Preview: Maryland Comment Count

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testudo

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT Michigan (14-13, 7-8 B1G) at

Maryland (23-5, 11-4)
WHERE Comcast Center,

College Park, Maryland
WHEN Noon ET, Saturday
LINE Maryland -8 (KenPom)
TV ESPN

PBP: Bob Wischusen

Analyst: Dan Dakich

Right: Testudo, circa 1942. Yes, that's intended to look like a turtle.

THE US

Once again, it doesn't look like Derrick Walton will be available. John Beilein said today that Walton underwent X-rays (negative) earlier this week, then tried to return to basketball activities on Thursday, but didn't complete the workout.

THE STAKES

Despite the win over Ohio State, Michigan is still on the NIT bubble. They're projected as a six-seed on three NIT bracketology sites. In all likelihood, the Wolverines are going to need to win two of their last three regular season games (securing a winning record) and perhaps one more in the BTT to secure a bid. Remember, that NIT bubble shrinks every time there's a surprise conference tournament winner that wouldn't otherwise make the NCAAs.

As Drew Hallett points out, there's another seeding watch: BTT seeding, which could become very important if Michigan loses two of their last three. If the season ended right now, Michigan would be the nine-seed, playing #8 Illinois in the second round for the right to face top-seeded Wisconsin in the quarterfinals. That scenario is far from ideal, of course, but Michigan likely has to win out and get help to rise to the #7 seed and avoid the Badgers.

Winning this game would have a small chance of helping out Michigan's BTT seeding; more importantly, it would clear a major hurdle towards securing an NIT bid.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 2 Melo Trimble Fr. 6'3, 190 86 25 No
Impressive freshman gets to line a ton, hits outside shots.
G 44 Dez Wells Sr. 6'5, 215 74 31 No
Handles ball a lot. Selective but very efficient 3P shooter. Draws contact.
G 20 Richaud Pack Sr. 6'4, 190 59 12 Kinda
Very underwhelming shooting numbers, but gets to the line.
F 10 Jake Layman Jr. 6'9, 205 73 22 No
Skilled stretch 4 who can shoot, attack the basket, defend, and play the 5.
C 35 Damonte Dodd So. 6'11, 245 36 14 Very
Good rebounder and shot-blocker, but very turnover- and foul-prone.
F 1 Evan Smotrycz Sr. 6'9, 235 50 17 Kinda
Fully grown Lobstrycz having a very down shooting year.
F 11 Jared Nickens Fr. 6'7, 200 45 14 No
Spot-up gunner hits 40% of threes.
F 25 Jon Graham Sr. 6'8, 230 30 14 Very
Low usage rebounding specialist. Especially good on offensive glass.

THE RESUME

Maryland has only lost one home game all season—to #2 Virginia, way back in early December. On Tuesday, they successfully defended their turf against Wisconsin, pulling off a 59-53 upset.

No, this won't be easy.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Maryland's attack is highlighted by a couple of attacking guards. Melo Trimble has been one of the most impressive freshman in the conference. A proficient outside shooter, Trimble gets most of his production attacking the basket—his free throw rate is over 72%, and he hits 87% of his freebies. Dez Wells, the team's lead guard, is a more selective—and more efficient—three-point shooter who also gets to the line frequently. Both are solid, not spectacular, at distributing the ball without turning it over.

Richaud Pack regained his starting role this month after briefly losing it to Jared Nickens. Like Trimble and Wells, Pack gets to the line often; unlike those two, he doesn't do much else to get the offense going, shooting 33% on both twos and threes in Big Ten play. Nickens, who rotates into the lineup frequently, is almost exclusively a three-point shooter—he hits 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Stretch four Jake Layman is the third option, and a quality one at that. As you can see, he's an effective scorer from pretty much anywhere:

Layman is also a very good defensive rebounder and decent shot-blocker. He'll see a good number of his minutes at center, where Damonte Dodd—a more traditional five—starts but plays reserve-level minutes.

The team's most-utilized reserve is a familiar face: Evan Smotrycz, the former Wolverine. His game hasn't changed much, and he's really struggling from the field this season—he's shot 38% from two and 26% from three in B1G play.

THE TEMPO-FREE



Four Factors explanation

It's easy to see where the battle will be when Maryland has the ball. They're not good at much except getting to the line, which they do really well; meanwhile, John Beilein teams are notoriously foul-averse, and this one is no different.

On the other end, the Terps defend the boards well and keep opponents off the line; otherwise, they're pretty average across the board.

THE KEYS

Zone 'em. Maryland gets to the hoop a lot, draws a ton of fouls, and prefers transition defense to crashing the boards. Playing zone is probably Michigan's best bet to keep Trimble and Wells from having big days. They just have to keep track of the shooters—Wells, Layman, and Nickens when he's out there—when doing so; Trimble and Wells are both adept at driving-and-kicking.

Alternatively, Rahk. OR, Michigan could try to lock down Trimble with Adbur-Rahkman, who did impressive work man-up against D'Angelo Russell last weekend. The worry here: with Rahk expending so much energy on defense, he had a down game offensively against Ohio State.

