Preview: Miami (Not That Miami) 2014 Comment Count

Brian

Essentials

cradle-of-coaches[7]

WHAT Michigan vs Miami

(Not That Miami)
WHERE Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor MI
WHEN 3:30 Eastern

September 13th, 2014
THE LINE M –33.5
TELEVISION BTN
TICKETS Slightly cheaper than last week: 20 bucks
WEATHER Partly cloudy, 60

0% chance of rain

light winds

Tip of the hat there.

Overview

evc_20131106_Bowling_Green_vs_Miami_OH_160077[1][5]

This is not a good scoreline.

This isn't Bo's Miami. The EDSBS commentariat's preferred term to distinguish this Miami from the other one is "puntin' Miami," and it's not like the other Miami has been Oregon this last little bit. Miami is bad. Miami is coming off losses to Marshall and Eastern Kentucky. They've already suffered 21 penalties. Miami is probably about as good as Appalachian State (not THAT Appalachian State).

So this is a good opponent for right now.

Run Offense vs Miami (Not That Miami)

ef38e37f2cf9ad5b2e2ce9f053b02942-img1[2]

guys chasing guys

Marshall was a very good run offense a year ago and picked up where they left off in their opener, with Devon Johnson ripping off a 55-yarder and acquiring 151 on just 19 carries. This continues a theme for the Redhawks from last year, when Miami was gashed for a whopping 5.1 yards a carry en route to a rush defense that was statistically worse than Michigan's rush offense last year. Think about that.

Miami ceded 223 rushing yards in an average outing last year; they were a MAC version of Purdue. While they did choke out I-AA EKU, if Michigan has any intention to prevent people on ledges across the Michigan diaspora from jumping they will have to mash this defense.

Survey says… probably! Both DEs check in at 245 and neither DT hits 290; their "OLB" is ND (sigh) transfer Lo Wood, who you may remember is a cornerback. They were very bad last year and seem pretty bad this year. Possibly the most interesting matchup will be DE Bryson Albright, who hit double digit TFLs a year ago, against either of Michigan's noob tackles.

This will be a test of what Michigan wants to do for the rest of the year.  This is a game where you'd think they might be able to manball up and manball it down the opponent's throat with a series of 1970s formations. And they may well do that: Appalachian State featured a lot more under center stuff than the ND game did.

Is the rest of the year going to be a passing spread-ish lineup? If it is against Miami, yes. If it's not… well probably yes. Something to keep an eye on.

 

Key Matchup: Michigan tailbacks versus their blocking allergy. Blocking allergies affect millions of Americans. Stop blocking allergies.

[Hit THE JUMP for Not That Notre Dame Quarterback.]

Pass Offense vs Miami (Not That Miami)

As bad as Miami was at defending the ground game last year, they were equally bad at the other stuff. They issued 8.1 YPA and allowed a 29/10 TD ratio. MAC Illinois, basically. They've started little better. Rakeem Cato ripped them for 8.2 YPA, 3 TD, and no INTs. EKU even managed to get to 7.1 with two QBs and one WR, who threw the winning TD(!). So that's bad.

How's that personnel looking?  

Miami's number one corner, meanwhile, started for the last four years... at point guard. On the basketball team. It's his first year on the football team. Their defensive backfield is pretty large—the former hoopster is actually the smaller of the two corners—but Miami isn't comfortable sticking them in press man. Here's a fun screenshot:

Marshall hit the slot receiver to the far side on a bubble screen that netted an easy eight yards on first down because look at all that grass.

This does not seem like a good thing.

For Michigan it's about pass protection, picking up blitzes, and hitting the copious open wideouts everywhere.

Key matchup: Devin Gardner versus Evil Devin. Bad Evil Devin!

Run Defense vs Miami (Not That Miami)

Carl Jones Ohio v Miami Ohio rnUBUWBYDbol[1][2]

don't expect much of this. expect this, but not much of it.

Miami runs a MAC-standard passing spread and has tried to avoid the ground as much as possible in their first two games, so this is not likely to be something they suddenly adopt against a Big Ten opponent. The Redhawks went for 100 and 86 yards in their first two games; if they exceed that number against Michigan it'll be a surprise.

