Preview 2016: Offensive Line Comment Count

Brian

Previously: Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends.

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[Bryan Fuller]

Depth Chart

LT Yr. LG Yr. C Yr. RG Yr. RT Yr.
Ben Bredeson Fr. Ben Braden Sr.* Mason Cole Jr. Kyle Kalis Sr.* Erik Magnuson Sr.*
Grant Newsome So. David Dawson Jr.* Patrick Kugler Jr.* Michael Onwenu Fr. Nolan Ulizio Fr.*

Michigan's line took a quantum leap in 2014, going from a flaccid crew of confused gibbons to pleasingly mediocre. Last year's edition of this post positively marveled at the fact that these gentlemen got in the way of the opposition frequently enough to be average-ish:

It got better. It really did. The OL nadir is in the past. We can come out of the bunker and rebuild society now.

That assertion was based both on my charting and a bunch of stats, many of them of the advanced line variety. Advanced line stats make total guesses about assigning credit and blame between tailback and line but they're worth peeking at in case they tell a story. Michigan's 2015 stats are mostly about treading water:

Year Adj Line Yards Opportunity Rate Power Success Stuff Rate Adj Sack Rate
2013 118th 11th 120th 126th 112th
2014 50th 55th 32nd 67th 72nd
2015 53rd 107th 50th 33rd 13th

Michigan was less likely to get tackled for loss and less likely to get the 5+ yard carries that opportunity rate tracks. Those were a wash as Michigan's line yards stayed static. Contrary to your memories of the OSU game, pass protection took a big leap forward.

A certain level of treading water is expected when a new coach with a new, complicated system arrives. With four starters back and Mason Cole moving to his natural position, a step forward is likely. It's just that fifth guy who gives pause…

An Editor's Note About Charts

With four returning starters you're going to see a bunch of charts derived from last year's UFRs. Here's how to read them:

Game Opponent + - TOT Pass - Error Rate Comment
1 Utah 5 8 -3 5 8% Guy did X

Game and opponent are self-explanatory. The +, –, and TOT columns are my evaluations of how the player did when run blocking. Keep in mind that zero is not good, or even average. It is the nature of the beast that any successful run has many successful blocks; many unsuccessful ones are submarined by a single error. We're looking for a 2:1 positive-negative ratio to be decently successful. A future pro might be more like 3:1 or 4:1.

"Pass –" is derived from the protection minuses in UFR.  Two protection minuses are approximately equivalent to one sack or severe hurry. "Error rate" is the number of protection minuses divided by the number of available protection points. The above line is Ben Braden's from the Utah game, in which he was almost 1:2 in run plus/minus and had protection errors on 8% of snaps. That's terrible; the good news is that Braden got better.

TACKLE: JUST A GUY WOULD BE FINE THANKS

RATING: 3.

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present, he said [Brian Fuller]

Senior ERIK MAGNUSON was thrust into the lineup too early as one the umpteen guys tossed into the maelstrom of the 2013 offensive line. He was a guard then; the next year he played some there and, after an injury cost him his job, as a blocking tight end. Last year he got flipped out to tackle.

There he... well, he was there. He was neither forceful nor overrun. He didn't shut down elite pass rushers or get blown through by mediocre ones. His UFR chart from last year is decidedly sparse when compared to Cole's:

Game Opponent + - TOT Pass- Error Rate Comment
1 Utah 2.5   2.5 2 3% Hooray?
2 Oregon State 5 0.5 4.5 0 0% Not as involved as others but got his job done.
3 UNLV 6   6 0 0% Clean positive sweep from the OL.
4 BYU 2.5 3 -0.5 0 0% M clearly left-handed when it wants to rely on tackles.
5 Maryland 4 4 0 2 4% Clear left handed bias again.
6 Northwestern 6.5 1 5.5 4 10% End of game was pretty.
7 MSU 3 2 1 3 7% A little frustrated with his second level blocking.
8 Minnesota 5 1.5 3.5 1 2% Good day for him although M is clearly left-handed.
9 Rutgers 3 4.5 -1.5 0 0% Not real good on perimeter.
10 Indiana 6 4 2 2 2% Did okay.
11 PSU 3   3 4 6% Also took advantage of weak edge.
12 OSU 3 2 1 5 8% See Kalis.
13 Florida 5.5 6.5 -1 1 2% Iffy game.
  TOTALS 55 29 26 24 4% 65% run blocking

It's not so much that Magnuson didn't execute, it's that he wasn't called on to do much. He's right around our run-blocking Mendoza line thanks to some good days against the overmatched bit of the nonconference schedule. 24 pass protection minuses over the course of a season isn't anything to write home about, but Cole's maturation and Magnuson's move to tackle are the top two reasons Michigan's pass blocking got a lot better a year ago. When I started to talk about the OL individually in the middle of last year this was the conclusion:

Magnuson is [just a guy] right now. He's okay at blocking. They don't run to him very much. There are not many plays on which he has a big role and that seems to be about half Cole and half Magnuson. He is the Jarrod Wilson of the offensive line.

He's boring. We appreciate this immensely, because we are well aware of the alternatives to boring after the past half-decade.

