Preview: Hawaii 2016 Comment Count

Ace

Essentials

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WHAT Hawaii at Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium

Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Eastern

September 3rd, 2016
THE LINE Michigan -41
TELEVISION ESPN

PBP: Mike Patrick

Analyst: Ed Cunningham
TICKETS From $65
WEATHER sunny, low to mid 70s, 0% chance of rain

Overview

Hi, it's Ace, continuing the annual tradition of writing the first game preview because Brian's worn down his fingers into bloody nubs. As is tradition, you'll call me "Brian" in the comments. Then I will dip my arms into the butterscotch pudding, as is tradition. What a glorious day for our country, and indeed the world.

For Michigan, this is the season opener. Hawaii, on the other hand, already took a 51-31 loss to Cal last Friday. Have I mentioned that game was in Sydney, Australia? Their coach, Nick Rolovich, has taken to tweeting about having a #MagellanMindset because of the brutal travel schedule. The time change alone—kickoff is at 6 AM Hawaii time—is enough to have Michigan players literally praying for their opponent:

"I couldn't go from Pacific Time to Eastern Time like that, not in a week and then expect to play to my best ability," Lewis said. "I mean, we went to Utah (last year) and it was pretty hard. I'm praying for those guys, honestly."

Oh, and Hawaii finished 118th in S&P+ last year. The spread is 41 points for good reason. 

Run Offense vs Hawaii



Seth's handy diagram. Click to embiggen. Yes, that is two returning starters.

Cal didn't have much of a need to run the ball against Hawaii because they were averaging 8.2 yards per attempt through the air. When they did run, however, they were quite successful. Hawaii lost their best run defender in the offseason when they booted Kennedy Tulimasealii, one of the best DTs in the group of five, and they only finished 82nd in S&P+ against the run last year with that guy. Without that guy...

watch the linebackers

...they did not fare well. In a very exciting development this year, we're partnering with Pro Football Focus, which is providing us with their full grades on Michigan's upcoming opponents to use for FFFF and the previews. Of the 13 players in the front seven who played against Cal, two—two!—finished with a positive grade against the run, and both were barely above zero. There are some grades in there I feel bad even mentioning: DE David Manoa (-3.1 vs. run) and ILB Jahlani Tavai (-2.5) had really rough outings. NT Korey Rasmussen looked passable, but he's a 295-pound nose tackle who'll face off against Mason Cole.

The defensive backs didn't fare much better; the nickel completely biffs his run fit here, then the safety takes a bad angle to tack on extra yardage:

Cal averaged 6.4 yards per non-sack carry. They were a good, not great, rushing team last year. If Jim Harbaugh so desired, Michigan could probably get away with not throwing the ball at all in this game. As you'll see in the next section, they'll probably be inclined to do so anyway.

KEY MATCHUP: STARTING LEFT TACKLE vs. VERY MOVABLE OBJECTS. If Bredeson or Newsome struggles to get movement on the edge against this team, it'll be a major red flag. I don't expect this to be an issue.

[Hit THE JUMP]

Pass Offense vs Hawaii

throwing downfield may be unnecessary

Cal threw the ball downfield against Hawaii because they're an Air Raid offense and that's what they do. If they wanted to, though, they could've run up the score by calling a screen every single play. PFF:

Their tackling left a lot to be desired; the play clipped above is just one particularly bad example. The only defensive back to finish with a positive grade was nickel Rojesterman Farris II (a real name, that), who made a couple nice plays in coverage. Everyone else looked eminanly beatable, whether it was on short throws or longer ones:

Hawaii produced little in the way of a pass rush. They were one of the worst pass defenses in the country last year and lost almost all of the players responsible for reaching a middling 71st in adjusted sack rate. They might be slightly better than they were against Cal if safety Daniel Lewis Jr., arguably their best DB a year ago, returns from suspension. That shouldn't matter much.

This is an ideal game to ease in a new starting quarterback. Wilton Speight can get comfortable with the screen game early, and he should have some big windows to throw into downfield when he's called upon to do so.

