Essentials

Overview

We thought we'd lost #chaosteam about midway through the season, when Indiana settled into a middling team with a good defense and iffy offense. And then:

INT x2
fumble
fumble on kickoff
blocked FG x2
missed XP

I'm just a safety away from getting a Bad Football BINGO.

— Punt John Punt (@PuntJohnPunt) November 5, 2016

Indiana trailed Rutgers for a large portion of that game before the Hoosiers managed to cobble together enough plays that weren't fiascos to edge the Cable Subscribers; the next week Indiana led top-ten Penn State in the fourth quarter of a game that ended up much closer than the 45-31 final would suggest. (PSU got a scoop-and-score as Indiana attempted to drive for the tie.)

#chaos, man. I have a Morrissey song for this.

I HAVE A MORRISSEY SONG FOR EVERYTHING

Run Offense vs Indiana

So here's a weird thing: Indiana is a legitimately good rushing defense. They held Saquon Barkley and Penn State to 1.7 yards a carry last week.

...

I'm sorry. I should have warned you I was going to say that. Are you okay? It's just a bump. You'll be fine.

Anyway: three teams have managed to crack 4 YPC against the Hoosiers: MSU (4.3 YPC), OSU (5.8), and Maryland (5.4). The latter two are highly legit rushing offenses. MSU is... uh... not. They've held everyone else to mediocre days or worse, with their most recent effort the thing that caused you to fall and hit your head moments ago.

How? Well, they added a new defensive coordinator and have a deep fleet of defensive linemen, none of whom out-and-out suck. Nobody can rush the passer much but the worst run grade amongst the eight DL with more than 100 snaps is –2.3, and they have a gentleman named Ralph Green who is a legitimately good run defender as a 305-pound DT. In addition, IU's two LBs—they run a 4-2-5 are suddenly very good. Tegray Scales and Marcus Oliver are both undersized guys who get a lot of protection from the DL, which is almost solely concerned with occupying OL and preventing downfield releases. This allows one or the other to be a free, gap-shooting hitter most of the time. Both guys excel in that role. They have nearly 20 TFLs between them.

Indiana's struggled against the two of the three read option teams* they've gone up against as those offenses can re-balance those numbers and then it's about Indiana getting off a block, something they're not great at. Penn State's inability to do anything stands out as a potential adjustment they've made. Michigan's ability to go read option with John O'Korn is an open question, and even if they want to the OSU game looms. It'll be more of the same from Michigan, with a ton of big formations as Michigan attempts to get a hat on everyone in the front seven and blow out the undersized back seven of Indiana.

That should be reasonably successful if the MSU game is any indicator. All three of MSU's backs had solid 5+ YPC averages on the ground, and no other team on Indiana's schedule is particularly close to the TE/FB heavy manball MSU runs out. Nebraska is the closest thing, and this year they're not particularly close.

Michigan can add guys to the box and force guys other than Scales and Oliver to make the play, and should exceed expectations if you were to just look at the numbers. It won't be a blowout; I don't expect a repeat of the Iowa game, for many reasons.

KEY MATCHUP: DE'VEON SMITH versus THE FISHING VILLAGE. This should be a good matchup for Smith, who is capable of running through tackles of just about everyone in the Indiana back seven.

[Hit THE JUMP for OH MAN THIS LINE against MICHIGAN'S DL is a THING I SAY EVERY WEEK NOW]

Pass Offense vs Indiana

Fant is a decent to good Indiana corner... sorry sorry I'll warn you next time

The TL;DR version of this section: dunno. The weather looks set to literally and figuratively dampen passing games; meanwhile we do not expect Wilton Speight to play. John O'Korn would then get the first start of his career. Virtually anything could happen.

As far as the opposition goes, Indiana has not made quite as many strides in their pass defense. They're just about average in S&P+, 58th nationally. They have a tendency to give up big plays: they're 13th in in the league in 20-yard passes allowed with 34 and tied for last in 30+ with 19. In this department they have done little to separate themselves from the Purdues and Rutgerses of the world.