Irvin in attack mode. Maryland will often put three forwards out there—usually some combination of Nickens, Layman, Smotrycz, and Dodd—which should mean Zak Irvin will be matchup up against a defender he has an athletic mismatch against. It'd be really encouraging as we near the end of the season if Irvin looked willing and able to take bigger, slower defenders off the dribble and finish at the basket; he's been getting better at this of late.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Maryland by 8.

I mean, they just beat Wisconsin, and Michigan... isn't Wisconsin, especially on the road.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Testudo Times preview. Really enjoyable feature on the coaching aspirations of Andrew Dakich from the Daily's Lev Facher:

Everybody was on board except for Dakich’s son, Andrew. He told his father the obvious — they needed just two points to tie, not three.

The elder Dakich, now a college basketball analyst at ESPN, recalled the ensuing interaction like it was yesterday: “Every single guy in the huddle turned and said, ‘Andrew, shut the hell up!’ ”

Sounds about right.

Comments

Jonesy

February 27th, 2015 at 8:09 PM ^

Surprise conference tournament winners that wouldnt otherwise make the tournament mean one less quality team will get an at-large bid which means one more team that will take a spot in the NIT which means one less spot available for Michigan.  However since a bubble bursts by expanding then one would think a bubble shrinking would be a good thing and what he describes is not a good thing so he should have said the bubble grows, I suppose.  Either way, I knew what he was saying when I read it.

AsianInvasion

February 27th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

Finally the unholy marriage of the Terps and the B1G puts my true loyalties to the test.  

Spent my first 18 years of life growing up in Maryland, rooting for the Terps.  

Fell in love with Desmond Howard and the Fab Five and Michigan became my college of choice as a 10 year old and was fortunate to live out this dream as an undergraduate 8 years later.

How do you reconcile love of your hometown team with the love of your alma mater?

Gun to head I GO BLUE and I will be rocking Maize and Blue at the Xfinity Center tommorrow afternoon, but deep down inside I could see myself rooting for a close loss to preserve Maryland's hopes at a top 2 seed.  

So wierd.  When the move was announced I thought it was great to be a fan of two teams with a shot to take down the buckeyes and spartans, two chances to take down a big ten title, two chances to make the NCAA tourney...

Now when faced with a head to head matchup, I find myself conflicted and am curious to see whether the throng of rabid Maryland fans will tug at my hometown heartstrings with their enthusiasm or further harden my Wolverine resolve with their obnoxious behavior.

Equal parts excited, anxious, and conflicted about this game.

TLDR: Grew up in MD as Terps Fan, returning to College Park as a Michigan Fan.  Emotions conflicted.

 

 

AsianInvasion

March 2nd, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^

If you're looking to settle down with your family, I would seek alternatives in Montgomery or Howard county.  Better Schools, much less crime, and higher property resale value, albeit at a much higher cost.  

Bowie and Severna Park are not bad options if you don't want to pay the MoCo/HoCo premium.

If you're not worried about schools and such, I'd prioritze commute over anything else.  The beltway is god damn nightmare and anything that minimizes the distance you have to travel would be my focus.  Access to metro would be key if you work in DC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

umchicago

February 27th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^

reminds me so much of trey burke as a freshmen.  maybe a slight edge to burke on being a distributor but maybe a slight edge to trimble on shooting.  both can dribble drive among the bigs too.

if he doesn't go pro, he may be the best PG in the country next year, like burke.

TrueBlue2003

February 27th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^

Not a bad comparison.  I just checked his stats against Trey's freshman year and Trey was a bit better distributor but Trimble is so much better at drawing fouls and making foul shots that he is definitely having a more efficient freshman year.  That said, it still amazes me Beilein won the conference that year with Stu and Novak starting, and JMo and Smot the only bigs (weird to think the Smotrycz was on that BIG championship team, I remembered him leaving before we did anything big). Trimble has more to work with than Trey did as a freshman, but you're right, he should be right up there with the best next year (and probably already is).

7words

February 27th, 2015 at 7:01 PM ^

So how many minutes does Smotrycz get in a game?  Is it that many more than what he might have gotten if he stayed here?  Not to mention he could have had 2 pretty damn good expereinces in the NCAA tourney and a few BIG titles.  

Jonesy

February 27th, 2015 at 8:15 PM ^

Smot didn't leave because he wasnt playing enough, he left because Beilein made him play the 5 and he hated playing the 5, he just wanted to lurk on the 3 point line and shoot.  Kinda like how GRIII didnt want to be a 4 and maybe would have stuck around longer if he was a 3 and didnt have to bang with the bigs every game.

Wolverine In Iowa

February 27th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^

We're going to get flayed, unfortunately.  But I hate Maryland with the fire of a thousand suns, and so GO BLUE.  I grew up in Fairfax County, VA, and we just hate that friggin' state and school.

Ray

March 1st, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^

I actually think 1942"s turtle looks appropriate for the era: uncertain about new conflicts, a bit uncomfortable (given that Pearl Harbor happened at at the very end of 1941).  "Ok, we have to do this, how are we going to make it happen?

If you look at their 1944 mascot though, it's totally appropriate for a Normandy/Saipan/Leyte period of time: We've got this.  We're in charge.