Evidence of this: Miami leans heavily on Hendrix in this department. Yes, that guy you saw play for Notre Dame a couple years back who seemed about as mobile as Shane Morris. He has 29 non-sack carries, which is about half the team's total. Those have gone for 2.3 yards an attempt, so this is going about as well as you might expect. I imagine a lot of these carries are oh-pants scrambles like the one Ace captured for FFFF:

Meanwhile, Dawan Scott is listed at wide receiver but is second on the team in carries with 13, which have averaged a comparatively peppy 2.8 YPC.

So: this is a team whose tailbacks are averaging ten carries a game between them. They appear to be averaging decent yardage out of sheer shock. That is the kind of team we are talking about here. One that can't block a housecat. That's a bad example. Housecats are terrific at avoiding blocks. Housecat NT would be amazing. I digress.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Both tailbacks are named Spencer.

Michigan's DTs overwhelmed ND's interior line in the running game, this will be an opportunity to replicate that improvement. Focus on staying in your lanes, tackling when the tackles are there, and get solid linebacker play and this will be what it's been for Miami in the first two games: occasionally effective because the opponent is not expecting it, incapable of being relied upon.

Key Matchup: Ryan Glasgow versus Ryan Glasgow might be good? I thought he had a very good game against ND and will be looking to see if he can replicate that, insofar as you can against a team that is almost never running. I'm just trying to confirm hopes that he can really play.

Pass Defense vs Miami (Not That Miami)

andrewhendrix[1][2]

Notre Dame (sigh) transfer Andrew Hendrix pilots a spread to pass offense that is in fact an exact replica of Notre Dame's—minus that kind of talent. HC Chuck Martin used to be Brian Kelly's right hand man and he's imported the ND system in whole, or at least as much of it as you can when you're Miami.

Hendrix already has 101 attempts on the season, is averaging 6.4 yards an attempt, and has 4 TD to 4 INT. Don't mistake this for a pure dink and dunk, though: Hendrix's completion rate is about 50% and he's hit at least five passes of over 30 yards so far. Miami was competitive with Marshall in yardage and actually whipped up on EKU despite the loss, largely because the passing game was effective enough to keep the Redhawks on the field.

The twin issues: protection and Hendrix. He's already been sacked nine times and a goodly number of those rushes are scrambles that squeak across the line of scrimmage. And then there's a reason Hendrix couldn't ever beat out Tommy Rees. He was guiding Miami to what would have been its first win in over a year when a 55-yard pick six tied the score and eventually set up the defeat.

After getting torched by Notre Dame, Michigan looks to get closer to wide receivers in this game. Will they double down on the man stuff and try to get better, or will they junk it for more of a zone focus? I don't know. I don't expect to see either Peppers or Taylor this week since there seems to be no reason to risk ankle tweaks, so it'll be the same crew—do they improve?

Key Matchup: Michigan CBs versus man coverage. Obviously.

Special Teams

If this has any impact on the outcome of this game I'm going to be dead so I'm not looking up Miami's special teams units. For Michigan, it's about seeing if Matt Wile can put a ball between the uprights from outside 30 yards and maybe seeing if Will Hagerup can outpunt his coverage so spectacularly that the guy trying to catch it can't do so.

Key Matchup: YOU PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Intangibles

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are you there go-

NO

but you just said

YEAH SORRY I MEAN I AM HERE BUT WHATEVER YOU WANT THE ANSWER IS NO

oh okay thanks then

 

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • MNTM's offensive line appears to be getting in the way.
  • Hendrix is shredding Michigan corners in man coverage.
  • Anything seems vaguely Akron-y.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • You find a time machine and go back to this spring and show Greg Mattison the paper from right after the ND game and convince him to play zone.
  • Also you play the lotto when you do this.
  • And discover you're your own father!

