Picture Pages: Various Plays Of No Interest Comment Count

Brian

Every time I post a play analysis these days there are a half-dozen people in the comments who mention that if player X did hard thing Y they are not prepared to do then the play would work. This has gotten to the point where I can explicitly prepare for such criticism and find them ignored, as in the most recent one, and find a diary on this site asserting that if player X did hard thing Y something would have worked.

This is extremely frustrating to me, because these are good-faith attempts to paint broader pictures of what I'm seeing down to down, game after game, year after year, as I try to figure out what Michigan football is doing. Various critics, most prominently Space Coyote, make a few small concessions and then go about explaining why play X was a good call and why it would have worked. They implicitly assert things like "Joe Kerridge in a ton of space should deviate from expecting Nebraska to use their slot LB as a force and ably block that guy when that LB believes the inverted veer is coming, has no need to respect the slot receiver because he is covered, and runs directly into Fitzgerald Toussaint."

I disagree with that. I have watched a lot of people play a lot of football and I think that's hard. I'm trying not to have a stance here; I am evaluating whether I think a thing is easy to do or hard and assigning a number to that feel. Coaches tend to think everything is an execution issue. Players should be able to do arbitrarily hard things.  Some arrows on a diagram say this should work. Meanwhile I think there's a 10% chance for Kerridge to abort the plan and do anything with hell-for-leather blitzer and judge accordingly. Various guys dying on Borges Hill disagree.

I don't know what might be sufficient other than 175 yards against Nebraska to convince these guys that a poor offensive game plan can even exist, but here are various things that are normally too dull to post in a Picture Pages in which unblocked guys on blitzes obliterate Michigan runners for no or little gain.

These are representative of a larger slice of the game and a general feel that confirmed the Nebraska players' postgame assertions that they were expecting most of what Michigan threw at them. Tomorrow's Picture Pages will cover every play of the game, because this isn't going to work either.

One

Here is an iso. The slot LB is an eighth guy in the box and crashes down unblocked to tackle.

unblocked-dude-1unblocked-dude-4unblocked-dude-6

As this goes for three yards it qualifies as one of Michigan's best plays on the day on the ground. Three yards is not good on first and ten, and there was nothing Michigan could do about it.

Two

Here is a zone play. Nebraska loads up and sends a blitz through a gap that Michigan doesn't pick up as Bosch ends up doubling with Lewan.

However, because of the blitz the only thing Bosch making a very good play to recognize and pick up the charging LB does is send Green to one of the two unblocked guys, either the backside guy ripping down the LOS without thought of checking the QB or a linebacker sitting two yards deep without anyone trying to get him, because Nebraska's blitz has prevented anyone from moving to the second level.

un-1un-5un-6

Three

Here is a power play. Nebraska loads up with eight in the box and one deep safety and blitzes.

blitz-1

blitz-2

A Nebraska linebacker ends up shooting the gap behind the Bosch pull and meets Green in the backfield.

blitz-4

Michigan loses two yards and has third and eleven.

Four

Oh for pants' sake.

The offensive line is not in fact overwhelmed here; they are not actually involved because Nebraska's blitz is perfect to destroy the inverted veer.

Items Of Interest

All of this is an execution issue, sure. For a given definition of execution, this is an execution issue. Michigan's hyper-raw OL should be able to block this. They should be able to deal with Nebraska switching gaps and blazing LBs to the point of attack. They should be able to block Nebraska's maniacal run-oriented loaded box. They would do this, if only they could execute.

Except the last one. And the first one. And probably the second and third.

Either you believe that players can be put in positions they can succeed or players are expected to succeed in the positions they are put in. I am in the former camp. The last few Borges defenders are in the latter camp. This entire season Space Coyote has been gamely explaining what should have happened on failed play after failed play without any thought to how difficult what should have happened is.

Players do not exist in a vacuum. Joe Kerridge is trying to block a guy in acres of space and that guy has the jump on him because he knows Funchess is covered, and he knows what Michigan's running. I look at that and I think "Jesus, I do not want to be Joe Kerridge there."

I am admittedly working from a hand-waving feel on this, but it's no worse a feel than whatever Space Coyote has gotten from doing whatever he does with whatever team at a totally different level of competition. I say Michigan puts their players in a spot to work miracles or die, and that this is on both the overall structure of the offense and the predictability of playcalls based on formations and down and distance. Space Coyote makes certain concessions to not seem totally insane and then goes back to hammering the fact that it's all execution.

Kerridge was put in a spot to fail, and did. I'm looking at the play and saying I believe there is a small chance that Kerridge can make a tough play in space; the guys in the comments think that because Kerridge could hypothetically have made a play none of this goes back to the folks in charge.

