As of 10:20 AM this morning, Datsyuk and Draper are are expected to be in the lineup tonight. Who they'll replace remains a mystery, but I would have to go with Maltby and Leino. I feel we pull this one out, 3-2 is the final score. Thoughts on the game tonight anyone?
OT- Game 4, Wings vs. Pens
Having Draper and Datsyuk available should lighten the defensive load on Zetterberg, somewhat. The extra, defensive forwards should make it harder on Pittsburgh's other lines to create offense, too.
Now, to win the game so that I can relax for the rest of the series.
We will win if the refs don't suck as much as the ones for Game 3. If they're the same refs we might lose.
... Holmstrom and Abdelkader did not skate in practice.
Wings win 4-1. That'll be the series score, too.
Ozzie wins the Conn Smythe, tells haters to STFU at the parade.
Is this for sure? The report about an hour before that, from nhl.com, was that Draper was in, but Datsyuk was a game time decision. Where was this reported?
they call him... The Coon...
I don't think they're going to do it, but I'd like to see them drop Datsyuk onto the third line. That way, even with the last change, the Pens will basically have to play against a good defensive forward. Lines would break down as such:
Or something thereabouts. I assume, though, that they'll reunite Hossa and Datsyuk and bump Helm to the third line.
I agree with you but even by dropping helm down a line we still have a good defensive forward in our top 3 lines. The depth of Detroit will win them this series. On another note, if Detroit wins this series they have to be the worst penalty killing team to ever win the Cup. The kill has been horrible the entire year...
"if Detroit wins this series they have to be the worst penalty killing team to ever win the Cup. The kill has been horrible the entire year..."
Two words: Chris. Osgood.
Your best penalty killer is your goalie. Dudesauce is soft.
that often, the goalie has no chance on a power play goal? For instance, one of the PP goals last game was deflected off of a skate in front of Ozzie. Secondly, I think Osgood is the least of our worry during the penalty kill. Guys not clearing the puck or getting out of position and leaving a guy open is the bigger concern. Also a bigger concern? Avoiding stupid penalties that the officials may randomly call.
Of course, I realize these things. But the tying PP goal (2-2) in game three is indicative of Osgood's play all year: unscreened 45 foot shot from the side board through the five hole.
Osgood has made a living off of timely, yet ultimately mediocre goaltending behind the greatest sports dynasty of the last decade (possibly two; this Wings team is giving 90s bulls a run for their money).
playoff though, and Osgood has been far from mediocre (and I mean that in the positive direction).
He's been fine in these playoffs. It always astounds me when people praise Osgood for playing well. He hasn't been lights out, Brodeur/Roy/carry-a-team good. He's looked like a goalie on a championship/late playoffs team that's not the Red Wings.
He's come up with some really big saves, but he's also let in some really soft goals and, especially in this series, been atrocious at handling the puck. I've never seen a goalie make as many glaring and (nearly) goal costing mistakes trying to handle the puck.
He has been far better than "fine." Over the playoffs, he has a .927 save %, which is fourth amoung all goalies. He also has a GAA of 2.00 - good for second in the playoffs. In the finals, his GAA is 1.67 and save % is .940.
Also, this team has not been good defensively. They have made many, many turnovers that Ozzy has had to clean up. The Wings have also struggled to clear the puck, particularly on the PK, as in the third goal in game 3.
Yes, the goal you are talking about should have been saved. But you can't really use one bad goal to say that the guy has been weak in these playoffs.
but on almost any goal ever given up...EVER...that teams fan base thinks it "should have been stopped." Realistically, Osgood has stopped basically everything he should have. Hard to sit here and point to him as a weakness. That's borderline irresponsible at this point.
Actually I'd say in the NHL, probably only 30% of all goals scored are ones that a goalie should've had a la the Osgood goal in question.
The fourth best save percentage sounds great, but when there are only 16 goalies, it puts you exactly where I said he was: Looking like a goalie on a late-round playoff team that's not the Wings.
Looking at numbers for goalies is always difficult, especially in the relatively small sample size like the playoffs. Not only to the Wings allow relatively few shots (save for this series) but most of the shots they allow are from the side boards or clear shots from distance (i.e., shots that an NHL goalie will readily stop).
Osgood has come up with some big saves (e.g., Malkin breakaway), but those are the kinds of saves you expect every once in a while from your goalie, no matter who it is. By my estimation, Osgood has let in two soft goals in this round. And at least one or two more in the playoffs. Great goalies (or goalies playing greatly), allow a fraction of that many. Osgood makes the saves I expect him to make and will occasionally come up big.
