Opponent Watch 2017: Week 2 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

Air Force

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Showing up to a 3-on-3 basketball tournament, but when you get to the third round they’re like “SURPRISE, this round is going to be Chinese Checkers instead of basketball.” Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: The triple option is a different beast. An evil beast. One that should be avoided at all costs, DAVE.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This is the game where having a Bryan Mone is reeeeeeeeally gonna come in handy.

When they play Michigan: Pray for all the knees.

Next game: at Michigan, noon, BTN

Purdue

Last week: Beat Ohio, 44-21

Recap: I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but Purdue is doing stuff.

Yes, I know Purdue has done stuff in the past. But the stuff they did was mostly cruel and tragic. Now they are doing stuff that is cheeky and fun. No. I’m not kidding.

Purdue is averaging more yards per play than either Ohio State or Michigan (or eight other Big Ten team, for that matter). David Blough is averaging 10.5 yards per pass, which leads the conference by nearly 2 full yards. It’s weird, y’all.

This team is as frightening as: That longshot celestial/geological/meteorological event for which the evidence is starting to mount. The only issues is that we don’t know yet if we’re in a disaster movie. Like, there’s a reason the higher-ups always ignore the scientist in disaster movies. It isn’t that the leadership is full of idiots. It’s that Jenkins has made cockamamie predictions in the past. He’s got that reputation. It isn’t like “Jenkins, the calm, measured scientist who has made a number of prior accurate calls and usually follows protocol has never been in a fist-fight with the Director, has put together a briefing we should probably see.” Jenkins is nuts. That’s why THEY. JUST. WON’T. LISTEN. TO. MEEEEEE: because he’s is almost always wrong.

Almost always. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Purdue has scored 72 points in the first two weeks under Jeff Brohm. Guess how many times they scored 72 points in a two-game stretch under Darrell Hazell? Go ahead. Guess. You’ll never gue… yes it was zero. Okay, maybe that wasn’t as tricky of a question as I thought.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Purdue is still giving up the second-most yards per play in the conference, behind only Nebraska. And many of those plays are big chunk plays.

When they play Michigan: This is technically a road game, but it may as well be considered a neutral site game.

Next game: at Missouri, 4:00 p.m., SEC Network

[Might as well hit THE JUMP, if only to save your knees]

Michigan State

Last week: Beat Western Michigan, 28-14

Recap: I’m compelled to go somewhat easy on Michigan State this week, for two reasons. The first is that at least twenty Spartans are spending their bye week to go down to Houston, Texas to help out in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. This is a very cool thing; getting college kids to surrender downtime is tough enough, and college athletes have much less downtime than most students. All trolling aside, kudos to them.

The second reason is that I have no earthly idea what to make of Michigan State right now. Their secondary is a mess, and is letting receivers run eeeeeeverywhere…

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Yeah these happened again

…but Michigan State LEADS THE CONFERENCE in yards per pass allowed (3.9 YPA) and completion percentage allowed (37.9%). They have serious issues running the ball, but they are 3rd in the conference in rushing yards per game. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

This team is as frightening as: When you have so much DISRESPEKT that you briefly forgot about the DISRESPEKT. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: All of a sudden, Brian Lewerke can run. He’s Michigan State’s leading rusher, and is averaging 10.7 yards per carry (excluding sacks). He had a 61 yard touchdown in this one on a read keeper. He’s not “fast”-fast; he moves in a manner that reminds one somewhat of a slightly faster Steven Threet.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: MSU has an LJ Scott problem. Scott had one 44 yard carry on a 4th and 1 when WMU sold out. Excluding that run, he’s got 32 carries for 81 yards. That’s 2.5 yards per carry. Against MAC competition. In fact, Gerald Holmes started this game over Scott.

When they play Michigan: They might make this a night game against the advice of everyone who has ever been to one of these things.

Next game: Bye

Indiana

Last week: Beat Virginia, 34-17

Recap: Indiana’s got themselves a good ol’ fashioned quarterback controversy.

Richard Lagow started the game, but after going 3 of 10 for 24 yards (that’s bad), Indiana turned to Pocket-sized Peyton Ramsey, who promptly went 16 of 20 for 173 yards (8.7 YPA) and 2 TDs.

