Out Of Several Left Fields: Duncan Robinson
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Via Chris Balas, here's a new, crazy name for Michigan's SG spot in the 2016 class: Duncan Robinson, who spent last year at D-III Williams College. It sounds like this is escalating quickly, to the point where a visit that starts Monday is likely to see him commit:
"Coach Beilein said once I get on campus, they have a scholarship open that I should have one. That's exciting, kind of a dream come true. Hopefully that all works out. Coach Maker is excited for me - he said he would have recruited me at West Virginia or if he had gone with Coach Beilein to Michigan. He definitely believes in me, and I believe in him as a coach."
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So, like, brace yourself. There will be some caterwauling on your message board of choice because what about Jalen Coleman. And I feel that too, a bit.
Only a bit, though. The 6'7" Robinson hit 45% of a lot of threes and is looking to transfer after his coach moved on, with the usual suspects sniffing around. Along with Michigan, Creighton and Davidson are involved. That is a who's who of Shoot It Shoot The J programs. Meanwhile Williams's coach is a former Beilein assistant who runs all of the same stuff Michigan does. Last year was an apprenticeship.
UMHoops already has video of him last year:
And… yeah, doesn't most of that translate to D-I? I mean that on the block fadeaway is a Stauskas move and the various moving three pointers are un-checkable at any level. If this was a high school reel we'd all be like "yes please."
So why is he in D-III? Apparently because he really really wanted to go to this one college, scholarship be damned. NERR was like "you guys who are lolwut aren't entirely wrong" last year:
“While the masses are wondering how a sharp-shooting six-foot-seven forward could have slipped through the scholarship cracks, the reality is that he jumped through, spurning scholarship offers for the top ranked liberal arts school and one of the most storied Division III basketball programs in the country.”
At this point Michigan has earned a bit of leeway when they take someone you cock your eyebrow at. Beilein can just say "scoreboard." While taking this guy would be a bit weird, shooting is shooting is shooting is shooting. At 6'7" he also has flexibility to play the 3 and maybe even the 4 if he gets stronk like bull under Sanderson.
I mean, at this point you just look at a skinny 6'7" guy and wonder when the NBA comes calling, no matter where he's from.
If Michigan does offer and Robinson commits, that would not necessarily put an end to Michigan's 2015 class. That currently stands at no people; Michigan is bracing for a LeVert departure and reclassified Max Bielfeldt to senior status. They're also likely to put Austin Hatch on a medical. So they would almost certainly have room to add a second player in the class. A third is even possible.
Possible, but doubtful. Given the state of the roster and how strong Michigan is with a number of 2016 kids it seems like it would be a bit difficult for them to get another kid in without compromising what they hope is a monster class the year after. A Jalen Coleman in the hand is worth two Tyus Battles in the bush, though. Wouldn't rule it out. Do think that Michigan's expanding 2015 SG recruiting pool would get restricted to one, maybe two guys.
Meanwhile, Robinson would sit out the upcoming season and then have three to play.
if your coach leaves.
Sometimes, they'll let a kid out of his letter of intent if that happens but that's it.
And not on any deep research into the rules, once you've enrolled in a DIII school you have to sit a year before playing for a DI school in one of the Big Four sports. (Although my understanding is that if it was an NAIA school the NCAA wouldn't care.)
He seems to be less athletically incined, and weaker with his dribble. Also, definitely needs to add weight, but he seems to do a lot of the things that Stauskas could do. I think, especially with a year to get acclimated, this would be a really nice pickup. It would also provide a bit of a safety blanket for both the 2015 and 2016 recruiting cycles.
So, as a Soph, he's not quite as good as the #8 pick in the last draft?
I agree that he would be a good pickup, and also that he's not as athletic as Nik, but Nik developed a lot after his Frosh year. From the footage, he likely won't ever be Nik, but he looks pretty damned good with a skillset that seems perfect for UM.
Sorry if my previous message came off as questioning the guys skills. He definitely can play. My main thing is when I watched his highlights my first reaction was "Wow, that drive looks a lot like something Nik would do." But then my second thought was "Oh, but Nik would've dunked that."
Definitely a great system fit, and he'll only get better with strength and conditioning.
I think we had the exact same response. I thought "that looks like Nik, just not quite as athletic." Then I remembered the growth that Nik had after his first year. Then I remembered that Nik was the #8 pick in the draft. That gave me perspective.
Sorry if my message came off as overly caustic. I just find that our expectations for MBB (at least mine) have gotten ridiculous--in a wonderful way. We now expect another Stauskas every year, and with the way Beilein recruits and develops kids, it's hard to say that we're being unrealistic.
He seems like a shorter Steve Novak or a less athletic Nik Stauskas.
/ Within-race, within-Eastern European heritage comparison
I thought transfering between divisions makes players eligible immediately? At least that's how it works when football players (say Isaiah Crowell or Janoris Jenkins) went to D-II before the draft.
I think moving down may be different than moving up
I guess normally I'd think 'So why do we think a D-III guy would do ok in the best D-I conference?' but Beilein has been so spot on with his evaluations that I'll just shut up and wait for him to be a 2018 lottery pick
if he isn't NBA caliber by the end of his years here should he sign.
As someone who played D-III soccer at a high-ish level a decade ago, we had a couple D-I kids transfer in during my four years. IIRC, they didn't have to sit a year since they were "transferring down." Wonder why they would make a kid sit a year for "transferring up." Kinda similiar to what JUCO kids do, right?
So large schools don't poach the talented yet under recruited kids (i.e. this situation)?
They're going to two year schools, so they have no option but to transfer.
Not to mention a good handful of players doing well in the NBA that not a whole lot of other schools recruited.
