Mike Lantry, 1972
|WHAT||Michigan vs Illinois|
|WHERE||Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
|WHEN||Noon Eastern, November 6th 2010|
|THE LINE||Michigan –3(?!?!?)|
|TELEVISION||National on ESPN|
Clear, around 40
Illinois appears to have a for-real defense this year after bringing in Vic Koenning, an established collegiate defensive coordinator with a recent history of success at Clemson and Kansas State. The three years before his hire, Koenning's Ds were 9th, 18th, and 39th in total defense, with that last stop a one-off year at Kansas State where he took the Wildcat D up from 117th. Ahem.
Illinois has been shutting down guys on the strength of a good defensive line (one that features MGoSouldongmate Corey Liuget) and the emergence of Martez Wilson (right) into something resembling the uber-hyped recruit he was. Wilson's by far Illinois's leading tackler with 68; he's second to Liuget in TFLs and sacks. Against the Big Ten:
That is pretty impressive, with the MSU game standing out as intimidating. The saving grace for Michigan are the numbers against Purdue and OSU, both teams that feature running quarterbacks. (Purdue actually featured two—they started off with fingerless Rob Henry until it was obvious he couldn't throw, then brought in Sean Robinson, using Henry as a tailback in their version of the inverted veer. It was freaky.) Pryor broke off a 66-yard run en route to 121 yards on just eight carries, but blew up his quad in the third quarter and did little but hand off when he returned, or Ohio State may have gotten some distance from the Illini. Unfortunately, Purdue's respectable YPC was on the back of a single 57-yard run from Al-Terek McBurse; the Purdue quarterbacks combined for 31 yards. Dan Dierking did average 5 YPC on 10 carries, FWIW.
Neither OSU, which tends to regard the spread option as a backup plan and had a Navarre-level statue for most of the second half, or an injury-decimated Purdue team is a particularly good comparison for Michigan. Neither are the rushing games of MSU and PSU (pro style) or Indiana (both injury ravaged and pistol-based). So we don't know much about this specific matchup.
Illinois has proven throughout the year that they'll be tough sledding, though, with Liuget a constant threat to penetrate and Wilson capable of running down Denard wherever he ends up. Getting a good release on him and chopping him to the ground will be important.
Key Matchup: Denard's Reads versus His Desire To Not Be Shattered. I'm pretty sure at this point that Michigan's read option plays are really just handoffs that attempt to get the opponent to respect the idea of a pull. Denard's already running so much that he invariably hands off even when it seems like he's got the edge like whoah. In a critical, critical (yes, another) game I'd like to see him take advantage of those opportunities.
Michigan had an off week against Penn State, with Denard making a number of poor throws and/or poor decisions. When the receivers had an opportunity to rectify some of those mistakes they did not take them, and Robinson had his worst completion percentage of the year by a healthy margin. Penn State got no pressure, at least, and Denard's one-man play action continued to be very effective.
Meanwhile, Illinois is 25th in pass efficiency defense. They intercepted Ben Chappell three times, held him to just over 50% completions, and generally blew him up. Kirk Cousins was just over 50% himself but put up a good YPA thanks to some deep balls to BJ Cunningham; Illinois destroyed Robert Bolden. They got a pass against OSU since the wind and Pryor's injury limited the Buckeyes to 18 attempts, two of which were from the backup. They've got a good track record.
They've done this despite losing Terry Hawthorne to a stress fracture and Supo Sanni to something or other. Illinois moved a cornerback to safety and dropped two new starters in at corner, one of them a converted tailback. The difference between Justin Green and the guys Michigan is rolling out is one of experience—he's a sophomore—and talent, as he was a top 100 recruit who made a strange switch from Ohio State to Illinois. Still, he's a position switch starter and the team isn't suffering from it. A dollar to that position coach. Hawthorne's working his way back to health, which means that Illinois has three more competent cornerbacks than Michigan and now this is just getting depressive.
Anyway: Michigan should have success in the same vein they did against Penn State, where the threat of the run opens up passing plays that eat up big chunks of yards but third and long is almost futile. Michigan's success here will be dependent on Denard's accuracy and the situation Michigan finds themselves in.
Key Matchup: Denard and His Receivers MAKE PLAYS. Illinois, having seen Michigan's jagged passing success, will probably play it cool, giving Denard some opportunities to hit guys and those guys opportunities to bring balls in.
Last week's bold prediction was stupid indeed—encouraged by a not-awful performance against Iowa and anticipating that Penn State's offensive line would be a far less serious challenge, I suggested Michigan would hold Penn State under four yards a carry. Close! Except not close: PSU averaged 4.7 as Michigan switched from a four-man front to a debacle of a 3-3-5. Like the 2008 Purdue game, rumors are flying that Michigan is scrapping their bye week spectacular for something else, and with Craig Roh seemingly ready to put his lost year behind him and get his hand on the ground that will be more of a conventional 4-3 look, I'm guessing.