Their sack rate is 72nd nationally; PFF thinks most of their rushers are outright bad. Scales and Oliver pull a lot of weight here as well. That's another reason you can expect to see a ton of De'Veon Smith this weekend: linebacker blitzing is a big part of Indiana's pass-rush production.

The good news for Indiana is that they have a couple of okay to good corners. Rashard Fant is +9.3 overall to PFF; Jonathan Crawford is +6.6, and both have significantly positive cover grades. The other four guys who get significant playing time are all in the red, however, and so is Oliver. Michigan will have guys running open and should protect reasonably well. Whether the weather will allow O'Korn to hit them is an open question.

Michigan's receivers will look to bounce back from a poor outing against Iowa where they caught just one of six balls I filed as "moderately challenging" and coughed one of them up for a game-changing interception; you'd expect the Darboh/Chesson/Butt troika would bounce back since they've got a lot of track record behind them. Michigan is not that team.

Michigan will seek out the safety matchups and try to exploit them; they will get their share of open deep shots. Knock on wood that they will hit a couple.

KEY MATCHUP: JOHN O'KORN versus NO PRESSURE, KID.

Run Defense vs Indiana

Feeney is good. The rest of this outfit not so much.

This is not the same rushing offense that clobbered Michigan a year ago. Jordan Howard is gone; replacement Devine Redding is okay but not in Howard's league. A couple of departures on the offensive line have bit deep, and injury has limited both Jacob Bailey and Dan Feeney. Feeney had to move to right tackle because of issues elsewhere, and those are severe: center Wes Rogers and LT Coy Cronk are both a whopping –20 per PFF, with almost literally all of Rogers's minuses coming on the ground. TE Danny Friend is also a problem at –8 as a run blocker.

The result is a very right-handed run game. Indiana tries as hard as possible to run behind their Feeney/Bailey right side, with limited success. They're 100th in S&P+. They gained 414 yards on 7.3 YPC against the Maryland and the worst rush defense in America; against the rest of their Big Ten schedule they're averaging a hair over three yards a carry.

IU might be able to scheme something up in their weird-ass wildcat package featuring Tyler "Ma" Natee, a true freshman who played spread option QB as a 280-pound high schooler and is doing so again when Indiana reaches the redzone. His sidekick in this package is backup QB Zander Diamont. Naturally. The Manatee package was wildly successful against Maryland and has not been particularly so the last couple weeks; I wouldn't put it past Kevin Wilson to cook up something wacky and get Michigan for a couple chunks; it probably won't be much good as they try to run straight ahead.

The spread orientation of the Indiana offense and Michigan's continued edge issues will combine to offer Indiana some way to progress on the ground. Interior runs look pretty doomed. Expect something like the Maryland game.

KEY MATCHUP: MIKE MCCRAY and BEN GEDEON against THE EDGE THE EDGE THE EDGE. They will try it until Michigan stops it.

Pass Defense vs Indiana

Nick Westbrook outta nowhere

QB Richard Lagow never forgot the spirit of #chaosteam. He won the Wake Forest game with 500 yards passing(!) and lost it with five interceptions(!!). He's got 13 on the year, which is second-most in the Big Ten behind only poor, besieged David Blough. He's also fumbled twice, with Indiana losing both.

When not hammering passes into the opposition's chest he leads a typically potent Indiana passing attack. IU had zero dropoff after losing Simmie Cobbs for the season; 6'3" sophomore Nick Westbrook stepped in and is averaging 11.3 yards a target and 18 yards a catch. Slot types Mitchell Paige and Ricky Jones have been less spectacular; at 5'7" Paige is limited to screens and short stuff, with Jones filling in Cobbs's role as the other outside receiver. Both are still efficient and effective; PFF grades all three members of the troika significantly positive, with Westbrook leading the way.

Indiana tailbacks will also be a threat. They've got 36 catches on the season. After last week's game Indiana will certainly try to solo Mike McCray up on little fast guys and outrun him. Michigan will need to consistently chip backs coming out of the backfield, and even that might not be enough.