Beyond the quarterbacking tomfoolery and the blowout win, though, was a continuing picture of the slow and inexorable demise of #ChaosTeam. Indiana ran the ball 41 of 71 plays at 2.7 yards per carry (about 3.9 YPC after sacks are removed). They couldn’t even replicate the same kind of rushing performance that William & Mary put up against Virginia the week before.

Through two games, Indiana is averaging 1.88 yards per carry, and has exactly 2 carries of 10+ yards. Every other Big Ten team has at least six. They are ahead of two teams in the country in this regard: Florida (who has only played one game, against Michigan) and Florida State (who has only played one game, against Alabama).

This team is as frightening as: The very late Roman empire. They’re wearing the same uniform as #ChaosTeam, they still have vague institutional memories of #ChaosTeam, and they occupy much of the territory #ChaosTeam used to occupy. But instead of invading foreign lands, they are playing defense and trying in vain not to be surpassed by their neighbors. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Those two big outside receivers, Simmie Cobbs and Donovan Hale.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

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When they play Michigan: There’s a decent chance that Indiana is going to try to out-Michigan Michigan. That seems like a poor strategy.

Next game: vs. Florida International, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Penn State

Last week: Beat Pitt, 33-14

Recap: This game didn’t matter.

Do you hear me, Pitt?

HEY, PITT. PAY ATTENTION TO ME WHILE I AM DISMISSING YOU. PITT. PIIIIIIIIIIITT.

Anyway, Penn State defeated…

Did you say something, Pitt? No? Oh, sorry. I thought maybe you said something. Okay, back to barely noticing you.

Penn State defeated Pitt 33-14 in a game that was closer than the score would indicate. Pitt actually outgained Penn State (though Penn State was better by more than 2.0 yards per play), and while time of possession is a dumb stat, I don’t recall ever seeing a team get out-possessed by more than 16 minutes (38:20 to 21:40) and still win the game. Penn State’s offense, as is often the case, was basically Saquon Barkley and the guys who stay in the same hotel as Saquon Barkley. Barkley had 133 yards on 18 touches (7.4 YPP). The other 34 plays netted 179 yards (5.2 YPP).

After the game James Franklin did his very best to call attention to the fact that he wasn’t calling attention to the win:

I think the Sad Field Goaler doth protest too much. Next thing you know he’ll be singing a song about he doesn’t give a damn about the Whole State of Pennsylvania West of Altoona.

This team is as frightening as: A team that wants a cookie for beating a really bad Pitt team. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Barkley until further notice.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: A week after giving up 9.7 yards per pass to Youngstown State, Pitt held Trace McSorley and company to 5.9 yards per pass.

When they play Michigan: The fun is in trying to guess HOW James Franklin will screw up a clock management situation.

Next game: vs. Georgia State, 7:30 p.m., BTN

Rutgers

Last week: Lost to Eastern Michigan 16-13

Recap:

Image result for curious george astronaut

This is not the monkey’s fault

As the father of two young children, I watch a great deal of Curious George. The traditional interpretation of George is that of a mischievous monkey who continually gets himself into trouble. In fact, in Hungary, the show is known as “Bajkeverő majom”, which translates to "Troublemaker Monkey.”

But I have come to believe that the show is really about the adults *around* George. The Man in the Yellow Hat is a negligent guardian who puts himself, George and everyone around them in constant danger. Oh, you let a monkey pilot a space shuttle, and it went to shit? And then you made him a train master, and the schedule got messed up? Oh, maybe because HE’S A GODDANG MONKEY.

I guess what I’m saying is that if you put your hopes in Rutgers football after their brief moment of competence against Washington, that’s on you. Don’t blame Rutgers for being Rutgers. Blame yourself for expecting them to be Not Rutgers.

This team is as frightening as: Scurvy. A real threat in the 19th century, generally marked by lethargy and overall weakness, and when it makes an appearance in modern society it makes people stop and wonder what in the hell went wrong to allow such a thing to occur. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Kyle Bolin was named PFF’s Big Ten quarterback of the week, on the strength of his… uh… 44.7% completion percentage, 5.2 yards per pass, and 2 interceptions against no touchdowns.