It's maybe a little disappointing that Magnuson seems to be topping out at boring. I usually pick out the particularly good or bad plays to embed in these previews; Magnuson doesn't have anything to embed either way. On the ground I had him for zero +2 blocks a year ago and one –2 block. Part of the reason he doesn't have a lot of magnitude in that chart above is that he usually does something completely adequate and not that notable. When he does score a plus it's frequently for excellent awareness. Here he reads a blitz and manages to redirect enough to hit the linebacker who would otherwise be burying Smith in the backfield:

When Magnuson does move a guy it's usually because the guy is already moving. He was good at reading and staying attached on slants in Michigan's zone game; a bunch of cutbacks opened up last year because he was able to shove a guy past his intended destination.

This is a power play but it's the same principle and from a camera angle that makes it very clear:

The other times Magnuson moves a guy is because he's already engaged with Kalis:

Magnuson was effective at doubling a guy and popping out to the second level.

These are all real assets.  They are offset by what I described as a "lack of oomph" after the Indiana game. Magnuson is not likely to get drive in a one-on-one block, and occasionally he ends up looking a bit… finesse.

That play was an outlier but I don't have anything in the way of a one-on-one drive block in an entire season of clips. This is an area he should get incrementally better in since he's got another year of weight training behind him; the time for big leaps forward is likely past.

Not everyone is as indifferent as this space was. CBS NFL draft analyst Dane Brugler called him a "legitimate NFL prospect" and "one of the top ten senior offensive tackles in the country."

...moves with a smooth shuffle and wide base, transferring his weight well in his kickslide to mirror edge rushers. He stays low off the snap and prefers to use his hands to control the point of attack to out-leverage and out-power defenders. Magnuson is able to secure downblocks and anchor at shallow depth, driving his legs to finish in the Wolverines' power offense.

I disagree with this take, but it's out there. NFL.com's Chad Reuter told Mike Spath that Magnuson could work his way into the first or second round with a good 2016; I disagree with that take as well… but it's out there.

Magnuson was relatively advanced mentally a year ago and will benefit less than some of his compatriots from increasing familiarity with the offense. Improvement should be clear but not transformative; a good goal is for Magnuson to move beyond Just A Guy status, get on the All Big Ten team in a very down year for the tackle spot conference-wide, and get drafted late.

[After the JUMP: the biggest question mark on the team. And Jabrill Peppers! (Not really. But maybe!)]

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Newsome has not locked his spot down. [Patrick Barron]

The position battle at left tackle was supposed to be settled. As of a week ago it was not settled:

As of today it is not settled.

This is probably not good. Two years ago this post surveyed what happened when true freshman left tackles were thrust into the starting lineup. It was almost universally ugly. The exception was Laremy Tunsil's first year; that post also mentioned that Alabama was planning on starting freshman Cam Robinson in 2014. That worked out okay for the Tide. Both of those guys were five-stars so highly rated that they were locks despite being OL. Cole was not that highly rated. He survived, but it really was survival for him. It was year two where he started to take off.

No matter how touted the freshman is, in an ideal world the second-year guy fends off the challenge. That gent is GRANT NEWSOME [recruiting profile]. On one hand, Newsome is a touted recruit with left tackle size who Michigan was confident enough in to move Mason Cole to center. On the other hand, Newsome spent most of spring getting worked by not only Taco Charlton but Chase Winovich. The former is understandable; the latter is necessarily worrying. Winovich is getting his share of chatter, but he's also switching back from offense.

Newsome was drafted to be Michigan's sixth OL after Logan Tuley-Tillman's dismissal. In that role he got maybe two dozen snaps over the second half of the season. He only drew mention after Minnesota, his most extensive playing time:

What about Grant Newsome?

He got maybe a dozen snaps. He certainly looks the part, and on that third and one above he buried a defensive end. I think he messed up one power play but he is a freshman.

I may not like burning Newsome's redshirt but at least he's played a meaningful role in a close game here. That's also a good sign for him personally and Michigan's OL next year. They only need to replace one guy; having a prototype left tackle surge through two or three other guys and look good doing it makes it likely he starts next year. 

He got scattered snaps that didn't mean much down the stretch.

In spring he was installed as the starting left tackle, and it was rough. I asserted that he "struggled significantly in pass protection"; Touch The Banner elaborated:

He’s decent as a run blocker, but he gets overextended when he pass sets, does not move his feet well enough, and whiffs too often. He’s plenty athletic and physically looks the part of a Big Ten starter, but his technique still needs a lot of work.

Newsome is rounding into college shape

How about that left tackle/Grant Newsome situation? Can you talk about his development and how vital he is to that O-line?

“Yeah, Kevin Tolbert’s done a nice job with him and his staff in the weight room. He’s really put on a lot of weight. He’s over 300 pounds. Has done a nice job all summer with workouts. You can see the maturity level in his eyes, and has done everything we’ve asked him to do. He’ll be ready to tackle that position.”

…but the fact that Newsome hasn't been able to slam the door on a true freshman yet is a bit concerning. Not necessarily long term—OL take time to develop—but for right now, certainly.

