"Tonight we were reminded that Michigan is five years further down the road. Which means we have a long road ahead. The State Farm Center renovations start in a few hours and will run for three years. Let’s hope that when they’re complete, we’re Michigan."
The existential crisis that was last year's secondary has been the subject of emo rehash and frequently-updated "Never Forget" banners in this space for going on a year now. In mid-August of 2010, Troy Woolfolk did something strange and painful to his ankle and I—and I assume a good chunk of the Michigan fanbase—decided ankle-exploding time was drankin' time. Twitter archived the results; read from the bottom.
The headache I had the next morning did not subside until Greg Mattison was hired.
Woolfolk wasn't going to cure last year's secondary issues by himself but he was going to be a decent returning starter in a secondary without any other than Jordan Kovacs. Without him this section of last year's preview started "What's the point of anything?" because everyone left was either a freshman, walk-on, or JT Floyd.
After a deceptively promising start courtesy of the vast incompetence of Zack Frazer and Notre Dame's backup quarterbacks, the doom took hold. Everyone who saw a snap last year contributed to it but if we have to pick a single moment that best represents Michigan's 2010 secondary it would have to be this:
JT Floyd picking up a –3 against Penn State
That is how Matt McGloin tears you up for 41 points on nine drives. Let's never speak of this again.
While this year's secondary won't bring back memories of Charles Woodson, improvement is almost a given. It could be vast, even. Every contributor returns save James Rogers. Woolfolk is back and healthy, and there's a small horde of freshmen.
If you believe the message board chatter about Tony Gibson's coaching acumen, Curt Mallory is a huge upgrade. My favorite apocryphal story is that when Scot Shafer resigned he told Rodriguez he would take all the blame publicly if Rodriguez admitted to Shafer that Gibson was "the worst secondary coach in the country." Shortly after his resignation, Shafer did pop up in the News stating it was all his fault. Poppycock? Probably, but you can't rule it out.
Things are looking up. They could be okay. Not okay for Michigan, but okay for a mediocre Big Ten defense. They've got a cap—like everywhere on this attrition-wracked team the depth is a little scary. The starters still include a walk-on and the talent level as measured by stars is strictly second-rate. They haven't disproved that on the field, so expectations should be kept in check.
Unless something very depressing happens in the near future I will not need any power tools this year. Troy Woolfolk is healthy, and while he's probably not going to be All Big Ten he's fast and steady enough to get good reviews a couple of years ago when he split time between safety and corner. There is empirical evidence for this, and how: Woolfolk's absence from the safety spot marked the point the 2009 defense went off a cliff. Michigan went from giving up 23 points per game with Woolfolk at safety to 37 without.
Those reviews have moved from potentially ignorant bloggers to the head coach. Woolfolk was one of three defensive Wolverines to be named a starter by Hoke weeks before the season (Kovacs and Martin were the others) and is conspicuously first when Hoke talks about his corners:
"(Woolfolk is) is a guy who I think, as a senior, has taken some ownership and he's done everything," Michigan coach Brady Hoke. "J.T. is fighting. Courtney Avery is fighting, Terrence Talbott, they're all fighting with each other to see who's going to be the guy."
What are your impressions of Troy Woolfolk? "I'm really, really impressed with a senior -- with a new staff, with a new system -- with a guy that comes out every day and says 'I'm going to do what you tell me to do, I'm going to do it how you tell me to do it, and I'm going to try as hard as I can to do it.' ... I think his technique is improving."
That bit at the end about his improving technique is a little ominous. Woolfolk's injury and position switches may leave him vulnerable to Morgan Trent-like deficiencies. The two are similar players: very fast, rangy corners who are tough to beat on a fade but can struggle when opponents are changing direction rapidly. Woolfolk's main advantage over Trent is want-to. Trent spent his senior year raging against the new regime and saw his play suffer. Woolfolk should have no such issues.
Assuming he's healthy, another year to learn the position and get bigger should see him improve on his previous form. There is a nonzero chance his earlier performances were not representative of his ability, but the smart money is on Woolfolk being at least average. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him go at the tail end of next year's NFL draft.
Opposite Woolfolk the battle is on between sophomore Courtney Avery and redshirt juniorJT Floyd. The bet here is that Avery wins that battle. Avery drew into the starting lineup last year when Floyd exited with yet another injury and seemed to outplay the guy he was replacing.
