Preview: Bowling Green 2010 Comment Count

Brian

Note: for more on the BGSU perspective check out Oriental Andrew's Other People's Pressers series.

bgsu_logoEssentials

WHAT Michigan vs Bowling Green
WHERE Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN Noon Eastern, September 25th 2010
THE LINE Michigan –25.5
TELEVISION The saddest ESPN2 game ever
WEATHER Partly cloudy, around 60 degrees
0% chance of rain

Run Offense vs. Bowling Green

This should be the now-usual demolition job. Michigan's currently the #6 rushing offense in the country, averaging almost six yards a carry. Denard and all that.

On the other side of the ball, Bowling Green has struggled badly against their opening slate of Troy, Tulsa, and Marshall, ceding 5.3 YPC against teams not featuring Denard and all that. The slate:

Opponent Att Yards TD YPC
Troy 43 207 2 4.8
Tulsa 40 190 1 4.8
Marshall 26 185 3 7.1

They're 98th in rushing defense. By the Mathlete's reckoning they're 95th and giving up an extra touchdown per game than a hypothetically average team would; Michigan is eighth nationally at +11. If Bowling Green even slows Michigan that will be a win for them and an ominous omen for Michigan. They probably won't live up to the bounty promised by results to date—getting that +18 on the ground would be a truly stupendous day,.

One point in BG's favor: they kind of sort of shut down Marshall's primary tailback, who averaged 2.9 YPC on 14 attempts. Unfortunately, some other guy had a 68-yard run… and six other carries that averaged 8.8 yards apiece. They are not so good at the run defense.

denard-robinson-is-made-of-dilithium

They seem to know this. This is their plan to stop Robinson, according to FalconBlog:

TWB: How do you expect the Falcons to game-plan against Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense?

FB: Answer 1:  Not to give anything away, but it will include religious conversions, incense, and the sacrifice of a small animal.
Answer 2:  You can game plan for Denard Robinson?
Answer 3:  Let him score on every play and take our chances with the defense.
Answer 4:  OK.  Seriously.

My guess is that we will game plan for Michigan by trying to limit the damage Robinson does on the ground and try to force him to hurt us in the air.  I think he will get his yards, but we have to tackle him when we get the chance.

Not to get all arrogant or nothin', but Michigan's main concern in the run game should be finding another tailback to join the Shaw/Smith pairing. Fitzgerald Toussaint is "probable" this week and did dress against UMass; he and Cox should see some carries starting in the second quarter. Hopefully Michigan will get enough breathing room to limit Denard's carries.

Key Matchup: TAYLOR LEWAN HATES DONKEYS (if his ankle is okay)

Pass Offense vs. Bowling Green

BG is less of a disaster zone here thanks to the generosity of Marshall's quarterback, who served up four interceptions last week en route to a 71.2 passer rating. Their dossier to date:

Opponent Att Cmp Yards TD INT PCT% YPA
Troy 41 28 268 1 2 68% 6.5
Tulsa 48 27 356 2 1 56% 7.4
Marshall 47 20 191 1 4 43% 4.1

Not bad, but not consistent. The Mathlete has them a field goal below average; Michigan is +5 in their games against I-A opponents and saw Robinson put up a +15 in just 14 throws against UMass. BG will be a tougher matchup unless they get killed on play action after Michigan starts gashing them on the ground; they're 21st nationally in pass efficiency defense. They're only 87th in sacks, though, and a big chunk of their success against opponent passing attacks has been those seven interceptions.

The key for Michigan will be keeping themselves out of obvious passing downs and attacking linebackers and secondary members who are anticipating run plays. If Michigan has the sort of success on the ground the above section implies they will, Robinson should have another efficient day throwing to single covered receivers and the occasional guy who's ridiculously wide open.

Key Matchup: Denard realizing when he needs to put some air under the ball if Roy Roundtree is open deep.

Run Defense vs. Bowling Green

Bowling Green is not much of a running team but will it matter against Michigan? Let's hope so, since they might be more of one with their starting quarterback out. After two weeks in which BG threw almost two-thirds of the time, BG flipped that in the Marshall game. That's partially the injury, partially a desire to run out the clock late.

Either way, the results weren't great. Starting tailback Willie Geter netted exactly 100 yards on 31 carries, an average of 3.2; his backup did a half-yard better on six carries. Michigan's run defense might not be much better than Marshall's, but it probably won't be a worse. Or that much worse, anyway. The Herd is currently 86th nationally.