So is he a weak link? No. But is he playing at a level unheralded by other goalies or such that the Wings wouldn't be where there are with a lesser goalie? No.
playing at an unheralded level. But he's playing good enough to be considered a strength. And as far as elite goalies only giving up a fraction of the weak goals Osgood has...you estimated he has about 4 weak goals. That's one per round. Even great goalies are allowed 1 per round. While he has not been epic in this playoff, by any means, he is certainly playing at a stellar level of play, regardless of which team he's on. Now stop this before I jinx him and he gives up five goals tonight.
I read your first post as saying that he was the weak link on the PK (the wings weak link this round) and you called him soft. That was the post I was reacting to.
I agree that he is not playing at a level unhearlded by other goalies. Never said he was the greatest ever - only that he wasn't playing soft throughout the playoffs and he isn't reason why the Wings PK is so bad.
I do actually think they would not have survived the Ducks with a lesser goalie, or maybe even the 'Hawks. Of course we will never know. Let's agree that we both hope he plays well tonight and the Wings go up 3-1.
I agree with pens having last change those line combinations would be unstoppable. Not only would the chosen one and Malkin constantly play against the best defensive forwards in the NHL in Z and Pavel, and Helm. We'd also be able to get favorable matchups when crosby and Malkin are not on the ice. Hey you never know maybe we will run a fifth line as well. Leino Abdelkader Downey
Abdelkader is out. Draper is in. Pavel is a game-time decision. If he plays, Leino is probably going to sit.
Pav is out. He skated for 90 minutes with Cheli, Kindle and Abdelkader - all players who arn't playing. According to what I've read, it's very unusual for a player to skate more than 30 minutes of the optional skate on game day and to skate for that long would indicate he's not playing. Also when asked - Holland said "it doesn't look like it"
With Dats - Wings 6-1
Without Dats - Wings 3-2
Trying to predict scores of hockey games is a fools endeavor. There is absolutely no logical way for you to make such a prediction, so it's just throwing out plausible numbers in a random order: Wings 9-3 sounds about as reasonable as either of those predictions, but seems largely nonsensical only because you say "they probably won't get that many goals".
You're picking the Wings. I am too. But let us stray from shot in the dark predictions.
You're calling me out for making predictions about a hockey game and then telling me to stray from shot in the dark predictions. Um - K
What do you have against Steve Levy?
about where we got our screen names, (and that it wasn't relevant to this site, that I mostly post on hockey sites I've been using it for so long I wouldn't know what to do with another screen name) in the day when ESPN had the rights to televise the NHL, they used Steve Levy often as the play by play guy for games, and I thought he was the worst NHL play by play guy I had ever heard.
he's been injured and he could just be testing himself, even if he is playing. It's not like Hossa went out and skated with those players or anything.
I think this game will basically decide who wins the series. If Pittsburgh wins and evens it up, the Penguins ultimately take it in 7 games, especially if Datsyuk is unavailable for the rest of the series. If Detroit wins, they wrap it up Saturday.
because according to this guy IM4UMich, predicting when a series will be over is a shot in the dark and we should refrain from that on here.
Predicting a series is completely different than predicting the score of games. Trying to predict the score of any sporting event is more or less a worthless endeavor. It's an easy way to avoid analysis like: "If Datsyuk plays, I think it'll take pressure off of Zetterberg, leaving him fresher on the offensive end. You might see an uptick in goals/production".
You have absolutely no reasonable analysis to say 3-2, 6-1, or any other score you might randomly throw out. I think the Wings will win, especially if they have Datsyuk playing. But I also think they'll win because the game will be called tighter (and less lopsidedly). But to predict a score fails to acknowledge the often random nature of hockey games.
Predicting the score is as trivial as trying to predict who will score. It defeats the purpose of true analysis.
any sports scores ever then.
This is actually the ideal situation.
would disagree with you, along with the people who not only bet on exact scores (predictions) but who will score the first goal, who will get the first penalty etc.
You think Vegas is up for games in which people realistically have a shot at winning large sums of money? Trying to predict scores of sporting events is a fool's endeavor and hence Vegas is really into it. Sure, you can win money that way, but it's ultimately the same as pulling a lever on a slot machine and hoping that something good happens.
I pass no judgment. If you like randomly throwing out numbers, hoping that it happens so that you can... feel good about yourself/look omniscient, more power to you. But when actually trying to analyze a game, staying away from such random guesses is largely to your benefit.