What he brings to the table is still up in the air. He was seeing spot duty relieving Floyd and Rogers even before Floyd's injury; he also split time with Terry Talbott when Michigan went to nickel and dime packages. In that role he was erratic. He wasn't good, per se. But in the tire fire that was last year's secondary he showed a little spark. This spark allowed other portions of the tire fire to spew ever more pitch black tar smoke into the observers face, yes. The spark remained.
Here's an erratic UFR that might not mean that much because he's a corner and his playing time was highly variable:
Zone vacancy II.
Didn't register. Yay?
The whiff, the zone vacation, etc.
DNP, I think.
Two key tackles.
Gave up the big screen.
Could have been harsher on him.
It's not great, though a big chunk of his Indiana negative might have been erroneously given. The blogosphere ferociously debated whether a particular frustrating Iowa touchdown was mostly on the head of Kenny Demens or Avery and eventually decided it was kind of both but maybe probably mostly Demens. The UFR still registers Avery as the victim.
Given the circumstances—tire fire—he did well to not get hammered on a consistent basis. Try to judge him as a freshman by comparing him to his classmates: the highly-touted Cullen Christian was a blinking "throw at me" sign whenever he was on the field. Terrance Talbott was clearly behind. His main issue was playing zone coverage too aggressively, vacating his zone as he chased receivers across the field.
His quickness and aggressiveness bodes well. This is just Bowling Green (see also: the brief blip of Ray Vinopal hope) but Michigan hasn't had a corner who's able to recover like this in a while:
Avery's two years younger than Floyd and was healthy through the entirety of last year and spring practice. He played quarterback in high school; nagging injuries scuppered plans to play him both ways as a senior. He was just learning the rudiments of playing corner when he was thrust onto the field last year. Even if Avery and Floyd were close a year ago—something that is generous to Floyd—Avery should improve much faster than his competition. Avery has never seemed to "transparently lack the speed to be a Big Ten cornerback."
With practice buzz generally talking up Avery, it would be a surprise if he was not the starter. If not now, then by the Big Ten season. He should make a big leap forward in year two.
The primary backup and presumed nickel/dimeback will be the loser of the Avery/Floyd battle. This preview presumes that will be JT Floyd. Our last glimpses of him were against Penn State, when he turned in the coverage-type substance at the top of this post and a few other howlers. Here's one:
The game before that, it was Floyd who gave up slant after slant on critical third downs against Iowa. Even before that this blog declared his coverage "only brushes up against adequate."
JT Floyd: UFR '10
Oh my god the slants.
Awful, awful, awful.
Floyd was so overmatched as a redshirt freshman that Rodriguez and Robinson pulled him off the field, moved Woolfolk from his duties as a fairly effective free safety, and inserted Mike Williams to disastrous effect. Yeah, that could be another symptom of the insanity that ruled decision-making on the D these last few years. But unlike Kenny Demens's debut, Floyd's return to the field didn't make anyone think his removal was a mistake.
As you can see at right, Floyd started off well enough against the incompetent quarterbacks of the nonconference schedule. A number of whiffed tackles and Mouton-like angles against UMass were cause for concern. That concern bloomed, then metastasized in the Big Ten schedule.
First he was amongst the many Wolverines who were too confused or too slow to keep those four-yard Indiana routes from becoming eight. While he wasn't a major factor in the Michigan State game, he imploded against Iowa and Penn State.
In context it seems like his relatively benign Michigan State game was because the Spartans had even easier prey elsewhere on the field. And maybe Michigan protected him in favor of that prey. Remember the sinfully easy 41-yard touchdown Cullen Christian yielded? Yeah:
Why the hell is Cullen Christian the guy in man coverage on a receiver running a fly route? Why isn't it Floyd? Christian(-3, cover –3, RPS -2) is smoked crispy as he bites on an out and up gives up the touchdown. Roh was about to hit Cousins but no matter.
After that it was the elevator straight down and the injury. If he gets a lot better this year it's time to take the Gibson chatter seriously.
If there are injuries, options past the top three are dicey. With Floyd and Woolfolk held out of spring practice the starting cornerbacks were Avery and Tony Anderson, who's one of many walk-ons threatening for playing time. Anderson played ahead of Cullen Christian and Terrance Talbott; Christian transferred soon after. Talbott remains.
The hope is that's motivational or Talbott can accelerate past Anderson's spot on the depth chart as his scholarship-having self surpasses Anderson's walk-on ceiling. Talbott got sporadic time last year and was okay for a freshman. He got lost on zone drops and was a weak tackler, etc. The book on him…
The book on Talbott: short, smart, agile, excellent in coverage but needs a year or two to bulk up for college.