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[Mark Stewart/Journal-Sentinel]

Meanwhile, that freshman: BEN BREDESON [recruiting profile] is as close to a Mason Cole clone as you can get without toying with the laws of God and man. Bredeson is a swing guy capable of playing anywhere across the front. He is not a 6'8" man-moon ideally suited to fend off the Joey Bosas of the world and thus has his highest upside on the interior. He comes to Michigan with a reputation as a super-advanced and very smart player. Stop me if any of this sounds like a certain other OL on the team.

Expectations were already high for Bredeson when BTN rolled into town, and they got higher afterwards. Howard Griffith described him as "elite" after watching him check (or try to check, anyway) Rashan Gary and advocated for his immediate insertion into the starting lineup:

GRIFFITH: Rashan Gary and Ben Bredeson… these two players are elite. Both will be huge contributors to this team, this year.

REVSINE: Would you play Bredeson right away?

GRIFFITH: Oh, absolutely. After what I saw today, absolutely. I love his tenacity, his skillset. He's gonna make some mistakes, no question about it, and if he's playing left tackle you can give him some help when he needs it. He is just so talented. In my mind, as a left tackle, I'd put him out there.

DINARDO: He was clearly one of the best five today.

REVSINE: He went up against Wormley, he did a great job against Wormley.

GRIFFITH: Play him.

DINARDO: Play him!

So there's that. If we are skeptical of BTN's tendency to pump everyone and everything, Bredeson has also been repeatedly praised by insiders. Webb related that Bredeson has "star qualities" and quoted a source who said he was "more physically ready" than most freshman OL; Lorenz had multiple posts to similar effect. One source called Bredeson the "total package," "ahead of schedule," and that people would "NOT be surprised" to see him play.

If Bredeson does end up starting, Mason Cole's freshman year is a potential comparable. Cole survived, more or less, and Michigan's line was decent. The 2014 numbers that led off this post are decidedly middling, and that was a big step forward from 2013. Cole wasn't a huge drag. Meanwhile Bredeson (#39 on the 247 composite) is much closer to the insta-start five stars like Tunsil and Robinson than Cole (#127) was.

Bredeson's recruiting profile is littered with assertions that he's ahead of the curve. While we're skeptical of assertions like that after Kyle Kalis took a long time to get on the field, Bredeson's surge up the depth chart lends them a level of credibility. Here's one from Son of a Coach:

He’s very technically sound at this point in his development as a run blocker. He plays with good pad level and drives his feet on contact. His hand placement is good the majority of the time and he works to finish. … effort to sustain blocks is something that really stands out about his game.  … violent pop at the point of attack. … He moves well to get to the second level. Really does a great job engaging and driving linebackers.

24/7's Clint Brewster:

…has the footwork and hand technique of a college level offensive lineman. He keeps his hips down and his elbows inside to create power behind his hand-punch and really strikes people. He does a great job with leverage and using his body strength to overpower people.

If he can pick it up mentally he should be freshman Cole or even moderately better. That's still iffy, but the bottom here isn't the worst.

A recent report from Sam held that Bredeson was working at left guard. This implies an injury issue with Ben Braden—UMBig11 mentioned on the 247 board that he underwent an MRI but had returned to practice—and that Bredeson is the first option wherever Michigan needs a fill-in, except center.

BACKUPS

With Logan Tuley-Tillman bombing out of the program, depth on the outside is minimal. Whichever left tackle contender loses out will be the top backup. If Michigan does need to go further down the rabbit hole MASON COLE remains an option; there he was generally capable when not overwhelmed by top-flight pass rushers. He would be a B or B+ player. It's not ideal.

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Ulizio is #70 [Upchurch]

Redshirt freshman NOLAN ULIZIO [recruiting profile] is the only other tackle on the roster with even a slim shot at playing time. Michigan flipped him from a UConn commit during the four-week scramble that followed Harbaugh's necessarily late hire, and while his recruiting reputation is in line with what "UConn commit" implies he's generated some chatter. Lorenz:

Two players to truly keep an eye on going forward outside of the trio of true freshmen signees are redshirt freshmen Nolan Ulizio and Jon Runyan Jr. We've talked a little about Ulizio, who had a strong spring game and is someone quarterback Wilton Speight mentioned specifically after that game as someone who stood out.

Per most of the recruiting sites Ulizio improved a great deal as a senior. Guys like that can be undervalued. Meanwhile his coach makes him sound like a Harbaugh kind of guy inside his brain:

"The great part about Nolan is he's a very physical, aggressive player. He plays with a nasty attitude and enjoys being an offensive lineman. … He plays with a chip on his shoulder, he plays to the whistle, and he finishes really really well. Secondly, I think Nolan does a great job of conceptualizing what you're trying to do offensively. He can think on his feet, with the defense a moving object that he reacts to quickly."

Intelligence is the most likely thing for a recruiting service to overlook and critical for OL. So, yeah, there's a chance.

Things are less sunny for JUWANN BUSHELL-BEATTY [recruiting profile]. He hasn't created much, if any, buzz since his arrival in Ann Arbor. He's played guard on and off despite his 6'7" frame; like Ben Braden's move inside that implies Michigan is uncomfortable with him in pass protection on the edge. With younger guys getting more attention it seems unlikely JBB will push through, whether it's this year or the future. Magnuson said that he was "making a push" at left tackle, for what it's worth. Bredeson's emergence rather supersedes one tossed-off press conference quote.

