
G 5 Bryn Forbes Sr. 6'3, 190 66 19 No
One of the best pure three-point gunners in the country.
G 45 Denzel Valentine Sr. 6'5, 220 65 28 No
4th in KPOY. Consistent triple-double threat. 50/43/83 shooting splits.
F 23 Deyonta Davis Fr. 6'10, 240 45 19 Very
1st in B1G in block rate, 4th in 2P%, 19th in OR%, 5th in DR%. Kid's good.
F 10 Matt Costello Sr. 6'9, 245 55 22 Very
Good finisher and shot-blocker, elite rebounder, fouls under control.
G 20 Matt McQuaid Fr. 6'5, 190 41 14 No
Low-usage, mostly a spot-up shooter, hits 42% of his threes.
F 2 Javon Bess So. 6'5, 220 33 17 Yes
Inefficient scorer, but gets to line and does decent work on the glass.
F 25 Kenny Goins Fr. 6'6, 225 23 13 Very
Minuscule usage in B1G play, minutes vary wildly depending on opponent.

Point guard LouRawls "Tum Tum" Nairn is "doubtful at best" with a foot injury.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

While Michigan State isn't quite the world-beating outfit they appeared to be after a 13-0 start to the season, they're also much better than their 6-4 conference record would indicate—that mark includes two losses to new KenPom #1 Iowa and a one-point defeat at the Kohl Center, with the only truly bad loss coming at home against Nebraska. The Spartans are now on a three-game winning streak that includes a comfortable win over #9 Maryland.

It's a safe bet you'll hear that this "isn't a classic Izzo team" on tomorrow's broadcast; while MSU is rebounding at their usual elite rate on both ends, their offense is driven by the three-point shot, which accounts for a third of their points. Starting guards Bryn Forbes (48%) and Eron Harris (40%) are both excellent three-point shooters; Harris also adds an off-the-dribble threat, while Forbes is so elite as a spot-up shooter he basically makes it impossible for opponents to play zone:

The reason I’d always play man against the Spartans? Senior shooting guard Bryn Forbes is one of the nation’s foremost zone-busters. He has shot 15-of-26 on threes (that’s 57.7%!) against zones this season, according to Synergy Sports Technology’s logs, and is a 1.62 points-per-possession scorer overall against zone D. That’s a small sample, but Forbes has been so locked-in from long range this season (connecting at a 48.2% clip on 6.0 attempts per game) that I’d be scared to do anything other than assign a man defender with instructions not to help off of him in any situations.

The focal point of the offense is Denzel Valentine, especially in the absence of Tum Tum Nairn, the only true point guard on the roster. Valentine can do it all, as anyone who saw his 29-12-12 triple-double against Kansas can attest. He's an elite distributor, a 43% three-point shooter who can knock them down off the bounce, and a solid defensive rebounder. Valentine is a matchup nightmare for this Michigan squad, since the defender best-suited to guard him, Zak Irvin, will almost certainly have to match up against...

...freshman big Deyonta Davis, who's been a revelation for the Spartans up front. Davis leads the conference in block rate, makes 64% of his field goals, and is one of the best rebounders in the B1G on both ends of the floor. The other big, senior Matt Costello, is an even better rebounder—first in the conference in OR%, second in DR%—as well as a good shot-blocker and finisher around the hoop.

The top reserve is freshman gunner Matt McQuaid, who makes 42% of his threes. Sophomore Javon Bess and freshman Kenny Goins will rotate into the frontcourt; while neither has been particularly productive in conference play, they can both make an impact on the offensive glass.

THE RESUME

The losses have been covered above. MSU also has two signature non-conference wins over #11 Kansas and #9 Louisville to go along with their recent triumph over Maryland.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.



Four Factors explanation

As noted above, MSU is a great rebounding team on both ends of the floor. While they've struggled with efficiency inside the arc in Big Ten games, they've made up for it with those second chances and great outside shooting—43% from three-point range.