…seemed pretty accurate. He can be a contributor down the road… if he sticks with football. There were widespread rumors Talbott was off the team, by choice, for a period this offseason.
Beyond Talbott it's true freshmen, but at least there's a horde of them. Maryland's Blake Countess arrives with the most hype and should be the biggest threat to play. (Caveat: last year Cullen Christian arrived with the most hype.) Greg Brown [recruiting profile] enrolled early and was decent in the spring game. Those two feature on the first depth chart. Talbott does not.
The rest of the n00bs: Raymon Taylor [recruiting profile] is speedy, might not have the greatest change of direction, and got a fourth star from Rivals. Delonte Hollowell [recruiting profile] is yet another smurfy Cass Tech corner who can't be put on outside receivers; he'll probably have to wait for time to open up at nickelback. He is rooting hard for Thomas Gordon to win the safety job opposite Kovacs. Finally, Tamani Carter [recruiting profile] is probably a safety; as a guy Michigan hijacked from Minnesota it will be a bad callback to Ray Vinopal if he doesn't redshirt.
That's five dudes instead of three; if it turns out some of the guys ahead of them on the depth chart can't play the one who emerges as a contributor will probably be better than Talbott and Avery were last year.
[* = player has taken redshirt. # = walk-on, or former walk-on]
Is it possible that last year's Michigan defense actually one-upped the safety horror on display in 2009? Yes. It was actually worse than even the situation that gave rise to this in last year's preview:
While the situation two years ago was never good it didn't drop off a cliff until Michigan moved Troy Woolfolk to corner. First Mike Williams and then Jordan Kovacs leisurely escorted opponents into the endzone for the remainder of the year, sure. But last year Michigan started out with this…
…and then pulled a similar switch by moving Cam Gordon to spur and inserting true freshman two-star Ray Vinopal. Vinopal wasn't quite as likely to take a terrible angle. Instead he was a 160-pound object in the way of Wisconsin's various house-sized Katamaris.
Artist's impression of Vinopal tackling Montee Ball
He also took some terrible angles. Kovacs was better but still kind of eh—he has not yet found that Iowa zen where the slow small white guy is always in the right place—and Michigan never got competent play from the other spot. Survey says increase doom panic victory 2010. And there was much rejoicing.
It can't be that bad again, right? I'm seriously asking this. Please, someone tell me it can't be that bad again. If no one else is willing to stand in front of that howitzer I guess it's up to me: they can't be that bad again.
It was already a foregone conclusion, but Brady Hoke explicitly confirmed that Jordan Kovacs will start for a third year this fall. He did so almost before anyone asked. The man once mistaken for Matt Cavanaugh by Greg Robinson is on track to becoming the first four-year starter at safety since Jamar Adams[Ed-M: Marcus Ray ('95-'98). Adams's RS Fr year was Shazor/Mundy]
Unfortunately, thanks to the defensive implosion of the last three years this does not necessarily mean he is any good. Whether he is or not is a subject of heated debate wherever Michigan's starting secondary is discussed. His freshman year he was solid as a box safety. His instincts and tackling made him an effective force player and blitzer. Then the whole Woolfolk-to-corner thing happened and he got switched into a deep half role. To say he struggled was an understatement. Some UFR comments from that portion of his freshman year:
Just can't play a deep half.
Again burned as a deep half safety.
Enormous bust #3.
So that didn't go so well.
Last year Michigan tried to move him back into the box by switching to a 3-3-5 in which he was the "bandit" (a strong safety that spends his time on or near the LOS), but then they spent a lot of time in a two deep shell that saw Kovacs's deep limitations tested again. He did not pass with flying colors but thanks to his awareness and solid tackling was not the flaming dump truck the rest of the secondary was. It's not a coincidence that the new coaching staff has been talking him up. Hoke:
"He's a guy that can get things lined up for you, and he's a tough guy, and he will go attack the football," Hoke said of the former walk-on. "He has a great deal of pride in his performance on a daily basis. He's one of those guys who has an urgency about getting to the football. I'm pleased with what he's done to this point. I would guess that he won't take a step backward."
Kovacs did improve last year, and significantly. Kovacs went from deep half dead meat to "the king of moderate-moderate-0". In three different games (ND, BGSU, and Indiana) he had plusses that exactly offset his minuses; in four more (UConn, UMass, Iowa, and Penn State) he was just above or below breaking even. He was excellent against MSU…
…may have had his best game at Michigan. He's so reliable; on a day when Michigan couldn't find a tackle it didn't want to miss, Kovacs twice dragged down TEs in space to boot MSU off the field. Only one counted, unfortunately.