INTERIOR LINE: IT GOT BETTER, BUT NOT EXACTLY GOOD

Rating: 3.5.

It started ominously. Very, very ominously.

Matched up against yet another Lolutelei in the opener, Michigan's guards were hurled bodily into the backfield more than once.

 

In the aftermath both starting guards came in for huge negatives in UFRs. Klaxons were sounded; children were evacuated; bomb shelters filled with the living and the dead.

And then it was fine. Mostly fine. Decidedly okay with occasional outbreaks where Braden gets fooled on the same pass rush stunt three consecutive times or Kalis runs by a guy wearing a big flashing BLOCK ME sign. It was by no means great, or even good. Neither was it that.

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leaning [Upchurch]

To my eyes BEN BRADEN improved more than his compatriot on the right side of the line. He had a path to faster improvement because he was moved to guard after starting at right tackle as a sophomore; Kalis was is and will be a guard for ever and ever amen. Some of Braden's issues were due to unfamiliarity with the position—he occasionally fired out like he was still at tackle and was supposed to get a kickout block—and those got ironed out. Braden's UFR chart has a couple of wild swings early and then settles into a competent, if uninspiring, groove:

Game Opponent + - TOT Pass- Error Rate Comment
1 Utah 5 8 -3 5 8% Did okay when not being repeatedly destroyed?
2 Oregon State 15 0.5 14.5 0 0% I get why Spielman was on Team Starts For OSU now.
3 UNLV 7.5 1.5 6 0 0% Lack of negs in back to back weeks heartening.
4 BYU 5.5 5 0.5 1 2% Back to reality against strong DE, but reality still OK.
5 Maryland 8 7 1 2 4% Recovered from some bad targets well. Rarely beat physically in this game.
6 Northwestern 9.5 6 3.5 0 0% One game away from erasing most preseason fears.
7 MSU 5 4 1 3 7% I will take that.
8 Minnesota 7 3 4 0 0% Solid outing.
9 Rutgers 10.5 3 7.5 0 0% Hard to believe this is the same guy from the Utah game.
10 Indiana 6 5 1 8 8% Lunged a couple times.
11 PSU 4.5 1 3.5 2 3% Solid outing against tough customers.
12 OSU 4.5 8 -3.5 0 0% Two huge and unfortunate whiffs on screens that had numbers advantages.
13 Florida 9 4.5 4.5 0 0% Maybe Adam's draftageddon pick wasn't totally bonkers.
  TOTALS 97 56.5 40.5 21 3% 63% on run blocks.

Aside from a weird thing against Indiana where the same stunt got him over and over again and two screens he got blown up against OSU, Braden was decent. Fine. All right. Like Magnuson he approached the 2:1 ratio thanks to some big numbers against bad nonconference opponents. Like Magnuson he had a little over 20 protection minuses. While he was worse than Magnuson—tackle is more difficult in pass protection—he started from so far back that his season feels like a win in a way that Magnuson's does not.

Because hoo boy it was hairy early, notwithstanding terrible Oregon State and UNLV opposition. Braden came in for big negative numbers over and over again. He's always fought a tendency to bend over that causes him to stumble past his man once that guy gets a shed attempt in, and early in the year that problem came back with a vengeance:

That was a flashback to his play early in 2014; Braden got better gradually then and rather faster in 2015. By BYU, Braden had come a long way:

That's a lot of swing for Braden

Yes. He's not falling over much any more, or falling off blocks much. That is real progress. I guess it's good that a lot of his minuses (6, in fact) game on three separate plays where he blocked the wrong guy instead of plays where the guy he was taking on blew him up. I mean, right? …

When not biffing mentally he was pretty good. Pretty good at what's probably lousy competition, yes. Northwestern is going to be an interesting test.

There he stayed, give or take a biff. Part of the early struggles were an offense-wide phenomenon that Braden was an enthusiastic participant in: nobody really knew what they were doing when they ran power. This was a typical example from the Utah game; two guys club a Ute DL out of a gap and Braden blindly runs directly into this very dude:

Braden got better at this kind of thing quickly—in fact in the same game he was feeling his way through the line to take on a defender—and by midseason he'd gone from a potential season-sinking flop to a generally functional guard. BYU was the last time Braden was clucked at for a slew of mental errors; By Rutgers he was "night and day from Utah" and I asserted he'd "improved drastically":

I haven't seen him fall off a guy because he's leaning too hard in a long time, and he has a good grasp of the mental side of things. He is not as powerful as Kalis but he makes fewer mistakes.

This block against Indiana was an excellent example of Braden's burgeoning ability to adjust to the ever-shifting environment in front of his face:

By midseason Braden was regularly coming in for +1 thanks to plays like that.

After the Citrus Bowl I noted that he "generally latched on and got a bit of movement" and had "cut down on the lunging" to become "consistently decent." It's difficult to envision the Braden of a year or two ago hanging on to this block:

Tim Drevno did his best work last year with Braden. Now he is fine.