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; –1 for SO SO BAD, –1 for Eastern Kentucky's Mascot Is The KFC Guy And You Still Lost To Them, –1 for 14 Game Losing Streaks Don't Usually End In Michigan Stadium, +1 for Oh Shit Did That Guy Coach At ND Recently?, –1 for Yeah But I Mean Cumong Man, –1 30-Point Spread)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 Not Again, Like Akron, +1 for Not Again, Like Toledo, +1 for Not Again, Like Pretty Much All Of Last Year, +1 for Bad Feels Man, –1 for At Least This Would Be Absolutely Clarifying In Event Of Loss)

Loss will cause me to... start drafting Profiles In Heroism about potential new coaches.

Win will cause me to... IMMEDIATELY FORGET ABOUT THE NOTRE DAME GAME FOREVER! YEAH! LET'S GO TEAM!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • OL paves Miami into a smooth glass-like substance that both backs use to cruise to big days, nobody is satisfied by their performance anyway.
  • Michigan plays a lot more zone with Countess out there.
  • The stadium looks a lot emptier than it did for the opener.
  • Michigan, 53-12

Comments

Everyone Murders

September 12th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^

 

I don't expect to see either Peppers or Taylor this week since there seems to be no reason to risk ankle tweaks, so it'll be the same crew—do they improve?

That makes sense.  However, did you think that Hoke would leave the first team in for the final series against ND?  And it seems they may have gotten Butt in a bit earlier than optimal (although Butt is explainable because ND is a particularly special game for him, and he had it as a target through his rehab).

maize-blue

September 12th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^

As some others have stated, it seems that not all the CBs have strength in man press. Could they run a hybrid coverage with some players playing tight and others playing more zone style? Is it even possible, scheme wise? Then they would be able to take advantage of each players strengths.

Indiana Blue

September 12th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

for getting me through this past week.  I pray that my tailgate is full of fun and beer, and that my football team has been punished enough for something they did, whatever it was.  Amen.   PS - it would be really cool if you humbled notre dame with a loss to Purdue.  See you Sunday.

Go Blue!

alum96

September 12th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

Umm... no.  I hate ND as much as the next guy but if Purdue - a team that got waxed by CMU - is even mildly competitive with ND it would mean very bad things.  Let ND get waxed by FSU or USC or Stanford.  Seeing Purdue competitive with ND would be incredibly damning.

notetoself

September 12th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^

man, i definitely would not cackle with knowing glee if i found out i was my own father. cackling mighy be a part of my reaction, but like - not the good kind of cackle.

M-Dog

September 12th, 2014 at 8:28 PM ^

Yes, exactly.  Don't forget that the Akron game was after UTLII . . . another ND face plant, Devin won the September Heisman, Beyonce . . . everything.  Even as a fan I had a massive hangover from that UTL II game were I just could not get up for Akron.  And all I had to do was watch TV.  Imagine how the team felt.
 
It was easy to brush off Akron as the hangover trap game of all time.  Just eke it out and get back to your old self next week.
 
But then when we did the same thing against a pathetic UCONN team . . . uh, oh.

alum96

September 12th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^

Reading this over my expectation is Miami OH runs the exact same quick strike offense ND did with far worse players running it.  So my question is why do you run zone concepts against a "3 step, dink and dunk for 6-8 yards" offense all day.  If you play off a guy 8-10 yards you leave this pass open all day.  Which will lead to the hair pulling from last year when said CB was not in the same TV screen angle as opposing WR.   Is it just the idea that Miami OH will self implode enough that we are fine with backing everyone off 10 yards?

And I'd like to see at least Lewis pressing his man.  He was not horrid at it last week, and if he was not horrid vs ND type players he should be "good" at it vs Miami OH players.  And this is the defense he is going to be in for the next 3 years so if he cannot practice press against Miami of OH when can be practice it in a live game situation?

Last question, why is everyone presuming Ray Taylor is suddenly a press corner.  We don't have a surplus of evidence of it.  This was a player a lot of people got on his case last year despite being a solid option out there and suddenly its "if Taylor and Peppers are healthy, badda boom."  Taylor played 1 series of press against a legit offense this year - here is to hoping his makeup fits this defense better than zone concepts but until it is done versus anyone outside of Minnesota (a team not familiar with "passing") App State or Miami OH, we have to get more evidence before saying he is a fit at this style.  It sounds like many have already made this an assumption.  The only thing I am assuming at this point is Taylor is better than Countess at press.  But that is not a high baseline based on recent evidence.

