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Preview: Kansas

By Tim — December 18th, 2009 at 3:27 PM — 21 comments
Filed under:
  • basketball
  • game previews
  • kansas
  • that's racist

The EssentialsKU.gif

WHAT Michigan v. Kansas
WHERE Lawrence, KS
WHEN 12:00PM EST

December 19th, 2009
THE LINE Michigan +13.5*
TELEVISION ESPN

*Lines brought to you by the best sportsbook on the internet.

Michigan

The Wolverines finally stopped the bleeding on Sunday with a win over Detroit, but the task won't be so simple to duplicate in Lawrence. Traveling to face the number one team on the road is seen by the Wolverines as an opportunity. "I don't think it's different from the UConn trip [last year]," said DeShawn Sims, "We definitely need it. There's not going to be too many opportunities besides the best teams in the Big Ten."

A win Saturday would not only redeem a lackluster non-conference performance from the Wolverines, it would also prove something to the team itself. "It would just show that we've made some adjustments since the early part of the season," said Sims, "We're becoming more comfortable with what we have now, and coach made some great adjustments this week and last week. We're just finally coming along, coming around the corner."

Beilein, whose teams have performed their best when they have a lot of time to prepare for a single game, says he doesn't change anything in the team's preparation: "We do the same thing that we've done for any game we ever play, really. We don't go in there to do anything except to do our best. Whether we're playing one of our early season games or we're playing the #1 team in the country, we just expect to try to play our best."

What, specifically have the Wolverines been working on in practice over the long week? "We've been working on a lot of different things. A lot of man-to-man defense, a lot of boxing out," said Beilein.

The return of a fully healthy Zack Novak, who played against Detroit at less than 100% and missed the Utah game entirely, should be some help to Michigan.

Kansas

The Jayhawks are the number one team in the nation for a reason. They've run roughshod over every team they've played except for Memphis and, oddly, UCLA. "There's certain times when you'll go into some of these arenas, and I would expect I'll look around and go, 'so this is Kansas,'" said Beilein said. Sims knows the crowd will play a huge factor. "I've seen Kansas on TV and you can definitely hear the crowd through the TV," he said.

The Jayhawks' roster is loaded. Two of the top players in the country, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, roam the floor in Lawrence. They get Xavier Henry a lot of good looks, helping him to one of the top eFG% numbers in the nation. "You've got the great combination of inside-outside threats," said Beilien. "You've got Collins, who by by himself can win a game. Aldrich inside, he's just a mountain with really long arms. And now Henry's shooting over 50 percent? He's getting some pretty good looks because he's got a great point guard and a great center." Adding, uh, injury to more injury, guard Brady Morningstar will make his season debut for the Jayhawks after serving a DUI suspension.

For a team struggling like the Wolverines, Kansas will be a difficult matchup. Beilein: "They rebound and they guard and they have assigned tasks and they're just difficult to stop." 

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Kansas: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Kansas Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Kansas Def eFG% 236 2 KKK
Mich Def eFG% v. Kansas eFG% 231 6 KKK
Mich TO% v. Kansas Def TO%
4 68 M
Mich Def TO% v. Kansas TO% 36 18 K
Mich OReb% v. Kansas DReb%
234 136 K
Mich DReb% v. Kansas OReb% 319 10 KKKK
Mich FTR v. Kansas Opp FTR
277 94 KK
Mich Opp FTR v. Kansas FTR
3 107 MM
Mich AdjO v. Kansas AdjD 156 6 KK
Mich AdjD v. Kansas AdjO 153 2 KK

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc. I swear I'm not a Klan member.

Commence the fetal position and whimpering. Kansas is better than Michigan at almost everything. The Wolverines might get a couple turnovers, but they haven't had to defend a player like Cole Aldrich yet, and the opponent free throws might be misleading in this instance. Michigan's worst aspect, defensive rebounding, is one place Kansas really excels. This is a major statistical mismatch.