The Spartans have surpassed Purdue as the best two-point defense in the conference; they're top-five nationally in both two-point and three-point percentage against. While they're foul-prone, that's something Michigan hasn't been able to take advantage of very often.

THE KEYS

Crisp rotations. Denzel Valentine is a load to handle off the pick-and-roll, capable of pulling up for three, dishing to the rolling big, or taking it to the rack himself for a finish or a kickout. The two-man game is tough to handle on its own; then we get to the part where MSU can surround Valentine with elite shooters and still have a couple major threats to get offensive boards. Defending the Spartans will require everyone to step it up; if Michigan over-helps or falls asleep on rotations, they're going to get rained on.

Improve on the pick-and-roll. Michigan's hideous performance against Indiana featured a lot of wild drives to the hoop that were stymied by IU's big men. The Wolverines still have to find a way to get to the hoop, but they have to do a much better job of making life difficult on the opposing big men; Mark Donnal needs to bounce back after a poor performance in the pick-and-roll on Tuesday night—he must be more assertive when rolling to the hoop. If Donnal can be effective, Michigan may have a matchup to exploit when Zak Irvin or Duncan Robinson is going up against a big man.

Survive on the glass. Michigan can't get crushed on the boards. This is another area that will require a team-wide effort; if Derrick Walton isn't swooping in for a good 6-10 defensive boards, that'll be a worrisome sign.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 2.

It's difficult to feel optimistic about Michigan's ability to score in the halfcourt after Tuesday night. If MSU is making their outside shots, beating them will be a tall order.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.

Comments

MGoAndy

February 5th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^

Asked how many minutes LeVert will play in his first game back, Beilein responded,"It will be very minimal, I would think. I can't put a number on that one. I think it would depend on him, a lot. It's been five-and-a-half weeks. When he's out there running and doing some of the drills, you can see he's winded very quickly. So we're going to make sure we take our time with him because we want him at his best at the end of the season and we want him at his best after the season."

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2016/02/caris_levert_michigan_state.html#incart_river_index

Obviously don't want Caris sustaining some sort of long-term injury, but with the way the injury went down and so little information released about it, it's hard not to indulge the thought that they're being overly cautious and prioritizing Caris' draft stock over the team's success. Hope I'm wrong.

 

 

WolverineHistorian

February 5th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^

Really hard to get excited for this game after what happened Tuesday. Not that I was feeling too great after those underwhelming performances against lowly Rutgers and Minnesota either.

Friends and family are taking me out for my birthday dinner after the game. It would be nice to celebrate a win but I don't have a ton of confidence.

mgoblueben

February 5th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^

Really don't want to neg too much on LeVert but man, I thought we had something to play for this season and still do.  I understand thinking about his future, but I feel like you play for the love of the game and to compete. He's obviously cautious going into the draft, and we dont know what's going on injury wise, but would love to see him come out and compete through pain against a rival and to help his team.  Possibly his last chance to beat state.  

SFBlue

February 5th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^

Hate to say that if Michigan loses by 2, it will have exceeded my expectations here. State has found its groove, with Valentine back and healthy, and Michigan is living and dying with the three, playing subpar defense, and is without Caris Levert. 

We are reaching the point where getting Levert back will have diminished significance, as there is not much time for the team to gel around him. Frustrating year. 

Glennsta

February 6th, 2016 at 7:59 AM ^

We live/die by 3's but Sparties have been shooting a lot of them too.  You never know.  We have beaten Sparty as bigger underdogs.  

That being said,  I would not call the bookie (if i had one, which i don't, because it's illegal, legal disclaimer there) to plunk down $ on us today

MaizeNBlueTexan

February 5th, 2016 at 8:04 PM ^

I've said it all year. It all comes down to the center position / in the paint.

We can win this game if we shoot out of our freaking minds from the 3 position. Which is fun to watch and cheer for, but isn't reliable.

If MSU starts to get near doubling our points in the paint, it's a loss 100%.

