Opponent Watch: Week 2 Comment Count

Heiko

(Last week there was some confusion about opponent fear levels. Let me explain my scale: 0 = Bye week?; 1 = If Michigan loses to this team somebody’s going to get fired; 5 = This team will have a winning record; 8 = Best in conference/will play in a BCS bowl; 9 = National title contender; 10 = Hold me, TomVH. Also, I’ve made some minor tweaks, but again, I welcome your suggestions for how I can make this more informative. Disclaimer still applies -- these analyses carry little weight until we’re through with the cupcakes or N=3.)

[ED: Yo. Heiko accidentally overwrote last week's opponent watch, so the first 45 comments are from that post last week. Do not be confused. Or do, I guess, but that's on you.]

About last Saturday:

Notre Dame

Last game: Notre Dame 31, UM 35

Question: Where were you when Roy Roundtree caught Denard Robinson’s pass to allow Michigan to beat Notre Dame with two seconds left on the clock?

Right there.

I was cheering so hard I forgot to take pictures, and when I finally did, this is all I got:

 

And it was awesome.

The Road Ahead:

Eastern Michigan (2-0 (! ? .))

Last game: Alabama State 7, EMU 14 (W)

Recap: Let’s start out nice and easy with a backhanded compliment. Brady Hoke:

How do you make sure EMU is not a letdown game? “I can tell you one thing -- Eastern’s 2-0. They haven’t been 2-0 since 1989.”

So … Eastern Michigan managed to schedule a pair of FCS teams to begin their season and not lose to them. Bravo. You know what happened during week one, right? They crushed a bad, bad Howard team 41-9. Last Saturday they played against Alabama State, which according to MGoUser mikoyan, is not that bad. There is some merit in that assessment:

“I'm not sure Alabama State is a worse team than Eastern, they blew out their opening week opponent 41-9.  If I recall, they are a fairly good 1AA team.”

I fact-checked to confirm that, indeed, a team coming off a 41-9 week one victory had squared off against another team coming off a 41-9 week one victory. #Destiny. #LoveIt.

#SoTellUsWhatHappened!

You should stop holding your breath is what happened. It was unwatchable/I didn’t watch any of it.

The teams matched each other closely for first downs -- the Hornets accrued 18 and Eastern Michigan had 20 -- but each averaged only about 1.5 first downs per drive. (I know, I know, that sounds like … Michigan against Notre Dame!) The Eagles won by relying heavily on their ground game, which was good for 336 yards, because their passing was atrocious (which is the negative descriptor of the week). Eastern QB Alex Gillett put up a 2011-Notre-Dame-Denard-like completion percentage (7 for 19, 1 TD, 1 INT) without the 2011-Notre-Dame-Denard-like yards (61). Gillett actually gained more yards running (74) than passing, which officially makes him the Little Sister of the Poor Man’s 2011-Notre-Dame Denard. Wow, that’s two rivalry references in one.

Their defense did manage to convince Alabama State to run backwards for -13 yards on 30 attempts. Woo.

Right now they are as frightening as: The common cold. At worst it’s an inconvenience, and a week later, nobody ever remembers you were sick. 1. A canker sore. You worry about it only if you think it might be Herpes. It’s not. 1.

Michigan should worry about: It’s possible (but not probable) that Mike Hart may have some kind of fifth-year/grad/transfer eligibility left. Hart’s comments about not cheering for Michigan. Aww. =(

Michigan should sleep soundly about: The highway that separates Ann Arbor and Ypsi. Those three-game Putterz vouchers never expire.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Dave Brandon would have argued that the game was in hand before the game even started. At least GameDay would have been covering two teams with winning records.

Next game: That Team A Couple Miles West On Washtenaw.

San Diego State (2-0)

Last game: San Diego State 23, Army 20 (W)

Recap: San Diego State has now beaten all three service academies within the last year, which is more than Notre Dame can say for itself.