The only way to see Michigan coming away with a win is to make a couple assumptions. 1) Michigan has been playing well below their potential this season (something most observers would agree with). 2) Michigan is capable of turning around and playing well above that potential in a road game against the top team in the country.

Zack Novak thinks that's a possibility, saying "It's gotta bring the best out of you. We're looking forward to the challenge." There's something to be said for a John Beilein-coached team playing very well with a long break between games to rest up (Manny Harris didn't practice on Wednesday, according to Beilein) and prepare a gameplan. Still, the task may be too tall to accomplish.

This is a game that Michigan should be lucky to keep close. If the 3s start falling, like they did in last year's upsets over UCLA and Duke, there's a chance to be within striking distance in the second half. More likely, the team has a couple of those offensive slumps that we've come to know and despise and the Jayhawks capitalize with big runs and an eventual 20-point win.

Elsewhere

UMHoops talks to David Merritt and Kansas blog The Jayhawker about the upcoming game.Ann Arbor.com's Jeff Arnold talks about Michigan's turnaround project that starts with the Kansas game.

Also, not Kansas-related, but 2010 MI SG Trey Zeigler talked to WDFN yesterday about various topics, including his recruitment. If Manny leaves following this season, Zeigler becomes a must-land prospect. Duke is getting involved.

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December 18th, 2009 at 3:33 PM | tim... (Score:1)
GOBLUE4EVR
GOBLUE4EVR's picture
Joined: 01/09/2009
MGoPoints: 920

shouldn't the line be +13.5??? because what you have now means that michigan is favored.

@GOBLUE4EVR

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December 18th, 2009 at 3:37 PM | I was wondering the exact (Score:1)
jcgary
jcgary's picture
Joined: 07/28/2008
MGoPoints: 579

I was wondering the exact same thing. I wouldn't think any sportsbook would have Michigan favored by 13.5 or even favored at all.

"I figure if I can get two degrees from Ohio State, it might be close to Elliott’s undergraduate degree" - Brock Mealer

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December 18th, 2009 at 3:45 PM | if michigan... (Score:1)
GOBLUE4EVR
GOBLUE4EVR's picture
Joined: 01/09/2009
MGoPoints: 920

is favored then i'm finding a bookie and taking kansas and the points....

@GOBLUE4EVR

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December 18th, 2009 at 3:35 PM | Prediction? (Score:1)
His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture
Joined: 11/24/2008
MGoPoints: 12453

WE GONE LOSE!!!

/Family Guy Weatherman

or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing.

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December 18th, 2009 at 3:50 PM | Rebounding (Score:1)
mgovictors23
mgovictors23's picture
Joined: 05/03/2009
MGoPoints: 91

This is a really bad team to play when we have a rebounding problem.

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:05 PM | Woo Hooooo (Score:1)
PeterKlima
Joined: 08/24/2008
MGoPoints: 1285

Michigan is favored by 13.5 ... wow. (I assume this will be changed.)

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:12 PM | Line (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7490

Wow, just -13.5.....none of the places I use have lines up yet for tomorrow, and I was sure it would be closer to 20 points than 10 points. We'll see.

Like I said in the other thread: the longer Michigan keeps the Rockhalk Jayhawk chant from happening, the bigger the morale victory for the boys.

Also, there's plenty of other big hoop games tomorrow to keep an eye as the schedule has great matchups all day and night. So much that it demanded a Bubble News post at the JCB.

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

Just Cover Blog Twitter

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:52 PM | Other games (Score:1)
Gulo Gulo Luscus
Gulo Gulo Luscus's picture
Joined: 12/18/2009
MGoPoints: 319

13.5 does seem low given our performance thus far. On Saturdays this fall I looked forward to this big Saturday tilt for hoops. It was all in vain. At least UNC/Texas and Gonzaga/Duke should be good enough to forget the horror that will be Allen Fieldhouse.

"Hey Now!"