Dammit PFF, this is why you don’t put Curious George in charge of your algorithms.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Eastern Michigan was 0-39 all-time against Big Ten teams. They were winless in their last 59 against major conference teams, a streak dating back to the Reagan Administration. Eastern Michigan outplayed Rutgers AT RUTGERS.

When they play Michigan: At least those cannon dudes can do nothing from the comfort of their own homes.

Next game: vs. Morgan State, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Minnesota

Last week: Won at Oregon State, 48-14

Recap: Minnesota sat on Oregon State.

The Gophers ran 66 plays on Saturday. 58 of them were runs, and went for a total of 253 yards. Demry Croft completed 7 of his 8 passes for 158 yards, 127 of which went to Tyler Johnson. Oregon State is bad. I don’t think Minnesota is good.

This team is as frightening as: Sure, you may win big. But when you win big LIKE THAT, you remain…

Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan should worry about: Tyler Johnson followed up his big Week 1 performance against Buffalo with a 31.8 yards-per-catch performance against Oregon State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Johnson’s emergence would be better if he wasn’t the ONLY receiver out here doing anything. He has more than two-thirds of Minnesota’s receiving yards. Freshman Demetrius Douglas has 7 catches for 40 yards, which is an impressively bad ratio. No one else has caught more than two balls.

When they play Michigan: Oh please let them wear these helmets.

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Next game: vs. MTSU, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Maryland

Last week: Beat Towson, 63-17

Recap: We don’t need to discuss this one too much. It was never close; the score was 21-0 after 9 minutes. It was never competitive; Maryland outgained Towson 9.89 yards per play to 4.29 yards per play. Maryland faced only 6 3rd downs all day. Kasim Hill averaged 10.2 yards per pass, and the Terps averaged 10.2 yards per carry.

This team is as frightening as: Look, Maryland is in the "Sarcastically Frightening" line. If you wanted them addressed in the "Seriously Frightening" category, you're gonna have to wait in the yellow line and fill out Form 10-C. We'll be back to you with an approval or denial within one to two weeks. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Ty Johnson picked up 124 yards on FIVE carries. He’s averaging over 15 yards per carry thus far.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Johnson averaged huge numbers against bad competition last year as well, but didn’t fare as well against real teams. Let’s wait to see him at Minnesota in two weeks, at OSU in 3 weeks, and at Wisconsin on October 21 before we panic TOO much.

When they play Michigan: Someone please give Mike McCray some spinach. He’s gonna need to have himself a game.

Next game: Bye

Wisconsin

Last week: Beat FAU, 31-14

Recap:

This team is as frightening as: We don’t know. And we aren’t going to know for a while. Because Wisconsin’s schedule is starting to look even more like trash than it did at the start of the season:

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BYU is 0-2. Northwestern just got Grayson Allen’d by Duke. Nebraska’s defense is abysmal. Illinois may be the worst team in the conference. Iowa just needed a miracle to beat Iowa State in overtime. It’s possible that their toughest game is either Purdue or Maryland. Fear Level = /throws dart at dart board

Michigan should worry about: Crappy competition or no, Jonathan Taylor looks quite good. He leads the conference at 155 yards per game and is 3rd in the conference at almost 8.9 yards per carry. His 64-yard touchdown against FAU was a particularly impressive display of vision, power, and speed.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Taylor was committed to Rutgers as recently as October of last year, and that ish doesn’t just wipe off with a shower and a clean set of clothes. No, sir. It stays in your system, lying dormant. It may not resurface for weeks or months. Maybe even years. But, like the virus that causes shingles if you’ve had chicken pox, THE RUTGERS IS ALREADY INSIDE YOU.

When they play Michigan: Wisconsin is going to be 10-0.

Next game: at BYU, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Ohio State

Last week: Eviscerated by Oklahoma, 31-16

Recap: Ohio State’s defense struggled against Oklahoma, but that was largely the result of Baker Mayfield being a warlock. Ohio State’s defense seems susceptible to witchcraft, but that is probably true of most defenses.