These plays. The above plays are no-chancers for the offense, because Michigan is running into the teeth of a defense stacked to stop the run and blitzing. In UFR lingo they acquired sizeable rock-paper-scissors minuses. In compensation Michigan got two screens which both got large RPS plus numbers, but the number of downs thrown away in this game running at a Nebraska defense that seemed to be in Michigan's head was alarming. When I add it up, I am guessing things will come out highly negative, and then people will cluck at me about that.

I won't deny that things are more likely to get put in the negative bin there when you have fewer options because you're not good, but in my opinion running plays you suck at into stacked boxes is a bad idea. So is the continued deployment of Toussaint as a pass blocker on plays that take forever to develop. That, too, is an execution issue, but it is nuts to expect him to block guys now, and the offense would be better served if he was used in a pattern or replaced by a fullback or something. Instead… he is not.

But yeah yeah, the expectation is for the position.

Comments

jsquigg

November 13th, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^

What a stupid statement.  This just shows that you don't read UFR or picture pages in depth.  Brian gives very clear answers to why a play or set of plays don't work.  I guess the self proclaimed coaches on this site think that you have to coach or play to have a valid opinion about football.  No wonder these people back Borges....

jsquigg

November 13th, 2013 at 2:00 PM ^

I'm sorry, but it's gotten almost unbearable the amount of people who are dismissing Brian's analysis, passively or not, and SC feels the need to post 200 times in every picture page/UFR thread and establish his truth.  Whenever this group gets called out they say they aren't defending the coaches, but then their analysis blames the players for execution.  Then when Brian gets frustrated and front pages his thoughts after he was originally called out, these same people get sensitive and call out Brian for naming names, even though Brian gets run through the wood chipper almost daily.  I'm glad Brian posted this and it just goes to show that the fanbase still seems to be factioned.

The FannMan

November 13th, 2013 at 5:54 PM ^

Fan 1: I though that the first championship was the best.  It was so fun!

Fan 2: You're just taking about your feelings, man.  The stats show that the second title was superior.

Fan 3: I thought they were both great!

Fan 4: 1997 was waaaaay better.

Fan 5: They both sucked.

Fan 1:  I liked 1997 to.

Fans 2, 3, 4 &  5:  Its "too" not "to" moron.

 

 

Year of Revenge II

November 13th, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^

I understand and am totally on board with Brian's frustration with Borges and his apologists; however, it is not my blog and I do not live with it seriously to a great degree, because it is my expectation that staff's stubborn insistence to repeat strategies that by and large fail is not going to be changing any time soon.  At least Bo got 3 yards or more often, with predictable and most times conservative play-calling. When the 7 passes he let Dennis Franklin throw or the counters to his ordinarly backfield movements happened, big plays ensued.  Yeah, maybe we had better players, but there was consistency and purpose in the movement on the field. It was often frustrating too, but goals got achieved even though Bo's conservative nature seemed to limit signature big wins more than everyone wanted.

This is a different era. It doesn't mean you cannot win with power, but if you do not have balance and adjust to what the other side is trying to take away from you, forget it. Minnesota has now won two big games in row by not going into a predictable shell at game's end, but by throwing at times the defense was committed to taking away the run.

PSU end game is not the only issue. We lack flow, function.  Borges, or Hoke, or whoever insists on repeating plays and schemes under game conditions that we should have proven to ourselves mean we most likely are going backwards rather than forwards is now laughable.  They can turn it around, it probably isn't happening without some changes in approach. I respect Borges, and Space Coyote, because of their dedication to intracacies of the game beyond me.  But it has become a forest for the trees issue with  Borges apologists.

In fact, I'll repeat the theory of my buddy:

Space Coyote Likely is Al Borges.

My life-long friend and I both matriculated to, and graduated from, UM in early 70’s.  We both have professional degrees.  My grandfather/father were/are UM grads with professional degrees. 

We admit we cannot definitely prove it, but feel that Space Coyote’s real identity likely is none other than Al Borges.

Having read and gleaned from numerous threads his defense of UM coaching in copious respects, of Borges’s PSU game strategy, particularly end-of-game PSU strategy, almost all things MSU, and now regarding Nebraska on various topics, I must say that I suspect my friend and game-day watching buddy is right.

I’m not getting into any logic debate with these two, er…., this guy, though.  I’ve experienced enough losing this year, several times even while winning.  I say, “IF we are wrong, and we very well could be, then to dispel all doubt, bring forth the evidence!!!”  If we are right, then we say many questions regarding to what is happening on Saturdays finally has a plausible explanation.  Can you just imagine, then, what it took for them, er… Borges, to stay abreast of all the blogging developments?  No man, even with his experiences and training, could then put 11 Michigan Men in spaces where 11 non-Michigan Men were NOT within well-defined territorial boundaries, even if they could “execute”.  Or, in the case of blockers, put them where the non-Michigan Men were, or were expected to be given past locations of a somewhat repetitive nature.

