Postseason Hoops Mailbag, Part II: Spike, Breakout Player, Bigs, Bigs, More Bigs
Dawkins, Wilson, and Chatman give M three non-Wagner breakout candidates.
Part one of the postseason mailbag, which definitely didn't include an egregious error in the original post, can be found here. Part two got quite lengthy, so let's get right to it.
A Spike return is very unlikely.
@AceAnbender Do you think Spike is 100% out the door, or do you think there's a chance he'll be back if another player leaves? #mgomailbag
— Erik in Dayton (@erik_dayton) March 29, 2016
While that door isn't completely closed, it would shock me if Spike ended up back on the roster next season, and I think it would shock him, too:
With that, Albrecht and Beilein shook hands and parted ways. According to Albrecht, Beilein told him that if an additional scholarship should open up at Michigan, the program would "entertain the idea of" him returning, but added that such a scenario is unlikely.
"That's a long shot," Albrecht said Monday. "And really, I don't even know if they'd want to bring me back because they'll already have two very talented point guards on the roster next year."
I know it's hard to come to terms with this because Spike is such a beloved figure, but this is the best arrangement for both parties involved. The issue with bringing Spike back, even if a spot does open up, is you're then impeding the development of a highly regarded player at the same position. Xavier Simpson is the future at point guard for this program and they justifiably want him to get plenty of time next year. If he's stuck behind Walton and Albrecht, it's hurting the team down the road just so the team can have a marginal one-year upgrade at backup point guard—and that's not a slight against Spike, just an assessment of Simpson's talent. Plus, Albrecht isn't exactly a sure thing after coming off surgeries to both his hips.
As Spike mentioned above, returning to Michigan isn't necessarily his ideal scenario, either. If he's healthy, there's a good chance he'll start at another program—he'll be able to choose a school with that role available to him. That's not going to be the case in Ann Arbor with Walton coming back and Simpson arriving.
If there's further attrition, I'd rather see Michigan go after a grad transfer shooting guard, preferably one who's a positive on the defensive end—that's a far bigger need than a third point guard. Alternatively, they could go after a stretch four to take pressure off Zak Irvin if there's attrition in the frontcourt. That's far from the sentimental choice, but I think it's the best one for the team.
It appears John Beilein is thinking along the same lines. According to ESPN's Jeff Borzello, Michigan is one of the programs that's contacted grad transfer Columbia combo guard Grant Mullins, who's a 44% three-point shooter. At 6'3" with a PG-like assist-to-turnover ratio, Mullins could play either guard position. The coaches also reportedly contacted Sacred Heart transfer Cane Broome (that is apparently a real name), but there doesn't appear to be strong mutual interest; Michigan isn't listed among the schools Broome plans to visit, per CBS's Jon Rothstein.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]
Most improved next year?
Hi Ace,
Which player on the roster do you think has the most potential to make a big improvement from what we have seen from them thus far in their career?
-UmfanChris
There are three that immediately come to mind without including Moe Wagner, who's been discussed thoroughly in this season review series. If I had to pick one, it would be DJ Wilson, who barely made a dent on the court as a redshirt freshman while continuing to learn how to play like a big man. In his limited time on the court, Wilson played both the four and the five, and if he begins to realize his prodigious athletic potential, he could become a critical part of the rotation in a similar role.
While sample size and opponent caveats abound, Wilson had ten blocks in only 158 minutes this season. Although he didn't have the strength or technique to be a plus post defender, he can develop that over time, and meanwhile he can provide the type of weakside help from the four that would go a long way towards covering for M's lack of a rim-protecting center.
That, of course, would require Wilson to show enough offensive skill to stretch the defense in Beilein's system; he has the potential to do so. Wilson played like a wing in a high school and showed some range this season, making 7/23 three-pointers—not a great mark, to be sure, but something that can be built upon. Wisconsin forward Vitto Brown was 0/0 on threes in his first two years, playing sparingly, before knocking down 40% of his 95 attempts this season. There's no guarantee Wilson can make the same leap, but it's not unprecedented, and if he does it opens up many possible situational lineups for Beilein to deploy.
