Preview: Eastern Michigan 2011 Comment Count

Brian

Other stuff: EMU blog Eagle Totem does the Q&A thing with this here blog, MNB. Know Your Foe from the MZone. TTB predicts the annual Mike Cox long run against crappy competition. BWS lays out expectations. Will Campbell features. Surprise! No. M&GB and M&BN both put more effort into their previews than I did.

Essentials

eastern-michigan-football
WHAT Michigan vs Eastern Michigan
WHERE Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon EDT,
September 17th 2011
THE LINE Michigan –29.5
TELEVISION BTN
WEATHER Sunny, mid-60s

Q: is "Embrace the Process" the world's worst motivational slogan or Ron English expressing disapproval of Brady Hoke criticism?

A: WHY DID YOU LEAVE TWO DEEP SAFETIES BACK AGAINST ARMANTI EDWARDS YOU TWIT

Run Offense vs. Eastern Michigan

Eastern's only games this year have come against FCS opponents, which tells you something about the program: they aren't even thinking about getting to six wins and a bowl game.

For what it's worth, EMU was 118th in rushing defense last year, giving up over 230 yards per game at over six yards per attempt. When Jerry Kill's NIU Huskies and their #7 rushing attack rolled in at the end of the season, the carnage was impressive: 544 yards and eight touchdowns. NIU averaged over 15 yards a carry!

So… yeah.

Key Matchup: There is no key matchup.

Thing That Would Make Me Feel Better About The Big Ten Schedule: I'm not sure there is one. I'm sure we'll get a heavy dose of I-form. It'll be interesting to see whether or not Michigan can eclipse EMU's YPC average from last year from actual I-form running plays. Survey says… yes, but it will be close.

Pass Offense vs. Eastern Michigan

EMU's pass efficiency defense last year was somehow worse than their rush defense, finishing 119th out of 120. The only team worse? Jay Hopson's Memphis Tigers. EMU gave up 9 YPA, gave up 32 touchdown to two interceptions, and finished 118th in sacks.

So… yeah.

Thing That Would Make Me Feel Better About The Big Ten Schedule: Denard accuracy.

Run Defense vs. Eastern Michigan

alex-gillett

via the Eastern Echo

This is the solitary thing Eastern is not atrocious at. They are far from good, but averaging 4.1 YPC is almost kind of okay—it's better than several Lloyd Carr offenses managed. I am not going to go into all the reasons this turns me into Brian Kelly.

/beats head against wall
/feels strange kinship with Mike DeBord

Instead I'll emphasize that Eastern couldn't move the ball at all against even horrible BCS level competition last year (2.8 YPC versus Vandy) but that they did decently against the 2009 Michigan defense (3.7 YPC despite losing their QB and putting in a freshman Alex Gillett), which presaged a lot of nasty things. I'll be interested to see how wacky Mattison gets and what the effects are. I'd prefer a whole lot of vanilla just because it will conceal blitz packages for tougher opponents but also because Michigan needs work on being vanilla effectively.

Thing That Would Make Me Feel Better About The Big Ten Schedule: Will Campbell increases his share of playing time; Cam Gordon comes back and plays well; Brandin Hawthorne solidifies his spot at WLB; holding EMU to three YPC.

Pass Defense vs. Eastern Michigan

EMU just missed finishing in triple digits here, managing to creep up to 98th in passer efficiency. Gillett's numbers weren't that horrible—7.1 YPA—except when it came to interceptions, of which he threw 13 in 229 attempts. That's a significantly higher INT percentage than even Denard. Also he was horrible against decent competition, which Michigan may just be in the secondary.

Thing That Would Make Me Feel Better About The Big Ten Schedule: Lots of pressure generated by the defensive line.

Special Teams

Two games, no field goal attempts. I endorse this course of action.