EDIT: Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but Vegas (and most sports betting organizations) use point spreads.
You can bet on anything. Yes, point spreads are probably the most common, but you can bet on what the scores will be also. You should try it - it's fun.
My Vegas (all casinos really) money wasting is spent almost exclusively on poker tables. At least there I feel like I have some semblance of control.
Looks like Datsyuk is going to play. Front page of Freep.com (link doesn' work, typical Freep incompetence):
Datsyuk expects to play
Wings star Pavel Datsyuk skated for 90 minutes today and hopes to make his 2009 Cup finals debut tonight.
Freep says "expects to play"; News says "not sure." The News link works, and it features a quote by Datsyuk. When asked if he expects to play, he said, "I don't know. Not sure."
That makes me wonder if the Freep headline is overly optimistic.
Dats is a game time decision:
Datsyuk just got off the ice after a 90-minute hard workout. He said that he'll be in the pregame skate and will decide after that. Datsyuk said that he worked out three times longer than usual in the morning skate to test himself further, to see how his legs would react to more of a game-like situation.
That said, a 90-minute hard workout in the morning is a very unusual thing to do the day of a game.
P.S. This post puts me to 100 points, joining legendary posters WolvinLA, ShockFx, jg2122, and the_white_tiger in MGoBlog lore as the fifth poster to reach that mark! haha. end self glorification.
I idolize you i can't wait til I myself hit that great 100 post mark...
1. Patience young grasshopper. You shall one day join the greats
2. My post was sarcastic. Based on the "..." at the end of yours, I'm not sure if you realized that or not.
actually i was mocking you because i thought you were serious, but I'm relieved that you indeed are not serious.
Oh and the "..." IDK just something i do
and I'm surprised nobody has ever said anything about it, but i use the "..." a lot instead of normal periods...no idea why I do it tho
P.S. If anyone was actually serious about bragging about a post counter, I think I'd be tempted to punch them in the face. I can't stand those message boards where people judge posters based on counters like that.
I'm a huge MMA fan and post both on Sherdog and MMAlinker and I disagree. While some post constantly trying to boost their rating while contributing no actual attempts at anything that could be considered rational thoughts. I have come to respect those with higher ratings. They tend to be more knowledgeable and insightful.
On one hand, a poster with a high post total is generally going to be a good poster. They're experienced. If they weren't good posters, they would have been run off long before they reached that post total. However, it also bothers me. A poster who has not ever posted before could very well be a great poster who just hadn't found the site yet. A poster like McFarlin, however, was a poor poster who reached a decent total in a short time with dumb posts. There's always the whole "quality over quantity" argument to be made here as well. **End pointless ramble**
Agreed People like Mcfarlin ruin rating systems by endlessly posting retarded shit like he did and still does. Think about a rating system going through the best players(being a Charles Woodson, just awesome) through Michigan history. Like everything else in one way or another rating systems are flawed and often biased.
Dats sounds like a man on a mission... if he plays he should make an immediate impact. It will kinda stink losing Abdelkader or Leino from the lineup, because they have been playing well, but Babcock will probably let Maltby play over the others... blah.
Maybe Babcock thought Abdelkader could be a liability after the penalty he took in game 3. Too bad though, he's played so well up to that point.
Abdelkader didn't get a penalty in game 3.
not make a penalty in that game, but most coaches (good ones anyways) aren't reactionary enough to change a roster based on one isolated event (especially when that event didn't occur)
I think the only reason Abbie is out is because they need Drapers faceoff wins and penalty killing expertise.
Some interesting stats:
In each game 4 this year the Wings have scored 6 goals and in each game 4 this year Hossa has scored 2 goals.
Since 1954-55 the Wings have been the Finals 4 times and won the Cup 4 times. In those 4 Finals the Wings have lost a total of 4 games; 3 of them to the Penguins.
Just found those to be interesting.
Sounds good hopefully the trend continues
Edit - It's actually 5 times, counting this one. Sorry, long day.
that can't be right, what about 95 and getting swept by NJ in the finals?
Shit. Nevermind. I must have been smoking some crack today when I was thinking about this. I'm sorry about that. I completely forgot about that Devils series (as I'm sure you probably would like to as well!). Nice catch though. I take it back. Although if you look at the period after that loss to the Devils it's still pretty impressive.
believe me, I only call it back up from the memory banks at times like these. Otherwise, it never happened.
I absolutely agree with your last statement
The Wings looked pretty lethargic tonight after that short handed goal.