Michigan and BG are both about average nationally to the Mathlete, but those numbers don't include the bludgeration Michigan suffered against UMass. Reasonable expectations are yielding Geter's best day of the year… but not by much!

Key Matchup: Obi Ezeh against his many critics, those many critics against critics of the critics, and the original critics' criticism of the criticism of the critics' critics.

University of Tulsa Photography Pass Defense vs. Bowling Green

This is likely to be the bulk of Bowling Green's offense even with the expected absence of starting quarterback Matt Schliz, who seriously needs a T in his last name. Schliz put up 43 and 40 attempts in his two healthy games, averaging 5.1 and 6.6 YPA, which fits in with descriptions of the Clawfense as an offense mad for short passes.

In his absence it looks like Bowling Green will go with more of the same, except not that good:

The Wolverine Blog: How will the injury to quarterback Matt Schilz affect Bowling Green’s pass-heavy offense?

FalconBlog: The injury to Schilz will definitely have an impact on our offense.  He is the only QB on the team who has started a game, and has by far the most game experience.  Furthermore, he won the job pretty handily.  Our other QBs are talented but untested in game situations, and this is the Big House.  Now, they are both from the same general mold—drop back passers who are not real threats to run, so we probably can pretty much keep the same game plan in, only with a skinnier playbook.  I would expect the biggest impact to be accuracy and facing pressure.

Aaron Pankratz, who seriously needs an S in his last name, came in when Schliz was hurt, completing five of eight passes for 111(!) yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He may or may not start, with a walk-on the other primary option.

Whoever is the starter will make it a point to pepper Kamar Jorden with passes. The JUCO transfer already has 34 catches this year despite having a 42-yard Hail Mary and a 79-yard screen pass called back against Tulsa. The catch pictured above was brought in. BGSU's next leading receiver has twelve catches. The Falcons tend to have eyes for one guy—last year Freddie Barnes was the nation's leading receiver with a mindboggling 155 catches for 1770 yards.

Key Matchup: Kovacs and Gordon tackling. An offense like this puts a lot of pressure on the wing defenders to buzz flats, make solid tackles, and set up plenty of third downs that will eventually see the punt team show up. At least, that's the idea.

Special Teams

Guh.

Key Matchup: STOP KICKING THE DAMN BALL

Intangibles

Kittens still not warranted for a spread basically as big as the one against UMass even after, you know, the UMass game.

her life is in your hands

But, yeah, Michigan: her life is in your hands.

Aw, don't say that.

Her life is in your hands.

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Bowling Green's wack ground game is consistently picking up yards, like 6-8 yards.
  • Cam Gordon is tested and doesn't do so good.
  • AIGH KICKING GAME.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Taylor Lewan reprises the donkey ridin'.
  • A tailback emerges from the depths and impresses, probably Toussaint
  • Denard adds another tool to his Batman utility belt.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; –1 for Denard!, –1 for Bowling Green's Run Defense!, –1 for The Combination Of The Two!, –1 for MAC Team, –1 for MAC Team Minus Their Starting Quarterback, –1 for Passing Oriented MAC Team Minus Their Starting Quarterback, +1 for Oh God What Was That Last Week, +1 for There's A Toledo Never Forget, Too)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for All That Stuff From Last Week Pretty Much Except With Slightly Less Force, +1 for But Not Really Any Less Force Since I Bet UMass Would Spank BG Minus Their Starting Quarterback, +1 for This Week Was Highly Annoying And Michigan Actually Won, +1 for Hey Who Wants A CHOCOLATE BOWL GAME, +1 for Constant Rich Rodriguez Job Savin' Campaign.)

Loss will cause me to... wrap myself into a eight-foot taco, label it "GIANT FOOD," and hope Taylor Lewan walks by hungry.

Win will cause me to... read hopeful signs into the defense's performance even if unwarranted.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Linebacker bounceback day, with Mouton having a good-ish game and Ezeh approaching zero.
  • This time we finally get some carries for non-Shaw/Smith tailbacks, with Toussaint getting half a dozen.
  • We get to see some backup quarterbacks this time around.
  • Michigan, 46-21.

Comments

Six Zero

September 24th, 2010 at 2:20 PM ^

I can't hear from all these darn critics.

EDIT:  Let's review:  So the name that I do NOT want to hear at all this Saturday, but probably will, and probably for a big play, is Kamar Jorden

JeepinBen

September 24th, 2010 at 2:57 PM ^

and my laughter around the office after reading this:

"Loss will cause me to... wrap myself into a eight-foot taco, label it "GIANT FOOD," and hope Taylor Lewan walks by hungry."

