We better win this. Seriously.
Preview: Miami (Not That Miami)
Run Offense vs. Miami (Not That Miami)
This did not go so well against Utah. Michigan running backs collected 34 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, with 21 of those coming on one Brandon Minor dive up the gut. The offensive line was awful, the running backs tentative. Nick Sheridan ripped a ball away from Sam McGuffie, causing a fumble. At some point Greg Frey had an aneurysm.
So hurray for a MAC team that was 76th in rush defense last year, yielding 4.2 YPC. In games against BCS opponents (and Minnesota and Syracuse), M(NTM)U did this:
Miami lost the Cincinnati and Colorado games by vast margins, lost to Minnesota in OT, and beat Syracuse.
We can excuse the Orangemen from consideration if only because putting them anywhere near the same plane as Michigan football is reason for suicide or worse (Carrier Dome season tickets!). Other than that, we have two hideous things and one acceptable performance in a 47-10 loss that probably saw a lot of uninspired dives into the line.
Things got better as the season went along. The Redhawks finished fourth in the MAC in run defense. They also return six of their front seven, though the linebackers are overhyped because they all have a lot of tackles because the defense provided many opportunities to make them.
This continued into their season opener against Vandy. QB Chris Nickson, who you may remember playing Guy At The Bottom Of Huge Pile during the 2006 Vandy-Michigan game, blowed up, with 166 yards on 20 carries. As a whole, Vandy went for 269 yards on 50 rushes, 5.4 a pop. Vandy.
We’re not at the point where anyone can say anything about this Michigan team’s offense with confidence, but if we can’t plow these guys we’re in for a long, long year.
Key Matchup: The interior line versus their interior line. Junior Samoans had Michigan butts in the backfield much of the day; if this continues against Miami, look out.
Pass Offense vs. Miami (Not That Miami)
This also did not go well against Utah, though the line’s pass protection seemed okay. Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet combined to complete zero passes for a negative billion yards and threw Nazi Germany interceptions while fumbling Hindenberg times. Michigan scored Satan points.
Or something. Both quarterbacks looked spazzy, though Threet was significantly less so. The receivers caught what balls they could but struggled to get separation from the defensive backs. The line just barely held together. The results: yuck.
At Miami, three starters return to a secondary that was respectable (56th) in pass efficiency D in 2007. Vandy didn’t test this much, throwing only 16 passes. Think of Chris Nickson as Nick Sheridan who can run.
Why bother analyzing this? Sheridan looked awful, Threet slightly less awful. They’re going up against a MAC defense and should execute better; the real test will be to see if anyone can block for the short screens there will be a profusion of. I can’t tell you anything else. Hope for competence, fear reality.
Key Matchup: Dr. Completely Adequate Noodle Arm Quarterback versus Mr. Spaz.
Run Defense vs. Miami (Not That Miami)
Michigan’s newly svelte and angry defensive line had a banner day against Utah; now they come up against a Miami team that ground out 3.8 YPC and 96 yards against Vandy. Though Vandy was kind of shockingly good (32nd) against the run last year the Vanderbilt Sports Line was pleasantly surprised they kept it up:
the defense looked stout despite losing the linebacking corps and many of the heavies up front, as Mo Patton highlights in today's Tennessean.
This defense was not that defense that was pretty good against an SEC schedule, this defense is much younger. And just beat South Carolina, but have you seen South Carolina? How bad is NC State? I’m off topic?
Sophomore Thomas Merriweather had 59 yards on just 10 carries against the ‘Dores and appears to be your nominal starter; junior Andre Bratton had a much tougher go of things, with just 13 yards on 7 carries.
Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor the defensive line and linebackers held Utah to 36 yards rushing… sort of. A barrage of sacks saw Brian Johnson end the day with –66 yards; meanwhile thumping power back Matt Asiata averaged 5.9 a carry on an array of Incredibly Surprising Quarterback Draws and other carries that went straight up the middle. This could be a worrying sign that Michigan’s faulty interior run defense has not been repaired.
Key Matchup: Obi Ezeh versus expectations.
Pass Defense vs. Miami (Not That Miami)
Last week Michigan went up against a fifth-year senior with a history of excellent production when he managed to stay on the field. This week they’ve got junior Daniel Raudabaugh, who completed 55% of his passes last year, averaged 6.4 YPA against a MAC schedule, and threw 12 interceptions to twelve touchdowns. Against Vanderbilt he was 19 of 41 and threw three picks, though his coach thinks a couple of them were not his fault. Last year Miami was 102nd in passing efficiency.
