the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
The Path
Filed under:
Yes, please.
With Indiana out of the way, Michigan has now reached a certain point in their season. Every game is The Most Important Game Of The Season until it's over, at which point it just makes the next one The New Most Important Game Of The Season. So, what will it take to make the NCAA Tournament? Let's look at the numbers in comparison to the last two Michigan teams.
| Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 2008-09 | 2009-10 | 2010-11 |
| Record | 20-13 | 15-17 | 16-10 |
| Kenpom/ SOS | 50/17 | 63/12 | 55/12 |
| RPI/SOS | 44/11 | 131/54 | 58/20 |
| Conf Strength (Kenpom) | 5th | 4th | 1st |
| Big Ten Tourney Teams | 7 | 5 | ??? |
| Conf Record | 9-9 | 7-11 | 6-7 |
| Conf Standing | t-7th | t-7th | t-6th |
| NCAA Seed | 10 | FAIL | ??? |
This team has a lot more in common with the 10-seed of 2009 than the squad that didn't even make the NIT last season, but it's still a bit worse. With a 3-2 close to the regular season (no small feat), the numbers should be approximately equal to the Tournament squad, though the Big Ten is much tougher this year than it has been in either of the past two seasons. However, the 2009 team had signature non-conference wins against UCLA (a 6-seed) and Duke (a 2-seed). This year's team has beaten Clemson, Harvard, and Oakland. All three are likely to make the tournament - assuming Harvard exacts revenge on Princeton for their only Ivy League loss - but not as top seeds.
Let's look at some teams from last year that 1) had similar profiles to 201-11 Michigan, and 2) made the tournament. For the purposes of this exercise, only at-large teams from strong conferences are relevant. I've plucked a couple comparable teams from last year's tourney field. For the most part, these were the lowest-seeded teams from their respective conferences.
| 2010 NCAA Tournament | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Georgia Tech | Missouri | Louisville | Minnesota | Florida |
| Record | 23-12 | 22-10 | 20-12 | 21-13 | 21-12 |
| Kenpom/ SOS | 27/5 | 19/47 | 43/23 | 32/38 | 45/56 |
| RPI/SOS | 33/13 | 44/47 | 37/7 | 62/37 | 56/36 |
| Conf Strength (Kenpom) | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| Conf Tourney Teams | 6 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| Conf Record | 7-9 | 10-6 | 11-7 | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Conf Standing | 7th | 5th | t-5th | 6th | t-4th |
| NCAA Seed | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
A couple notes:
- Georgia Tech was terrible in conference, but had good Kenpom and RPI numbers (they got into the tourney over 10-6 ACC Virginia Tech because the Hokies played a terrible non-conference schedule).
- MIssouri was by far the strongest team to Kenpom. They also had the fewest losses. However, they were one of only two teams to lose in the first round of their conference tournament.
- Louisville is the other first-round loser in their conference tournament. Their strength of schedule and decent finish in the Big East (a 16-team conference) got them in.
- Minnesota is probably the most comparable to Michigan this year. They have the most losses of any of these teams, but played their way into the tournament by reaching the Big 10 final.
- Florida played in the weakest conference of any of these teams, with the worst Kenpom and RPI numbers (taking strength of schedule into account). However, a winning record - and committee guilt about only three SEC teams getting in - helped them make the tournament.
Player Psyche
Though they don't want to admit it--Tim Hardaway's epic coachspeak: "Make sure we take it one game at a time. The next game is the most important game."--the players are aware of the opportunity in front of them. The question becomes whether they'll rise to the challenge, as they did two years ago. or fold under the pressure. Here are a few other player quotes about looking to the Tournament:
- Stu Douglass, on whether the team has the tournament in the back of their minds: "We've said it out loud in the locker room. There's no hiding from it."
- Darius Morris, on the team's change after the MSU game: "From there on, we knew what kind of intensity we need to have."
- Darius Morris, on whether the team has talked about making the tournament: "You've gotta visualize your success before it can happen."
- Zack Novak, on watching other Big Ten games on TV: "If I'm watching, I kinda just watch as a fan... I think you usually know what team you need to win to help you out a little bit."
It seems like the team is determined to keep the NCAA Tournament run in the corner of their eye, but in order to achieve it, is focused on the old coaching cliche of "one game at a time."
