I'll preface this by saying I don't follow our b-ball program nearly as closely as football, mostly through standard media accounts and watching about half our games on TV. So my question is to those of you that do follow closely: what confidence level do you have in Beilein beyond the confidence that I have that he is a really good coach, and that we will return to a program at a good level of success? By this I mean do you think that we can be an elite program under his guidance, defining elite as a consistent top 25 level, with say elite 8 appearances in future or better? I ask because it seems that he recruits players at perhaps a lower level of talent that fit with his system, rather than say RR's recruiting success, were we're in the mix for top ranked talent. This could definitely be a result of where our program has been in the recent past, and will improve with our results. But I recall Brian saying that his approach to recruiting is somewhat different, with him looking to a different type of player. What do the "basketball elite" think?
Our future success level with Beilein?
I don't think there is any way to know.
When Rich Rod was at West Virginia, his recruiting classes were mediocre despite having success on the field. When he came here, his recruiting classes have been on par with Michigan's previous levels (i.e., good), despite not having success on the field.
When Beilein was at West Virginia, his recruiting classes were mediocre despite having success on the field. When he came here, his recruiting classes have been on par with Michigan's previous levels (i.e., mediocre), despite not having success on the field (in his first year).
Beilein is a good coach, but until Michigan starts playing great basketball consistently, we won't know whether he's under-recruiting. Given how our team fared last year, I'm impressed he was able to get the caliber of athletes he did. But if we ever do get to the level of success where it is obvious that we should be recruiting better, it would be foolish to criticize his recruiting given the success.
So...just roll with it.
Unless he picks up the recruiting, we will not reach an MSU-like level. On a year-to-year basis, we would not be able to keep up with MSU and OSU. As of now, I would project that every couple of years, we would be really good with veteran players, but when those players leave, we would just be a middle-of the pack team in the other years.
Morris was a good pick-up. So, that is a good start. But, we need to land some elite big men, and wing players (like Ziegler) in the 2010 and 2011 class to keep building momentum.
I think recruiting will improve. Michigan's facilities aren't elite-level, but that is changing. The team is scheduling/playing tough non-con teams and is getting more exposure and respect (e.g Duke, UConn, UCLA). Next year could be huge for the program; it's not a stretch to think that they could be a sweet 16 team (provided Manny and DeShawn stay). My expectation is that the program will get at least one blue chip recruit per year.
There is no doubt in my mind that Beilein can get us to the super-elite level. We've beaten Duke and UCLA this season, and last night we were up on UCONN most of the game. Our starting lineup is Senior, Junior, Sophomore, Freshman, Freshman, Freshman. Once the freshmen mature, we'll win games like the one last night. The young kids are tired, and you can see them tire as the game goes on. Next season, and in future seasons, Novak, for example, will not completely lose his legs as the season goes on. Hopefully, there will be better depth than Gibson, Shep, and Wright. We've won some big games this season, and there is no doubt that we will win big ones in the future.
Additionally, the team loves playing for coach Beilein. Talking to the guys, they believe in their team, and themselves, way more than they did last year. They're starting to get it, and next year, this team will be dangerous.
Beilein has done a nice job in developing Manny & Deshawn. However, we don't know yet if he will be able to recruit that type of talent. Amaker's failings weren't on the recruiting trail. He failed because he wasn't developing the talent that he brought in, imho. What will happen once Manny is gone? Can Beilein get the elite talent to come to Michigan? Only time will tell....
Amaker made some mistakes on the recruiting trail. Ba, Coleman, Smith, Price, Wright, Morris, and Baker just to name a few.
Not every BBall recruit will develop into a star. Hell, not every BBall player is necessarily being recruited with the purpose of them being a scorer.
I know. But, none of those guys did anything for us.
Amaker wasn't a good recruiter. Yes, he signed the occasional 4-star guy, but he had no idea how to put together a balanced roster. We always seemed to have about 5 small forwards and 3 shooting guards, and a shortage of point guards and centers. We never seemed to have enough ballhandling or outside shooting. Amaker "excelled" at signing raw athletes who needed good fundamental coaching - which he couldn't provide.
In Beilein,I trust.
Since its inception (1977)only two teams have one the National Championship without a McDonalds AA on the team: Maryland (2002) and Kentucky (1978).
The Kentucky victory is almost irrelevant considering the team was led by senior Jack Givens. He was a Parade all-american out of highschool and was named 1st team all-american 3 times while at Kentucky. In other words he probably would have been a MAA if it had existed.
Basically, you have Maryland in 2002. So if we are going to be an elite program he is going to need to pepper in a few of those players with his "system" recruits, IMO.
My point exactly. It remains to be seen if Beilein can recruit those types of players.
I don't follow basketball recruiting closely enough to say anything definitive, but isn't Darius Morris one of those types of players?
He's a 4 star, I believe, so, yes, he's a very good recruit for us. I'm not convinced that he will surround Morris with much else, though. The question is, what happens once Manny & DeShawn are gone? The Stu Douglasses of the basketball world have their place, but, to be a "elite" program, you need to have elite level recruits. We don't know if Beilein is capable of getting them to AA.
Ah, like we stayed in a game with the #1 team in the country using walk-on's, a super sofmore and Junior, a bunch of freshman and without a big man. Ye of little faith, M will be a sweet 16 program within 2-3 years!
Recent 4 star recruits for comparison purposes (rankings by Rivals)
Daniel Horton was the 7th ranked Shooting guard in the 2002 class - was a little better his senior year than freshman year, but not by a whole lot.