The other two are Kam Chatman and Aubrey Dawkins. Chatman showed flashes of why he was a highly rated recruit; when he's on his game, he's a skilled passer for his size, a solid rebounder, and better suited to defend traditional power forwards than Irvin. If he can consistently make open jumpers, which he hasn't yet been able to do at Michigan, there's a clear role for him.
Dawkins, meanwhile, has the highest athletic ceiling of anyone on the roster and a reliable outside shot. His defense is so bad, however, that it's hard to justify playing him big minutes against quality opponents; Duncan Robinson held onto his starting role even through a lengthy shooting slump because even the D-III transfer was a clear defensive upgrade over Dawkins. There are many areas of Dawkins' game with room for improvement—driving, moving without the ball, rebounding, and passing all come to mind—but his development in those facets won't matter much if he doesn't cut out the mental errors and get much better at staying between his man and the basket. It'd also be quite nice if he starting making his Sportscenter-caliber dunk attempts.
Wither Pittsnogle?
Ace, why isn't that Johnny Beehive cannot seem to land the type of athletic stretch big that his offense calls for? Vitto Brown is one that comes to mind. I know DJ Wilson and Wagner are in that mold, but neither seems to be the shooter than Brown was as a freshman. It seems UM should be able to attract higher ranked, more athletic players that are already solid 3 point shooters. I don't think either Teske or Davis fit that mikd coming in as freshman.
First thing's first: let's all agree never to use that nickname again. Cool? Cool.
I included this more to address the assumption behind the question than the question itself. Even though Michigan literally posted the highest offensive efficiency in the history of KenPom to date with Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford platooning at center, there's a misconception that Beilein's offense requires a Kevin Pittsnogle.
While a Pittsnogle is very nice to have, it's exceedingly hard to find a true big man who can step out and shoot the three. Look no further for evidence than Mark Donnal, who was supposed to be the next Pittsnogle but has struggled to hold up down low and hasn't reliably knocked down outside shots so far at Michigan. Donnal, Wagner, and Wilson all have the potential to be that type of player, but it's more important that they function well in the pick-and-roll and become quality post defenders—like, say, Jordan Morgan.
Because of this, I've actually been quite pleased with Beilein's focus for the incoming big men. In recent years, I think he's recruited centers based too much on skill instead of bringing in bigger guys who may not have pretty jumpers but can haul in boards and protect the paint. Jon Teske is 6'11" and known as a shot-blocker. Austin Davis is 6'10" and slimmed down from 265 pounds to 235 this past season. Neither is going to be a Pittsnogle, but if they can set good screens, catch and finish at the rim, and play solid defense, that'll do a lot more to get this team back to where it was from 2012-14 than having a Donnal/Smotrycz-type who can sink the occasional three. Getting a Pittsnogle is optimal, but if there were many players like that out there, every major program would have one.
Austin Davis will need time to adjust to playing against taller players. [Upchurch]
Instant-impact center?
@AceAnbender Can we expect either freshman big to pass Donnal on depth chart (assuming Mo is No.1 big)? If so, which one? #mgomailbag
— C. Jarrett Dieterle (@CJDieterle) March 30, 2016
I highly doubt it. With another year of development, Donnal should be a solid reserve big man or average-ish starter. He improved a great deal on offense this season, and while his defense is far from good, it's wishful thinking to expect an upgrade on that end from a true freshman. Big men can take a while to develop; those discounting Donnal's possible impact are doing so way too soon, especially since we haven't seen a version of Moe Wagner that can stay on the court for starter-level minutes.
Meanwhile, Teske has a lot of filling out to do before he's ready for the physical aspect of playing in the post; standing at 6'11", he's listed at a rail-thin 210 pounds. While Davis is more college-ready from a physical standpoint, he played his high school ball in Onsted, Michigan, which has a population of less than a thousand. Davis played small-school competition and will face an even bigger transition than most high school big men as a result.