This game was close. Though Aztec RB Ronnie Hillman had another 100+ rushing performance, Army outrushed San Diego State 403-146. How did Army not win? Their passing was crappy (not that the Black Knights’ triple-option offense ever passes), and they turned the ball over three times, plus a forced fumble that was almost a fourth turnover on the last drive (they turned it over on downs on the next play regardless). The Aztecs had zero turnovers:

"Yards don't win games," Army coach Rich Ellerson said. "Turnovers is what correlates to the final score."

I know, says Brian Kelly. I know. =’(

San Diego State QB Ryan Lindley was 8 for 18 with 146 yards and a TD. He wasn’t as good as last week, but he got the job done. More importantly though, Lindley seems to be courting a favorite wide receiver from the depths of the depth chart. His name is Colin Lockett, he’s a sophomore, and he didn’t even make it onto Tim’s 2011 Opponent Preview, but he did catch five passes for 113 yards and a touchdown, so Michigan should keep an eye on him.

The obligatory defensive report: they gave up three more rushing touchdowns. Man, defense is so boring to write about.

Right now they are as frightening as: The ex-fiancé of a girl that you dated before they were together to whom you are now married. Yeah, you were there first -- and he totally understands -- but you accidentally mailed him an invitation to your baby shower. Oops. 4. The ex-fiancé says he’s doing well, doesn’t miss your wife at all, and even got re-engaged … to your wife’s former defensive coordinator. Fear level remains at 4.

Michigan should worry about: Lingering toughness and accountability from San Diego State’s Hoke era. In all seriousness, shoring up that run defense against Hillman.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: The best scouting report EVER. They don’t have much of a run defense, either.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Ryan Lindley, meet Jordan Kovacs. Kovacs, Lindley. I would love to see a noon game with the lights on.

Next game: Washington State

(more after the jump)

Minnesota (0-2)

Last game: New Mexico State 28, Minnesota 21 (L)

Recap: You have to feel bad for Minnesota. Losing to USC on the final drive last week, and then losing head coach Jerry Kill -- and the game -- on the final drive this week. He suffered from dehydration-induced seizures, but he’s okay now, though, so phew.

Aside from Kill’s health issues, what makes the loss to New Mexico State infinitely worse than last week’s loss to the Trojans is the fact that Vegas had the Golden Gophers favored by about 20 points. A week ago, it was a fair bet. Minnesota barely lost to USC. The Aggies have consistently been one of the worst teams in the FBS, and just last week they lost to Ohio (YTO) 44-22.

So was this a letdown game after coming so close to beating the Trojans? Hopefully. Against a team that rushed for 6 yards on 23 attempts during week one, The Gophers never even had a lead. Minnesota QB Marqueis Gray (16 of 32, 211 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT) had a better day overall as a passer and added 110 rush yards on 17 attempts but again had to leave the game in the third quarter due to cramps. One of their water boys is doing a really, really bad job.

Right now they are as frightening as: Their mascot. Fear level = 3. I don’t really have the heart to come up with anything derisive, so … how about a cute furry animal, like, say, a gopher, with big, glassy eyes? 2.

How could anyone want to hurt this?

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota held USC scoreless for the entire second half and allowed the Trojans to rush just 67 yards on 28 attempts. Minnesota having too terrible a record before coming to Ann Arbor, making it meh if Michigan wins the game, catastrophic if Michigan loses.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: The Trojans didn’t need to run the ball because Matt Barkley was too busy bombing the Gophers’ secondary for 304 yards. They play Miami (NTM), and North Dakota State to close out their nonconference schedule. One win is a reasonable expectation.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: The Wolverines’ defense would feel as if they were defending against a less talented Denard. I would have been on the sideline to help out as a first responder? Just kidding. I’m not qualified, yet.