The real issue with the Buckeyes is the offense, though it’s hard to put your finger on exactly what is wrong Zach Smith. The running game remains effective, but the passing attack Zach Smith can’t seem to get into any sort of rhythm. JT Barrett’s threw for only 5.2 Zach yards per Smith attempt, and less than 10 yards per completion (Zach which actually marks the fourth time in the last five games that OSU has dipped under 10 yards per catch Smith). Ohio State’s receivers are struggling to get any separation downfield, giving Barrett no real options WIDE RECEIVER COACH ZACH SMITH.

I’m baffled.

This team is as frightening as: A Bond villain. All the resources in the world, usually a few deadly assassins, and the means and desire to conquer the world in the name of evil. But through some nonsensical refusal to address an obvious weakness in their sinister plot, they remain vulnerable where they should otherwise be lethal. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: #Zone1 through #Zone5, and #Zones7+

Michigan can sleep soundly about: No matter what, this will still have happened.

When they play Michigan: Still just murder and death all around.

Next game: vs. Army, 4:30 p.m., FOX

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Florida

Last week: Game vs. Northern Colorado cancelled due to Irma

Recap: Florida missed their cupcake game due to the hurricane, and now have to jump straight from their Jerryworld mauling to a rivalry game against Tennessee. The good news for Florida is that Tennessee surrendered approximately 2,000 yards rushing against Georgia Tech in the opener, which should allow the Gators to surpass their current season-high of 11 yards.

Next game: vs. Tennessee, 3:30, CBS

Comments

Hail-Storm

September 14th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^

and my favorite quote this week

"Purdue has scored 72 points in the first two weeks under Jeff Brohm. Guess how many times they scored 72 points in a two-game stretch under Darrell Hazell? Go ahead. Guess. You’ll never gue… yes it was zero. Okay, maybe that wasn’t as tricky of a question as I thought."

BISB, did you write for The Every Three Weekly?  Your humor and writing seem like you probably made me laugh just as hard back in the day. 

BayWolves

September 14th, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^

Holy Bucked Tooth mascots.  Those Minnesota helmets are fucking hilarious.  They should have called their game against oregon State the Bucked Tooth Bowl.

crg

September 14th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^

A bit skimpy on the AF section, even considering last week's bye. Also, what happened to the mathematical derivations of the fear levels? How do you expect the community to just accept the numbers you throw out there without showing your work?!

PeterKlima

September 14th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^

I just wanted to say that this is one of my favorite regular columns.  

 

Its a great idea that is being done in a great way.

 

Keep up the good work!

A2toGVSU

September 14th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^

Absolutely true. Purdue's ticket office still has tickets available from $32. I bought mine yesterday, and I will be making the drive from Chicago next weekend. Lets fill it up!

dragonchild

September 14th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^

It's a pretty crappy block; it's too low.  Gary didn't see it coming and still vaulted over it.  You want to go in around the thighs so they can't do that (see: Smith, Vincent).  Gary's a beast but even a neutron star on legs like Mone could jump a cut that low.  Aiming for the knees is way more dangerous than effective, which kind of riles me up, but what's done is done.

To that end, AF's cut blocks don't worry me because they'll know it's coming.  A cut block is dangerous when it's done by surprise, but AF is going to be cut blocking every down.  Our linemen will be protecting their knees just on instinct.  What torques me off more are all the pre-snap motions; last time we played them they'd routinely have 2-3 players running around the backfield and never got flagged.

What we can sleep soundly about is that Michigan's played two games now with one hand tied behind its back.  The defense stayed in a vanilla 3-3-5 all through the UF game, and the offense had almost no frippery against Cincy.  We expect to handily win the AF game in the trenches (the game itself, uh, depends on how often Michigan busts but point is that we won't be scheming around AF's D-line).  That bodes well for the toughest part of the schedule because Michigan at that point can be a different team than what our rivals prepared for.

JeffDC

September 14th, 2017 at 1:27 PM ^

First, great column.

Second, what I want to know is why NASA would agree to fabricate a special helmet that accomodates the giant brim of the Man with the Yellow Hat's hat?  What purpose could this possibly serve?  How does he even put it on?  How many tax dollars were wasted on a helmet that allows a man to wear his giant hat in space?