Preview: Illinois Comment Count

Tim

hate_week_wolverine.jpgThe Essentials

WHAT Michigan v. Illinois
WHERE Champaign, IL
WHEN 8:30 PM EST

February 16th, 2011
THE LINE Michigan +9.

KenPom: 16% W
TELEVISION BTN (Eric Collins, Tim Doyle)

The Story

As I said in Monday's The Path, every game this season is The Most Important Game of the Season Until the Next One. Michigan needs every win they can get from here on out. This one is of particular importance because it's an opportunity for a road win against an RPI top-50 opponent. Winning this game takes the chances at an NCAA tournament bid from "a nice longshot" to "actually possible."

Losing it doesn't doom the chances at a bid, but it makes them unrealistic. They would need at least a couple upsets in their last five games. This is a can't miss any opportunity at one.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy:

Michigan v. Illinois: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Illinois Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. UI Def eFG% 48 26 I
Mich Def eFG% v. UI eFG% 181 40 II
Mich TO% v. UI Def TO% 25 193 MM
Mich Def TO% v. UI TO% 239 98 II
Mich OReb% v. UI DReb% 313 192 II
Mich DReb% v. UI OReb% 39 156 MM
Mich FTR v. UI Opp FTR 341 99 III
Mich Opp FTR v. UI FTR 64 302 MMM
Mich AdjO v. UI AdjD 48 19 I
Mich AdjD v. UI AdjO 77 28 I

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

The stats are daunting, and I'm going to add another to the mix: Michigan is #231 nationally in effective height (this happens when you play 6-4 Zack Novak at the 4 spot), and the Illini are #1. Like Michigan, they start a tall point guard in 6-3 Demetri McCamey, but unlike the Wolverines, they have a 7-footer and a pair of 6-9 players in their starting lineup.

Against other tall teams, Michigan has had some struggles (Minnesota is #7 in effective height), but also exceeded expectations (Syracuse is in the national top 40). It's hard to say whether the height difference played a role in the Minnesota loss, as that game was at the end of Michigan's poorest stretch of play on the season, but it's certainly not a good indication that they'll handle size well. Another thing to be antsy about: the Wolverine bigs have had trouble avoiding fouls. That could spell doom in this game.

As for the tempo-free stats, a lot of Michigan's numbers - particularly shooting the ball - have been trending upward lately, so they are probably playing a little bit better than the season-long or even conference-only stats indicate. On the other side, the Illini are slumping (HT: UMHoops), so who knows which team is actually playing better at this point in the year?

Thanks to Mike Rothstein of AnnArbor.com for pointing this out yesterday: only two of Michigan's players (Stu Douglass and Zack Novak) have ever played in Illinois's Assembly Hall. Two years ago, the Wolverines were pounded 66-51 on the Illini's home court. In last year's only meeting, Darius Morris went 1-7 from the field and recorded a 3-2 assist-turnover ratio in a 44-51 Wolverine loss at Crisler Arena. Novak had a decent game, but Douglass went 0-8 from the floor.

Elsewhere

UMHoops's Joe Stapleton has video from yesterday's Darius Morris/Jordan Morgan and John Beilein press conferences. It doesn't come across in Joe's video, but I though Morris seemed very zen about things, FWIW. Dylan previews the game - and points out that Michigan's D is on the upswing in addition to the shooting improvement. Mike Rothstein previews the game for AnnArbor.com.

Predictions

Michigan is a hungry team at this point, and they know the opportunity that's in front of them. That said, there is more to winning basketball games than hunger. Height throughout the roster is often one of them. I think Darius Morris will win the statistical battle against Demetri McCamey, but at least one of Michigan's big men will foul out. Illinois escapes with a win against Michigan, right around the expected spread. 73-65, Illini.

Comments

His Dudeness

February 16th, 2011 at 3:26 PM ^

Based on the officiating in the OSU game I am not even going to watch this one.

Prediciton: we keep it close until the refs completely fuck us over in the later half of the second half by handing them at least 8 points. I am also guessing the free throw distribution will be somewhere around...  