…but he broke down late, picking up negative days against Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin.
Even so, his season was a step forward from obvious liability to "certainly not a liability." Even if he's a walk-on and even if he's obviously small and slow, he should continue improving. He'll be a little less small and slow with another year of conditioning. Being in a coherent defensive system should help put him in positions to make plays. His redshirt year was not spent on the team so he's not as close to his ceiling as your average redshirt junior.
He's not going to be Reggie Nelson. That won't keep him from becoming the first Michigan safety you only hate a little tiny bit since Jamar Adams.
Thomas Gordon: prison abs, manages to look badass on last year's D
The spot next to Kovacs is second to only weakside linebacker when it comes to mystery on this year's team. One candidate is sophomore Carvin Johnson, who had a plentiful helping of hype early and started in the spring game. The other is redshirt sophomore Thomas Gordon.
These two are familiar with each other since they spent last year duking it out with each other. The twist: they were doing so at Spur; Cam Gordon had locked down free safety. This year they're swapped.
The smaller Gordon has the advantage. He played at nickelback in the spring, swapping with the WLB on passing downs and covering slot receivers. He seemed well-suited for that spot. Moving him to safety signals some discontent with the options there, and since the move practice scuttlebutt has talked him up a bit more than Johnson. When Countdown to Kickoffflagged down DBs coach Curt Mallory he described the situation at safety like this:
It starts with Jordan right now. … He's done a great job, had a good two-a-days. Then we've got some younger guys in there. Thomas Gordon, I've been really pleased with how he's improved. [pause] And then with the two other guys…
That sounds like Johnson had eleven days to displace Gordon for Western Michigan. As of publication there's been no indication that switch has happened. Gordon was just named a starter by the WMU depth chart.
Gordon's 2010 was abbreviated. He started the season thanks to an injury to Johnson and played pretty well. Particularly impressive was his ability to roar off the edge without pulling a Brandon Harrison by zooming right by the quarterback. Gordon showed a knack for coming in at the fastest possible speed that would allow him to rope the QB to the ground, which accounted for many of his plus plays last year. Here's a good one against Notre Dame:
Outside of that it was minus half points here and there for poor coverage or missed tackles. He and Johnson displayed a knack for finishing his day with around three positive points and two negative ones. The spur was not a high-impact position either way last year until Cam Gordon switched to it and promptly got himself lost on flat zones he'd never been asked to play before.
Like Avery above, Gordon's ability to not be the most spectacularly flaming tire is encouraging. He came in with bler recruiting rankings but—again like Avery—he was a high school quarterback who got a Michigan camp offer and then did not play in his high school's secondary because of injury. He's beaten out some actual scholarship players and drawn praise from the coaches for his play. When I clipped something he did last year it was usually something positive.
I have the same optimism about this Johnson/Gordon combo that I had last year. This, of course, terrifies me. It seems unnatural to think an unproven Michigan safety could be competent. I like Gordon's agility and tackling, though, and while there will be rough spots early by midseason he should settle into that midlevel safety range like Englemon or Barringer.
Carvin Johnson does not like losing.
Curt Mallory wants his safeties to be interchangeable, so this will probably be a situation like offensive line where there's a line behind the starters and whoever the top backup is will come off the bench no matter who exits. That is likely to be Carvin Johnson. Johnson shouldn't feel too down: what small tea leaves we've gotten from the defense suggest he will be the first defensive back off the bench when Michigan goes nickel—in the Saturday punting demo he was on the field plenty as Thomas Gordon played nickelback in Michigan's third down package.
His season was even more abbreviated than Gordon's due to injury. I clipped three events from him last year:
#2 won't be an issue if he's playing a deep safety; #3 is an asset that was promised by his recruiting profile. One… maybe not so much. Though people talk him up Michigan felt it necessary to move Gordon back, whereupon he won the job. He's probably a little unreliable at the moment.
Past Johnson there are actual scholarship(!) players who weren't(!) in high school last year. One is Marvin Robinson [recruiting profile], he of the obligatory OMG shirtless pictures…
you're welcome, ladies
…and that thing he did in the spring game where he ran with a slant pattern while Mike Cox was waving at him en route to the endzone. Practice reports on Robinson alternate tales of massive here-comes-the-BOOM-type hits and equally massive touchdown-ceding errors. If you hit up that recruiting profile you'll see a lot of skepticism he can play safety; last year he spent a good chunk of his time at WLB. That may be his long term destination.