Like Magnuson, it's difficult to see Braden bust out in his final rodeo. He's still super tall and liable to bend over; he's clunky in space; he's a tackle-shaped guy playing guard. Better, yes. Radically so, no. He might get an All Big Ten nod or two because a multi-year starter on a good team is always going draw votes; getting drafted is unlikely. I'd settle for someone 10% better than last year's version.

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Just hanging on [Patrick Barron]

Michigan's other guard, KYLE KALIS, has a been a source of frustration ever since he was badly overrated as a recruit. Michigan's inability to settle on a thing has hurt him more than anyone else, as it prevents him from turning his considerable physical assets into production. He was a mistake factory a year ago. Everyone was to an extent; Kalis was more so. The play that lingers in memory was the time he chose to block Mason Cole's butt:

The only other football player who has regarded an offensive lineman's butt to be an imminent threat is Mark Sanchez, and he has a much better reason.

While the rest of the line was far from immune from similar pratfalls, Kalis's problems persisted longer and were more frequent. As the the team took a clear step forward in the bowl game, Kalis was still blowing by guys he needs to block in Michigan's zone game:

There are alignments in which blowing by that dude is correct because the guy behind you can help out. That's obviously not one of them. At the very least you need to chip him and I'm about 90% sure that Kalis and Magnuson need to combo through a guy that's lined up on Kalis's outside shoulder. Unfortunately this was not an isolated occurrence.

Three big errors in that vein stood out amongst an offensive performance that was otherwise much more crisp than the rest of the year. Kalis's chart is a step behind the decidedly average output of Magnuson and Braden.

Game Opponent + - TOT Pass - Error Rate Comment
1 Utah 5 8 -3 3 5% Very disappointing.
2 Oregon State 8 1 7 0 0% Much better.
3 UNLV 6.5 2.5 4 0 0% Harbaugh said he was M's best lineman, FWIW.
4 BYU 7 8.5 -1.5 2 5% Had some meh pulls.
5 Maryland 4.5 2.5 2 3 6% Reasonable day.
6 Northwestern 10 4 6 0 0% Started slow, came on strong.
7 MSU 4 2 2 4 9% Scraping along.
8 Minnesota 4 7.5 -3.5 1 2% Ran by guys he should block twice; inconsistent downfield
9 Rutgers 9 9 0 2 5% Couple of big negative plays; physically dominant when not making big errors.
10 Indiana 4.5 6.5 -2 3 3% Penalty as well; ran by guys.
11 PSU 4.5 1 3.5 3 5% See Braden.
12 OSU 1.5 2 -0.5 6 10% Numbers so low as M avoided the right side.
13 Florida 8.5 8 0.5 4 6% Mental issues persisted.
  TOTALS 77 62.5 14.5 31 5% 55% run blocking

More pass protection minuses and a big gap in run productivity—and it is a big gap given the way I grade. While I thought the Rivals "Inside The Fort" that asserted Michigan might straight-up cut Kalis was extremely dubious, there is a bit of information in there no matter how distorted by a game of telephone it may be: he lagged his teammates in the coaches' eyes. Mine too.

I think Kalis might have some information processing issues compared to the other guys on the line. A particular blitz that Florida got home in the bowl game provided a platform for an explanation:

The Houma WHOOP on Brantley was needed because Glasgow was forced to pick up a blitzing LB. Presnap he seems to point this out to Kalis, who ends up blocking a guy moving to a different gap:

Florida's in a 3-4 and both DEs are lined up super tight. When the LB walks down it seems like Glasgow realizes the purpose of the unusual formation is to get the NT or LB in free; he interprets the data and wants to make a change. Kalis just sees the guy over him and decides to block him. On the stretch he saw a guy outside of him and decides to leave him. The subtleties escape him. Four years into a five-year career I'm not super hopeful the light goes on.

These previews started to come together soon after I wrote that, and once I was looking for it I found additional examples of Kalis not grasping the ways the defense was trying to screw with him. This mild complaint after the Maryland game is also in the same genre:

Kalis got a knock here because he never checked his six and that DL chasing the play made the tackle. Last week I mentioned that I liked Glasgow's awareness when he ends up in space; Kalis didn't have that awareness here.

This kind of thing is why Kalis racks up a bunch of big negative numbers. He was far, far more likely than anyone else on the line to get a –2 or –3, and also more likely than anyone else to grind a guy's face off for a plus one. He is the opposite of Erik Magnuson.

Unlike Magnuson and Braden, Kalis has plenty of upside left. He was the one guy on the line last year who flashed the ability to blow guys up. His pulls occasionally saw a linebacker stagger backwards as he took unexpected force.

Nobody else on the line put a DL on his butt yards downfield a year ago:

Nobody else on the line was able to get serious motion on a one-on-one downblock:

If the dude just puts it together the five star is lurking somewhere down inside. Reaching that upside looks like a faint possibility indeed at this point.