KEY MATCHUP: PLAYERS IN SPACE vs. FALLING OVER FOR NO REASON. Seriously, I expect Amara Darboh to get at least 50 yards on screens alone.



I mean, try not to cackle.

Run Defense vs Hawaii



Diocemy Saint Juste is small, fast, and maybe a bit fumbly

Running back Diocemy Saint Juste would've graded out pretty well against Cal, but he fumbled twice, and that put him into the negatives. When he wasn't dropping the ball, he was a constant threat to break into the open field; he finished 118 yards and a score on only 14 carries, and while the "Cal's defense is terrible" caveat very much applies, he looked dangerous in doing so—he's quick and has that proverbial extra gear in the open field. He's coming off a year lost to injury and still was the clear number one back over Paul Harris, who had a good year in 2015; Saint Juste looks legit.

The offensive line managed to open up some holes; I'm skeptical they can repeat that. Hawaii was very left-handed against Cal, having their best success running behind LT Dejon Allen and LG John Wa'a. Allen is 6'3", 290, and played guard all of last year. Cal's defensive line, to say the least, is not Michigan's. They do have some beef up the middle—all three interior linemen weigh at least 310 pounds—but even with Mo Hurst rumored to have a minor injury, Michigan's DTs should have little problem with them.

Hawaii's best bet to put up a score in this game is for Saint Juste to break into the open field once or twice. In the first game of the year for Michigan in a new defense, I wouldn't be too shocked to see it happen. On a down-to-down basis, however, this should be another mismatch.

KEY MATCHUP: BRYAN MONE vs. EXPECTATIONS. I'm very, very curious to see what he can do out there, and while Hawaii's line isn't great, they at least have enough size on the interior that we can't entirely dismiss it if he goes Godzilla in Tokyo on them.

Pass Defense vs Hawaii



Ikaika Woolsey has a strong but erratic arm

QB Ikaika Woolsey got in 149 attempts as a junior last year while mostly playing behind now-graduated starter Max Wittek. He completed 49% of those passes, averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, and tossed six picks against five touchdowns. While he has a little mobility, he's not a guy who's going to be featured in the run game.

Watching the Cal game, I thought Woolsey showed off a pretty good arm, but his accuracy comes and goes. As PFF's chart shows, he had a very tough time staying on target when going downfield:



click for big

I didn't think his receivers helped him out much, even though Hawaii returns 11 of their top 12 pass-catchers from 2015. 6'4" junior Marcus Kemp is the guy to watch; he had four catches for 73 yards and a score against Cal after leading the team in receiving last year. Jourdan Lewis exists. Their TEs had a habit of getting open and not doing a great job of adjusting to throws downfield. Jabrill Peppers exists. Cal's pass defense is an abomination. This will go well.

KEY MATCHUP: SAFETIES vs. BUSTS. Even if Hawaii is unlikely to take advantage, it'd be great to see Michigan get out of this game without any breakdowns on the back end while they test out playing zone a little more frequently than they did last year.

Special Teams

Hawaii tried a surprise onside kick to open the Cal game. It didn't work.

Let's be honest. This section will not factor into the game.

KEY MATCHUP: PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE BIG STICKS, MATE

Intangibles

jet-lag-cats

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • The offensive line isn't shredding Hawaii's front seven into tiny bits
  • Backups aren't in by the third quarter at the latest
  • Someone gets hurt at a spot where that would be bad

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Michigan throws a screen
  • Michigan runs the ball
  • Michigan's defense is on the field

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; -5 for They Are Very Bad, +1 for Obligatory Irrational Season-Opener Fear)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +5 for Cumong)

Loss will cause me to... write a one-sentence recap

Win will cause me to... write a slightly longer recap

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Pain.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Michigan scores two touchdowns on screen passes
  • Jabrill Peppers has three TFLs and does not play offense because that would be wildly unnecessary
  • Saint Juste sets up a field goal with a long run and we very much overreact to this
  • Michigan, 53-5

Comments

reshp1

September 2nd, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^

The double star icon looks menacing, especially with a lot of them. Looks like running through whirling blades of death, which will probably be figuratively accurate tomorrow.