Amazing as always, Brian

Edit: Would it by any chance be a taco bed?

michgoblue

September 24th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^

For me, the fear / paranoia level usually corresponds directly to my excitement level during the week heading into the game.  I imagine that this is true for many readers.  I look forward to every single Michigan game, but hard to get too excited about this game.  I only raise the point because I have seen a ton of comments complaining about how hard our 2012 schedule is going to be with Nebraska, OSU, ND and now Alabama on the road. 

For those of you who are unhappy with the decision to play Alabama in Dallas, as opposed to a cupcake game, as yourself this:  how much more amazing would this week be if we were playing Alabama(!!) -  in Dallas - at night - on national tv - than playing Bowling Green on ESPN2. 

michgoblue

September 24th, 2010 at 2:35 PM ^

Don't get me wrong - I would be scared to the point where I might have taken today off of work, but I would be a hell of a lot more pumped for the game. 

This year, with this young, thin defense, we are not ready to take on a national power (ZING ND), so I would view the game as DOOM.  But, in 2 years, we will have more experienced bodies on D and hopefully a senior, 2-time Heisman winning QB under center. 

AeonBlue

September 24th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^

Since 2008, my fear/paranoia level has steadily hung around 9. I feel like a junkie heading into relapse. I quit Lloyd Carr because it felt like the right thing to do but every week I feel like I need another dose. JUST ONE MORE HIT!! My therapist has me working on an exercise where I take deep breaths, count to three, and go to my "Denard!" place. I like it there...

zlionsfan

September 24th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

2010 Alabama offense + 2010 Michigan defense != amazing. There isn't even conclusive evidence that 2010 DENARD! + 2010 Alabama defense = something we could stand to watch. (Hopefully that will arrive during the Big Ten schedule.)

I do like it when Michigan plays a couple of difficult non-conference games, but honestly, with the current system, there is zero incentive for a BCS conference school to play them (at least until the BlogPoll replaces one of the crappy regular ones), and given the currrent strength of the program, I would rather get easier wins and keep the existing coach than set up a top-20 schedule, watch RR go 9-4 against it and get fired because he didn't win 10 games.

jg2112

September 24th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^

A couple other important notes for Bowling Green's rush defense.

Their starting defensive ends weigh 240 and 255.

AND

Two of their linebackers weigh 210 and 205. In case anyone needs to see what a defense would look like with Jordan Kovacs as a LB, BGSU might be a good test case.

Also, BGSU has a dude named BooBoo who plays in the secondary and is their KR.

Captain

September 24th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^

The Falcons tend to have eyes for one guy—last year Freddie Barnes was the nation's leading receiver with a mindboggling 155 catches for 1770 yards.

I think you mean mindbottling.

profitgoblue

September 24th, 2010 at 2:32 PM ^

This is classic!  I think I may be one of those critics' critics' critics' critics.  Not sure though.

Key Matchup:  Obi Ezeh against his many critics, those many critics against critics of the critics, and the original critics' criticism of the criticism of the critics' critics.

Wolverine In Exile

September 24th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^

a purposeful swipe at the 25.5 point line? as in, going back to the glory years of Lloydball where we beat lesser teams, but never covered a ridiculous spread? Gosh I hope so. Or are we expecting the demon presence of Kiffykins to invade RR's body during the final scoring drive and go for two, only to miss?

StraightDave

September 24th, 2010 at 6:16 PM ^

One thing the UM defense is really good at is vaulting an unknown shitty player to the top of the Heisman race (e.g. the Purdue running back turned QB in RRod's first year as coach).  I expect Pankratz to throw for 4 large and 6 TDs on Saturday and be right there with DROB for the Heisman.  Of course,  the defense will be ready after the UMASS game but never say never.

kman23

September 24th, 2010 at 7:24 PM ^

I hope the entire 1st team offense is out at halftime. Lewan starts, Marvin Robinson gets 1st team time at Spur and Kovacs tries dropping into zone.

Tate not Devin comes in for Denard.

Michigan 35 - 10 at halftime

Michigan wins 49-23.

jdog

September 24th, 2010 at 7:40 PM ^

Worry If:  Bryan Wright lines up for the winning field goal for Bowling Green.   What, no mention that Wright is kicking for BG now? Really worry if:  he makes it.