Preview: Arkansas Pine Bluff Comment Count

Tim

The EssentialsRAWR.gif

WHAT #36/31 Michigan v. Arkansas Pine Bluff
WHERE Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 2:00 PM EST

December 5th, 2009
THE LINE No line, junkie
TELEVISION BigTenNetwork.com

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

Michigan

The Wolverines are officially slumping. They have 3 losses in 3 games, at least one of them to inferior competition. The shooting has been bad, the defense has been terrible, and nothing has seemed to go right for the Wolverines.

Last year, they were a much better squad with more space between games, and the hectic travel schedule from the weekend may have given them less time to prepare for Boston College than they would have liked. A pair of off days, both at home, may give the team a little time to recharge the battery, and Pine Bluff isn't exactly Boston College in terms of talent.

DeShawn Sims and the snipers for Michigan really need to get going in this contest, and it might not be too difficult to do. As we'll see in a moment, this is a really bad defensive team.

Arkansas Pine Bluff

The Golden Lions had opened their season with 5 consecutive losses, all of them coming on the road. In fact, they don't play a home game until their 15th contest of the season(!). Colorado and Denver took down Pine Bluff on a road trip through the Centennial State, and the Golden Lions have also fallen in El Paso, Akron, and Tempe.

Guards Savalance Townsend and Terrence Calvin lead Pine Bluff in scoring, and Calvin, a senior point guard, is also the assist leader. 6-8 post man Lebaron Weathers is the key inside presence, tied for third in points per game and leading the Golden Lions in rebounding. Fellow senior Tyree Glass stands 6-7, and gets the third most minutes of any Golden Lion (behind only the two guards).

Tempo-Free Breakdown

It's far enough into the year that tempo-free stats might mean something, so here's the first tempo-free breakdown of the season. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Arkansas Pine Bluff: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Pine Bluff Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. PB Def eFG% 260 337 M
Mich Def eFG% v. PB eFG% 232 254 M
Mich TO% v. PB Def TO% 2 328 MMMM
Mich Def TO% v. PB TO% 41 313 MMM
Mich OReb% v. PB DReb% 242 1 PPP
Mich DReb% v. PB OReb% 326 81 PPP
Mich FTR v. PB Opp FTR 295 342 M
Mich Opp FTR v. PB FTR 10 133 MM
Mich AdjO v. PB AdjD 157 215 M
Mich AdjD v. PB AdjO 111 225 MM

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

So, Pine Bluff is kind of horrible, and they've been horrible against competition that isn't very good itself. The only thing that the Golden Lions are pretty good at is rebounding the ball. This should be highly effective against Michigan, of course, as the Wolverines aren't really known for crashing the boards. Michigan has a huge advantage in nearly every single other category, and if this game is even close, it might be an omen for a long season.

This game may not be the one that gets DeShawn Sims really rolling, as the Golden Lions have multiple players with decent enough size. However, if Michigan chooses to play two big men at once, they'll probably be able to overpower the overmatched Golden Lions. That should open up the three point line, as should the mere fact that the Lions have already given up 30% 3-point shooting to opponents, playing less talented teams than Michigan.

This looks like the type of game that is frustratingly close for a few minutes, before the Wolverines really start to pull away.

Comments

Nothsa

December 4th, 2009 at 7:54 PM ^

No disrespect intended, but if Ark-Pine Bluff is 337th in defensive efficiency there probably aren't a whole lot of defensive rebounds to be had. Barring an ice-cold outing, Michigan is going to score a bunch of points.

That, by the way, is an iconic Fuck-Lion. I'm just saying.