Nonetheless, Kalis is Michigan's most important offensive lineman outside of the contenders at left tackle. Braden and Magnuson are what they are and will get a bit better, the end. There's a tiny bit more uncertainty with Cole but I'd be surprised if he's not terrific. Kalis could continue to lag the field; he could catch up to Braden and Magnuson; he could pass them. (Cole is out of reach without rolling a double critical hit.)

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Cole in spaaaaaaace [Bryan Fuller]

Finally, MASON COLE. The one sure thing. As soon as Newsome burned his redshirt it was all but certain that Cole would move to center. He had the polish and intelligence to survive as a true freshman left tackle, so he should be well suited to making line calls. His run blocking surged forward last year—PFF ranked him the #16 run-blocking tackle in the country and his UFR chart is on another level from the other returners:

Game Opponent + - TOT Pass- Error Rate Comment
1 Utah 3.5 6 -2.5 1 2% Edge whiffs hurt badly.
2 Oregon State 13.5 3.5 10 0 0% Much better in space.
3 UNLV 7 3.5 4.5 0 0% Clip the main issue.
4 BYU 11 2.5 8.5 1 2% Moving guys. Not like Lewan did, but consistently.
5 Maryland 7 0.5 6.5 5 10% Took some hits in pass pro though.
6 Northwestern 9.5 2.5 7 3 8% PFF's number 2 run blocking OT. I see it.
7 MSU 4 2.5 1.5 0 0% Not a lot got to him downfield.
8 Minnesota 10.5 1 9.5 0 0% Killing it on outside runs. Sealed the world.
9 Rutgers 7 1.5 5.5 0 0% The usual.
10 Indiana 6 2 4 3 3% About to get ugly.
11 PSU 8 1 7 2 3% PSU especially weak on edges w/out Nassib.
12 OSU 5 1.5 3.5 8 14% Michigan tried to avoid piling up numbers on the OL.
13 Florida 17.5 6 11.5 0 0% Really really good in space.
  TOTALS 109.5 34 76.5 23 3% 76% run blocking

That is a big, big number for run blocking. Get five guys operating at that level and your ground game will thump the opposition. Note also the sheer magnitude of the numbers. Erik Magnuson played exactly as much as Cole did on the other side of the line and only had half as many blocks that caught my attention enough to grade. Michigan knew what they had in Cole and game-planned accordingly. 

Cole was particularly good at the stuff that centers have to do more than anyone else. Per PFF he "excelled" at "pulling out into space as well as working to the second level," and that's something that jumped out in UFR last year. This ability to chip a guy and then go harass a linebacker is a core part of a good C's skillset:

This was a skill he demonstrated over and over again. He was agile enough to get into guys and cut them; he almost never missed an opportunity to mash a second level blocker. He was good at the point of attack. He was great in space.

While opportunities to see Cole execute the reach blocks that devastate opposition gap integrity in the stretch game were rare, when he was called up on to do so he showed an excellent ability to engage and step around his prey:

With his agility, tenacity, and intelligence he should be a plus player when Michigan busts out outside zone. I'd even go so far as to suggest that will be a more common changeup this year.

He wasn't perfect, especially early, but by midseason I was lumping Cole in with future third-round pick Graham Glasgow as the Michigan linemen a cut above the rest:

We haven't really talked about the OL in any specific way this year. Can we maybe get some takes on those guys?

Cole and Glasgow are very similar. They're Michigan's best second level blockers. They're consistent with their assignments. They remember to keep stepping around guys when they are tasked with sealing someone away from the play. They are good pass protectors but not great; neither is a physical marvel but they are both solid, consistent technicians. …. [Cole] is by far Michigan's most consistent second-level blocker because he can redirect to match most linebackers even when they go off script and decide to go upfield of him. I am rarely if ever irritated by an assignment they messed up.

As the numbers show, this was true over the whole season.

Meanwhile Cole is not an ideal left tackle. While he was more than capable against average players he got taken to the woodshed by the top level guys, with five protection minuses against Maryland's Yannick Ngakoue…

… and eight against OSU's Joey Bosa. (PSU's Carl Nassib missed the Michigan game.) PFF had him negative overall as a pass blocker and blamed him for nine sacks and 16 hits. While those numbers seem high to me, the overall point stands: Cole is at a clear disadvantage against top-shelf rushers. Double digit error rates are just not sustainable from your left tackle, and it looked and felt like there was no way for Cole to fix that. His pass protection is to the best of his ability.

At center these concerns are mitigated or dropped entirely. A guy who redirects abruptly isn't a threat for Cole to mirror but a stunt or slant for him to pass off. If he can pick up the stunts and make the protection calls he'll be a plus pass protector, and all indicators are he will be able to do that without problems.

Cole should be an All Big Ten center and worthy of a nod for Rimington finalist. He might not get it because it's his first season at the spot and there are plenty of good candidates nationwide; he should be good enough that nobody would bat an eye if he does.

BACKUPS

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[Upchurch/Fuller]

Redshirt juniors DAVID DAWSON [recruiting profile] and PATRICK KUGLER [recruiting profile] are the last men standing from Michigan's would-be 2013 OL bumper crop, and neither has seen the field except in garbage time. At this point Kugler is a cautionary tale for any OL (outside five-star types) deemed to be a sure thing. Despite being the son of the one-time Steelers' OL coach, the brother of a successful multi-year OL starter at Purdue, and arriving as a consensus high four-star he has struggled not only to see the field but even generate positive buzz.