If Al Borges is out there, then let him reveal himself.  If he is not, and “change is gonna come” is but a truism for life rather than Michigan Man offensive philosophy and production, then maybe the lyrics to the MSU fight song are more clever than they first appear.

itauditbill

November 13th, 2013 at 2:25 PM ^

Well to be honest he should refer to the MAC fight song lyrics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_State_University_Fight_Song

 

Smash right through that line of blue,
Watch the points keep growing.
Aggie teams are bound to win,
They're fighting with a vim!
Rah! Rah! Rah!
Michigan is weakening,
We're going to win this game.
Fight! Fight! Rah! Team, Fight!
Victory for M.A.C.!

 

 

snackyx

November 13th, 2013 at 2:39 PM ^

I think that Space Coyote's support of the OC against the mounting evidence (at least in the eyes of some) that all is not well in Borges world has caused the poster to muse whether Al Borges is posting under the name Space Coyote.  Probable? No. Possible? Doubtful. Absolutely out of the question? Cue the Twilight Zone music.

Year of Revenge II

November 13th, 2013 at 3:29 PM ^

The question is a bit vague. What guy? What day? But no, regardless.

The inferences---only Borges himself could be sef-deluded enough to believe his PSU end-of-game strategy made strategic sense.  First-snap field goal attempts might have been wiser.  Space Coyote's defense of Borges's moves in that game is so outlandish, illogical, and laughable that it is more reasonable to believe that Space Coyote IS Borges. (Sorry, SC, but that is way I feel about your "postion to succeed" article)

Hoke does not get a pass because he is a "Michigan Man", unlike the perception of RR, though neither went to school there. Get a grip, head-coach the team and make some decisions, or walk back to San Diego or wherever.  He seems to be a great guy, but head coach at Michigan demands leadership beyond what he has demonstrated thus far. I'm still solidly behind him, but not if continues to be seemingly oblivious to the obvious.  We cannot keep changing coaches, but it aint going in the right direction for Hoke. Go back a read the list of post-Fisher basketball coaches. Took a long time to get right, but guys will come and go until they do. I listed my Michigan-Man bona fides before I got called an "mgoidiot" even though i really couildn't care less.  Have at it.

Have you read the lyrics to MSU fight song? They seem to have been written by a first-grader, yet MSU is now the gold standard footballl program in this state.  (A bit obtuse I'll grant you.) They outscheme us, they outcoach us, and they have been spanking us.  A school on the banks of the red cedar with a blow-up mascot and academic standards below us is OUTTHINKING us.

We rebelled against our elders; didn't do us much good though.  I don't have to have respect merely on account of my age.  In fact, to you I'm just an internet poster, but I would like Michigan's football team to improve, probably  just like you.  I don't like what I'm seeing.

Thanks for the vehicle to explain my post.  Football aint THAT complicated; it's 11 guys in space trying to stop 11 other guys in space.  Be creative, be logical, be unpredictable, or be so much stronger than the other guys that it does not matter.

Indiana Blue

November 13th, 2013 at 2:06 PM ^

and his proclamation that he was "defending football" comment, as the Great All-Knowing sole voice of sanity to explain the "Borges Theory" (it's still only a theory, because it's never been proven) as he was defending the "indefensible" (aka - the PSU debacle).  I commented to SC - 

its obvious that you know your X's and O's and no one is challenging that.  However, there are a lot of head coaches and OC's and DC's that certainly have a much more thorough understanding than you.  That doesn't mean that "their" understanding makes them successful or even right.  Your defense of running the clock vs. playing an opponent in the PSU game ... is simply passe football.  Its old style ... I know, I'm old and I grew up with it.

To me coaches (any set of coaches) MUST know their team's strengths and weaknesses, and I believe most of us could agree on Michigan's weaker areas (/s).  Why plays are called that rely on our weak areas is the mystery to me.  If the Oline didn't do it in week 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 ... why would a rational person think that this is going to change in week 10?

To compound this, both Hoke and Borges has flatly refused to even give a hint that they are frustrated with anything other than execution.  This is akin to Michigan football's version of "The Emperor's New Clothes".

Go Blue!

 

 

 

itauditbill

November 13th, 2013 at 2:21 PM ^

Or another play.. it is the amalgamation of plays which confounds us. Agreed that if Kerridge does x, the play works.. .however we've not seen Kerridge do x. In practice one can only assume if practice is run at full speed with a competent defense on the other side that Kerridge still can't do x.

Therefore, if Kerridge never shows the ability to do x, or the offensive line never shows the ability to block in a certain manner, how in the name of footbawl (misspelling intended) can you run that play if you know it has zero chance of success. (I know if it's executed it will, I buy that in the first couple games of the season. Run it out there... ) Yet we've just finished game 9 of the season. 75% complete (regular season) Quick question to the football coaches out there: At the 75% point of the season do you know what it is your team can and can't do on a regular basis? (I think the answer is obvious, but hey I could be wrong)

If you do, how can Borges not know? Hmmm 8 guys in box.. important play... hmmm maybe I should throw scissors here? Since the defense has rolled out sheets of paper 50 ft by 50 ft..... nah let's throw rock.