I'd be surprised if either were ready to supplant Donnal, or even Wilson, in the rotation this season. That's before considering that both might benefit more from a redshirt year than getting thrown into the fire right away, too. I expect one will get spot minutes as the third or fourth center (depending on how Wilson is deployed) and the other redshirts, allowing Michigan to get a year of separation eligibility-wise between the two to better balance the roster.
Donnal in a new role?
Hi Ace,
Is Donnal miscast as a 5, and do you see him getting any minutes at the 4 next year?
Even after Doyle's departure, if Wagner can make gains and stay out if trouble Davis and/or Teske can back him up.
Playing Donnal at the 4 would be less awkward than previous attempts at playing two bigs (like Horford and McGary) since Donnal can be a legit threat behind the line.
With a few exceptions, Irvin just wasn't the offensive mismatch at the 4 that he needs to be to make up for the mismatch on the other end. Maybe getting worn out trying to play post D played a role in his shooting slump.
Playing Donnal and Irvin at their natural positions seems like it would improve both offensive and defensive efficiency, but I'm not sure we'll see it.
Thanks,
Spiff
As you can probably guess from my previous answers, I don't think this will solve Michigan's lineup issues, either. Michigan needs Donnal at center unless you believe Wagner will cut his foul rate by more than half and one of the true freshmen is ready to play significant minutes; I do not share this belief.
The other issue is that Donnal isn't athletic enough to guard most fours, nor has he shown he's a good enough outside shooter to keep defenses honest in that role on offense—he certainly woudn't be creating off the dribble. If Michigan wants to play something resembling a two-big lineup next year, getting DJ Wilson more minutes at the four is a much better bet. I do agree that getting Irvin some help there is one of M's biggest offseason priorities.
Will Donnal be Bielfeldt'd?
@AceAnbender #mgomailbag pic.twitter.com/2hz537KKpR
— Abraham May (@Smoothitron) March 29, 2016
I get the feeling Beilein has learned from what happened with Bielfeldt. I should also add that I don't think letting Bielfeldt go made a huge difference for Michigan this season; even though Indiana mostly played him at the four, helping mitigate his lack of size, his efficiency plummeted against quality opponents—the Wolverines still would've lacked post defense and a reliable inside scoring threat.
Anyway, it's possible Beilein would let Donnal seek a grad transfer after this season, but the decision to reclassify Donnal came long before Ricky Doyle's departure—it occurred when Doyle projected as a decent four-year starter. The outlook at center is obviously quite different now and bringing Donnal back for a fifth year is as simple as editing the roster page on MGoBlue. Unless Donnal is usurped by one of the freshmen or DJ Wilson morphs into a true big man, I'm betting Beilein will want him back.
Can't have it both ways. All these things matter, especially for a team that isn't brimming with NBA talent.
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Yep, I disagree that Bielfeldt wouldn't have helped much. By percentage, he would've been one of the 2 or 3 best shooters on a team that shoots a lot. I guess the argument could be made that he wouldn't have gotten the kind of looks at Michigan that he did at Indiana but still, that's a valuable player, especially in a 3 point heavy offense, that we let go for nothing.
March 31st, 2016 at 12:05 AM ^
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I'm curious What was Walton's offensive rating in 2015? I know Spike was at 112 last year and over 100 for the last ten games of the year when he started. I know he's injured, but I'm not sure that a healthy Spike isn't actually better than Derrick Walton. The court is played on two sides, and I know that Walton is a more effective defender, but he had a really rough year in the half court and Albrecht excelled at the end of last year dribbling around the lane and freeing up shooters. Crazy thought, I know. I'm just not as sold on Walton as this blog.
`Dude, Beilein's not a dummy when it comes to guard play. Walton outplayed him from day 1 despite being younger.
Last year's team was horrible and a big reason that they improve this year was going from Spike to Derrick.
March 31st, 2016 at 12:00 AM ^
March 31st, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^
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But it's flat-out ridiculous to think Spike is better than Walton. I didn't say the coaches always play the right guy, but Beilein's proven himself to be about as good as it gets at coaching guards. It's not that starters are ALWAYS better than backups but a) they usually are and b) you have 3 years of track record to go off. Spike and Derrick have been on the same team for 3 years and while their injuries have come at different times, Derrick was clearly ahead and nothing has changed in the regard.