Next game: Miami (NTM)

Northwestern (2-0)

Last game: Eastern Illinois 21, Northwestern 42 (W)

Recap: Northwestern QB Dan Persa was never going to risk reinjury to start against Eastern Illinois, but a lot of money went into his Heisman campaign in Chicago this summer, so the Wildcats had to keep investors mollified by listing him as “questionable” for as long as possible this week. And then, surprise, he didn’t play. Again.

At least he dressed?

Backup QB Kain Colter performed well in his second start, rushing for 109 and 3 TDs while completing 10 of 13 passes for 104 yards -- all this without committing any turnovers. Northwestern must have one hell of a quarterbacks coach.

There is a catch, though. The Panthers were a 2-10 FCS team in 2010. They may be improving this season, but they’re starting from terrible.

Right now they are as frightening as: Ash Ketchum without Pikachu. 4. Hard to tell, but squirtle is doing a good job against wild rattatas, for what it’s worth. The Wildcats remain at 4 for the time being.

Michigan should worry about: A healthy Persa. A healthy Persa.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: A road game that will have more Wolverines fans than Northwestern fans in attendance. That big bad Boston College team they barely beat last week folded to Central Florida, 30-3.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: It would have been the best “who’s starting?” match-up of the week. I’m sure ESPN would have shown some comparison of average freshman SAT scores between the two schools, which is something I can never gauge anymore because I still think a 1500 is really good.

Next game: at Army

No. 17 Michigan State (2-0)

Last game: Florida Atlantic 0, Michigan State 44 (W)

Recap: In this week’s Non-Game-Of-The-Week, Florida Atlantic held Michigan State to two non-scoring drives: a missed 28-yard field goal in the third quarter and a punt in the fourth quarter.

Right now they are as frightening as: Your younger step-brother, who went and got jacked while you had mono. Fear level = 6. And now he’s torturing small animals for fun. Fear level = 7.

Michigan should worry about: Kirk Cousins (18 of 22 for 222 yards and 1 TD), and LB Max Bullough (15 tackles). Not throwing so many interceptions this year would be great.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: Recruiting. This:

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Hoke’s countdown clocks would have been really, really off. No one wants to see those Pro Combat uniforms under any light.

Next game: at Notre Dame

Purdue

Last game: Purdue 22, Rice 24 (L)

Recap: It took three years, but former Michigan RB and current Rice RB Sam McGuffie finally got the chance to beat Purdue. He even scored a touchdown! Yay!

About the Boilermakers, though: QB Caleb TerBush held onto his starting spot for week two, completing 18 of 31 passes for 183 yards and 1 TD and rushing for an additional 68 yards and a score. Not bad, but not enough. Purdue charged into field goal range on its last drive with plenty of time on the clock, but decided, “Hey, why don’t we just run out the clock and settle for the field goal?” which seemed like a good idea until the Owls blocked the attempt to win the game, at which point the Rice fans stormed the field.

So what did we learn about Purdue? They are 2 for 2 as far as causing people to run onto the field.

Right now they are as frightening as: A Kia with an expired warranty. 2. A Kia with an expired warranty and no car insurance. 2.

Michigan should worry about: Having to call the game early when Purdue runs out of quarterbacks. The return of QB Robert Marve? I don’t know. I’m trying really hard here.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: Ryan Kerrigan’s diploma. I don’t think the QB position is the problem …

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: The MGoLiveblog would be clamoring to see a Bellomy to Roundtree touchdown. Would Michigan fans have stormed the field? I know I would have.

Next game: Southeast Missouri State

Iowa (1-1)

Last game: Iowa 41, Iowa State 44 (L)

Recap: In a tie game against rival Iowa State with more than a minute left in the fourth quarter and two time-outs, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz elected to take a knee. Then, in triple overtime, facing a fourth-and-1 -- the Cyclones would have the second possession -- Ferentz elected to kick the field goal.

Iowa State would score a touchdown five plays later.

