Preview: Coppin State
The Essentials
WHAT | Michigan v. Coppin State |
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WHERE | Ann Arbor, MI |
WHEN | 7:00PM EST December 22nd, 2009 |
THE LINE | NL |
TELEVISION | BTN.com ($2.99) |
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
Michigan
Michigan finally looked like a competent team again against Kansas, dropping an 11-point decision on the road to the #1 team in all the land. However, the shooting deficiencies continued. Though I said last week that it may just be a slump that players might snap out of, John Beilein said that this team may just not have the personnel necessary (though Zack Novak's illness affected his shooting stroke, so hopefully there's a bit of upside there, and if Manny's hamstring injury ever gets resolved, that could help as well). The solution, according to Beilein, may be to put up fewer threes. A game against an overmatched opponent like Coppin State may provide enough open looks for the players to regain some confidence, but we'll have to see.
Defensively, Michigan looked as good against Kansas as they have all year. Beilein said that the team is still working on implementing a few new wrinkles, and the coaches are coming up with new ways to teach the players to get the defense working properly.
Darius Morris came off the bench against Kansas on Saturday, and Beilein said the lineup will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future. Morris didn't have a problem with it, saying it gave him some time to get into the groove of the game before he was actually expected to contribute. In other personnel news, walkon Eric Puls has quit the team in an effort to get his engineering degree finished in 4 years, and Beilein grimly replied "we certainly hope not" when asked if Ben Cronin's injuries might threaten his career.
Coppin State
Just because the Eagles haven't been lighting the world on fire, the Wolverines are still going to take them seriously. Beilein said that they're a team who will do whatever it takes to stay in a game, which generally means play at a snail's pace to reduce the number of possessions. If they can stay in the game to the end, said Beilein, they're a definite threat to come away with the upset.
So far Coppin State has beaten only two opponents that hail from Division 1 in Maryland-Baltimore County and Loyola-Maryland. They have lost to Colorado, USC, Morgan State, and West Virginia. Guards Lenny Young, Vince Goldberry, and Kareem Brown are 1-2-3 on the team in scoring and Branden Doughty is a forward leading the team in rebounding.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
Michigan v. Coppin State: National Ranks | |||
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Category | Michigan Rank | CSU Rank | Advantage |
Mich eFG% v. CSU Def eFG% | 259 | 155 | CC |
Mich Def eFG% v. CSU eFG% | 249 | 312 | M |
Mich TO% v. CSU Def TO% |
3 | 141 | MM |
Mich Def TO% v. CSU TO% | 41 | 204 | MM |
Mich OReb% v. CSU DReb% |
233 | 346 | MM |
Mich DReb% v. CSU OReb% | 300 | 319 | M |
Mich FTR v. CSU Opp FTR |
300 | 275 | C |
Mich Opp FTR v. CSU FTR |
14 | 272 | MMM |
Mich AdjO v. CSU AdjD | 136 | 242 | MM |
Mich AdjD v. CSU AdjO | 128 | 300 | MM |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
As you can see, Michigan is better than Coppin State in just about every category. Aside from the Wolverines' inability to shoot and get to the line, Michigan has a huge advantage. Coppin State is surprisingly good at defending the three pointer, but so was Kansas and Michigan got a ton of open looks against the Jayhawks. It's a matter of actually hitting the looks that they get.
With Coppin's lack of size and Michigan's ongoing shooting troubles from the outside, you may see a heavy dose of DeShawn Sims scoring inside, or at least trying to draw the defense in to open things up from the outside. A number of backcuts may be available against an aggressive perimeter defense as well.
This looks like a similar game to Detroit on the face. For some reason though, I think it will get out of hand a little quicker than the contest against the Titans. It should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams playing at a slowwww pace (Unless you're a diehard hoops guy, or you aren't too interested in scoring, don't waste the 3 bucks to watch this one online). It should be played in the high 50s or low 60s, with Michigan getting a comfortable 15-point win.
Elsewhere
Dylan previews the Eagles at UMHoops. AnnArbor.com's Mike Rothstein talks about shooting fewer 3s, and the defensive adjustments.
Since it's unlikely Michigan is upset by the Eagles and it's going to be tough for people to watch on TV, I'm considering a CIL chat during the game. Vote for/against in the comments, and e-mail me if you're interested in helping moderate.
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:59 PM ^
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December 23rd, 2009 at 2:12 AM ^
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