This team was bad when Spike was a starter. They've won tournament games both years Walton has started. Some things aren't worth debating.
Also - McGary and Wagner not starting as freshman weren't necessarily bad decisions.
- That is a huge roll of the dice for someone who said, at the time of his retirement in December, that he had a "genetic" hip issue and that he was increasingly worried he was going to re-tear his labrum.
Additionally, Walton had a rating of 109.9 in 2015-2016, even with his struggles. As you noted, he's a better defender than Spike, and a much better rebounder.
- No Power 5 coach is going to turn the offense over to Spike (well, maybe Rutgers). That's not b/c of ability -- Spike is a quality player. It's b/c no team can reasonably rely on him for 30-32 minutes a game, which is what you need from a starter.
He'll go somewhere that he can be the #2 PG and if he breaks down again, the team isn't screwed. We already have a #2 -- Xavier Simpson. You don't sign the best player in Ohio to have him sit the bench, especially when he needs to take over the offense in 2016-2017.
Spike is doing what's best for him; we're doing what's best for UM. That's how it has to work out.
describing how Beilein has put restrictions on where Spike can play.
Talk about a bunch of hypocrites at Michigan. You're happy to take Jake Rudock from Iowa but Spike can't play for a B1G team? What a bad look.
March 31st, 2016 at 12:00 AM ^
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March 30th, 2016 at 11:57 PM ^
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March 31st, 2016 at 12:47 AM ^
Syracuse likes tall guards in its zone defense. I don't think Spike qualifies. I'm confident that he'll find a good landing place.
While I think Biefeldt would have been noticeably better than what we rolled out, I don't think he would have been worth 2 extra wins, which would have just hopped them ahead of Ohio State.
I disagree with comments above that a year of health won't have a significant difference for Irvin and Walton. It affects pre-season preparation a lot, which is hard to make up over the season. Those two have to be better for us to improve.
March 30th, 2016 at 10:00 PM ^
I thought we all "trusted Beilein"???
And now there's all this angst over a guy who's had two hip surgeries, and really has not played for two years?
On this one, I trust the Beilein.
Thanks, Spike. Your first half performance against Lousiville was nice, as was the rest of that tournament run--but the team captured lightning in a bottle and lost.
Good luck, and thanks for the memory.
It's emotional. Physically small, not athletically gifted except that he can shoot, white guy works his butt off on and off the floor and can play ball; in other words, if only it could have been me! Wish him the best, but hip surgery is not easy to come back from when you are an athlete dependent on quickness and sudden movement.
I think this is true for many fans but most won't admit it. These leads to some illogical explanations for why certain guys are criticized or viewed as disappointments while others become fan favorites.
For example, GR3 was far better at basketball than Zack Novak at pretty much everything related to basketball (3 point shooting excepted). Expectations/recruiting rankings are part of it, but the team won more with him, he had more highlights, and it was just flat out fun to watch him play basketball. Yet GR3 isn't the guy people talk about hanging his jersey in the rafters.
I think the "he looks like me so I like him" is a more honest explanation than most you'll get.
This is not the best place to go if you want the x's and o's of basketball, but, having said that, the coverage is very good, comparable to the newspapers in quality of writing and much more in depth. This year the problem has been that the bloggers and many commentators have tended to underestimate the damage caused by losing your best player and second best point guard, the difficulty of recovering from certain types of surgery (have any of you tried to play a sport after back surgery or be a point guard after 6 months off and another ankle sprain?--it's the practice time you lose that hurts the most), and harshly judging a team and certain players by standards that very few can meet, and to forget that young people can change and improve substantially. They've imported the Michigan should win the Big Ten every year from football to basketball. Well, I agree about both, but at my age one becomes more realistic.
They also completely forget/ignore women's sports most of the time. I've seen one article on the softball team. How bout the women's basketball team. The NIT ain't much anymore, but it's all we go in basketball.
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