Someone above noted that the team is slow, no tempo. Yet Hoke says we practice tempo. Well if one assumes they practice tempo as well as they practice inverted veer, one assumes that the tempo is turtle like in it's efficiency.

So what's the solution? Next year's offensive line will be different, more experienced in the middle, but younger on the ends. The backfield will be more experienced, but who will teach them how to block. Gardner will be more experienced, but with the way he's moving backwards will that be better? Arrggggg. This is how it felt to look at the defense of RichRod's teams. Sure they'll be more experienced but they're not better.  We all knew what the solution was then, but RichRod wouldn't make it. I think the same issue faces Hoke. We know what the solution is, will he make it... If he doesn't and the offense doesn't improve, or heaven forbid regresses further... next winter we'll see The Process II, Brandon's Last Stand.

aplatypus

November 13th, 2013 at 6:13 PM ^

early in the season Brian praised Kerridge.

He's also at times praised the rest of the offensive line and pointed out examples in the UFR's where they've done things right. Early in the year he pointed out Glasgow making rather advanced blocks. He pointed out Lewan and Schofield having no issues. So clearly the players can make those rudimentary blocks, and Brian himself pointed it out many times. But now that they blow those same simple assignments... FIRE BORGES.

sj

November 13th, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^

This has been world-class storm created at a time when we all would otherwise be trying not to think about Michigan football. We're at a lot of comments here!  Well done to Brian and SC.

More seriously, I wish Brian's tone had been a little different, but his larger point is fair: SC has taken over many, many threads explicity disagreeing with Brian's analyses without actually addressing their content. Brian has been very clear - his point is that the coaches are putting people in a position to not excute. SC responds - It's not the coaches, it's the execution. SC has been saying really interesting things, but I do think he's missing the point.

NiMRODPi

November 13th, 2013 at 2:40 PM ^

Here's what I learned Michigan must do offensively to be succesful:

1. They must run plays that are easier to execute

2. They also must be plays that defenses cannot make adjustments for, or complicate by trying to confuse us.

3. They must never allow the other team to blitz.

4. If the other team might blitz, Toussaint cannot be out there.

5. If the other team might blitz, Green cannot be out there.

6 . If Green/Toussaint are not out there, it must not be a tipped pass play.

7. All throws must come around 3 seconds after snap, to mitigate blitzes or just poor pass protection.

8 Our pass plays must not be predictable.

 

Okay... BREAK.!

Bluegoose

November 13th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^

everywhere I look mistakes and missed assignments are being made. Criticism of the OL, the QB, and the RB's is all warranted on offense. Little or no gain on 1st and 2nd downs results in 3rd and long and predictability and then failure. It happens over and over now. Crazy.

The defense is better, but sooner or later a freshmen DB is gonna get burned by being out of position or missing a tackle, or just finishing a play. Unfortunately very reminiscent of RR year 1. Yikes!

Does not seem to be getting any better. Double yikes! Doesn't make that bill for seat licenses for next year's tickets any easier to swallow.

1M1Ucla

November 13th, 2013 at 2:46 PM ^

I come at this from having played baseball at a high level and coached it at many levels.  I have many times found my self putting guys in situations where they have no chance of succeeding and left myself wondering what the heck happened.  Expecting a guy who hasn't hit a ball to the right side in his life to execute a hit-and-run with a ball to the right side isn't using any kind of decent sense.  Of course, I've done that and been sad at the outcome, often a strike-out-throw-out situation.  Other times, I've taken that same guy in the same situation and asked him to just bunt to get the ball on the ground somewhere so we can get the guy in scoring position. The guy succeeds, even though it comes from a non-optimum situation of giving up an out.  We get the other guy in scoring position without putting a failure around both guys necks and buggering the team's chances in the situation.

I spent some time running Alabama and Stanford plays back-and-forth this past weekend.  Neither team designs around long, slow plays, except to take advantage of a plus situation.  They line up, usually doubling the 1-tech, pulling a guy without letting him turn his shoulders from the line of scrimmage, block down with the tackle and tight end, kick out with the fullback and turn up with the pulling guard.  Nothing fancy.  If LSU or Oregon showed blitz, they checked into a pass that took less than 3 seconds to get out.  The check play varied from hitting a slant behind the blitzing Will and Mike (year, double A-gap, sometime with Will and Mike, sometimes the Will followed by the safety), sometimes a flare to the back, sometimes a check-down to the back leaking through the middle into the area vacated by the Will, sometimes (horror) a bubble screen to a slot as the slot cover guy backed up a bit due to the blitz, sometimes putting a man in motion into the slot to prevent a jam at the line of scrimmage and using the motion guy as the hot check man, sometimes using the motion man to set a pick for a crossing route from the X-guy, sometimes, well you get the picture.  Lots of options to screw the defense that committed itself to stuffing the run.  And they were simply competent at it.  No one was going to find guys out in space who were screaming downhill at and past them. These plays didn't go for 30 yards, they went for 6,7 or 8, or even 3, moving the ball and the chains.  If they got spoofed, they didn't allow it a second time.

