Preview: Gator Bowl Frippery And Prediction
Special Teams
Michigan has the worst field goal kickers in the country and will use them only when facing preposterous situations like fourth and goal from the fifteen. One of MSU's kickers is basically a Michigan kicker but he was replaced and the new guy is 9 of 11. [shakes fist at sky.]
The punt games are a wash. MSU is 28th in net punting; Will Hagerup and co are a couple yards off of that but it's not a big enough difference to expect it will matter. MSU was decent at punt returns but Bumphis has all but one on the year so that's a question mark for them; Michigan will just fair catch it. Kickoffs are also a wash, though Michigan gave up a KR touchdown against OSU in their last game.
Key Matchup: DON'T ALLOW A DAMN TOUCHDOWN
Intangibles
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- The first triple option pitch is so open it's not like there's anyone to blame.
- No one knows how to run a 3-3-5 still.
- Someone calls a halftime press conference.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- We're all like "oh, right, Mike Martin is a beast, I forgot."
- A healthy Denard is zinging accurate balls hither and thither.
- Greg Robinson's beaver makes frequent appearances for whatever reason.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; +1 for We're Playing The Illinois Offense Again, –1 for But Denard Is Healthy And So Is Odoms And So Isn't MSU's Best WR, +1 for Mississippi State's Defense Will Not Be As Accommodating As Illinois, +1 for Burn The Gardner Shirt Or Run Wildcat If—When—Robinson Gets His Ding, –1 for Chris Relf's Erratic Throwing Is Defense-Invariant, –1 for Healthy Mike Martin, +1 for Mad Cowbell Disease)
Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline 5; +1 8-5 Is Undeniable Progress, –1 for That Might Not Matter One Whit Anyway, +1 for The Faint Memory Of January Happy Events Is Like Motes Of Dust In A Room Half-Remembered, +1 for The Slight Chance It Might Impact Our Ability To Watch Denard Finish His Career Here, +1 for I Just Want To Win A Damn Game, –1 for I Know It's Over And Oh It Never Really Began But In My Heart It Was So Real, +1 for Seriously, Win.)
Loss will cause me to... sigh and brace for a press conference.
Win will cause me to... smile and brace for a press conference.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
I hate this section because predictions are stupid. I always have. That's why the bolded text is whining. I want Michigan to win so I think Michigan will win. I fear Michigan will lose so I think Michigan will lose. You see that behavior in the BlogPoll: the most irrationally exuberant voters are always from some team doing well at that second with caviar dreams and the most irrationally negative voters have just watched their puppy run over and loathe everything. I'm caught between the two, and don't really know what to expect in a game that seems like a replay of the Illinois game. The Illinois game turned out to be rather close.
A couple other blogospheric predictions have dispensed with the idea that predictions are anything other than hopes, with Blue Seoul declaring…
I hate making predictions, especially when the two teams are close. So instead I'll just put what I hope happens.
…and BWS saying…
This is probably a homer's prediction, but I don't like picking against Michigan when a game looks not only winnable but more or less like a coin flip
…and I'm here to tell you that I don't know what's going on, man. I want Michigan to win, so I'll predict them to win because I can, in defiance of Vegas and the vague hope it matters. I'll spare people the talking myself into it bit.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Demens is still aligned like an idiot would align him and MSU counters are highly effective, but Martin's presence makes the interior inverted stuff mostly ineffective.
- Michigan has two fifty-yard-plus touchdowns.
- Michigan gives up two fifty-yard-plus touchdowns.
- Michigan, 31-28, with Justin Meram erupting from the locker room with ten seconds left to boot a 200 yard field goal.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
...go with your heart. That's what I'm doing as well.
Let's Go Blue!
December 31st, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^
be cheering our fool heads off, no doubt.
I don't have the best feeling about this game, but that doesn't matter a single f'ing bit.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:05 PM ^
...my first bottle of champagne. GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!!
December 31st, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^
I like Michigan in this game. This much time for our defense to prepare against such a limited offense should see us play better...I would think...and hope.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:06 PM ^
... you are brilliant!
December 31st, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^
I think he just caught someone stealing the last slice of bacon. It was me.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:11 PM ^
Glad to see the GERG beaver is making its way into our hearts.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
Not sure I need to see his beaver.
December 31st, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Are there going to be a lot of camera shots to the wives in the stands...?