UMfan21

September 12th, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^

I would stick with press which is what they practiced all spring.  Hendrix isn't going to shred us the way Golson did.  Furthermore, the DBs need the extra reps in press before they play tougher opponents.  Hopefully someone teaches Countess how to prevent a free inside release on those slants, and we should be good to go.

Magnum P.I.

September 13th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^

Good post, as usual. There's a lot of dichotomous thinking going on round here regarding our CBs' abilities. All of a sudden, each of them is either a "press/man" CB or a "zone" CB. While in truth some of the guys might be better at one than the other, they're all high-level athletes who should be serviceable in either scheme. Pick one scheme, stick with it, and coach your world-class athletes to do it well.

markusr2007

September 12th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^

He and Beau Baldwin (EWU) are two coaches who have been ridiculously successful over a short span.

Martin did a good job at GVSU:

Year Team Overall Conference Standing Bowl/playoffs
Grand Valley State Lakers (Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference) (2004–2009)
2004 Grand Valley State 10–3 8–2 3rd L NCAA Division II Quarterfinal
2005 Grand Valley State 13–0 9–0 1st W NCAA Division II Championship
2006 Grand Valley State 15–0 10–0 1st W NCAA Division II Championship
2007 Grand Valley State 12–1 9–0 1st L NCAA Division II Semifinal
2008 Grand Valley State 11–1 10–0 1st L NCAA Division II Quarterfinal
2009 Grand Valley State 13–2 9–1 1st L NCAA Division II Championship
Grand Valley State: 74–7 55–3  
Miami RedHawks (Mid-American Conference) (2014–present)
2014 Miami 0–2 0–0    
Miami: 0–2 0–0  
Total: 74–9  

 

pearlw

September 12th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^

I think we may see Peppers in the game. If he really was close enough to playing last Saturday that they were evaluating him in pregame warmups, then I think a week later he might be healthy enough for us to see him. Of course, we are all going off no information on this.

MGlobules

September 12th, 2014 at 2:54 PM ^

So is it now I'm a man.

So it may be when I grow old and die:

The child is father to the fan.

 

And I could wish my days to be

Bound by wins over OSU, MSU, and ND."

 

William Hopwood Wordsmith

DonAZ

September 12th, 2014 at 2:58 PM ^

I am going to be really interested in the UFR for this game.

I like how the UFRs gauge the performance of the individual players at their positions. 

I'm hoping the UFR shows that we're getting better at each position and  player ... that despite the level of competition, each player is doing what they should do.

That will be a sign that perhaps we're turning a corner.

A UFR with lots of negatives for poor execution will make me cry.

champswest

September 12th, 2014 at 3:12 PM ^

a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.  We play press coverage (for practice, if nothing else) blitz the QB and come away with 3 or more turnovers.  If this game is close by halftime, I will be surprised.

slappy09

September 12th, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^

... that is excited for this game.

I actually grew up in Oxford and remember when they were called the Redskins.  In 5th grade our school had a building shortage so the University let the school district use the Stadium as our temporary 5th grade for a year.  Our classrooms were the position coaching rooms.  My room in particular was the Offensive Line Room.  Was really cool to see all the football things all over, but i'm sure the athletes hated it as half of the room was covered in 5th grade crap and the other half was their space.  Best part was recess, we use the main stadium field as our playground and where we ate lunch.  I remember when the players would come around for practice and we all thought how cool and how big they were... this game just brings back memories of my childhood...

mptesq63

September 12th, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^

 
Martin will make $450,000 this year at Miami, a heck of a lot of money he notes and more than enough for he, his wife and two children. Of course, he was making $650,000 at Notre Dame and the Irish likely would've gone higher if he used Miami as leverage. That isn't his way though. He didn't interview for every head job that was interested.
 
"I took a significant pay cut," he said. "Not small. Significant. That's where you have to be a little bit off."
 
He also could've held out for a different job and a bigger check either last winter or in another season or so. Notre Dame's former defensive coordinator, Bob Diaco, left last December for Connecticut where he's being paid $1.5 million with bonuses that could go much higher.