Injury is part of the reason. Kugler missed chunks of time last year with reported shoulder issues. Some insiders have cited an inability to stay healthy as a major reason Kugler hasn't been on the radar despite a clear need at center. Lorenz reports he would "be a very capable player" if called upon.

Meanwhile, Dawson hasn't made a move despite playing behind a couple of guys who have performed erratically at best over the past couple years. Michigan's six OL lineups have featured Logan Tuley-Tillman and Grant Newsome, not Dawson. There are a couple indicators that Dawson might be pushing through. With Kalis sidelined early in camp with an injury, Dawson drew into the starting lineup. And in a media availability around that time, Magnuson said he'd turned a corner:

Talk is talk; it's better than nothing. Also here is Dawson at left guard adjusting to a blitz late in the BYU game:

That's not bad. With Bredeson's emergence it'll take at least two injuries for either of these guys to get called upon. Most likely they'll go into 2017 as fifth year seniors who may or may not be starter quality.

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[Bill Rapai]

Freshman MICHAEL ONWENU [recruiting profile] is probably a year or two away from contributing but once he drops some weight—or a lot of it—and polishes up his technique he is a uniquely appealing prospect for Harbaugh's mauling offense. Onwenu's listed at 350 on the roster but per Glasgow he's actually 375. For anyone other than Onwenu that would be a major red flag; in this case that's par for the XXXXXL course. Bryan Mone:

"He's playing both ways, actually. He's a big boy! Man, he's really quick for being 385. He has a fast first two steps. Just imagine -- if you dropped him down to 350, that would be scary."

Onwenu established himself a national recruit at around 370, and he carries that weight like a neutron star ballerina. At the Army game 247's Steve Wiltfong said Onwenu was "the strongest offensive lineman on the field and he was also perhaps the quickest"; Rivals's Mike Farrell praised his "amazing feet" at his considerable size. Glasgow:

"I think that's heaviest on the team by about 50 lbs. That's a pretty wide margin on a college football team. He moves extremely well for a guy who's the biggest guy on our team. It's pretty impressive. Big Mike is just a massive dude who moves really well."

As Mone mentioned, Michigan has been playing Onwenu on both sides of the ball as they try to figure out where he's best and where the biggest need is. That conversation will probably go on through next year's spring practice. A redshirt should still be in order since there's no need on the DL and he's not creating play-me-now buzz like Bredeson on the OL. He'll be a hot name going in to 2017.

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Runyan, Spanellis, Vastardis [Fuller/Maxpreps/Twitter]

Redshirt freshman JON RUNYAN JR [recruiting profile] came in at 275 after being a 250-pound high school kid; the roster now has him at an eminently plausible 304. Runyan has featured in the odd bit of insider buzz as a guy with a future, that probably at center. The bloodline agrees. Even so that future is probably a couple years further down the road.

Freshman STEPHEN SPANELLIS [recruiting profile] will be an interesting guy to track since his sudden flip from Virginia happened in the immediate aftermath of Erik Swenson's controversial forced decommit. Michigan straight-up dumped Swenson for Spanellis despite their need for tackles—Spanellis is almost certainly a guard—and this says something about both guys. He's a lock to redshirt.

Finally, walk-on ANDREW VASTARDIS will be one to keep an eye on. Michigan flipped him from a I-AA Old Dominion commit near Signing Day, and at 6'4", 310 he certainly has the size. Per Steve Lorenz he was one of the walk-ons the coaches were particularly excited about; got a Northwestern offer late. 

Comments

turtleboy

August 30th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^

You're doing it wrong. It's already been talked about today, so you gotta ask him tomorrow, then he'll give his hot take on Thursday, to which you respond on Friday via Twitter. This way the story that needs to go away never dies.

Rickett88

August 30th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

This is flattering and all, but some of us have actual work to do. 

You keep putting up content to read, and who am I to refuse the content. 

And by the way, what am I gonna do the next few days when I have "work" to do?

reshp1

August 30th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

Assuming the battle was close between him and Newsome for LT, with more spots opening up it makes more sense for both of them to be at their more natural positions. The only reason he's competing for LT this year is because the other spots are locked up. If Braden is out for a game or two, Bredeson may slide in this year at LG for a bit even. 

Blue Balls Afire

August 30th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^

I love the recurring theme in all of these position previews--players got better under Harbaugh and improved as the year went on.  We knew it would, but it actually happened before our very eyes.  It was awesome to see.

reshp1

August 30th, 2016 at 5:19 PM ^

Can someone elaborate on what happened to Kugler? His career has been a bit of a mystery to me. He looked reasonably decent in spring games and during garbage time. Yet he's never played in serious situations (Dawson was first off bench last year, Newsome was 6th OL) and now insider buzz says he's been injured but I can't recall any time where he was conspicuously missing for any length of time. 

Rabbit21

August 30th, 2016 at 6:08 PM ^

Hamilton was a surprise. Swenson was planned but the timing of the Swenson decommit and the Spanellis commitment along with a marked difference in their film certainly led to the impression Swenson got pushed off so the could on board Spanellis, I don't think the staff was happy about Hamilton decommitting.