December 31st, 2010 at 6:16 PM ^
Whatever happens -- and lawd , for good or ill, we're in the chute now -- I do look forward to the day when the phrase "Greg Robinson's beaver" is retired from our lexicon.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:11 PM ^
And without Tate around to pick up the slack should Denard get dinged, I like our chances even less. You know that MSU will be totally devoted to banging the crap out of DR so they can face Kennedy or Gallon or a rusty and supposedly injured Devin Gardner instead.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:33 PM ^
MSU will not have had fifteen practices to focus on Denard->?->profit, unless they found out about Tate before the rest of us.
December 31st, 2010 at 5:20 PM ^
Up to this point...
December 31st, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^
The point, which you apparently missed: before there was Tate, now there is not Tate, which terrifies Don. Lack of Tate will have surprised MSU planners as much as it surprised us.
December 31st, 2010 at 6:39 PM ^
They've already been planning to play Denard. They've probably spent no time getting ready for Tate. They don't need to alter anything. What Don was saying is that MSU will now be going all out to give Denard a little extra "somethin' somethin'", because now if they knock him out, they don't face a very capable back-up who they haven't really prepared for, but most likely a guy who isn't even a quarterback, or a freshman who's been injured. Risk-reward in injuring Denard was a lot closer before Tate went home. Now they're miles apart.
January 1st, 2011 at 1:10 AM ^
Criminy.
Quoting Don: You know that MSU will be totally devoted to banging the crap out of DR so they can face Kennedy or Gallon or a rusty and supposedly injured Devin Gardner instead.
This was not a relevant scenario before Tate was ruled ineligible. That's the whole point. Tate was only ruled ineligible recently, so MSU has only "been totally devoted to xxx" in the last few days, not for 15 practices.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:12 PM ^
have a hard time imagining anyone scoring less than 30 on us. I think in order for us to win, we will need to score much more than 31.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
I'll take the Illinois game WITHOUT the 4 turnovers -- which would make it Michigan 53, MSU 37 in regulation!!
December 31st, 2010 at 7:30 PM ^
Michigan 45(yes we do kick a field goal) MSU 38. Only 18 hours till kickoff yeah!!!!!!
December 31st, 2010 at 4:28 PM ^
December 31st, 2010 at 4:34 PM ^
Let's hope that you are right.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:40 PM ^
BKFinest it.
December 31st, 2010 at 5:01 PM ^
Maybe it's the fever talking, but I think our offense will be back to its early season form. I'm excited to watch our guys again.
December 31st, 2010 at 5:02 PM ^
for the excellent work on the Gator Bowl and all previews this season. Hard to believe that in 24 hours we won't be able to discuss actual football games (excluding the spring game) for 9 months. My heart says UM, but not with much confidence. I will enjoy the ride regardless and root like hell for the team, the team, the team.
GO BLUE!
December 31st, 2010 at 5:18 PM ^
You've been saving that one up, haven't you?
December 31st, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
Yes, D Rob is healthy, and we've had a couple weeks to prepare. Those are good things. But MSU has a very strong D, and is well coached. They are a physical team, and we haven't fared that well against physical teams this year.
I agree with Brian. I want to win so I'll say "we'll win!". Then I know what we have - awesome offense, no special teams, no defense (hell, one out of three ain't bad), and it gives me great concern. So I start thinking "we're going to get killed".
I have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow. I need to start drinking now so that I still have a buzz at game time, because of all the stupid things I've done in the last few months this may be the dumbest - I'm starting a new training program tomorrow that includes weight training, heavy cardio, and... wait for it - no drinking. Damn. Tomorrow is going to suck. Unless it doesn't.
Go Blue!
December 31st, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^
I've watched this team far too closely to predict certain victory in this game. I am definitely very optimistic about our chances, though. Healthy Denard makes it so. And more practices for our young secondary can't possibly hurt, can it? CAN IT?
December 31st, 2010 at 5:52 PM ^
this actually seems like a game the 3-3-5 was built for—a matchup against a dedicated spread rushing attack.
We're going to win going away. BOOK IT.
December 31st, 2010 at 6:01 PM ^
Sheesh. I was referred to this page via EDSBS. I've learned more about my own team after several days of reading this page than I care to admit... and I go to the games.
We need something like this. This is fun.
Best wishes for a happy new year to you and all your readers. Don't freeze your tails off up there.
December 31st, 2010 at 6:13 PM ^
That's not an infectious disease site, is it?