If the Iowa game is any evidence, that could be not awful against a conventional rushing attack even minus Mike Martin. Unfortunately for Michigan, their array of freshmen, position converts, freshman position converts, and LSD-tripping ferrets is going up against a shotgun triple option attack. Michigan doesn't even know where they're supposed to be on an inside zone. Illinois has used the option, a healthy dose of zone reads of all varieties, and some Nathan Scheelhaase scrambling to do this against relevant opponents:
Unfortunately, the "relevant" bit of the Big Ten numbers is definitely more Indiana-Purdue-PSU than OSU-MSU.
As mentioned in the scouting post from the bye week, expect to see a lot of this:
Illinois runs a lot of triple option. Against Purdue they were content to run basic zone reads since the backside DE was crashing down all day, but Michigan's guys should be experienced at dealing with that. The triple option not so much. With Martin on the injury list he figures to be limited, leaving Mouton, Demens, Spur Of The Week, and Kovacs to play the proverbial assignment football and tackle in space. Kovacs seems suited for this, and Demens may be—still too early to tell—but I'm worried about Mouton and the other guy, whoever it is. Also I'm worried about…
Key matchup: Freshman cornerbacks and safeties [Ed-M: and ferrets] tackling on the edge on the option. The option puts a lot of pressure on your safeties to come up and fill ably, which apparently means we're going to have the privilege of watching Ray Vinopal try to tackle guys fifty pounds heavier than him.
Two weeks ago I would have said this will be a sidelight on third and long and Scheelhaase will do well not to turn it over, but then Michigan played Penn State and Scheelhaase averaged 9.7 YPA with 4 TDs against Purdue. His long was again a pass to his tailback and no receiver brought in anything longer than 17 yards, but even if Illinois's passing game is an all-dink affair Scheelhaase is getting comfortable with it. He was 16 of 20 against Purdue, 13 of 21 against Indiana, and 15 of 19 against Penn State, all in grindingly effective games for the Illinois offense. His only bad day in the past moth was against Michigan State. That was a very bad day (3 INTs), but we can't expect something like that to recur, especially against this secondary.
I'm not sure Courtney Avery could have been worse than JT Floyd against Penn State but "secondary just as good as it was against Penn State" is a recipe for disaster. Moving the safeties around worked about as well as it did last year, and the year before. James Rogers was out for most of the PSU game in favor of Talbott so we may see our long-held dream finally come to fruition: a secondary made up of nothing but true freshmen without a fourth star to any of their names.
Key matchup: Demens and Mouton getting their zone responsibilities right. I mentioned this in passing but to reiterate: I now think it was Demens screwing up against Iowa since in the PSU game the guy lined up over the slot receiver carried him all the way several times, leaving the linebackers to deal with problems underneath. Illinois gets a large chunk of their passing yards after the catch, so dealing with mesh and whatnot will be important against a passing attack that looks short almost without exception.
For the first time in a while it looks like the opponent's return game is about as bad as Michigan's. The Illini are 118th(!) in punt return average at just over two yards a pop and have had a Michigan 2008-level epidemic of muffed punts. Two of those gave Penn State its (sigh) only points outside of an eighty-yard touchdown strike. Kick returns aren't much better at 89th.
Illinois has the usual massive advantage at kicker (15 of 17 on the year). Their punting has also been outstanding; they're sixth nationally.
Key Matchup: STOP KICKING THE DAMN BALL
Cackle with knowing glee if...
Fear/Paranoia Level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 for What The Hell Was That?, +1 for If James Rogers Really Got Beat Out By Talbott Last Week The Secondary Is Literally Three True Freshmen and Kovacs, +1 for And Then We're Throwing a Freshman Spur Out There Against The Option, +1 for Assuming That Martin Is Not Useful Until He Is Again, –1 for Denard, –1 for Denard Plus Bonus Ninja Tricks, +1 for FFFFFFUUUUUU.)
Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for God, A Win, Any Win, +1 for Rich Rodriguez Job Reclamation Project, +1 for Denard Career Flight Path Maintenance, +1 for Seriously That A Win, Any Win Bit, +1 for A Brief Respite From The Enduring Misery Of Life Is Needed In These Dark Times, Oh Lord, I Beseech Thee, Hear My Call And Respond To Your Good And Faithful Servant, Or At Least, You Know, Your Middling And Somewhat Forgetful Guy Who Resents The Idea Of Servitude, Oh Lord, Lord.)