Donnal can have a good game, but he isn't a big center type guy that can post up, get points in the paint, and even out the offensive/defensive rebounds as seen from a total Michigan rebounds vs MSU rebounds.

I think Michigan wins this game by 1 point only because it's at home. Doesn't matter if Levert plays or doesn't.

Edit: 3 position was meant to be, "3-point shooting"

Perkis-Size Me

February 5th, 2016 at 8:29 PM ^

Sadly after the IU game, I don't think this game is all that close. We have to shoot out of our God damn minds to have a shot, but I'd bet we lose by 10 anyway.

We have absolutely zero presence in the paint, and I'd bet Izzo and Co. plan to capitalize on that.




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Ty Butterfield

February 6th, 2016 at 12:42 AM ^

This won't be pretty. Can only hope that another embarrassing loss to Staee will make people realize that Beilein needs to go.

suh_dude_goblue

February 6th, 2016 at 7:59 AM ^

the amount of negative hate about John Beilein on this thread is actualy ridiculous. I have been a long time resident of the site, but first signed up for an account this past week. 

In this being my first post, I am going to reserve caution, but are you guys kidding me? I am a current student at UM, and it is embarrasing to hear the amount of unnecassary ignorant hate towards an outstanding human, and developer of talent. Where were u haters when we were in the Championship and Elite Eight? This is a rough time with some rough injuries, but this team can compete with anyone on any given night with JB's ability to gameplan and the teams ability to shoot the deep ball. If Duncan can get rolling, this can be a game. Need Donnal to step up big against DD (top 15 draft pick - get him out of EL) and Costello who is probably my most hated Spartan since Drew Nietzel. 

Xavier Simpson next year is going to be the biggest pull of JB's career, and Cassius Winston is going to bust in EL. Being from the area, I have seen him play many times, He is not the top 50 prospect that they make him out to be. Good player, but just solid. Nothing special, and Simpson is something special. This team needs a killer with Levert out, and Xavier could be that kid. This is still a team that could be a top 4 seed in the B1G, and with a few more conference wins could be a top 6 seed in March. I love John Beilein, and I can tell you if he gets fired (which he wont), he will be scooped up immediately. You want him to pay money and hookers for recruits? No, you dont, and he will continue to get lower top 100 players and develop them into first round draft picks. The maturation of Walton, Irvin, Donnal, etc. is ALL because of him and his staff. If u fire Beilein, you lose Lavall, Bacari etc. 

I am calling the upset, and pulling for the upset. Screw these Wilson tennis ball jersey wearing Spartans, Go blue baby. go blue 

flashOverride

February 6th, 2016 at 8:59 AM ^

"UM student" who misspells multiple commonly used words, check.

Joined the week of a Michigan-MSU game, check.

Felt need to explain how he lurked here for like, ever, but joined because posters were being a little too reasonable about their team's chances and not feeding the Sparty straw man narrative, check.

Go watch 300 or some other homoerotic bro-fest about men in skirts for your tenth time this week. 

suh_dude_goblue

February 6th, 2016 at 9:31 AM ^

Huh? You clearly didn't read my post man. I am a UM student current junior, so your jabs at my spelling and grammar are unneeded. 

I joined today because I am trying communicate to the idiots who said he should be fired. It is actually dispicable to even come close to think that. He is a top 10 CBB coach in terms of player development/offensive expertise, and is a basketball innovator. No one was using the stretch 4 until JB started doing it at Canisius and the like. Maybe his recruiting and defense is lacking on occasion(got screwed by putting all the eggs in the Tyus Battle/Jaylen Brown baskets), but when his teams are on. They are on! If you fired him, who would you want to replace him? He is an outstanding representative of the university, and Warde Manuel is not going to fire him after a lackluster couple years with some injuries. So while on one hand I appreciate the reasonable expectations for todays game, on the other I am disgusted by the fact people are calling for his head. 