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Alumnus93

August 30th, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

Interesting fact that last year's team OL may have upwards of six NFL players on it.. Glasgow, Cole, mags, kalis, braden and another

Reader71

August 30th, 2016 at 7:01 PM ^

If we get the production of Cole and 4 Magnusons, we can win every damn game. Just stop making mistakes. After the last few years, that's all I want.

dragonchild

August 30th, 2016 at 8:15 PM ^

Being called "boring" by Brian is, despite what it sounds, the highest compliment any player can earn short of being a game-breaking playmaker.  It's not damning with faint praise or even mere faint praise; it's a genuine endorsement of the player (with limited upside) as a starter.  It means you've earned his trust.  So yeah, if we even had five Eric Magnusons, that's a real line.  Not a great one, but one you wouldn't lose sleep over as a fan, or even a coach.  That's fine.

I want Kalis and Newsome to be boring.  With the boringness from Magnuson and now possibly Braden, that'd be awesome.  My fear is that he won't even get there.  Hopefully, Year 2 Anno Drevno uber alles but we'll just have to see.

dragonchild

August 31st, 2016 at 8:47 AM ^

Again, highest compliment for players with limited upside.  Not so much for All-Americans, who are never boring.  But you can be a "boring" RB in a good way.  A guy who follows his blocking and hits the holes for 4-5ypc is much preferable to someone with dynamic playmaking ability but spends half the time ending drives by charging into trash or fumbling.  Drew Dileo was a "boring" receiver; if he was exciting it's because offense is expected to move the ball and him doing his job involved converting third downs so the result is exciting, even if the play was a 7-yard option route on a linebacker.  He tended to get shut down by elite pass defenses.

You'd take an All-American over a "boring" guy any day, but if your athletic ability just isn't to that level then "boring" is the best you can be.  It means you do your job without screwing up, every down.  And for O-line, that's much more important than playmaking ability.  If you have a guy like Molk who can reach block a jackrabbit then sure you can do fun things, but before you get to that point you want five guys who just don't screw up regularly because five meh blocks per play will move the chains whereas four pancakes and a whiff is a TFL.

Danwillhor

August 30th, 2016 at 7:49 PM ^

and it may be but it's still going to be an average "not up to Michigan standards" OL. We'll still be a mediocre running team out of power, etc. That won't change until the talent changes.

Danwillhor

August 30th, 2016 at 11:12 PM ^

and is all we an rationally expect from guys we know. They are who they are and there definitely isn't a bunch of world beaters hiding in there lol. I've been incredibly low on Kalis the last 3 years so I'd love to see some semblance of the guy he was supposed to already be out of HS. I think the most drastic change we can hope to see is Kalis finally beasting out on his blocks, not blocking air or his own HB (lol). I doubt it happens but the rest are who they are and they make an average OL.

MichiganTeacher

August 30th, 2016 at 8:24 PM ^

LOL double critical. What edition is Brian playing, 3.yourmom'sbasement?

/s actually I support any and all gaming-related content, especially trpgs

Humen

August 30th, 2016 at 9:07 PM ^

The only thing that surprised me in all this was Onwenu definitely red shirting. Because I think he'll play next year (and if Harbaugh does too, I'm right), I think he'll get the Newsome non-RS treatment



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Chaz_Smash

August 31st, 2016 at 12:20 AM ^

Interesting story with good info.

I'm hopping on the Ulizio train. My theory is most 5-star recruits are guys who were fully grown by 10th grade. There are successful programs based on getting the late bloomers. Hopefully, Ulizio is one of those.

CorkyCole

August 31st, 2016 at 1:29 AM ^

FINALLY got through this, so that means I'm all caught up right? Hopefully? If there's one good thing about taking your wife to the ER due to excessive vomiting while pregnant, it's that it allows you to catch up on Mgoblog's season previews. Thanks for the time killer! Pumped for the season.

WestQuad

August 31st, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^

I always thought Left Tackle (the blind side) was the most important position on the line.  Why is it with Bredeson and Cole they are o.k. to throw in there at left tackle when they are young and then move to the interior when they have matured?   Don't you put your best biggest guy at LT?  Jake Long, Taylor Lewan, Jumbo Elliot*, etc.

 

 

*I think they were all left tackles.

Richard75

September 2nd, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^

LT is the most important spot in the NFL because of all the passing and because there's a higher floor of competency across the OL. In college it's more of a tossup. If your guards are lost, it doesn't matter who's at tackle, as U-M learned the hard way in 2013.

Ideally, your longer guys do play tackle. Cole began out there because (unfortunately) we had no options. Size-wise, he should be inside.



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MaizeAndBlueWahoo

August 31st, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^

So, nitpick just because this is the Internet: If a 2:1 run-block ratio is "decently successful," then that's not really the Mendoza line.  The original Mendoza Line is a batting average of .200, referring to something above which might still be pretty bad yet acceptable, but below which is unacceptably shitty.  A Mendoza line for run-block UFR's might be around 1:1.