Key Matchup: GIBBONS YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS AAAAAA

Intangibles

Double digit spreads against MAC teams don't warrant cat pictures until the current coach loses to one (or a Horror). This is Michigan.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Eastern Michigan gains any yards.
  • Eastern Michigan makes any stops.
  • Eastern Michigan does anything right at all.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • You think about last week's Notre Dame game.
  • You think about last week's Notre Dame game.
  • You think about last week's Notre Dame game.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline 5; –1 for Eastern's run D, –1 for Eastern's pass D, –1 for Eastern's pass O, –1 for Ron English against a mobile quarterback, –1 for Of 17 Official Stats The NCAA Tracks Eastern Was In Triple Digits In 11 Last Year.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for NOT AGAIN GOD DAMMIT, +1 for Losing to Ron English With a Mobile Quarterback is Definitely a Sign of the Apocalypse, +1 for I'm Sick Of Showing Up In LOL Photographs On Black Heart Gold Pants, +1 for Indisputable Evidence The Curse Of Letting Bo Die Instead Of Sacrificing As Many Virgins As It Took To Get The Job Done (Sorry, School of Engineering) Persists Despite This Is Michigan, +1 for I Hate Old TJ Hooker Episodes.)

Loss will cause me to... wake up in former Soviet republic married to a goat and happy the only television in the country is hardwired to show old TJ Hooker episodes. 

Win will cause me to... experience no emotion whatsoever.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins by a lot.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • We run from the I on half of all plays.
  • Rawls debuts and does something cool, then disappears to the bench for the rest of the year.
  • Everyone reads way too much into whatever Will Campbell does.
  • Michigan, 35-10.

Comments

BlueDragon

September 16th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^

No cat pictures, Brian?  I can't remember the last time one of your previews did not feature a kitty.

200 yards rushing for non-Denard tailbacks, and three touchdowns.

Denard throws for 2 TDs and runs for one TD.

Needs

September 16th, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^

I don't know. Maybe he became a fan in the mid-80s, when there were all those Bo-Frye battles.

That thread's funny given that Iowa finished 7-5, which many were dismissing as an impossibility.

Edit: I read Mgoblog as Michigan. No idea there. 

lakeside

September 16th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

He really gets unhinged in this diary post.  Jilted lover?

Editorial note #2: this author has been banned from mgoblog.com, for asking questions and being obstreperous, so perhaps he has an axe to grind. (OTOH, this is the internet, what's up with the sanctimony?)

I wonder what his mgoblog account name was.

Edit: Bellanca1: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/am-i-nuts#comment-240441

ItakeHGH

September 16th, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^

Michigan has two 100 yard rushers from their running backs!



It doesn't take two possessions for michigan's defense to finally do something



Hemmingway catches a pass where he is wide open



Will campbell gets a sack



100 yards and a touchdown for kinsman thomas... the guy can flat out play. (Former South Caralina commit) big, strong, physical...



Eastern has a 100 yard rusher



Michigan 45 (yes field goal!!!)

EMU 17

Needs

September 16th, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^

This, from BWS on Gardner, is just ridiculous. 

I'm relatively certain that he'll never see significant playing time at Michigan

 

To be "relatively certain" that a 5-star backup qb with either 3 or 4 years of eligibility will not play, based presumably on the commitment of another qb who's presently a high school junior, totally strains credibility. 

I should probably take it up over there, because he writes well and does a pretty good job breaking down plays, but blind, shot in the dark shit like that leads me to not trust anything he writes and makes me not want to bother to understand his logic.

mikoyan

September 16th, 2011 at 2:09 PM ^

The EMU Alumnus in me is saying 35-14 Michigan.  The Michigan fan in me is saying about 49-14.  So yeah, I predict that Michigan will crush them.  So my only hope is for a good game and noone gets hurt.

On a personal note, I hope I get some good Denard pictures.

ClearEyesFullHart

September 16th, 2011 at 2:18 PM ^

One of the few games in which I cannot boo the opponent with clear conscience.  All I want is the ensured health and wellness of both teams, and a Michigan victory.

snoopblue

September 16th, 2011 at 2:21 PM ^

They won't run up the score. Not against their coaching staff. The second half is just going to get our depth game reps anyway. If, by chance, EMU manages to come back into the game against our 2nd and 3rd teams, our first team will come back and be put in a situation where they must score.