In the first half of the Stanford game, running to the right they always pulled their guard 54 from the back around to the front for a lead through the hole created by tackle/tight end blocking down.  When they went left, they always zone-blocked it.  In the second half, they pulled the right guard going left, with the Oregon defense seeing the down blocks to the right for the first time all night and popped a couple good runs out of this adjustment.  Then they zoned to the right, flipping their first half tendency and catching Oregon thinking the line movement to the left on the down blocking meant zone left, and off they went looking for the ball where it wasn't going to go.  Another nice gain.  The blocks were all makeable, as Oregon played base and straight up the whole game, getting burned when they tried blitzing because the ball came out on the check so quickly.  It wasn't brilliant, it wasn't smoke and mirrors, it wasn't because the Stanford guys had a half-dozen 5th-year seniors in the line, it was simple and easy to execute. Their simplicity and design to adjust forced Oregon to try to play 'em straight which they were ill-suited to do.

Al doesn't do simple, he doesn't design to adjust and he doesn't put guys where they can succeed.  The Stanford blocking schemes don't ask a lot, and they didn't get pancakes on 6 guys on every play.  What they also did not do it to let themselves get outnumbered in the box and in gaps.

One other thing that is a trap for coaches, and I think Michigan has fallen into it -- that technique matters more than performance.  They get the details of making contact and driving -- I haven't seen many guys get defeated in their one-on-ones when they make contact.  They miss the point of setting guys to recognize the threat and defeat it.  I have fallen into this trap coaching pitchers and hitters, spending so much time on throwing and making good swings that I don't teach pitching and hitting.  You can look like a million bucks, but if you can't move the ball around and change speeds, you're going to get smacked around, and if you can't recognize that you are going to get a curveball away down 1-2 in the count, you're going to get fanned a lot.

gbdub

November 13th, 2013 at 2:48 PM ^

To me the problem is that Brian and SC aren't actually arguing against each other. SC looks at a play and says "here's how this should have gone down". This is good, enlightening, and appreciated.

However, Brian's actual argument is not "this play is turrrrrible and should never be called", it's "here's how the opponent gets to have a much easier job than the offense, and the number of times this happens is too damn high".

Brian says that, SC says "well yeah but if player X had made adjustment Y (see, it's totally simple and only takes 10 diagrams and a couple thousand words to explain), this would have worked". Then SC gets frustrated because rather than debate the content of those diagrams everyone wants to argue "big picture". Repeat ad nauseam.

THEY ARE BOTH RIGHT. SC is right or close to right about the minutiae, but Brian is arguing about the meta. There is no clash, which is why this goes back and forth.

To be fair, I found this a bit too snarky from Brian, and I don't think he gives enough credit to SC for ripping the coaches' inability to teach the kids how to play. But I guess I can see where the frustration is coming from.

I'd actually really like SC to devote a post/diary to "Here is what I think Borges is doing wrong, and here's what I would propose doing differently". He's hinted at a few things and I'm curious about his big picture view of what's broken. But he usually only gives that a quick glance (Brian's "few non-insane points") and then returns to basking in the blocking nuances. I like seeing that, but I'm never going to play competitive football and what I really want to see is smart people arguing about the big picture.

ca_prophet

November 13th, 2013 at 2:48 PM ^

Which is a shame, because the points are valid, and a writer with Brian's gifts could have made the points stand out better without the back-handed "at some totally different level" style slams.

My own opinion is that at this point, the ineptitude of the offense is a Rorshach test - everyone looks at it and sees their own biases confirmed.  Anyone who thinks we should be running the Air Raid or spread-to-run will look at this and say "see - if we just never called under-center formations we'd be so much better".  Anyone who thinks that up-tempo/NFL-style-K-gun-no-huddle is the future can see that reflected in our abject failure too.  And so on ...

 

PeterKlima

November 13th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

...it is Brian's blog and it's full of his followers. Plus, Brian recently trolled his own forum and seems to be taking this year personally (maybe it is his way of coping with losing his fan enthusiasm).