What does it Mean?
If Michigan goes 3-2 over their final five games - as we'll see, that's no guarantee - their numbers should be comparable to their tournament team of a couple years ago, or Minnesota last year. However, they're doing it in a much stronger Big Ten. It's Kenpom's #1 conference; the past two years it was 5th and 4th. Reaching .500 in conference should land them around 6th, and going 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament would likely be good enough to get into the tournament unless other results break against them, especially since there are three additional slots this year.
| Big Ten | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | Kenpom | RPI |
| The Untouchables | |||
| Ohio State | 24-1 (11-1) | 1 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 19-5 (9-3) | 6 | 17 |
| Purdue | 20-5 (9-3) | 8 | 12 |
| The Bubble | |||
| Illinois | 16-9 (6-6) | 18 | 34 |
| Michigan State | 14-10 (6-6) | 48 | 48 |
| Minnesota | 17-8 (6-7) | 38 | 37 |
| Penn State | 13-11 (6-7) | 52 | 70 |
| Michigan | 16-10 (6-7) | 55 | 58 |
| The Bottom | |||
| Northwestern | 14-10 (4-9) | 64 | 82 |
| Indiana | 12-14 (3-10) | 66 | 159 |
| Iowa | 10-15 (3-10) | 84 | 147 |
That means your rooting interests are as follows:
- You want Michigan to win out (obviously). If they go better than 3-2 in their final five, I think they're a lock. Kempom predicts a win only in the season finale against Michigan State. He gives Michigan less than 25% chance of going 9-9 or better in conference (3-2 or better over the final 5 games).
- Cheer for all of Michigan's non-conference opponents. Bowling Green has a chance to win the MAC, Syracuse can win the Big East, UTEP can win Conference USA, Clemson can win the ACC(!), Harvard should win the Ivy League, and Oakland should win the Summit League. You want very badly for all of this to happen.
- In the Big Ten, cheer against the teams in Michigan's tier (see handy graphic at right), so the Wolverines finish as high in the standings as possible. This means pull against Illinois, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Penn State probably doesn't have a chance to make the tournament unless they win the Big Ten Tournament, but you still don't want them to finish ahead of Michigan.
- Also in the Big Ten, cheer against Purdue and Illinois, since those are the teams Michigan played once. When they play each other (as they did yesterday and will again on March 1st), you want Purdue to win, because of the above point.
Get rootin'.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:12 PM | 
The Big 10 may have been
The Big 10 may have been
February 14th, 2011 at 4:38 PM |
The committee definitely pays
The committee definitely pays
The committee definitely pays more attention to RPI than Kenpom. The only reason I didn't include historical conference strength in RPI terms is because that information wasn't readily available at the source I used.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:19 PM |
Unless we beat Illinois
Unless we beat Illinois
Then wouldn't we want Illinois to beat Purdue because it would give us a huge road win in RPI?
February 14th, 2011 at 4:22 PM |
Nope. Purdue will be in no
Nope. Purdue will be in no
Nope. Purdue will be in no matter what. Illinois is not a lock but has probably the best resume of the middle of the road Big 10 teams. Anything that can be done to knock them down some pegs is helpful, as they could very well be occupying a spot that could go to us.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:29 PM |
Not sure on that
Not sure on that
I think Illinois will be in before Michigan assuming most things hold as normal. To me, Minnesota and/or MSU are the teams we are going closest against for the last B10 spot.
The B10 will get at least five into the Dance, IMO: the top three, then probably Illinois and then 1-2 of Minny, Michigan, and MSU. Therefore, I do think an Illini win over Purdue would help, but only if we beat Illinois this week. Lose, and we definitely root for Purdue.
Then again, I have no real idea.
"The difference between a man and a boy is, a boy wants to grow up to be a fireman, but a man wants to grow up to be a giant monster fireman."
- Jack Handey
February 14th, 2011 at 4:29 PM |
Doesn't this assume
Doesn't this assume
that the Committee goes into the room thinking "we will take no less than X number of Big 10 teams and no more than Y number of big 10 teams?"
I get the point, but there are enough teams fighting for the bubble that I'd rather root for things that make our wins look better than root for teams we beat to struggle so that they'll fall off the bubble.
There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:33 PM |
You're right. Let me
You're right. Let me
You're right. Let me rephrase.