For now he's behind Kovacs. He seems to be the second guy in the pecking order; Michigan will try to avoid using him until he has that consistency thing every coach ever but especially Michigan's keep harping on.
The final scholarship guy is Josh Furman. Furman's a bit like Avery in that he was almost exclusively an offensive player in high school. (He put up some Rawls-like games in the Maryland state playoffs.) Michigan managed to redshirt him last year, so his recruiting profile is about all we know. He's reputed to be super athletic, like six FAKES out of five 40 athletic, and will have a role on special teams this year. When asked about the safeties for CTK, Mallory mentioned Kovacs, Gordon, Johnson, and Robinson but not Furman. He's still a year or two away from seeing the field on defense.
The word on Robinson (BOOM or TD) sounds exactly like my memories of the practice buzz surrounding Shazor, rumors that were accompanied by huge special teams hits in his first couple years. Is that a good thing? Can we find out if Dorian Bryant still has eligibility at Purdue?
Lots of question marks, but I couldn't not be enthused about all this if I tried. I like both of the Gordon's, and it's hard to imagine Carvin not getting back on the field at some point. There is at least something behind everyone, which is already a minor upgrade. Above all else, can't wait to see T-Woolf back on the field-- missed that guy so much last year.
Last year, on the day of Troy's injury, I stated that Rich just lost his job. Woolfolk was that important. The fact that he returns changes the entire defense, period.
Football returns at the end of the work week, kids. Life is good.
It's been my observation that there's really not much difference between the 1- and 2-stars and the few walk-ons who make it onto a 2-deep. A 2-star is usually a guy who in high school can play ball but has one or two glaring weaknesses of a physical nature. That about describes the top of the walk-ons.
Anderson was not good enough to ever threaten to start during last year's disasters. At that point he was a redshirt junior and healthy and playing on special teams, but not good enough to warrant a thought of putting him ahead of three true freshmen. I have a hard time believing Anderson has progressed beyond that between his 4th and 5th years on the team.
Anderson also wasn't good enough to make Scout or Rivals as a prospect, despite Redondo Union being kind of hard to miss for scouts (it's one of the main beach towns within L.A. -- I could recommend a fantastic seafood place on the pier).
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Tony Anderson specifically said in his Countdown to Kickoff video that Michigan offered him an athletic scholarship, but he turned it down because he had an academic scholarship from the Gates Foundation. The stars don't matter in this instance, because Anderson was offered an athletic scholarship and would have taken it had he not had the academic scholarship in hand. So, he in essence is not a walk-on.
And now we've spent too much time analyzing Tony Anderson's financial background in attending Michigan.
I think you kind of misunderstood what he meant about the scholarship.
He was offered a scholarship this year, not out of high school.
M is using only 77 scholarships for 2010-'11 on guys offered scholarships out of high school. You only have to be at 85 during the season (you can get up to 25 more during the year), so next year's early enrollees are not a concern. Therefore at this point Michigan can offer scholarships for the 2011-'12 year to 8 of its walkons.
That's what Anderson was offered. I think the others given schollies this year are Grady, Brink, Heininger, McColgan, Van Slyke, Gunderson and Broekhuizen, with one more saved for a rainy day.
Anyway, the point is it doesn't change his "walk-on" status. Tony came here like any other student, by which I mean like any other student who gets a full ride for out-of-state tuition from the Gates foundation, speaks Arabic and Armenian, and is set to graduate cum laude from LSA, all while working his way onto the 2-deep, special teams and goal line packages on the football team.
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I thought last year there was a double problem.... the CB's started out 10 yards off because they were young/inexperienced/awful which left them open to slants, screens, & .... well everything else. This on top of the fact that 3 down linemen is not going to get any pressure on the QB at all, thus allowing time for opponents to take their time shredding the "prevent" defense that the CB's were playing.... I think there's no way that Mattison, Hoke, or anybody other than GERG/RR combo would think this is an ok gameplan.
So while the talent level is a bit scary, at least there's not a 12 year old making the play calls....
[EDIT: I also think JT Floyd should get at least a -4 or -5 for that pass play vs PSU]
"...when the ole' season is over, you and I know, it's going to be Michigan again; Michigan!"