Illinois: 20

Michigan: 4

There is a reason why they say it is hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, because the refs make it nearly statistically impossible.

aiglick

February 16th, 2011 at 3:30 PM ^

Illinois is a jump shooting team and it is harder to issue fouls on teams defending jump shots. Michigan does have a chance. Need to take the crowd out of it as much as possible.

aaamichfan

February 16th, 2011 at 3:34 PM ^

I do think we have a chance in this one, but it's going to be tough. I noticed that the Illinois student section now has some courtside seats, and that's gotta make it an extreme pain in the ass to inbound.

TrueBlue2003

February 16th, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^

I love what Tim does around here but I think the analysis is pretty far off for this game.  Our last three games were more "Most Important Game of the Season."  By winning all those we've actually bought ourselves some breathing room.  We knew three games ago we needed to go 6-2 to finish.  Now it's 3-2 and this is (and was then) the most difficult remaining on the schedule.

If we don't win, we just have to win the Iowa and MSU games and one of the other two which are the games we thought we'd have the best chance at anyway.

And if we win, it doesn't go to "actually possible" (which what is that? it's been POSSIBLE for a while).  A win means 9-9 will be EXPECTED (statistically speaking) and we will have essentially a coin flip's chance of going at least 9-9 and being in the driver seat to make the tourney.  

So huge upside for tonight's game, not a huge downside.  I like these games.  Much less stressful than the last three.

goblueMD

February 16th, 2011 at 6:57 PM ^

I agree completely, this is by no means a must-win game.  As posted earlier, KenPom has this as the least likely win the rest of the way (16%, I believe).  We need to win @Iowa and home v. MSU, but this will probably be the toughest regular season game remaining.  However, I do feel like an upset is quite possible tonight. Go Blue

Tim

February 16th, 2011 at 7:33 PM ^

Eh, 9-9 probably doesn't get the team in without a top 50 win. Tonight and Wisconsin are probably the only chances to earn that (a loss to Michigan State would probably give Michigan a top-50 road win retroactively).

Either way, to go 3-2 they're going to need an upset somewhere. In fact, they're going to need an upset in 2 somehweres. This team is an underdog at Iowa. This game is huge. Win or lose, it still makes the next game hugely important.

TrueBlue2003

February 16th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^

To go 3-2, we'd have to beat one of WISC, MINN or ILL, all of whom are highly likely to finish in the top 50.  And we have a better chance in the other two games.  If we lose tonight, i agree those games become more important, but this one isn't really a must win.

9-9 in the B1G, 8-3 down the stretch, at least three solid road wins (Clem, MSU, PSU), and what will be a 40ish RPI is will be highly to get us into the tourney.  This arbitrary top 50 wins cut off doesn't matter so much if we have a bunch of top 60 wins.  It's a total resume.

siudog1

February 16th, 2011 at 3:48 PM ^

The assembly hall is a tuff place to win. It gets very loud. Especially when that start that damn I-L-L...I-N-I cheer. Look for me. I will be that little maize dot in a sea of orange. GO BLUE!

Blue_Sox

February 16th, 2011 at 3:49 PM ^

Illinois is a team in turmoil a la Michigan State when we played them in East Lansing. Bruce Weber has called out McCamey for having his eyes on the NBA and not listening to him. Mike Davis called out the team's effort after their last loss to Purdue and saying they didn't try as hard as they should have. I think jumping on them early could go a long way to turning them against themselves because they know this is a game they absolutely can not lose. 

Will that be enough considering the decided talent advantage they have against us? Probably not. But I also didn't think we'd be able to pull out a win against MSU. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we squeaked out an upset here. 

betheballdanny

February 16th, 2011 at 4:26 PM ^

Ohio State has an effective height ranking of 177, mainly because they have 4 guards and that other guy that makes me hear "he went to Jared" in my sleep.  Illinois has lost to teams with effective height rankings of 109 (Texas), 84 (UIC), 124 (Missouri), 60 (Penn State), Ohio State (177), Indiana (101), and Purdue (127).  Northwestern (19) and Wisconsin (36) were the tallest teams they lost to, and maybe that says that they overlook the smallish teams and play up to their taller opponents (puns definitely intended).  I wouldn't worry about that stat too much.