Not sure who would want to take, long pronounced stands against him, even if that person knew armored about football play-calling and technique.

greenphoenix

November 13th, 2013 at 3:02 PM ^

Let's look at it from a logic flow/debate flow perspective

Here is the core thing they are arguing about: 

Is the Michigan Offense a coherent system that can create yards? Pro/Con

1) SC is PRO. He is saying that in his opinion as a football coach, these schemes are sound, represent a coherent game plan, and that they are reasonable plays to execute, and that the coaches are failing to teach the kids how to execute them. 

The PRO position relies on arguments organized around a history of how these schemes work in the larger scope of a game plan, a history of defenses against these schemes, and an argument that proper execution of assignments would have worked in this model, particularly with a fullback.

In summary, proper execution of this scheme, given its history in the world of schemes of this kind against defenses of this kind, have worked in the past.

2) Brian is CON. He is saying that the schemes were doomed from the outset and it is unrealistic to expect them to get pulled off. 

The CON position relies mostly on examples of places where Michigan's offense has failed using similar schemes with different tweaks to what the backs were doing.

In summary, the scheme as a whole is flawed, which is why the players repeatedly fail to exeucte.

So far so good. Nice initial points made by each. 

Note that in both cases the coaches are letting their players down, just in different ways. 

But Brian is making three fallacies here in his arguments which undermine his position:

1) He is using an appeal to authority, basically saying "look high school coach--IF THAT'S WHAT YOU REALLY ARE--you don't know what you're talking about this is big boy Div I college ball and things are different here."

2) He is making a straw man argument, saying that SC is ignoring his initial position about scheme.

The first is just unfair; look, none of us are experts here but at least SC is putting his cards on the table about why he thinks what he thinks. For that to have less validity than Brian's study of film in UFR is a draw and we should let it go.

The second seems to be a misinterpretation of SC. SC spends almost three pages in his diary explaining why he thinks this play is the right one in this context. 

3) Which leads Brian to his most egregious fallacy in this post, which is a false cause example. Brian basically says, "well, here are three more plays that suck, therefore it's the OC's fault. QED." 

This argument does not prove that the OC has bad schemes. This proves that the play didn't work. This does not in point of fact address SC's arguments.

Brian may well be right. SC may well be right. But from a debate charting perspective, SC is pantsing Brian.

There are interesting things to say about scheme here. Brian may well be right. But he seems to be at a loss at how to respond to SC's core argument, which is that it's the right scheme in a larger body of work and traditions of effective work of this kind in the past.

gbdub

November 13th, 2013 at 3:20 PM ^

Quibble: Brian is not appealing to authority. He is (somewhat snarkily, as is his idiom) launching a pre-emptive strike against the appeal to authority.

There have been a number of posters (I'd say lately, but it's always been true to some degree) who rip into Brian for just being some guy who watches football and assume that because they played a little high school ball they have been inducted to some higher plane of football knowledge that precludes any disagreement from long-haired blogger types. Notably, SC is not in that camp, but they exist.

So rather than deal with the "well how can you disagree with SC, he's a coach" series of comments, Brian strikes with "Well yeah, he's a coach, but in a totally different context and level and neither of us has any actual ability to see into Borges' brain, so either we both have a right to argue about this or neither of us does".

Not an appeal to authority. Basically a mild ad hominem to prevent appeal to authority.

CompleteLunacy

November 13th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

an attempt to bring the other guy "down" to your level. 

Which bothers me, because I'd rather he do the opposite. He can reiterate to folks why his opinions should have as much value as SC's. It also bothers me because SC has openly admitted as such anyway...hearing it come from Brian sounds like an attack.

I'm more bothered when Brian says SC has to make "concessions to not seem totally insane". He's basically calling SC a clever crazy person! That's a worse attack.

And another example "the guys in the comments think that because Kerridge could hypothetically have made a play none of this goes back to the folks in charge."

This is a complete fabrication and misrepresentation to SC's views and many who tend to agree with him. SC has spent paragraphs explaining how it goes back to a coaching failure, and reiterated it many many times. (Unless Brian wasn't explicitly talking about SC...but even so, who are these "guys in the comments" he speaks of? The few of us who agree with Sc also generally agree that the coaches still shoulder most of the blame in the failures so far)

The FannMan

November 13th, 2013 at 4:44 PM ^

SC has not, from what I have seen, ever made that attack on Brian. However, Brian goes out of his way to counter the argument that was not being made. In doing so, he seems defensive and overly snarky to me. IMHO, He would have been better just ignoring the diary.

gbdub

November 13th, 2013 at 6:28 PM ^

Well I don't think this post was only directed at SC. See in this very comment thread how the "Brian is just a guy that watches football" thing comes up.

I wasn't a big fan of the tone, and I do think Brian failed to acknowledge some of SC et al's acknowledgement of failure by the coaches.