Cant wait till they make a couple upsets in March with Caris finally healthy, and all of you are eating your words. This is still a good team with an outstanding coaching staff. Hungry dogs hunt best. 

 

 

In reply to by suh_dude_goblue

WindyCityBlue

February 6th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

...I don't want JB fired.  Unless something disasterous happens, I want JB to quit on his own terms (which I think will be in a couple years anyway).  With that said, its perfectly fine to critique our coach... which is what most people are doing here.  Only a small percentage of folks are calling for him to get fired.  I think you need to chill over what asmall percentage is saying.

Second.  While I like your optimism and love for JB, I think its clouding your objectivity here.  Nothing wrong with that though so I'm not hating on you.  Without going into all the detail, this team is not trending in the right direction.  Its alarming, and even more so for the fact that we were in the championship and elite 8 very recently.  We didn't really capitalize on that...at all.  For a program like Michigan, with resources we have, and with the "elite" coach we have in JB, its probably unprecendented..and not in a good way.  Some can be blamed on injuries, but most can be blamed on this staff.

We'll see what happens today and at the end of the season.  I'm not optimistic, but i'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong.  But if we don't make the tournament this year, somthing has to be done (again, not saying to fire JB).  I think the focus needs to be on recruiting better because I believe JB's player development skills are a little overrated. 

In reply to by suh_dude_goblue

Stringer Bell

February 6th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^

Bill Parcells once said "you are what your record says you are" and John Beilein's record says he's not a top 10 coach.  There is nothing more infuriating than watching us give up uncontested layups on the defensive end while being forced to settle for contested 3 pointers on the offensive end.  So while it's nice that he's an "innovator" and an offensive expert, if you're not winning games then it's all meaningless, and we're not winning games.

Richard75

February 6th, 2016 at 8:57 AM ^

The tournament is much more in doubt than people realize.

U-M's RPI sank from 29 to 40 post-IU, and it's in danger of sinking well into bubble territory. RPI is of course highly flawed, but it matters. With so few quality wins, Michigan's RPI has been solid because of a lack of home losses (home losses hurt the same amount that road wins help) and a good overall win %. That could change dramatically if we can't beat MSU, Purdue or Iowa at home.

There has been a lot of talk about how our resume is strong because we don't have losses to awful teams, but the selection committee doesn't look at things that way. Last year one of the members said it's about who you beat, not who beat you.

Also doesn't help that the Wisconsin game looks much tougher now than it did a month ago. This all has the makings of a disastrous finish.




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autodrip4-1968

February 6th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

Michigan will play much more effective than Tuesday. I'm sure there upset with their performance against Indiana. I expect a victory over Michigan State. Every team lays an egg every year and the game Tuesday was that. I would run full court press since Valentine is the main ball handler. Use small line-up to advantage.

WindyCityBlue

February 6th, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^

I predict that this game will represent a fork in the road for this program under JB



Only 2 roads



Road 1: aneurism of leadership #3 where someone goes off on the team and infuses a level of Rocky III fight #2 "you ain't so bad" swagger. We go on to win the game and use our new found confidence to a respectable showing in March. The fan base, who typically don't have high expectations, and Warde Manual are placated.



Road 2: we get throttled much like we have against most other teams with a pulse. It looks more like Rocky III fight #1. It knocks the wind out of us and we can't get any momentum the rest of the year. Caris sees no reason to come back and potentially hurt his draft spot. We struggle to the end of the season to the ncaa bubble or most likely NIT bid.  Those fans who think JB can do no wrong will think of some excuse for him.  Others will start to lose faith JB if they haven't already.  The fans will be divided and Warde Manual will get jittery.



Which road do we take? Stay tuned until later today.








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suh_dude_goblue

February 6th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^

I honestly think Caris is out regardless. Too much at stake, and this season shows how paper thin he is. We can only dream what a full season with him fully healthy would be like.

Very sad, I think he could have made a run at NPOY considering its pretty much Buddy Hield vs. the field at this point.