Ouch. The man wagered zero dollars and still lost. The folks over at BHGP were so disgusted they had this to say:

“I guess what I'm trying to say is if Kirk Ferentz taught a class in game theory, his A students would drive 20 miles an hour at all times, live in padded rooms, and be simpering virgins.”

Nothing wrong with driving 20 miles an hour at all times, but what were they expecting? If Iowa QB James Vandenberg is Chad Henne, then Ferentz is Lloyd Carr -- and RB Marcus Coker is Mike Hart? No no no, that can’t be right. Coker fumbles too much. This conceit doesn’t work very well anymore.

Right now they are as frightening as: The stock market. Over the past two years, they’ve earned the title of Least Predictable Team. To illustrate: they beat Michigan State to a pulp, then almost lost to Indiana, then actually lost to Northwestern, then really awfully lost to Minnesota, but then beat Missouri in the the Insight Bowl! For now, fear level = 6, +/-2. A Great Depression survivor investing in the stock market. 5.

Michigan should worry about: Brian’s nukes wiping out all the corn in Iowa. Iowa is almost 50% on third-down conversions.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: There’s still Nebraska. Which means Kirk Ferentz is -–> <-- this close to punting on third down.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Where there is Chad Henne there is Tacopants. What’s worse: driving 20 miles an hour on a highway or driving 100 miles an hour in a parking lot?

Next game: PIttsburgh.

Illinois (2-0)

Last game: South Dakota State 3, Illinois 56 (W)

Recap: This game came in an extremely close second for being the Non-Game-Of-The-Week. It didn’t win the honor because the Illini allowed the Jackrabbits, an FCS team, to score a field goal.

Right now they are as frightening as: A large rock. They don’t look threatening, but it’s going to take a lot to get them out of the way. 5. A large rock at the top of a hill. Nobody touch it, please. 5.5.

Michigan should worry about: Scheelhaase actually developing into what Gerry Dinardo called the most balanced dual-threat QB in the Big Ten. Heh. Okay, so Scheelhaase (6 for 8, 102 yards, 9 carries, 93 yards, 2 TDs) tore up an FCS team for a half. Jury’s still out, but he’s got some potential.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: On fourth-and-short against the 2010 Michigan defense, Illinois head coach Ron Zook chooses to punt. Wheel routes. Yeah, Jeremy Gallon can do those, too.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Rain delays vs. triple overtime. Illinois’ wide-open running back vs. Michigan’s wide-open Gallon.

Next game: No. 22 Arizona State

No. 10 Nebraska

Last game: Fresno State 29, Nebraska 42 (W)

Recap: Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez fumbled twice and threw two interceptions in this game, but still came up with 219 yards passing with 1 TD, and 166 yards rushing and 2 TDs. Sound familiar? At face value, there are many depressing comparisons to be drawn between Martinez and Denard. But then you realize that Denard played against Notre Dame; Martinez against Fresno State. Martinez < Denard.

The real disappointment this game was the Husker defense, which gave up six plays of 20+ yards. Losing CB Alfonso Dennard was a blow, but missing one guy shouldn’t result in allowing the Bulldogs to rush for 190 yards. That’s a D-line problem, which, for Nebraska, is particularly troubling. On one drive, Fresno State rushed seven times in a row before the Huskers decided, “Hm, maybe we should try to stack up against the run or something.”

The most surprising part of this game was the fact that Nebraska didn’t have a lead until the third quarter. It took a kick-off return for a touchdown and a QB read-option for another score at the end of the fourth quarter to seal the victory.

Shame.

Right now they are as frightening as: Charlie Sheen. 8. The Roast of Charlie Sheen. 7.

Michigan should worry about: The Big Ten making this an Ugly Trophy game. Nebraska’s defense is still a lot better than Michigan’s.

Michigan should sleep soundly about: It can’t be uglier than Cy-Hawk. Teehee (language is NSFW):

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: Let’s be honest [Denard’s just gonna give you the Look]. I would not mind Michigan playing Nebraska under the lights, although beating Notre Dame just feels better somehow.