WolverineHistorian

September 16th, 2011 at 2:36 PM ^

The Eastern game 2 years ago, just like this season, followed a Hollywood finish against Notre Dame.  But I remember it was a very frustrating game with the defense being WTF like and us only leading 24-17 in the middle of the third quarter.  Tate completed 5 passes all day, Denard was 0-4 with 2 interceptions.  In the 4th quarter, we just had Denard do nothing but run and he scored a couple TD's.  It was probably the ugliest 45-17 win a team could record.

That game set the wheels in motion of wondering if we should be worried or not.  Then the following week, the defense was torched all day against lowly Indiana and we had confirmation that the team was in HUGE trouble the rest of the season.

I'd prefer that we not go through that again.  I want a blowout.  I don't want the high of the Notre Dame game to go away just yet.  And for GOD's sake, defense, don't let another opponent fly down the field and score with ease on their first possession. 

MAgoBLUE

September 16th, 2011 at 3:35 PM ^

Is EMU serious with their media guide?  "Embrace the Process"?  I guess "You're Gonna Sit There with a Positive Attitude and Watch Us Struggle Towards Respectability" wouldn't fit.

GoWings2008

September 16th, 2011 at 3:50 PM ^

"I don't want to sell anything, buy anything, or process anything as a career. I don't want to sell anything bought or processed, or buy anything sold or processed, or process anything sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or processed. You know, as a career, I don't want to do that."  - Lloyd Dobler

Tha Stunna

September 16th, 2011 at 4:45 PM ^

Ugh.  I'm less optimistic than everyone else, given there's some chance of EMU not totally sucking this year.  I wouldn't be surprised if our defense gave up more than ten, even if our offense shouldl run wild.  Just because Michigan should crush this team into the ground, doesn't mean that they will at first.  Recent games against EMU tend to be underwhelming performances by Michigan.

uminks

September 16th, 2011 at 5:50 PM ^

I'd like to see Gardner get in the game during the 2nd half.  I think he will lead the team to two more TD drives and the subs may get to play on defense. I'm thinking 42-17 as a final score.

SFBayAreaBlue

September 16th, 2011 at 7:36 PM ^

let's not get carried away.  They've got at least one speedster at WR, Gillet has a year of experience, even their backup QB is a big athletic guy that could run for some 1st downs.  Yes we should destroy them along both lines, and their defense shouldn't be able to hang with our offense.  But things happen.  I'll be happy with a two TD win, and expect they'll put up close to 20 points.  

griesecheeks

September 17th, 2011 at 12:30 AM ^

Predictions:

(1) Denard carries the ball no more than a half dozen times, cracking 100 yards with a big play or 2 (see: BGSU), and has a high completion pct for lowish yardage in a small sample size. Lots of Gardner, who will torch EMU, and incite the little pack of trolls on the internet into proclaiming that Denard should be benched or moved to running back.

(2) One or more tailbacks have huge games where we, as spectators, erroneously annoint them as "the guy". My prediction? Shaw goes for multiple TD's, and Justice Hayes makes a positive impression...

(3) 40+ running plays that will make most of us wish to fast forward to the B1G Schedule as the boredom intensifies into the 2nd half.

(4) Roy Roundtree gets more looks, ends up with a half dozen + catches for around 100 yards.

(5) I will be golfing by the start of the 4th quarter.

(6) John McColgan makes multiple catches and carries multiple times.

DeepBlue83

September 17th, 2011 at 8:20 AM ^

about this game is that Hoke will take his foot off the gas and settle for something like a 35-14 win.  We really need to press our advantage on offense and build up a big enough lead for our reserves to play pretty much the whole 4th quarter.  Gardner needs some reps, and I'd like to see guys like Ryan, Morgan, Countess, Jackson and Campbell get some significant PT.  Not to mention giving our starters a rest.  We've had very few games in the last few years where we could do that, and it's a big drag on the program compared to the teams we're competing against.  You need blowouts to give your younger players a chance to develop, and to keep your starters from getting too dinged up for later in the season.