Still, I can see how Brian could get that way since he's trying to argue big picture since the structure of the SC diary is basically "here's a ton of words about why this could have worked and there is therefore nothing wrong with trying it". Enlightening, sure, but by the 100th time that comes up you'd hope SC would start at least acknowledging how Brian might come to the conclusion that we seem to have a ton of not so good plays being run.

The FannMan

November 13th, 2013 at 7:49 PM ^

Brian directed that post clearly at Space Coyote.  I just think was incredibly defensive to defend himself against an argument SC wasn't making.  I wonder why he is so sensative about it.

Your last paragraph really has me puzzeled.  Why can't Brian, after 100s of posts about why Hoke should be fired, acknowledge that Space Coyote has a point too?  Or is it just that the group-think must be honored?

1M1Ucla

November 13th, 2013 at 3:32 PM ^

the appeal to authority, well, I haven't seen that one.

However, what you call Brian's straw man isn't that.  He has posed the issue and SC has failed to respond to it, responding to a different issue around individual execution.  The issue Brian has posed is whether the guys have been put in positions to succeed, and he has provided numerous examples.  SC, rather than address that issue, says it doesn't matter, the guys aren't executing their techniques.  The ignorantio elenchii fallacy is SC's.

Re the fallacy of false cause, I think you have the taxonomy wrong.  False cause is confusing correlation with causation.  I think what you were looking for is a dicto simliciter ad dictum secundum quid, or the fallacy of accident.  However, to attack the number of examples is to ignore Brian's point that he used a few of many in this citation on which he will continue to elaborate.

Rather than getting pantsed, I seems to me that Brian is making cogent and supported arguments which the Ol' Coyote is just ignoring and restating his position on technique over and over.  He has only recently even relented that the techniques being taught are not sinking in for reasons related to the coaching, as it is less likely that 4, 5 or 6 guys at this level of athletics are all athletically incompetent.

Two historically poor offensive showings with a number of key individual cases of inadequate response to demonstrated threats to planned plays in the absence of historically poor athletes playing the positions says something else is likely happening.  These aren't the 3, 4 or 5 worst offensive linemen in the history of Michigan football, and they aren't the 3, 4 or 5 worst this year in all of the FBS.  However, the offensive performances in these past two games plus are in that range.  Ninety eight plays for lost yardage LEADS the FBS.

Sumpin's wrong, Rucy -- there's some splainin' to do!

greenphoenix

November 13th, 2013 at 3:53 PM ^

I will go off and ponder this. My latin is nonexistent so I can't use the terms you are using but you'll probably be familiar with the colloquial terms so I won't worry about it overmuch.

I would argue that it remains false cause and not fallacy of accident because Brian correlates the problems (run game sucks) and then argues causality (scheme), whereas all that is being proven is that the run game sucks multiple times. fallacy of accident would be "well, they were just really unlucky all those times" which I am certainly not saying. Something is definitely wrong with this offense.

I would argue that SC avoids false cause because he demonstrates the soundness of an initial offensive premise through example and explanation, and then shows how it doesn't work. He may be making other errors - no true scotsman is the most likely one. But in the scope of this flow of our "debate" nobody has said to SC "that's not a real offensive set" or "that offensive set is a unicorn beast that nobody uses because it's ridiculous", so I didn't consider it. Maybe they are unicorn formations, I don't know.

We are agreed on wrongness in the offense; to me this is just a discussion of how the alchemy of coaching, scheme, teaching, and personnel may be affecting it.

Fun talk!

aplatypus

November 13th, 2013 at 3:05 PM ^

I keep seeing that refrain mentioned here. That the coach has to play to his team's strengths and "put the players in the best place to succeed." but rarely is there a constructive alternative mentioned beyond "FIRE BORGES!" 

Is the solution to go full on Air Raid Spread and have Devin throw it 50+ times a game? We'd probably score more points so that's something. Oh sure, we'd also probably set the single season turnover and sacks allowed records as well, but who cares about that? If we win more games then it would be worth it; but I doubt that would be the result. Devin would probably get hurt frequently too, because that's what happened when the offense had to rely on Denard, but to a fanbase I guess wins are wins.

 

I also see many people mention playcalling schemes, saying how repetitive we are and how often we try plays that obviously can't work because of our players. Again rarely are there alternatives, but there are a few here that tend to be "more quick screens and passes." Those are fine, and the screen can work wonders if an aggressive defense is rushing right up your gut. But I've seen many, many "quick passes" from DG either go right to the defense for an interception or a very near pick. His quick reads are usually lacking. And most often, he's made up his mind pre-snap where he thinks he can throw it. The worst part is that when those plays go bad, they go very bad, usually a score for the other team. I've seen in this year Borges try spread tactics in vain, then try manbawl in vain, then try new things in vain, then go back to the simplest things he can come up with.. in vain. This has been repeated, but if he goes simple, people get mad at the predictability. If he goes complex or spread, people complain that he's changing things and not devoting practice time to it. I guess such is life as the offensive coordinator at Michigan where even you score 40 every game a large portion of the fanbase will hate you regardless, but damn. A clear example that he is trying new things to get players where they can succeed is putting Funchess on the outside. If Borges were as stubborn as some would like to believe, we'd still have Funchess and AJ Williams lined up together, hands in the ground trying to block.