Illinois has the ability to completely go into this game sleeping, looking ahead at the two "State" schools it faces in its next two games.  One is a fellow bubble team that used to be the #2 team in the country, while the other is soon to be the #1 team in the country again.  Most teams would be looking ahead to those games.  Yes, Illinois hates Michigan way more than the other way around so they might be up for this "rivalry", but if they're looking ahead they might be in trouble.  Just look at how they did against Illinois-Chicago right before their Missouri game (big rivalry), or against Penn State before Wisconsin.  Sure, neither were at home, but the former was definitely an Illinois crowd.  I was there with my wife and mother in law.

Michigan needs to win tonight, mainly because the allegiance of my 18 month old son is in the balance.

Go blue.

chitownblue2

February 16th, 2011 at 4:45 PM ^

Illinois is a bad rebounding team - they are roughly middle of the pack nationally, according to Kenpom in offensive rebounding, and in the bottom 3rd nationally (196th) in defensive rebounding. We, on the other hand, are an excellent defensive rebounding team (39th nationally), and a terrible one on the offensive glass (313th).

We should enjoy an advantage, regardless of their height, in keeping them off the offensive glass. Our offensive rebounding against their defensive should be a pillow fight. Tisdale and Cole - two of those tall guys, also don't offensively play inside.

This is a team whose captain (Mike Davis) just said, basically, that McCamey and Tisdale had quit, and Weber didn't really disagree with him.

Also, a team that was just obliterated on the glass on their home court by a team ranking more than 100 slots lower than them in effective height (Purdue grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, and 35 of Illinois' 39 misses, for a margin of +19).

Illinois is a talented, charmin-soft, weak-minded team.

umchicago

February 16th, 2011 at 4:48 PM ^

illinois has almost no low-post game despite having "height".  i really don't see a disadvantage in the smotrycz-tisdale or morgan-davis match-ups.  in fact it could easily be a UM edge there.

as usual, it will be us needed to out 3 pt them.  and both teams will be relying on really young guns to do so.  let's just hope we are quicker on the draw and more accurate.

chitownblue2

February 16th, 2011 at 4:52 PM ^

Right. This is going to be a three-point contest. Paul, Richardson, Cole, Tisdale, and McCamey (sometimes) can shoot them, and do often. Davis is enough of a post player to sort of keep you honest.

But when McCamey is off (as he has been a bunch recently), he's REALLY off.

It's possible that they're a better 3-point outfit, especially on their own floor, but that's what this will come down to.

Tim

February 16th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^

Illinois is in the top 20% in the nation in blocking shots, and in the top 10% in the nation in not having their own shots blocked. Sure, this game may be a 3-point contest to an extent, but Michigan's 3-pointers have been, for the most part, a product of either Darius Morris or Jordan Morgan getting into the lane and drawing help. Illinois's size will allow them to defend inside without needing as much help, meaning the shooters are less open, etc.

Y0ST

February 16th, 2011 at 10:13 PM ^

M takes over 4th place in the B1G.  IF that happens, I think the MBB bandwagon starts to become a popular place.

Wasn't it a few years ago when TA's team went into Ill, got a win for what was their 20th?  I remember dancing around the house that night having "locked" a tourny bid.  Of course that team went on to lose all the rest of their games and head to the NIT.  

A win tonight won't get me dancing, but damn, I'll feel good!

 

[edit] apparently my memory is fading. I guess that game I remember wasn't at ill.

betheballdanny

February 17th, 2011 at 11:04 AM ^

I still try to close my eyes and picture Stu making an ESPY-worthy shot (which probably would have only sent the game to OT), but alas, it never falls.  It hurts to lose that game, but Michigan went into a hostile environment and played one helluva game... a gutty second half.  It was nice to see that they could hang when their threes weren't falling.

Being the optimist, I keep looking for the experts saying we're in or out, and I was so happy to see a little green triangle today next to our name in the crashingthedance.com at large tab this morning.  I'm pretty sure it wasn't there yesterday.