Preview: Michigan State Comment Count

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irvin-msu

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (13-12, 6-7 B1G) at

Michigan State (17-8, 8-4)
WHERE Crisler Center,

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 9 pm ET, Tuesday
LINE MSU -2 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

PBP: Mike Tirico

Analyst: Dan Dakich

THE US

While there's still hope that Derrick Walton will return before the season ends, he won't be back in uniform tonight. 

THE STAKES

Losing four in a row has put Michigan in danger of missing the NIT. The Bracket Matrix listed M as a six-seed when they updated at the end of last week; DRatings put them as the last three-seed; Big Apple Buckets placed them as a five-seed before the Illinois loss.

While Michigan finishes with two very winnable games (at Northwestern, Rutgers), they probably need to pull an upset in one of these next three much more difficult games (MSU, OSU, at Maryland) to feel comfortable with their postseason chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

As for pride, Michigan hasn't lost to State at Crisler since 2010, when the Spartans got away with murder on the would-be game-winning lob to Deshawn Sims.

THE LAST TIME

Led by Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan almost pulled off a shocker in the Breslin Center, surging in the second half before going scoreless in overtime. The Wolverines haven't won since.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 20 Travis Trice Sr. 6'0, 170 80 25 No
Disciplined, productive distributor. Dangerous outside shooter. Not great inside arc.
G 5 Bryn Forbes Jr. 6'3, 180 68 15 No
Spot-up gunner hitting 46% of threes.
G 45 Denzel Valentine Jr. 6'5, 220 75 28 No
Does a bit of everything: rebounding, passing, shooting, and hilarious turnovers.
F 22 Branden Dawson Sr. 6'6, 225 84 22 Very
Great athlete, monster on the boards, excellent defender. Not a shot creator.
F 34 Gavin Schilling So. 6'9, 240 45 18 Very
Solid rebounder and rim protector. Decent finisher.
F 10 Matt Costello Jr. 6'9, 245 48 18 Very
Very similar minutes and profile as Schilling. Eminently elbowable face.
G 11 Lowrawls "Tum Tum" Nairn Fr. 5'10, 170 41 13 Very
All-pass, no-shoot PG who's prone to freshman mistakes.
G 3 Alvin Ellis So. 6'4, 205 18 14 Yes
Getting minutes with Javon Bess hurt. Has been really bad this year.

THE RESUME

Since the last meeting, MSU dropped a home game against Illinois, blew out Northwestern on the road, and most recently staved off Ohio State at the Breslin Center on a game-winner by Denzel Valentine. The Spartans are currently on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Michigan can play spoiler.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Very little has changed since the last preview. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine get the offense going, and Michigan can't give either room on the perimeter, especially on the break. Branden Dawson is a rebounding machine. Bryn Forbes is a pure gunner. Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello provide a solid, if unspectacular, big man duo.

Interestingly, MSU's game notes list Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn as the starter at the point over Trice. That's been the case the last two games—though Trice is still playing starter-level minutes—and Nairn rewarded Tom Izzo's trust with an efficient outing against Ohio State: seven points on three shots, five rebounds, and four assists against just two turnovers. Nairn had a rough outing in the first matchup, but he's obviously been more effective of late.

Javon Bess, who was limited to ten unproductive minutes in the first MSU game, is out indefinitely with a foot injury. (Yes, that sounds familiar.) That means sophomore Alvin Ellis will get a few more minutes at guard off the bench. Ellis didn't play in the first game and he's struggled mightily this season, posting identical 3/15 marks both inside and outside the arc while turning the ball over on 25% of his possessions. Marvin Clark, a 6'6" freshman wing who's seen sporadic minutes in conference play, could also play a small role.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.



Four Factors explanation

The Spartan defense is both imposing and, on paper, not a good matchup for Michigan. They're first in the conference in defensive efficiency, defensive rebounding rate, opponent 3P%, and block rate, and they're third in 2P% against. MAAR managed to get to the hoop and finish against MSU the first time around; minus the surprise factor, that will be tough to manage tonight.

The MSU offense is great on the glass and dangerous from beyond the arc. They turn the ball over more than is ideal, and free throw shooting is their Achilles heel—they're last in the B1G at 61.2%.

THE KEYS

Scrap the zone. As Dylan notes, MSU lit up Michigan's zone defense at Breslin, scoring on 11 of 16 possessions. Going man-to-man puts a lot of pressure on Aubrey Dawkins and Zak Irvin, who'll have to shut down the versatile Denzel Valentine and contend with Branden Dawson on the boards, respectively. Against a team that passes the ball as well as State does, however, that's the better option than allowing a parade of layups and corner threes.

Adjust to the adjustment. Since that first MSU game, opponents have slowed down MAAR by collapsing on him when he drives to the hoop, forcing him to give up the rock in uncomfortable positions; previously, he'd almost always gone to the rim, but as of late he's wasted many of his possessions coughing up the ball. Michigan is still going to rely on MAAR to create offense; it's time for him to start anticipating pressure and be better at identifying where his shooters are going to be when he forays into the paint.