 

The next frequent complaint is at the line adjustments. I don't think anyone, even SC, defends the lack of these. I would guess it comes down to 1 of 3 things. 

1) Borges doesn't allow DG to make audibles

2) DG is allowed but doesn't like to

3) DG makes a few, but not always good ones and they're discouraged.

I'd lean towards 3, maybe 1. I've seen Gardner make numerous line shifts and blocking adjustments at the line. These are almost always wrong. Especially in the last couple of weeks when he liked to shift his line away from a pass rusher and ask the RB to cross by himself and block that DE. It never worked. That coupled with the fact that Gardner rarely makes a read beyond "Gallon check, Funchess check, then 1)throw to one of them 2)wait and get sacked or 3)PANIC TURN AROUND AND RUN" makes me think Borges tries to keep it simple for Gardner to reduce mistakes (isn't that what we wanted before?) and that leads to lining up and running the called play even if the defense is set up for it. Maybe if Gardner does more at the line we can make adjustments that succeed; maybe if he does there are even more blown assignments because it's changed and there are even more mindboggling throws to the wrong team because he locked in on Gallon. 

 

Lastly, as a new person here the thing between Brian and SC seems silly (and because despite disagreeing I've yet to see SC make passive aggressive jabs at Brian). It seems like they rarely disagree on the root problem (SC said like 59948 times he thinks coaching is at fault) it's just that SC acknowledges execution IS a real problem and that infuriates Brian for some reason. I think they just have slightly different conclusions, where Brian's is to blame everything that goes wrong solely on Borges and SC tries to distribute it more equally (and IMHO realistically). Both are fine and well defended opinions, it shouldn't make either person or side mad, though.

1M1Ucla

November 13th, 2013 at 3:43 PM ^

is for the pre-snap check to be called from the sideline.

Michigan spends a ton of time in the huddle and is relying on a guy getting his, what, 15th college start after no previous training in the system to make great adjustments with less than a 5-second pre-snap read.

Why not rely on the guy in the box with his 35 or whatever years of experience rather than a young guy with less than one?

Nearly everyone Michigan faces looks for a call from the sideline.  Bama does it some with their very experienced guy.  Stanford did it when I saw them last week.

Get a play called, get out of the huddle, let the D see your alignment and react, then look for help from the most experienced offensive guy in your program, rather than one of the least.

 

umumum

November 13th, 2013 at 3:18 PM ^

if Space Coyote is a pessimist or an optimist.  Based on the performances the past few weeks--and the limitations of our young young (add more youngs) offensive line--does he believe things will get better yet this year (optimism)--despite the downward arc?  Or does he believe we are doomed for the year (pessimism)?  Though it might be both--doomed this year, but roses next year--if we just continue to plug away at the scheme.  I suspect its the latter.  I'm just skeptical another year is going to fix everything that couldn't be taught/implemented this past Winter, Summer and Fall.

akim

November 13th, 2013 at 3:29 PM ^

I think SC made a reasonable argument for the play he countered, but I think the greater point is the one that Brian has here where, even if you think that one play was almost okay, there were a lot of other plays that flat out didn't work (running into a wall of defenders) that were just thrown away, and the ones that did work didn't come easy.

Coaches/Managers need to put their people in the best position to succeed and I really don't think that is happening here.

M79

November 13th, 2013 at 3:36 PM ^

Much easier I guess to look at still photos of plays...let's take them one at a time...I don't understand why audibles cannot be used to keep people honest. I am not a student of the game, but these are questions at least to my casual eye.

1. Iso - 7.5 in the box, slot LB not honestly playing Funchess. Either a quick throw to Funch or fake to Kerridge who attacks the LB and use swing pass to Fitz...why run against 8 in the box? It was 1st and ten, and we hear Al talk about unfavorable down and distance stuff all the time. I like Funch 1 on 1...

2. Zone play...we really have nothing to change the formation and change the defensive alignment? Split backs? Gun? Pistol? Anything? Slip middle screen?

3. Power play...against 8 in the box.  Same alignment for us, pretty much same alignment for them. idk who missed the assignment, but outnumbered anyway. Again, no chance for audible? Bring Kerridge and Fitz backside instead? Fake to Kerridge and pitch? Any variety at all?

4. Pants - 8 in the box again...another slow developing play that allows the defense to make its key reads and react before we even get moving. Even straight ahead blocking with penning in the box to get around it might work...we don't seem to do anything to keep them honest.

What are Gardner's keys on these plays? Does he not have any flexibility?