If we beat Illinois and they keep winning then it looks better for us. But I think their resume is good enough that even if they do go south in the last few games, they won't fall far enough to make the win unimpressive, but it could also nudge us ahead of them. I'd rather err on the latter side of that because that's one at-large bid that could go our way instead of another.
That's more what I was getting at, I just phrased it horribly.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:47 PM |
I agree in principle
I agree in principle
but they have 2 huge wins over Wisconsin and UNC, and their RPI is something like 20 spots ahead of ours right now. They'd have to really crater for our resume to look better than theirs. Given that, I'd rather beat them and then have them go on a tear.
There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:51 PM |
Well, they do still have
Well, they do still have
Well, they do still have @OSU, @MSU, @Purdue. Losing those 3 and to us would put them at 10 losses.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:39 PM |
Yes and no.
Yes and no.
You are correct that it would look better for us if we beat a better ILL team (but that's a moot point if we lose to ILL anyway), but it will also make our loss to PU look worse by the same increment, so it might be a wash anyway. But if the knock on us is that we don't have any marquee wins, then we should want ILL to beat PU. If we beat ILL and they lost to PU, they would likely finish 8-10 in the big ten and would be on the outside looking in, which wouldn't help our profile.
As for rooting against big ten bubble teams, we are competing with lots of bubble teams, not just the big ten teams. It's no more beneficial for big ten bubble teams to stumble than all the other bubble teams in the country. There are 68 spots for all teams, not some magic # for big ten teams.
A better reason to cheer against ILL is Tim's point that we only play them once, but we played all the other teams they play from here on out (except for PU) twice. So it's better for the teams we played twice to look better.
We'll know more about our rooting interests after Wednesday anyway. If we lose to ILL, it's better that they do poorly the rest of the way.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:48 PM |
The official line is that
The official line is that
The official line is that there's no quota for any conference, but if the committee looks at a draft bracket and says "hmmm, we only have 4 (or 5) teams from the strongest conference," they're at least going to re-think it.
But yes, I should have included that we're cheering against any team right on or near the bubble (and down the road, cheering for the favorites in conference tournaments).
February 14th, 2011 at 4:37 PM |
Here's the thing...
Here's the thing...
I completely agree that 3-2 and 1 B10 tourney win gets us in. Obviously, beating Minn/Ill/MSU would be huge, but I don't think the above scenario as likely. I figured it was a 30% chance or so (you noted Kenpom as 25% oddly enough). I don't think we are beating Wisconsin, though obviously that would help as signature win. Win at Iowa is absolute must with the sked that remains.
I could see us collapsing at this point and going 1-4 or winless in truth...but that's what is funny about this team, you can also see them pulling off wins in any of the remaining games if they play up to their potential (and in some cases, the other teams do not). Still, I think its remarkable that we are even able to think/discuss a possible NCAA bid - with the way this team looked in the off-season and the way we looked in the early stages of B10 play. So, hats off and let's hope they can somehow get into the dance. We'll see. #goblue
Hail to the Victors! #GOBLUE
February 14th, 2011 at 4:48 PM |
Assuming we finish 9-9
Assuming we finish 9-9
PSU has two pretty much guaranteed losses @Wisconsin and vs OSU. That means the best they could do is 9-9. They still have to play @NW and two games against Minnesota. If PSU manages 3 wins out of this, I'd be impressed. Plus, we have the head-to-head, so they need 4 to pass us in the standings.
Illinois has to play @OSU, @MSU, and @Purdue. If we beat them, we have the head-to-head and they are going to be hard-pressed to win one, let alone two, of these games to pass us in the B1G standings.
MSU still has to play @OSU, @Minn, Purdue, Ill. If we beat them, we have the head-to-head and they need to win 3 of these 4 to pass us in the standings.
Minn has probably the easiest schedule. 2 games against PSU, @NW, and MSU. I'd like to think that they lose at least one of those four. If we beat them, the tiebreaker will be if we beat Wisconsin.