December 31st, 2010 at 6:42 PM ^
With football.
December 31st, 2010 at 6:45 PM ^
Everyone would have one! But yes, there is a cornucopia of information here.
<br>
<br>And hey, it was 48 here today...not bad considering how cold Jacksonville was earlier in the week... But it only matters if it's cold at game time, and it's supposed to be nice and warm. (Too bad, liked seeing Miami act like they didn't want to be there...).
December 31st, 2010 at 7:32 PM ^
Hey, there is absolutely nothing wrong with adopting Michigan as your second favorite team!
December 31st, 2010 at 7:03 PM ^
UM will win because they have something "real" to play for - even if it isn't going to be a factor, a win tomorrow means 8-5 and further validation that their coach should stick around. They won for Carr when he left, and I expect that this group of kids will do everything it takes to get RR a win.
December 31st, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^
December 31st, 2010 at 7:31 PM ^
Happy New Year!
This game reminds me alot og the Uconn game. Specifically, a game I think/thought we should win, but was terrified to lose due to the consequences and series of events that are/were sure to follow.
That said, I am super excited for this game and feel,after the game is over ,it will be thought of as a coming out party for this teams future.
Therefore, Michigan 38 Miss. State 21. RR is the coach for 2011 o and beyond.
Go Blue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 31st, 2010 at 8:14 PM ^
I'm 95% sure we'll all be happy tomorrow night.
December 31st, 2010 at 10:00 PM ^
I know. My mother in law lives there.
December 31st, 2010 at 10:47 PM ^
December 31st, 2010 at 11:20 PM ^
December 31st, 2010 at 11:36 PM ^
Michigan shocks the world and rolls, 56-21.
January 1st, 2011 at 1:37 AM ^
I am just going to watch and enjoy. I have been surprised by the amount of good games, the underdog wins, the crazy plays at the end of the game, the big hits, teams coming out flat, and the poor kicking. I hope it is exciting.
January 1st, 2011 at 1:58 AM ^
Sitting in my sister's apartment in Johannesburg, I'm furious that I booked my flight in July. I'll be boarding the plane back to the states (and praying that the plane has wifi) right around kickoff.
Currently in my "Worst State Ever" shirt... switching to "Strike a Pose" before takeoff, I'll just say happy new year to everyone, and GO BLUE!
Michigan 48-31
January 1st, 2011 at 8:21 AM ^
I think the "Intangibles" clearly favor us today
January 1st, 2011 at 9:23 AM ^
I think this looks like a pretty close game on paper. That leads me to think that the emotional state of the two teams will be the decisive factor. I have no idea what MSU's emotional state will be. But I have compiled a quick emotional ledger to weigh those intangible moral factors for Michigan.
Possible Emotional Motivators
1. The desire to win the game to Save RR's job gives M a boost
2. Disrespect from Vegas gives M the killer underdog mojo
3. RR silenty vows to put up 70 in a final defense (pun intended?) of his tenure
4. Denard dials the dilithium up to 11 in his first game in front of home town fans.
5. M inspired by Illinois and Iowa wins, starts to believe again in the B1G.
6. Being back in a Jan. 1 bowl puts some swagger back in the Blue team.
7. The defense, tired of the mockery and humiliation, conducts a voodoo suicide pact ritual and seeks bloody vengeance on the hapless Bullies.
Possible Emotional Downers
1. RR's unclear future spawns doubt and sows low morale
2. Losing Tate for the game drains players' confidence
3. Losing Tate for the game freaks coaches out, who play to protect DR and get conservative
4. RR knows his job is toast and doesn't care anymore
5. Denard gets so nervous in front of family he reverts to freshman form
6. M watched Nebraska get trucked and realizes The Age of Traditional Powers is over
7. Team realizes they are finally in a bowl game again and choke from the pressure.
Of course, this could all be bull*.
Michigan 42 MSU 35
Go Blue!
January 1st, 2011 at 11:33 AM ^
is a stretch to say the least. There are probably a couple dozen players on the team that don 't even know who won that game, much less care.
January 1st, 2011 at 10:41 AM ^
"sigh and brace for a press conference"
"smile and brace for a press conference"
couldn't have said it better
January 1st, 2011 at 11:20 AM ^
January 1st, 2011 at 11:46 AM ^
One more "Worry if..."
WHEEL ROUTE (of doom)
Especially since this is Illinois, part II...
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