I honestly believe coaching and experience can be more important than star rating. These guys are still great athletes and I think underrated. Anyone who has played sports knows how hard it is to just go out out there and just wing it. That's what it felt like the last 3 years. They were set up to fail. Without injuries I think this defense will surprise a lot of people. Can the season just start already!
In a normal world, only hardcore M fans would know the names of most of these kids. They are only So & Fr that wouldn't have seen the field much if at all yet. They've been thrust into the position of starting right-f'in-now and expected to do things that are not normally asked of a player until they are a JR/SR.
3 years of wandering the desert is coming to an end. We can see the promised land now. But, do we get there this year or next is the question. At least Gerg isn't the one leading anything now.
So glad that Woolfolk is back this year. Glad to hear that he was able to recover from his injury. Lines like "But in the tire fire that was last year's secondary he showed a little spark" are classic Brian and are part of the reason I visit this blog everyday. Keep up the good work Brian.
"It's good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that and I know. But lately, I'm getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over." Tony Soprano
He is the only one that has (at least he did previously, hope he is fully recovered) the speed to hang with elite big ten receivers. In order for this secondary to be successful, Woolfolk has to be a shutdown corner on the opposing teams top receiver. IF he is fully recovered, he has the speed and size to do it. Then Kovacs the tackling machine can get his and hopefully Avery, Gordon and Johnson can hold their own.
If Woolfolk can't get it done, we are going to give up a ton of yards through the air. I really think we are going to miss Vinopal. Despite his weight, he was our best free safety last year and it wasn't even close. Need to put him on the Never forget poster.
Michigan was 10th in passing D and 9th in rushing defense
The new coaching staff will certainly make a positive impact and help the players improve their coverage technique and tackling, but the fact remains that Michigan's secondary is not very talented and not very deep either. It's not that difficult to exceed the onfield performances of a Minnesota, NW, Purdue and Indiana in pass defense. Given the pieces on the board and assuming zero injuries, I'd say Michigan should be "well pleased" with itself with a Big Ten finish of 7th or 5th at best in pass defense.
It's great to have Woolfolk back (a Michigan legacy player and 3-star recruit). While Michigan's secondary should be improved, I think it will still be one of worst secondaries in the league this fall.
The good news is that Michigan doesn't face Russell Wilson or Terrelle Pryor this fall, but they do need to face some dangerous QBs in Dayne Crist, Ryan Lindley, Kirk Cousins, Nathan Scheelhaase, Taylor Martinez and Dan Persa. I find the last three listed to be the most worrying for UM's secondary in general.
In conclusion, things can't possibly be as bad as last year. Oh hear our prayer, defensive position gods!..
but the part that you didn't mention, but I'm sure you already know, is the hope that the def line will apply pressure and lend assistance to the backfield. The aggressive D I'm reading about and blitz packages Mattison is putting together I hope keeps some Off coordinators on their heels...
dissapointing marvin robinson hasnt been able to unseat some very average / below average talent. i know i know....kovacs works reaaaallly hard and has a huge heart and all that stuff...but when i picture a michigan defensive secondary that actually stops people i picture guys like m rob. howeva....if mattison/mallory get this crew to play solid...the skys the limit when we get an inlfux of talent via recruiting.
Though that picture from the Penn St game still makes me weep bitter tears of blood, I must say that this is a lot better than...
...which is basically what happened last year. At CB, we have a 5th year Senior who's probably good enough to sneak onto a 2nd or 3rd All Big-10 team, and two guys who've seen significant playing time (despite their faults).
We have a Box Safety who's in his 3rd year starting and probably another Honorable Mention All Big-10.
Deep Safety is a question mark, but I have to hold out hope that Prison Abs and Carvin Johnson can at least hold their own.
1. We have returning starters at almost every position. This is good.
2. Corners - we have actual non-freshmen, non-walks starting, and those players should be solidly average. We have 1 real back-up for those two spots, and he (Floyd) is not very good, but at least he is experienced. If no injuries, out starters should be fine - average - enough to hold their own against most teams that we play against, probably not enough to shut down the better teams. Also, Countess may develop over the season, and is a viable back-up, albeit as a true freshman.
3. Safety - JK is going to be fine - lacks some physical tools, but very solid fundamentally, mentally and in the smarts department. The other starting and back-up safeties are physically fine, still somewhat young, have great abs, and will probably make some mistakes, but way less.
4. If you combine points 2 and 3, our secondary will be fine, provided that there is not a rash of injuries. Not great, not good, but also not a tire fire. Average is the new awesome.