That figures to go up this year. Last year every significant pass receiver graduated, as did the quarterback; this year all return. The top two guys are mighty mites, MAC versions of Deon Butler. They go by “Dustin Woods” and “Eugene Harris”. There is also a man named Fitz Bobo.
The Michigan secondary, on the other hand, was pretty excellent last week except for a huge Steve Brown screwup and the persistent inability of Michigan’s linebackers to cover anyone. The linebackers are getting switched around, but more comforting is the idea that going over the middle is kind of a dangerous proposition when you’re Daniel Raudabaugh and not a fifth-year senior.
The defensive line was all over Brian Johnson, sacking him six times and drawing four penalties based on their extreme pressure (two holding flags, two intentional groundins). Miami’s replacing a couple starters from a line that was 74th in sacks allowed last year; this should be a major advantage for Michigan.
Miami might break one big play when someone (Brown, Evans, Thompson) screws up in coverage, but it will probably be heavy on YAC. Leaving Raudabaugh in the pocket for extended periods of time will be unwise.
Key Matchup: Michigan linebackers against short annoying routes. Michigan needs to clamp down on the short passing game; covering the first receiver is likely to lead to major lost yards for Miami, as we saw in the second half of the Utah game.
Michigan’s special teams were an unexpected boon in the last game, blocking their first punt since Marquise Walker was on the team,—seriously—hitting a 50-yard field goal, getting a good kick return from Brandon Harrison, and just generally looking like a net benefit for the team.
The two downers were a shanked Zoltan quasi-half rugby punt and Donovan Warren’s punt return death wish—stick that hand in the air, son—but overall the Rodriguez era’s special teams debut was an excellent one.
Miami has an erratic kicker with some leg; he was only 50% on field goals from 30-39 last year. Their punter is excellent; their returns uninspiring.
Key Matchup: Don’t see one. Neither team is likely to get much of a punt return game going, and the kickers are the kickers. Maybe Miami Kicker Guy versus Makeable Field Goal.
In the past, this space used pictures of kittens to mock the idea that South Carolina’s 0-6-2 record since 1984 on the road against teams with mascots on the endangered species list had any relevance on the future. But it’s a new era, and Michigan’s coach is just about the complete opposite sort of coach. So what’s the opposite of a cat?
Garfield Minus Garfield is the opposite of a cat. It is the essence of anti-cat.
- The quarterbacks look equally spazzy.
- There’s no push from the offensive line.
- Michigan gets chunked up the middle again.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Miami’s quarterback looks like he has angry winged growths coming out of his armpits.
- That underneath coverage thing gets figured out.
- The game ends with Michigan ahead.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Wow We Suck, –1 for Wow They Lost To Vandy Handily, –1 for …And Any Half-Decent BCS Team Blew Them Out Last Year, +1 for Are We A Half-Decent BCS Team?, +1 for Spaz One or Spaz Two Starts At Quarterback, –1 for We’re Like A Two-Touchdown Favorite, Thanks Vegas! ).
Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for If This Is Not A Solid Victory, Look Out, –1 for Does It Really Matter, +1 for Yes, There’s A Bowl Streak, +1 for And They’re In The MAC)
Loss will cause me to... not read other Big Ten blogs for a week.
Win will cause me to... WOO MOTOR CITY BOWL HERE WE COME.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Michigan should win if only because they will physically overmatch Miami on defense in spectacular fashion. Okay, the Redhawks weren’t badly outgained by Vandy and Vandy just beat South Carolina, but… seriously, folks. I really doubt Miami will have an opportunity to make the plays Brian Johnson did.
Offensively, it will be ugly again but there should be some short fields and the team should be more functional if only because their performance last week was about as bad is it could feasibly be. If the OL can battle the DL to a stalemate and let Michigan’s skill guys take over, there will be a drive or three of actual length. Don’t expect fireworks; don’t expect last week.
Probably. I do take heart in the massive line (M –15) put out by Vegas.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Threet starts and plays most of the game; Sheridan sees a couple series here and there.
- Tim Jamison gets two sacks.
- Michigan’s run game is at least passable.
- Michigan, 24-13.
is if we EVER experience any horror-esque game anytime soon, i will greatly spurn any transitions of this blog to one about middle class white dudes.
defenders to be more hammers, and less nails this weekend... Shafer was most dissapointed in catching people instead of driving through people...
Michigan gets chunked up the middle again.
Wha? I didn't know I was s'posed to be playing in this game.