Loss will cause me to... drink.
Win will cause me to... open one eye and look around in case the falling building didn't actually hit me.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
WTF, Vegas? Michigan being favored here seems insane after last week on both ends. I foresee Illinois's offense tearing through Michigan's like it's almost not there on both air and ground, with some rough spots from Scheelhaase ending a drive here and there and Michigan's return to a somewhat sane defense making the going slightly tougher this week. The Illini won't score on 7 of 9 drives. More like 5 of 9.
Michigan's offense, meanwhile, will have the same promising-but-not-quite-there style they've had since the Big Ten sledding got tough, exploding for a couple of long touchdowns and putting together a number of long drives that get Michigan into the high twenties but sputter out in missed fourth downs, missed field goals, and penalties.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
I see a real chance we go out and kick their ass. A lot might depend on Denard's confidence.
Observation: there will be a fine line between him keeping it more and trying to do too much on the read option.
Nother one: Part of the difference in early-season phenomenal success vs. more recent fair success can be attributed to the nanoseconds of hesitation that have crept into his dilithium-poweredness. Ness. A fair analogy would be to water in everyone else's carburetor.
Win will cause me to... open one eye and look around in case the falling building didn't actually hit me.
I don't know about you, but if we win, you can damn sure bet I will be drinking any and all alcoholic liquids I can get my grubby hands on.
First time this year that the game prediction has predicted a loss... i feel depressed.
I do believe that this here blog also predicted a loss against Iowa.
I managed to make myself look fairly stupid there. Ah well, I try.
and yet you've convinced yourself that RR is a genius.
Do you even read the stuff that you yourself write Brian. At this point Wade Phillips has more of my respect than this bunch ( which isn't saying much).
I predict a 30 point beatdown *by* the flying zookers.
I'll take Michigan and the points.
a 4 star?
I think you owe me a Coke or something. Make sure it is cane sugar instead of HFCS.
I have been staring at my computer monitor for too long, because I seriously read that as you predicting a loss to a team of flying hookers.
That would probably be more entertaining that the game will be, but talk about a destruction of family values!!
Like flying toasters, but WAY cooler.
Bye weeks are overrated.
If anything it gives coaches/players too much time to think/get rusty. This typically is only balanced out by enough key players "getting healthy" in that 2 week span, which, in my opinion, players can not get "that" more healthy in the middle of the season with only 1 extra week. If you're banged up, you will be banged up until the offseason.
My point : Bye weeks are not as advantageous as they are made out to be, and are one of the most overrated things in sports.
There is a study somewhere that basically "proves" this. Though i think that may have been for the NFL.
Our defensive "adjustments" in bye weeks the last 2 years have been disasters.
Oh, and you should change your name.
Big Ten teams have something like a .350 record after a bye week.
I posted this before. It's from the WSJ
They don't mention that RR is currently 1-1 (UM) and 7-1 (WVU) following bye weeks. In sum: In_Rod_I_Trust is super good at overreacting, making things up to get angry about, and ignoring facts.
Our defense starts many a true freshman with nary a fourth star among them.
I'm not sure it's correct to assume that Brian has convinced himself that RR is a genius. I get the sense he's somewhat on the fence but as of now, leaning in the direction of retaining him (hence the "tenuous case" for keeping him that he posted).
In Rod you Trust? You know you can change that if you want right?
I agree with most of Brian's analysis but I still have to hold out hope for the stat that is not, and can not be logically mentioned: every dog has it's day.
Who would have ever thought that Sheridan would have the game that he had at Minnesota in 2008? How about Illinois after their goal line stand last year in 2009 (against us of course)? 1995 and 1996 against OSU? Well....maybe that had to do something with having actually decent defensive players (and that #2 guy)
I still hold out hope that we can pull it together and get this win. I have no objective reasons to say so except for faith in the players work effort, a belief that the coaches (except maybe Robinson) may have a clue, and statements like Molk's "it will click" stuff.
Plus it's my birthday tomorrow and I could use a nice present.
Wow, I can't ever recall being so "optimistic" that the "worry if" things will happen and so "pessimistic" that the "cackle with knowing glee if" things will happen..
Me scared by scary things.
Sir. You are correct. Sir.
"The option puts a lot of pressure on your safeties to come up and fill ably, which apparently means we're going to have the privilege of watching Ray Vinopal try to tackle guys fifty pounds heavier than him."
"we may see our long-held dream finally come to fruition: a secondary made up of nothing but true freshmen without a fourth star to any of their names."
Please turn out other than expected.
But I am not afraid of losing. Bring it on, life-- you've already hosed me last week...