Let's say:
- Teams on the bubble lose to the untouchables and beat the bottom
- Teams on the bubble that play each other twice split
- PSU finishes 8-10
- Minn is 8-8 pending Michigan and MSU
- MSU is 7-8 pending @Minn, Ill, and @Michigan
- Ill is 8-8 pending Michigan and @MSU
- Michigan is 7-8 pending @Ill, @Minn, and MSU
Beating any of those teams that we have to play gives them their 9th loss. We've already said that beating MSU or Ill gives us the head-to-head, so those are the ones that we want to win. That would put is in 5th place with a first round matchup against Minn. Beating Minn and losing to one of the other two gets us into 6th place against Iowa/Indiana followed by Purdue/Wisconsin.
I'd prefer a matchup against Minnesota, as I think we can beat them, and it would be a quality win against a probable tournament team. Although, if you assume a win once in the top 8, Indiana and Purdue would definitely be preferable.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:16 PM |
odd, but true
odd, but true
Normally it's better to avoid "road" games in the tournament, but in this case, 4th and 5th aren't any good because that means only one game prior to facing OSU. (All tournament predictions assume that no team takes the Knight Approach.) 6th would be great because it means the 11th-place team followed by a more-winnable quarterfinal than would be present after the 8/9 game. 7th isn't bad for the same reason, although it obviously draws the 2 instead of the 3, and it's likely that the 2 will be a team finishing strong rather than a team limping into the tournament.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:55 PM |
posted from iPhone
posted from iPhone
I think if it comes down to UM or MSU, the committee will pick MSU in a heartbeat. Not only are they the bigger name in bball, but nobody wants to be the guys who ended Izzo's tourney streak unless it is just impossible not to. That's why 3-2 with a win against Sparty is essential for even a chance. Also, no big upsets for bubble teams would be huge.
February 14th, 2011 at 6:35 PM |
Got me. Stupid iPhone typing
Got me. Stupid iPhone typing
Got me. Stupid iPhone typing screen!
February 14th, 2011 at 5:04 PM |
MSU probably has the more
MSU probably has the more
MSU probably has the more impressive resume at this point, but they also have a tougher schedule to finish the season. If we manage to beat them at Crisler, and finish at least a game ahead of them in-conference, I don't see any way they can be in over us.
February 14th, 2011 at 6:45 PM |
See, I'm not that impressed
See, I'm not that impressed
See, I'm not that impressed by their schedule. They played a tough OOC schedule yes, but they also lost virtually all of the tough games (same as UM). Their biggest win is the upset of Wisconsin at home, but beyond that they are basically a win over a meh Washington team early in the season and little else. If UM sweeps them this year and finishes close in record, then I'm hoping UM gets the nod over state if either is on the bubble. But I have this stinking suspicion that Izzo's name will carry quite a bit of weight with the decision-makers and might swing the vote a bit. Of course, if UM pulls off the upset against Wiscy, then I think they're in if they finish with 18 wins or more plus a win in the B10 tournament.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:30 PM |
MSU schedule
MSU schedule
UConn, Texas, Washington, Duke, Syracuse and other top Big 10 teams like OSU, Wisconsin and Purdue.
Not impressed with their schedule? lol wut?
February 15th, 2011 at 8:27 AM |
I think the main point he was
I think the main point he was
I think the main point he was making was that MSU lost to all of those teams except Washington. It's one thing to play a lot of good teams, but you have to beat them occasionally too.
February 15th, 2011 at 10:34 AM |
One thing to say that
One thing to say that
MSU didn't beat all of the tough teams except for Washington. Another thing to say that you're not impressed by the schedule. Two totally different things.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:58 PM |
Although Clemson is currently
Although Clemson is currently
Although Clemson is currently our only true quality win, they have to see the fact that we took RPI #1 Kansas to overtime. There's no way they can entirely disregard this tidbit of information.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:06 PM |
Actually Clemson isn't the
Actually Clemson isn't the
Actually Clemson isn't the most impressive. We have wins against 4 opponents with better RPI's and Harvard is the biggest one.