Space Coyote

September 2nd, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^

It won't mean anything either way, I fully expect Michigan to dominate. But, I expect Michigan to run the ball, and not necessarily in an explosive way as I fully expect Hawaii to stack the box and Michigan, not caring to show anything, just run into stacked boxes with relative success. They'll take their time, have methodical drives, and score points. New QB and bringing him along may lead to some conservative play calling in the redzone and a few more FGs than people would like. Plus, with a lot of the offense being back and in the same system, but a need for a lot of new faces next year, if the game gets out of hand early, I expect Michigan to shuffle in backups much sooner than they did last year.

On the flip side, first game with a new and complex defense that is very agressive, I could see a bust on defense that gives up some points.

So if I were a betting man, which I'm not, I'd take the under, because hot damn, the spread is over 40 points.

WolvinLA2

September 2nd, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^

It will be one of those instances where one of our walk on DBs intercepts a ball on the 2ish yard line, runs backward some to try and get a return, then gets tackled in the end zone.  You won't care because you'll be more happy to see a young DB make a nice play or you won't know because we will be up 53-3 and you're barely paying attention.

BrownJuggernaut

September 2nd, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^

I imagine that Michigan will have a ball control, run heavy offensive game plan. Against a team with a decent defense, this might lead to a longer possession, lower scoring game. However, I just don't see Hawaii stopping Michigan enough to keep them off the board. On the other side, I see the D turning over possession quickly. Even if Michigan tries to slow things down, it's hard not to see them putting up a ton of points.

rice4114

September 2nd, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^

I think Hawaii will be a lot like UNLV of last year. They will finish with a near 30ppg offense (UNLV 28ppg in 2015) but we will handle them well. Hawaii could be a top half offense by years end so this is better than most mac teams at least.




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UM Fan in Nashville

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

Over/Under on how many QBs we play?  I could see Harbaugh throwing out Speight for the full first half + 1 series in the 2nd half (game is fully under control at this point), then O'Korn, Morris, Moores and Malzone to kneel down (holding out Peters as to not burn his redshirt).   

***The over/under does include Morris (or any others) getting time at a different position other than QB

BehindEnemyLin…

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^

I agree that I don't think we quite manage the cover, because it will be out of hand early and we win easily, 45-10.  However, I think this is the beginning of a great year, a Big 14 championship, and a playoff run.  I am so tired of the prognosticators picking OSU because they have six starters back and the don't need any more and they play us in Columbus.  Some throw in the observation that we can't expect our second tier outfit to beat MSU, Iowa, or OSU on the road, so we will have a gentlemanly 9-3 record.  A good year, but nothing special.  Then they throw in, "but they are just a year away" from serious contention, with the big games in Ann Arbor next year.  The problem is, whether we finish one, two, or three in the East this year, these experts will never pick us to win the league next year.  The same guys who say that OSU only needs six guys back to win will say that Michigan lost too much to win it in 2017.  We will lose a huge number of seniors and those experts will then decide that the loss of experience and senior leadership will have to doom us in 2017 (and they could be right).  Then it is back on the road in 2018, where we could not possibly win, right?

My point is, we are the best team in the league on any field, we will win it it this year, and we need to win it to get the Monkey and the Sparty and the Brutus off our backs.  We have to really get our confidence back to normal, pre-Rich Rod levels, and sow the seeds of doubt with our enemies.  I refuse to say, just wait until 2019, then we are going to be good and playing with the home field advantage.

Damn the so-called experts, full speed ahead!    

getsome

September 2nd, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^

mike patrick for the opener...yay!...its a rare broadcaster who can sensationalize an opening coin toss (and not in a semi-entertaining gus johnson way).  nice dude but he shouldve just walked into the sunset from the sunday night football booth.  now i really wish i were going to the game!

bronxblue

September 2nd, 2016 at 4:09 PM ^

Oh, the return of funny score predictions!  I look forward to UM scoring 7 TDs, kicking 1 FG, and going for 2 once.  Oh, and Hawaii getting a safety.

But yeah, this is going to be a bloodbath.