Wow...somebody needs to mix up a tub of ice cold refreshing Kool-Aid, you know, to heal the soul.
Yeah, I know....
I would predict the same for today, except that M's defense last week looked like melted velveeta with salsa, and PSU was the Tostito rounds....mmm, might have to get that today for the game...anyhoo, just got my visio 52 inch hd flat screen, so no throwing things at the tv, my wife is a Wisconsin fan, so she just laughs at my misery.
I now have to watch all games in my basement because I'm confident my neighbors and their children hear the nasty foulness that has come out of my mouth watching the last three games. My wife had an intervention-like talk with me last night about what it's like to watch Michigan games with me lately. You could say I need a win real bad.
Your wife and my wife lack passion.
Agreed, if ever a Michigan season could cost me my marriage this would be the one. Thankfully, my wife will be out of the house for the game so there's that... no basements in Texas so the neighbors will have to deal.
Great fall weather in Texas, windows open on a great fall Saturday..."Aaaarrgggghhh".
absolutely hates Saturday and Sunday during the fall just because of Michigan and the Lions. My sons ride the wave with me. The only peaceful time the past two years has been Sunday morn church. I need that to cushion the sandwich of futility.
Well, it really isn't that bad, but my wife does hate it when I'm 'in the hate zone' for awhile.
My girlfriend was absolutely peeved at me after last week. I didn't take the loss well and proceeded to get inebriated. The good thing is the game is on at 9am on the West Coast, so I can't get too liquored up by noon. Happy girlfriend; expectedly unhappy me
the only way we keep this within 10 points is if we kick onsides from the start of the game. if the defense is going to give up TD's no matter where the other team starts, you might as well go for it on every 4th down and do onsides on every kickoff. This is probably the best defense in the big ten and we've been throwing INT's like crazy the last 3 weeks.
My dad and I were talking last week and the subject came u about us kicking onsides after each score. I think that we could possible get more possessions by doing so. At the very least it would limit the opponents number of clock chewing drives. There could be more pressure added to the offense to score at this point anyway.
Yes, a thousand times yes.
What is it with teams that get the 15 yd penalty and kick the ball into the stands? If football awarded teams a point for kicking the ball through the uprights on the kickoff, I could see that going down.
Never Punt. Onside to lessen the degrees of pain when teams convert only one 3rd and long instead of 3 each drive.
I hold out hope that a Big 10 offense will not execute like a well-oiled machine at least one game this year.Surely we are due some luck aren't we. I know falling on loose balls isn't luck, but seems Penn St fumbled out of bounds a few times. Maybe some gift-wrapped passes to our wide open db's or something.
We are so bad on D tho that we must fill an offense with supreme confidence, which makes offensive implosions by our opponents highly unlikely. I would be shocked if we win this game but it is possible which is why I'll be watching.
We will not win another game this year. Our defensive coaches don't know what they are doing. Instead of getting all cute with a scheme the players and knowledgeable football fans do not understand fully, they could play man to man and maybe have more success. We don't have experience, but we do have athleticism. Illinois has a defense that will knock Denard Robinson out of the game in the first half and this will be a blowout in front of the home crowd to see. Just keeping it real.....
The point spread will make some people with balls very rich on Saturday.
Go Blue! (I would still love to see Michigan pound them to dust!)
Sorry these comments hurt, but I have not been drinking the Michigan Kool-aid this year.
GO SOMEWHERE ELSE
Your handle. I do not think it means what you think it means.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Could there be a worse week to play an option team? I am hoping Michigan drives go 7-9 and put up 49. However, I am more than frightened
that our D might give up 56.
For the betting-inclined who don't want to bet against Michigan, the over/under is 57.5. Might be a good week to take a long, hard look at that over.
on this team is if they score 50+.
I predicted 7-5 to start the season and have now come to the conclusion we are ending up 5-7 again.
I think we take care of the ball and put up at least 30 but somewhere around 40. I just don't know if our defense holds them to that.
are way too depressing. I will make some blue kool-aid and literally be drinking the kool-aid in order to restore my happiness and hope.
You know why you can't make jokes about Jonestown?
The punch lines are too long.
but i couldn't type through the tears. here are the chunks of that post:
looking at the standings, UM is currently in 9th place in conference with 1 win, behind PU, PSU, and NW with 2 conf wins. there are currently 8 big ten bowl tie-ins.
PU has Wisc, UM, MSU and Ind and is currently 4-4. they can't beat Wisc or MSU, that gets them to 4-6. they are even against UM and Indy, this might get them to 6-6.
, PsU has NW, OSU, Indy and MSU. NW has PSU, Iowa, ILL and Wisc.
Did someone say Chunks?