Preview: Coppin State Comment Count

Tim

The Essentialscoppin.png

WHAT Michigan v. Coppin State
WHERE Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 7:00PM EST
December 22nd, 2009
THE LINE NL
TELEVISION BTN.com ($2.99)

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

Michigan

Michigan finally looked like a competent team again against Kansas, dropping an 11-point decision on the road to the #1 team in all the land. However, the shooting deficiencies continued. Though I said last week that it may just be a slump that players might snap out of, John Beilein said that this team may just not have the personnel necessary (though Zack Novak's illness affected his shooting stroke, so hopefully there's a bit of upside there, and if Manny's hamstring injury ever gets resolved, that could help as well). The solution, according to Beilein, may be to put up fewer threes. A game against an overmatched opponent like Coppin State may provide enough open looks for the players to regain some confidence, but we'll have to see.

Defensively, Michigan looked as good against Kansas as they have all year. Beilein said that the team is still working on implementing a few new wrinkles, and the coaches are coming up with new ways to teach the players to get the defense working properly.

Darius Morris came off the bench against Kansas on Saturday, and Beilein said the lineup will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future. Morris didn't have a problem with it, saying it gave him some time to get into the groove of the game before he was actually expected to contribute. In other personnel news, walkon Eric Puls has quit the team in an effort to get his engineering degree finished in 4 years, and Beilein grimly replied "we certainly hope not" when asked if Ben Cronin's injuries might threaten his career.

Coppin State

Just because the Eagles haven't been lighting the world on fire, the Wolverines are still going to take them seriously. Beilein said that they're a team who will do whatever it takes to stay in a game, which generally means play at a snail's pace to reduce the number of possessions. If they can stay in the game to the end, said Beilein, they're a definite threat to come away with the upset.

So far Coppin State has beaten only two opponents that hail from Division 1 in Maryland-Baltimore County and Loyola-Maryland. They have lost to Colorado, USC, Morgan State, and West Virginia. Guards Lenny Young, Vince Goldberry, and Kareem Brown are 1-2-3 on the team in scoring and Branden Doughty is a forward leading the team in rebounding.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Coppin State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank CSU Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. CSU Def eFG% 259 155 CC
Mich Def eFG% v. CSU eFG% 249 312 M
Mich TO% v. CSU Def TO%
3 141 MM
Mich Def TO% v. CSU TO% 41 204 MM
Mich OReb% v. CSU DReb%
233 346 MM
Mich DReb% v. CSU OReb% 300 319 M
Mich FTR v. CSU Opp FTR
300 275 C
Mich Opp FTR v. CSU FTR
14 272 MMM
Mich AdjO v. CSU AdjD 136 242 MM
Mich AdjD v. CSU AdjO 128 300 MM

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

As you can see, Michigan is better than Coppin State in just about every category. Aside from the Wolverines' inability to shoot and get to the line, Michigan has a huge advantage. Coppin State is surprisingly good at defending the three pointer, but so was Kansas and Michigan got a ton of open looks against the Jayhawks. It's a matter of actually hitting the looks that they get.

With Coppin's lack of size and Michigan's ongoing shooting troubles from the outside, you may see a heavy dose of DeShawn Sims scoring inside, or at least trying to draw the defense in to open things up from the outside. A number of backcuts may be available against an aggressive perimeter defense as well.

This looks like a similar game to Detroit on the face. For some reason though, I think it will get out of hand a little quicker than the contest against the Titans. It should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams playing at a slowwww pace (Unless you're a diehard hoops guy, or you aren't too interested in scoring, don't waste the 3 bucks to watch this one online). It should be played in the high 50s or low 60s, with Michigan getting a comfortable 15-point win.

Elsewhere

Dylan previews the Eagles at UMHoops. AnnArbor.com's Mike Rothstein talks about shooting fewer 3s, and the defensive adjustments.

Since it's unlikely Michigan is upset by the Eagles and it's going to be tough for people to watch on TV, I'm considering a CIL chat during the game. Vote for/against in the comments, and e-mail me if you're interested in helping moderate.

Comments

jamiemac

December 22nd, 2009 at 3:14 PM ^

Fang Mitchell still coaches Coppin. Been there for like 30 years, Anyway, for court side observers, his antics will be worth the price of admission. In fact, I demand MGoPaul interview and photog him for tomorrow's blog.

toasterhands

December 22nd, 2009 at 6:26 PM ^

opportunity for guys like Wright and Vogrich to maybe hit some shots and gain confidence going into BT play, not to mention having Novak and LLP see the ball go in the basket from deep as well. Would like it to be a 20+ blowout but with the likely slow pace it's probably not going to happen unless M's D is especially active. Important game for Eso as well considering he'll probably get some decent minutes... if he shows a lot more worth than Wright than maybe Eso moves ahead of him in the rotation??

Tater

December 22nd, 2009 at 7:37 PM ^

I think that might be a very good thing for UM to do until some issues get fixed. I am rather old school on this; I would rather see them make the other team play more defense every time down the floor, but still allow the open back door any time it is open. I won't go as far as saying they should follow the old Bob Knight "four passes or you are coming off the floor" rule because it makes things too predictable, but it would be great if they ran it more like the original Princeton offense for awhile. Until they develop more depth and hit more shots, this would help compress the games and keep the other team working harder. This could also negate other teams' depth advantage and help even out the fatigue level at the end of games.