Next game: Washington

No. 15 Ohio State

Last game: Toledo 22, Ohio State 27 (W)

Recap: The Ohio State offense looked bad. The defense wasn’t dominant. Toledo QB Austin Dantin should have kept the ball on that one read-option. Whatever. I don’t want to talk about it. Michigan beat Notre Dame, you say? Eff yeah!

Right now they are as frightening as: The Soviet Union, circa 1990. 7. Günter Schabowski just unwittingly gave the signal for the Berlin Wall to open up, so now everyone thinks it’s going to be torn down. Unfortunately, the only manpower available is a bunch of drunk college students armed with sledgehammers. 7.

Michigan should worry about: Bri’onte Dunn. Bri’onte Dunn. Why you no commit to Michigan?

Michigan should sleep soundly about: Kyle Kalis. We haz your cousin Dymonte Thomas.

If Michigan had played them last Saturday: WHAT HAPPENED TO LAST SATURDAY IN NOVEMBER? RABBLE RABBLE DOWN WITH DAVE BRANDON! It would have been cool to have Ohio State for a night game, but AT THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMEBER/ARE YOU CRAZY/TRADITION/RABBLE?!

Next game: Miami (YTM)

Comments

michgoblue

September 9th, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^

"Against Youngstown State, it took Michigan State nearly 15 minutes of mediocre play to remind themselves, “Wait a minute, we’re Michigan State!” and another 15 to decide whether that was a good thing"

That there is some funny stuff.

Heiko, your writing style started out as a 10 out of 10, and you somehow improve every week.  You are a seriously awesome addition to this blog.

Sgt. Wolverine

September 15th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^

Been there, done that. Not for Michigan sports -- I'm not cool enough to photograph M events -- but yeah, it's hard to stop being a sports fan. I've gotten a little bit better about it over the past few years, but not THAT much better.

kevin holt

September 15th, 2011 at 5:54 PM ^

Blatant facemask on Toledo defender... that looks painful. And painfully dirty. Really hoping and really doubting that was a TD run that got called back 80 yards for that one.

Champ Kind

September 15th, 2011 at 6:35 PM ^

I love the column, but I'm not crazy on the strikethrough of last week'scomments.  The strikethrough works better on one word or smaller chunks of words in my epinion (like the State in Ohio State).  I do like reading last week's ratings and appreciate how you build upon certain thoughts, but I think a bulleted list may be easier to read.  I'm old, so maybe other people can read the strikethrough sections with more ease.

Ziff72

September 15th, 2011 at 6:37 PM ^

After reading this do you doom and gloomers that are predicticting 5-6 wins still think that?

This is a tremendous opportunity in front of Michigan.  If Mattison and Borges get things ironed out this thing is just ready to be taken.  

Red is Blue

September 15th, 2011 at 7:51 PM ^

Loved the picture of Roundtree, too bad you got that guy in the foreground, otherwise it would have been totally epic.

One nit:

Recap: San Diego State has now beaten all three service academies within the last year, which is more than Notre Dame can say for itself.

 

Technically isn't that more that M can say for itself too?  I get it is different since M hasn't played of thema and it is a jab at ND in regards to Navy, but...

uminks

September 15th, 2011 at 10:36 PM ^

The only teams that look good this past week are MSU, IL and NW.  NE and OSU have good defenses but not too impressed with their offenses.

Hopefully Michigan will improve by the time we hit MSU on the road.

Heiko, did you use to post on mgoblog often in the past?

mikoyan

September 15th, 2011 at 10:51 PM ^

That picture you took is not bad.

That picture of Gillett looks vaguely familiar...:)

I like that picture of the Spartan poking the eyes out of the FAU guy...

 

Or is the Spartan saying, "Talk to the hand...bitch"

And I hear that Ohio State and Miami are playing "under the Searchlights"