Which speaks to what will likely be the biggest hindrance to an NCAA bid. 0-6 against RPI Top 25, 1-7 against the Top 50. That hurts. We don't have really have any marquee wins on our schedule. While it's unlikely, if we could make Wisky one of the 3 wins we absolutely need in regular season, that would help us a lot.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:13 PM |
well then according to mark
well then according to mark
well then according to mark snyder, we should throw the game against Illinois. if they beat us they have a better chance of being an RPI top 25, but if we beat them, there's no way, so we won't be able to get an RPI top 25 win.
ahhhh....the freep w/ its tortured logic and know-nothings.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:28 PM |
I actually think our
I actually think our
I actually think our tournament hopes rest on the outcome of the upcoming Wisconsin game. Wisconsin has struggled at times this year on the road, and we have been playing great at home lately. Given that this is a seemingly winnable game against a quality opponent down the stretch, I think a victory here would go a long way towards shifting us to the front of the bubble teams. We obviously would still have to pull games out against Minny and MSU, but with the way we've been playing lately, these games don't seem as problematic as they once did.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:13 PM |
more true than you think
more true than you think
We desperately need a win against a top 25 RPI team, and Wisconsin gives us that golden opportunity, much like Purdue did in 2009. 1-7 against the top 50 is the elephant in the room. If we can improve that number with a win against wiscy and msu/minny I think that would be the best scenario.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:28 PM |
Clemson is
Clemson is
#73 in RPI and they aren't considered to be a quality win for Michigan.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:57 PM |
In all honesty, I'd prefer to
In all honesty, I'd prefer to
In all honesty, I'd prefer to finish 6th in the Big Ten than 5th. May seem crazy, but I like the opportunity to beat Indiana or Iowa in the first round to get ourselves another win. 5th seed could potentially mean 0-1 in the Big Ten tourney versus 1-1.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:11 PM |
No way. Beating a bottom
No way. Beating a bottom
No way. Beating a bottom feeder does nothing and losing to one kills us. And then we'd have to play Purdue or Wisconsin, probable loss.
If we're 5, our first game is against Illinois who is much more beatable. Then we'd play OSU, who we've played tough and would make our SOS much better.
We're looking for quality wins, and UI does that.
February 14th, 2011 at 6:33 PM |
Agreed. We are going to have
Agreed. We are going to have
Agreed. We are going to have to beat Illinois at some point. If we don't beat them on Wednesday, we probably need to beat them in the tournament. Either that or we have to play a much tougher team to get the same effect. There is no way that Illinois is not the 4 or 5 seed after beating us unless they lose to Iowa or Indiana at home.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:26 PM |
Losing to anyone in the first BTT game kills us
Losing to anyone in the first BTT game kills us
so that doesn't really make much difference. Beating a bottom-feeder doesn't help the RPI as much as beating #4, although I think Minnesota has a better shot at that position than Illinois.
I'm not sure that a single lower-quality RPI win will make that much of a difference, and I definitely don't think that OSU is an easier out than Wisconsin ... Purdue might get a bit of a boost from the "home" crowd, but I still think they'd be an easier opponent than OSU. And that's the kind of quality win that would make a difference at the end, a win over a top-10ish team.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:01 PM |
Root against MSU?
Root against MSU?
Really? Do we have to? Oh, all right...
February 14th, 2011 at 5:03 PM |
I'd also like to point out
I'd also like to point out
I'd also like to point out that beating Illinois would put our chance of winning over 50% even without kenpom adjusting for the win. The adjustment would also make Iowa a probable win and could potentially make MSU a near lock in kenpom's eyes.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:32 PM |
Beating Illinois at Assembly
Beating Illinois at Assembly
Beating Illinois at Assembly Hall is a pretty tall order, though. I think we have a better chance of beating Wiscy at Crisler than we do of beating Illinois on the road.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:53 PM |
I know. We have a 16% chance
I know. We have a 16% chance
I know. We have a 16% chance of winning that game according to kenpom. It's our hardest game, so that's why winning it turns us into a probable 9-9 team.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:12 PM |
Thanks for the writeup Tim.
Thanks for the writeup Tim.
Thanks for the writeup Tim. Good to see where we stand.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:19 PM |
Does the committee take into
Does the committee take into
Does the committee take into account close losses against top teams?
February 14th, 2011 at 5:34 PM |
No
No
They've got too many teams around the country to pay attention to to take moral victories into account. But they will take note of our schedule strength.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:54 PM |
Close losses are one thing.
Close losses are one thing.
Close losses are one thing. You'd have to think that overtime losses are another though.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:06 PM |
SOS
SOS
Strength of schedule is what the committee takes into account, as much as it hurts the OT loss doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:29 PM |
The team needs to take one
The team needs to take one
The team needs to take one game at a time to heart. Seems like they have according to the comments they have made. The team has the potential to do very well and has to remember that at all times during the next games.