Indiana's pass blocking has been good; they're 26th in sack rate and PFF has most of their contributors as plus pass blockers. Left tackle Cronk is a major exception, however, and that's where Michigan will try to make hay with Taco Charlton. Martin, the center, is a shade below zero and is likely to be vulnerable to Mo Hurst and Ryan Glasgow.

Add it up and the fancystats are impressed. Indiana has a top 20 passing offense per S&P+ and is thus the biggest challenge Lewis, Stribling, and company have faced all year.

KEY MATCHUP: STRIBLING and LEWIS versus WESTBROOK. I'm ceding Indiana a chunk of yards on dumpoffs to the tailback. Westbrook is the best WR Michigan's seen since Illinois's Malik Turner, who Michigan shut down until Delano Hill misplayed a hopeful armpunt.

Special Teams

Kicker Griffin Oakes has gone #collegekickers after a reliable career prior to 2016; he's hit just 12 of 21 FGAs and has Indiana 115th in field goal efficiency. Meanwhile he's getting just 40% of his kickoffs to the endzone. He has problems, man.

Meanwhile punter Joseph Gedeon has been extremely poor. He averages just 40 yards a kick and has still seen half of his punts returned; in this case a ruthless –22 from PFF seems justified. He averages a 37-yard net and has had one blocked; this is a game with a high likelihood of a Peppers special teams thing.

You may remember Mitchell Paige from his punt return touchdown last year; he has a 39-yarder in 2016 and a 7.4 yard average. He's not Peppers, but with Michigan prioritizing safety first on punts he's a good bet to eat up some yards. Indiana's done little on kick returns. Their primary guy averages 21 yards an attempt.

Michigan has Peppers and might actually have a kicking advantage now that Kenny Allen appears to have worked out his early season kinks; special teams is high variance but M should have the advantage here.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Team-wide malaise continues into week two.
• John O'Korn looks way, way behind Wilton Speight.
• The weather turns this into a farce that anyone can win.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Paging Mr. Peppers to aisle line drive punt.
• Michigan's pass rush is able to overwhelm a solid pass pro line.
• Big formations point at Indiana's weakness.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; +1 for CHAOS, –1 for CHAOS, +1 for The CHAOS Of Grim Weather, –1 for Indiana's Turnover And Gaffe Prone, –1 for Many Returnable Kicks And Punts For Jabrill, –1 for I'm Still Taking This Run Game Over Indiana's Given The Defenses, +1 for Legit Good Pass Offense For The First Time In A While, +1 for Backup QB.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for We're Still In This Dang Thing, +1 for I Would Like To Win Against OSU And This Will Make Me Feel Better, +1 for Losing To 20 Point Underdogs Feels Bad Man, +1 for AS WE JUST FOUND OUT, +1 for That Crimson Quarry Guy Might React Entertainingly).

Loss will cause me to... try to sleep until the new year.

Win will cause me to... gird all available loins.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Extremely difficult to get a projection here since the weather could turn this into a version of NC State-Notre Dame. Hopefully it's cold enough that it's just snow and people can proceed apace. Also there will probably be a QB we have not seen except in garbage time. So this is even more guess-tastic than normal.

If the weather is reasonable to play in Michigan should hit some big pass plays and have enough beef on the ground to hit the weak bits of the Indiana run D. I don't expect a return to the hair-on-fire first halves of yesterweek, but whatever that was in Iowa City is also not who Michigan is. Indiana's defense is improved but not that improved. Michigan will move the ball, and score.

Meanwhile, Indiana's offense is something Michigan hasn't seen. They're incapable of running the ball. They're a very good pass offense. I'll have to see someone throw on Lewis and Stribling before I'll believe it, and they have a boat anchor at left tackle, where Taco Charlton projects to do a bunch of work. Indiana is well-equipped to hit their RBs on dink routes and they'll get some edge stuff like everyone does; I don't think they'll do much more than Iowa.

And when they punt they're asking for trouble.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Smith goes over 100 yards and takes the bulk of the carries.
• Charlton gets two sacks, or at least creates two.
• Michigan, 29-11