This kid is going to be a gunslinger by the time the coaching staff is done with him. He may go on to be the smartest person in the NBA.
Where's the death stares to the crowd? The swag??
That being said, the kid has range. Legit shooter. I'd love to add this kid if the class size was larger, but since that's not the case... I JUST DON'T KNOW. I really feel that he would torment the crap out of some Sparties, though. I do like the idea of that.
Just remember, we have one of the best, if not the best, talent developing coaches in the NCAA. One year with Coach Beilein and he'll have that swag. Just wait!
I don't buy it unless you show me a baseball stadium with several left fields.
He's a name for the SG spot in the 2015 (not 2016) class, right?
I'm not totally sold on this (and I coached in the NBA for 83 years), but the fact that he played for a former assistant to Coach Beilein makes me feel better. I think you have to believe the staff has a really good sense of who they'd be getting.
Fun facts: Williams College's teams are called the Ephs. And their mascot is a purple cow.
Everyone guess Erik's age! I am going with 98.
Didn't know Gregg Popovich posted on MGoBlog
He coached Sweet River Baines
"I'm not going to pass the ball to Blackie."
Dr. Jack Ramsey is posting from the dead!!!
Obviously the coaching staff has earned the benefit of the doubt in their player evaluation and he looks like a great offensive fit.
What struck me most, though, was how all of that half-court offensive action looked like Michigan. There's just a bunch of little nuanced, timing-spacing things where I thought, "Hey, we do that! And that! And that, too...."
The outgoing Williams coach (who just hired CJ Lee as an assistant last week) was a Beilein assistant at West Virginia.
As a Williams and Michigan alum, I guess it's win-win: if he jumps ship I get to watch him on a bigger stage that I'm also invested in; if he stays in Williamstown there's the prospect of further trips deep in the D-III tournament.
TL;DR?
is he more than just a shooter?
He will be young padawon... He will be.
3s always have been and always will be worth more than 2s. Bring it on!
Couldn't agree more. And if we score more points than the other team often enough, we'll win a lot of games. Very important points.
Looks like his number change might be short-lived.
Either that, or this is just an elaborate ruse to get Izzo to take a Division III kid(Izzo has been poaching our plan b and c kids quite a bit lately).
In all seriousness, 45% is 45% is 45%. If one's belief(obviously not mine) is that perimeter defense doesn't affect 3pt percentage all that much, this becomes even more of a no-brainer.
I'm pretty convinced that the 3FG% isn't that affected by defense, especially in the Beilein offense where bad shots are verboten.
What would be a concern with DR (NTDR) is his usage rate. Can he get those shots off? Nik's evolution was punishing teams for (1) denying him the ball --> backdoor Game Blouses dunks; and (2) Closing out like maniacs on the 3 point shot --> getting in the lane for layups.
It looks to me like DR will have no trouble making shots he gets off, but whether he can add the other stuff Nik added is obviously up in the air. My gun to the head guess would be no, in which case he'll be Matt Vogrich But Taller.
But Irvin didn't do any of those things last year either, and he still shot .425
He hit 62 3-pointers in 569 minutes! Not only was his 62 3's #2 on the team behind Stauskas, but his rate of a 3-pointer made every 9.17 minutes was by far the highest on the team, even higher than Stauskas.
His overall FG rate was a made bucket every 6.69 minutes. Stauskas clocked in at a made bucket every 6.92 minutes. So Irvin actually scored a bucket MORE often than Stauskas did when he was on the floor.
we have one of the best coaches for developing talent and making kids better. He may start out keeping teams honest but he'll end as a top shooting threat.
Loved watching the bench in the highlights. It seemed like everytime Duncan took a long range shot, the entire bench stood up cheering before the ball was halfway to the hoop. If they're that confident when he shoots, I will welcome in with open arms! Like ClearEyesFullHart said, 45% is 45%.
Outgoing Williams coach Mike Maker ran an extremely effective offensive system (to give you some idea, the team broke 90 points 11 times last year) very similar to the Beilin system, and Williams often has the best D3 talent in the country, as kids choose an elite school and immediate PT over a situation where academics come a distant second and playing time might be tougher to come by. I didn't watch Robinson up close much, but a 6 7 sharpshooter can be valuable just about anywhere.
Anyway what I'm saying is Duncan Robinson clearly lacks the intestinal fortitude to continue to compete in the big bad NESCAC and is instead choosing a conference that includes Rutgers. Look for him to lead Michigan in scoring and GPA as soon as he is eligible, and for him to write several pointed diatribes in the Michigan student newspaper against your embarassing lack of undergraduate teaching.
Clearly someone who can contribute. A solid pickup who will be very valuable at stretching the court.
While, I'm glad that Beilein has had a chance to work with Burke and Stauskas (he needed some preparation for coaching a true superstar), I am still concerned. Do you think that he can keep Robinson motivated to drop 60 on Tuesday night games at Rutgers if Michigan fails to make the final four nearly every year? Can Crisler bring the energy that Robinson is used to at his home games? Will he puts teammates at risk of failing out of classes when he decimates the curve? Can he adapt to the TA who barely speaks English because he is used to professors that teach? What will the NCAA do in 2017 when they find out that Robinson has been elected Governor of Michigan, named CEO of Ford and sucessfully recruited by NASA.
I see you signed up today. Was Chandler already taken as a username?
Sure beats the heck out of which walk-on is going to be our point guard.
Heck, they're ranked several spots higher than Michigan on Money Magazine's college rankings!
On topic, In Beilein We Trust.
Coach Beilein has shown time and time again that he can find that player who is smart on and off the court, classy and a lot of fun to cheer for. And even if he is wrong on one here and there, his history says he nails these things a lot. Welcome to the team if you want to join us.
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