Dion Harris: 3rd ranked shooting guard 2003 - bust
Brent Petway: 16th ranked power forward - bust
Courtney Sims: 16th ranked Center - Bust
Deshawn Sims was the 6th ranked power forward in 2006 - on the NBA radar and will most likely be drafted after the 2009-10 season
Manny Harris was the 6th ranked shooting guard in 2007 - also on the NBA radar and will most likely be drafted after the 2009-10 season.
(Grady was a 3 star and ranked 107 in the top 150 and has started many games as a freshman and sophomore. Lucas-Perry also was ranked at 138 and is a freshman in terms of playing experience this year)
Darius Morris - 14th best PG and overall ranks 71 in the top 150
Matt Vogrich - 3-star, but is ranked in other ways: Ranked as THE BEST shooter(!) in the class at the shooting guard position. 30th best shooting guard and overall is 131 in the top 150.
There is also a chance we add Angus Brandt to this class is there is a departure. Ranked the 20th center and 148th overall.
It is not a reach at all to say that Novak and Douglass have contributed above their 3-star and unranked status so far this year. Especially considering Novak put up 20 against Wisconsin, drained two HUGE threes in the upset of Duke and Douglass just dropped six threes on the #1 team in the country.
Imagine what these kids will do as seniors after three more offseasons and coaching under Beilein (I don't see either of them having the athleticism to be drafted early if at all).
The team is getting quality depth and the recruits will only get better/higher quality.
Check out the Hot Board on www.umhoops.com - We have a legitimate shot at landing 2 of the following: Zeigler, Morgan, Ayers, and McCallum - all rated 4 stars and impact players. Also on the radar is Will Reagan, a 3-star 6' 8" power forward who can shoot like crazy.
I think it is safe to say the program is headed in the right direction quickly and will be a perennial tournament team making the occasional elite 8 and final 4 run. If it doesn't start this year, it most definitely will next year.
I'm with you I kow more about Fball than I do Bball but I will say this, if Beilein does not get more size in there he is going to struggle. MSU, OSU, and Wisc recruit big boys and we have struggled against these big boys this year. OSU flat out out-physicalled us in both games as did Wiscy. If we cannot get the 3 pointers rolling early against MSU we will not be able to get the dribble penetration to get to the basket, and it could be a very long night. In my very amature opinion I understand that he has a system that works and I hope it does but when these guys don't have to leave the ground to block a dunk we are going to struggle. GO BLUE!!!!!
Cronin is redshirting this year and he is a legit 7 footer. McLimans will be a freshman next year and play the four and maybe some 3 eventually and he is 6'10". Morgan will play the 4 and 5 and he is 6'8". Morris is 6'3" at point guard and Vogrich is 6'4" at shooting guard. add that to Novak at Shooting guard at 6'5" Peedi at the 4 and 5 next year, Manny at the 3 still who is 6'5" put plays like he's about 6'7" ...Douglass is like 6'3". We're getting a lot taller very soon. Some of the commits and freshman might grow an inch or two as well.
Not only are we adding the players listed above who all add much needed size to every position on the floor, these are all legitimate scholarship players. We basically lose Jevon and walk-on caliber players and replace them with quality.
Coaching-wise, I think J.B. is great. He's basically won a lot of games this year with nobody over 6'7"(sorry Gibson). My only concern would be his ability to attract a blue chip big man. I don't believe he's ever had a high quality post player, so that may be a difficult position to recruit. However, all it would take is one player that grows up loving and wanting to play at Michigan to commit and I think that would all change.
What we really need is a recruit who has a sweet name who that we can turn into a verb Beline's biggest accolimpishment was not making it into the elite eight but gettting you've been Pittsnoggled to be a household phrase can you imagine it every Michigan scroes a basket you've been (insert name here)ed
Remember that before the scandal, UM had spent most of the last twenty years as a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. Yes, there were a few lean years, especially at the end of Orr's reign, but they did have a pretty good run.
Starting with Cazzie Russell, UM was more often than not the dominant program in the state. MSU made a splash with Magic, but was either on a par with or a little bit below UM until Izzo got there. Basically, though their recent successes sometimes cause us to forget, MSU really weren't dominant in the years they didn't have either Magic or Izzo.
I don't think it is much of a reach to say that the ten year aftermath of the Ed Martin and Chris Webber scandal is over, and that UM will soon regain its rightful place as a perennial top 25 program.
I definitely agree with previous posters that the height needs to be upgraded and that they need to have more legit scholly recruits on the team as opposed to walk-ons who made good.
The 1989 NCAA champions had seven players listed at 6-9 or taller. When UM routinely has that kind of height, they will once again be a dominant team.
Hopefully, Tom Izzo will eventually give in to one of the many NBA offers he gets pretty much every year; that would really boost UM's program. If he doesn't, though, UM should still be able to pull even with them most years.
As for Beilein, he has done great work with mediocre personnel at both UM and WVU. I think the "Princeton on Caffeine" system is the best of both worlds and that most recruits would love the opportunities that it gives players to find and take open shots. It creates the mismatches and grossly open shots that the Princeton system creates, but is also much faster paced, giving today's players the chances to shoot that they crave.
I think the haze of the scandal has officially blown over, and that Beilein will be able to recruit enough size and talent to make UM a top-25 program on a regular basis again.
I was hoping it would happen this year after the two upsets, but it is looking like next year or another year down the road. I am guessing NIT this year, NCAA next year, sweet 16 or better the year after.
I doubt Izzo will leave MSU, but I also don't really care what he does. He's a good (not great) coach who had one spectacular four-year run (1998-01) when the Flintstones were there and everything fell into place. Aside from those four years, Izzo has one career Final Four and no career Big Ten titles.