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:23 PM | We're favored because (Score:1)
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: -9481

I'm going to drive up to Lawrence after work tonight and go Tanya Harding all over KU's starters.

It's in the bag, fellas...

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:44 PM | Where, tell me where!!! (Score:1)
NorthSideBlueFan
NorthSideBlueFan's picture
Joined: 08/28/2009
MGoPoints: 1890

Can I bet my house, wife, cars, 401k and any high interest loan I can get prior to tip on KU +13.5.

PLEASE SWEET BABY BIRTHDAY BOY JESUS TELL ME WHERE!

/end Christmas list.

"... never forget that Ohio is still a four-letter word."
-Bob Ufer

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:57 PM | Haha (Score:1)
WichitanWolverine
WichitanWolverine's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: -9481

Betting your wife. Nice.

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December 18th, 2009 at 5:07 PM | LOL (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7490

Ha, if MIIICH were -13.5 over KU it would be what I (and others, its not a term I invented, after all) call a Mother-in-Law pick.

Dont be afraid to bet all your mother's in law cash, it wont come back to bite you.

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

Just Cover Blog Twitter

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December 18th, 2009 at 4:48 PM | The line hasn't come out on (Score:1)
Tim
Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 12638

The line hasn't come out on that site yet... That should be blank for now. I assume Michigan will be a 20ish point dog.

Yeastbound and Down

Great Lax State

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December 18th, 2009 at 5:00 PM | The quote from DeShawn: (Score:1)
gpsimms not be ...
gpsimms not be confused with gsimms of gsimmons fame's picture
Joined: 09/04/2008
MGoPoints: 527

http://michigan.scout.com/2/930118.html

Q: Is it kind of like the UCONN trip from last year? It presents an opportunity for you guys to make some noise against a good team?

A:“Definitely. I don’t think it is *no* different than the UCONN trip. We had some pretty big wins before and up until that point, but Kansas being number one is a good opportunity for us.”

Emphasis mine. I actually do not think this is a case of Peedi overusing the word "no" like so many kids do. I think he is saying last year we had already gotten some confidence and some big wins going into to UConn. So, although they are similar situations, going into Kansas is a little different because we haven't played as much good basketball up until this point.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that is the way I read the scout transcript.

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December 18th, 2009 at 5:50 PM | Student Section (Score:1)
GoBlueKC
Joined: 11/18/2008
MGoPoints: 13

One of the few things we have going for us is that the students at KU are finished with the semester. Compared to how loud Allen Fieldhouse can get with a full complement of 'lubricated' fans, tomorrow should not be too bad of an atmosphere.

The KC alumni club scored some seats so there should be about 30 of us in a group. Rumors are that the Denver and Omaha groups will be making the trip as well.

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December 18th, 2009 at 8:50 PM | Good work! (Score:1)
BleedingBlue
BleedingBlue's picture
Joined: 07/25/2008
MGoPoints: 1942

Cheer for me too please!

Meeechingan Football 2011:  Now featuring ManBall™

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December 18th, 2009 at 6:31 PM | I think the "argh make a (Score:1)
Yinka Double Dare
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1734

I think the "argh make a shot" tag used on the prior basketball post should be used on all basketball previews until we beat someone who doesn't suck.

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December 18th, 2009 at 11:57 PM | Our only hope of avoiding a 92-67 beatdown (Score:1)
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 17050

is to cancel the liveblog.


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December 19th, 2009 at 11:35 AM | surprised at the line... (Score:1)
SysMark
SysMark's picture
Joined: 11/15/2008
MGoPoints: 5196

Like others I was surprised the line was only 13.5. Let's hope this is the day Kansas comes out flat and a lot of 3s start falling for us. That's the ticket to keep it close and have a chance to steal it. 3s and free throws must fall.

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December 20th, 2009 at 8:10 AM | I guess I should feel good the margin was only 11 (Score:1)
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 17050

and that KU didn't hang the number of points on us I was fearing.

But 5 for 28 from behind the arc? 17.8%? Argh.


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