Carr (and virtually all others) used to say that the greatest improvement was between the first and second games. Given that all of Michigan's players are "first-years" this year, I anticipate vast improvement.
Oh, and the difference in opposition doesn't hurt, either.
they complete 5 consecutive passes at some point Saturday. Even if that means three on one drive and two on the next. A little rhythm and confidence would be nice.
I miss "+5 for Eff It, We Must Go To Columbus Undefeated." Maybe in 2010.
"Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet combined to complete zero passes for a
negative billion yards and threw Nazi Germany interceptions while
fumbling Hindenberg times. Michigan scored Satan points."
I could not stop laughing at this. Is it bad that I can laugh at a miserable quarterback situation?
See subject line. :'(
Before Brian got on the radio show, one of the guys fromt he show mentioned how Big Will was talking to his mom and dad before the game on the sidelines. He was talking about the players from Michigan whose bench press stats improved. I'm now wondering if he was trying to sell them(parents)on reasons to stay committed to Michigan. If he leaves, well,(long pause to hurl and regain composure) no comment. (Longer Pause...20 minutes spent looking at picture of jj from good times who is "medals" sign on pic.) BUT I DON'T GET IT! You're from metro Detroit, your son gets an offer to play at Michigan, you commit and then drop it. For what????? A pro scout could care less where he goes to school for one. And two.....I'll stop, just drive myself even more into this body of whisky. WTF though?
We need to hire Karl Rove to do a public makeover on Rich and the recruiting process or something. Anyone here a major player with Time Warner? Call some people and put the word out. Tell Mike Comrie to get the Duff at a game. Something. The guy who owns the Mets could give us some media friendly moments. I'm telling you that baton twirler guy has to go from the pre game he probably scared Will off.
If Threet starts and starts solid and then finishes lame or out of control. Bench him. I am guessing that's the issue and why he didn't start....no one knows what Threet will show up. Sheridan needs to see himself as the starting QB even when he doesn't start or play. Carrying Chad Henne's luggage was all he knew and now he's the default starter. Default of not bruddah, you gotta be da man. If there's drama at this position tomorrow I'm gonna be pissed.
According to Rivals Will has reopened his committment. MOTHER.FUCK.
That is a serious mother fuck too, not my usual sarcastic fuck...err...
Karl Rove is a great American. - Joe Biden
Mr. [Ellipses Man], what you've just said is one of the most insanely
idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling,
incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be
considered a rational thought. Everyone [on this board] is now dumber for
having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on
your soul. -Principal Anderson
This post made me laugh despite my concern for our bowl and non-losing season streaks. Plus Garfieldminusgarfield is MUCH funnier than the regular comic IMO. Who know that the orange cat was such a bummer? I guess he does frown a lot.
Michigan shouldn't give up 13 points and I somehow doubt we will score more than 20.
I predict: M 17, MiaOH 3.
Whatever QB starts, whoever is the running back.....what matters most is attitude. Screw the chest bump. I favor the right hook if your teammate does something extraordinary. They say to play with controlled aggression. My old coach said a violent possession was the real way to play. The offense needs to find who is tough and who is going to lead tomorrow. It's d-day for them guys. Not an end of the world moment but definitely an end to questions.
Good stuff, as always......next year make sure you do one for the opener, whoever it ends up being. Do we even know that yet?
As for tomorrow, I'll go under the total as well. Miami gets a TD early thanks to our offense and we chase that all day until a big burst in the second half highlighted by a scoring play by the offense of over 50 yards and a defensive score. KC continutes to show that he's a weapon. We match last week's 23. UM 23 M(NTM)U 7.
Obligatory "Miami was a university before Florida was a state" comment.
Miami (Not That Miami) University had been founded while Florida was still part of Spain.
Miami (Not That Miami) University had not only been founded before the city of Miami was founded, it had closed and re-opened before the city of Miami was founded.
(Why yes, I did go to Miami (Not That Miami). Why do you ask?)
To tell the truth, I only have very slightly mixed feelings about this game. My hope is that Miami loses, and loses convincingly but not that badly. For whatever reason I've never managed to shake my childhood allegiance to Michigan. Or the Lions, and I often really wish I could.
and go to USC. Michigan's out of the top 25, headed for a mediocre season at best, while USC is #1 and likely involved in the NC chase all season. He'll get far more exposure playing for the Trojans, who have a great record of putting DLs into high draft positions, which means far more money for Will and his family. It's a no-brainer for him.
I'm in Dubai and doubt I will find an open sports bar... Please help me out..