Do something, actual bigs. Michigan got a surprisingly solid performance out of Max Bielfeldt in the first game, and there's something to the idea of putting him out there against Dawson, which Beilein did pretty much out of necessity the first time around. M's gotta get more of the center-sized centers, though: Doyle got just three points and a rebound in 15 minutes, while Donnal—still sick at the time—logged a DNP. MSU rebounded 37% of their misses in the first game; if they repeat that performance, it's going to be hard for Michigan to keep it as close in the second.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 2.

After the game in Breslin, it's impossible to rule anything out. That said, these teams are moving in opposite directions, and at this point State has a lot left to play for, as well.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. The Only Colors preview.

Caris LeVert is projected 29th in Chad Ford's latest mock draft, with Ford noting he'd be "5 to 10 spots higher" if not for the injury ($).

Austin Hatch will receive the USBWA's Most Courageous Award for 2015, which is presented during Final Four weekend.

Comments

flashOverride

February 17th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^

I see Robinson and Stauskas will be in attendance tonight. Hopefully not to have us all thinking about what a massacre this game would be if they and their fellow early departures were still playing, instead of a tough loss by an undermanned team. Current squad just needs to find a way! Go Blue!!!

ijohnb

February 17th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^

that they have just hit their stride and that bodes poorly for us.  I am encouraged by the fact that we are playing with really nothing to lose at this point, and that is good news for a team starting 3 freshman.  This is a really hard one to call.  I truly could see a 20 point win for either team.  Michigan State destroys an undermanned Michigan team who has had their will taken from this over the last two weeks; or, a Michigan team who has been close to that moment for two weeks now finally puts it together against an overconfident and unsuspecting MSU team.  I can buy both of those narratives. 

Ballislife

February 17th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^

If we either shut down MSU's rebounding capacity or shut down/slow down at least one of the three heads of the shooting Cerberus that is Trice, Forbes, and Valentine, I think M has at least a decent chance of winning. Plus the incentive of playing spoiler is always a good thing.

umchicago

February 17th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^

JB has had 4 days to prepare for sparty.  sparty has had only two days.  JB may by the best at prepping against a team and 4 days will be huge for these youngsters.

ijohnb

February 17th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

whatever - what if Michigan wins out?  What if they win out and win 1 BIG tourney game, 2 BIG tourney games?  20-13.  What if?  Based on their performances and near misses, I don't see a game remaining that they can't win.

ijohnb

February 17th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^

that Illinois game was absolutely huge for bubble possibilities.  I did not understand why it upset me to the degree that it did until I really start to think about it.  That would have been a regular season sweep agaisnt presumably the last team on schedule to get in the tourney.  That could have really turned the table for us.  Damn shame.

Muttley

February 17th, 2015 at 5:59 PM ^

for NCAA Tourney purposes.

If by some miracle we were to win out we would have the late season surge effect, although that's not supposed to count for too much.

One win in the BTT would put us at 18-13 (Not happening).  Two 19-13 maybe.  Three w/ loss in BTT Final 20-13 and I think we're in.

Just winning the BTT is more probable.

Blueverine

February 17th, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^

we can:

- Win tonight.

- Win remaining home games and at NW.

- Beat any team in the league except Wisky on a neutral court.

With a ton of luck, someone else upsetting Wisky, top performances from everyone and a healthy DW, we can win the B10 tournament. This team does not quit and no team in this league is unbeatable.

Gimmiedat87

February 17th, 2015 at 3:14 PM ^

I think the one of the most imporant keys to this game is MAAR & Dawkings staying out of foul trouble.  In the first meeting when those two went to the bench MSU went on one of there runs in the 1st half.  No offense to Dakich or Longacre but they just seemed overmatched out there.

ijohnb

February 17th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^

fact that you still just refer to it generically as "technology" confirms that you do in fact suck at it.  As do I.  Anything that; has to do with, ever had anything to do with, originated from an idea spawned by - a computer (or really just anything that has buttons that are pressed) is always just technology.

Michigan4Harbaugh

February 17th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^

Ty Butterfield is incredibly negative when it comes to Michigan basketball. The other day he remarked that there isn't one winnable game left on the schedule. Cut back on listening to The Smiths and Morrissey man! Go Blue!! We are overdue for some subs!!

bronxblue

February 17th, 2015 at 5:55 PM ^

it would be nice for UM to get a break one of these games and pull an upset, but this feels like a station going down the drain a bit, and MSU is going to be playing their best tonight.

Muttley

February 18th, 2015 at 2:01 AM ^

from here out as we're 12-12 excluding the D2 Hillsdale win.  (The NIT no longer has an explicit .500 requirement, but has never extended an invitation to a sub-.500 team.)

A win tonight would make that much easier.  We would clinch a .500 record w/ wins @NW and home against Rutgers.  Or we could split with @NW/Rutgers and win one BTT game.

Conversely, if we lose tonight, should we win both @NW and home against Rutgers, we would need either 1) an upset of OSU at home 2) an upset at MD or 3) THREE BTT wins.

MontuckyYooper

February 17th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^

I think Denzel Valentine is my most-hated MSU basketball player of all time.  Dude has something to say after every play he makes.  And he's ugly.  And I bet he smells bad. And I bet it's kind of gross when he rubs up against you on the court.  

ANYWHOO; I want to see him humbled tonight.  Get the fuck off our court.

twu49379

February 18th, 2015 at 4:58 AM ^

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