Here's hoping for a bright future. This team does try hard and I will continue to support them.
February 14th, 2011 at 5:42 PM |
Nice post
Nice post
19 wins and we are in.
Kyrie Smith
February 14th, 2011 at 5:44 PM |
latest bracketology chat
latest bracketology chat
latest bracketology chat (because we're not mentioned in bracketology at all):
Bill (Ann Arbor)
How close is Michigan to an at-large bid? Would a win at Illinois Wednesday get them consideration in your next projection?
Joe Lunardi (4:37 PM)
Yes.
-------------------------------------------------
Mike (Louisiana)
Where is Michigan Joe??...16-10 overall and #20 SOS with key road wins..what do they have to do Joe 9-9 in conference and a win in the BTT or 10-8 in conference and a win in the BTT what do they need to do please help me understand??
Joe Lunardi (4:39 PM)
Does everyone lobbying for Michigan realize they are 6-7 in the Big Ten and 0-6 against the RPI Top 25? Not happening, people.
-------------------------------------------------
For my privacy, my new username is "non-Oriental non-Andrew"
February 14th, 2011 at 5:53 PM |
Doesn't mean a lot what the
Doesn't mean a lot what the
Doesn't mean a lot what the gurus say right now. Still a month until Selection Sunday. There's a variance right now depending on whether they're solely taking current resume in to account or whether they're factoring in potential future results. Our resume has the potential to improve but it doesn't look too good right now.
Case remains, we need to win games. Iowa is a must-win, and we need 2-3 of the other 4 games plus probably a conference tournament win.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:23 PM |
Yeah, but we're at least discussing
Yeah, but we're at least discussing
I agree that it's early to get excited, but it's nice to even be arguing about it. I was just hoping we'd be developing for 2012 and a nice sendoff for Zach and Stu, but there's a legit chance now.
FWIW, I think Lunardi had us out most of 2009, and we're not even on his 8 teams that our out.
FWIW2, crashingthedance.com has us 5th out (don't know how to link to it, but it's on the "at-large selection" tab. Again, glad to be on the alternate list for "the dance" when months ago I thought we'd be hoping to play spoiler.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:36 PM |
Bracketology101 has us as the
Bracketology101 has us as the
Bracketology101 has us as the first out right now. Meanwhile guys like Lunardi don't even have us on the radar screen. That's what I'm getting at. Nothing wrong with discussion but there's far too many games to be played before actually listening to the talking heads.
February 16th, 2011 at 2:42 PM |
Big game tonight
Big game tonight
A win tonight should definitely put us closer to the "in" column. CTD is discussing us. Again, doesn't mean we're in [spoiler: they agree for now], but it's better than being a team that's just developing.
http://blog.crashingthedance.com/2011/02/in-or-out-michigan.html
February 14th, 2011 at 5:55 PM |
The first response gives me
The first response gives me
The first response gives me hope about 9-9 possibly being good enough. I'm not sure what was going on with the second question and response. I'm looking forward to bubble watch coming out on ESPN in addition to bracketology.
Here's hoping for a bright future. This team does try hard and I will continue to support them.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:29 PM |
Yeah, I didn't get that either
Yeah, I didn't get that either
It's like the first response was "Yes, a win over Illinois gets them consideration" and the second response was "No, they're not going to get consideration."
But then that probably happens a lot in chats ... people end up answering basically the same question two or three different ways.
February 14th, 2011 at 6:00 PM |
Don't be so sure about harvard
Don't be so sure about harvard
Thye'd have to beat Princeton -- currently 20-4 or something -- in a couple of weeks, and probably beat them again in a tie-breaker (or hope for a rare 2nd Ivy bid).
Also, except for when we pay against them, don't we want psu, state, and minny to win, so that they can show up as top-50 rpi teams?
the 5th toughest conference in 2008-2009 according to Kenpom, but it was #2 in conference RPI, and I'm guessing the Committee pays a lot more attention to RPI than it does to Kenpom.
Given the lack of huge wins (argh close calls), I still think their tournament hopes are pretty dicey if they go 3-2 unless they beat Wisky or MSU goes on a tear down the stretch.
There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.