Opponent Watch 2016: Week 1 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

UCF (1-0, 0-0)

Last week: Beat South Carolina State, 38-0

Recap:

UCF’s 13-game winless streak came to an end in resounding fashion as they demolished South Carolina State. They outgained SCSU 466-223, and Justin Holman threw for 193 yards and two TDs at 6.9 yards per attempt.

This team is as frightening as: If you don't have something nice to say... Fear Level = they have a great personality

Michigan should worry about: Becoming complacent based on a massive superiority in size, speed, scheme, and overall football ability.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Despite being ostensibly a spread-to-run team, UCF only averaged 3.7 yards per carry against SCSU.

When they play Michigan: Hey, it’s football.

This week: Into the maw.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Everybody wins! Well, almost.]

 

Colorado (1-0, 0-0 PAC-12)

Last week: Beat Colorado State, 44-7

Recap: Well, would you look at that. Colorado’s got themselves a pulse. The Buffs led Colorado State 31-0 at the half, and cruised to an easy win. Granted, they were better than a touchdown favorite anyway, but this was a whoopin’. They put up almost 6.5 yards per play, and held Colorado State to 2.2 yards per passing attempt.

The major storyline coming out of this game is Sefo Liufau. A few months ago when Davis Webb decided to head to Cal instead of Boulder, it looked like Colorado would have to try to disguise Kordell Stewart in glasses and a bushy 1920’s moustache to get anything approaching decent QB play. But Liufau recovered miraculously quickly from his foot injury (PROTIP: do not Google Image Search “Lisfranc surgery” after you eat. Or while eating. Or before eating. Or ever.), and on Saturday he racked up 384 total yards, throwing for 9.6 YPA and rushing for 4.7 YPC.

This week they take on Idaho State. They SHOULD win that game easily and roll into the Big House undefeated, but ESPN notes that Colorado State is only 4-2 all-time against FCS opponents. That is not a great ratio.

This team is as frightening as: That bad memory of the thing. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: In addition to a healthy Liufau, they have a bunch of upperclassmen on the defense.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Colorado’s second units along the defensive line are very small for a 3-4 front, including a backup nose tackle who weighs in at 250.

When they play Michigan: Knock. The. Ball. Down.

This week: vs. Idaho State, 5:30 p.m., no TV because either (a) the universe is controlled by a just and loving God or (b) sometimes random chance smiles upon us.

 

Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Kent State, 33-13

Recap: Penn State pulled away a bit late, but this was a 16-13 game at halftime, and remained competitive well into the second half. Considering they were playing a team that is projected to compete for the basement of the MAC (excluding EMU, obviously), the PSU offense struggled, putting up 5.1 yards per play. They never really got Saquon Barkley loose. And as you would suspect, this was all largely the result of the Penn State offensive line continuing to, in a technical football sense, suuuuuuuuuuUUUUUUUuuuuuuuuuuuuuUuUuUuUuck. They only gave up one sack, but they couldn’t get much movement against Kent State. This is not a great sign.

You know who they should move to the offensive line? Joey Julius.

Ever see a 258-pound kicker level a returner?

Joey Julius did it, and it's as great as it sounds. https://t.co/Pij7x6XflS

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 3, 2016

This team is as frightening as: A 258-pound kicker bearing down on you. Sure, you can probably avoid him, but if you can’t, it will hurt, and you will never hear the end of it. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Saquon Barkley remains a dangerous-ass individual.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: James Franklin will still be involved.

When they play Michigan:

BREAKING: Penn State will officially honor Joe Paterno before the Temple game, per the updated promotional schedule. https://t.co/5Lh1n8UkRd

— Onward State (@OnwardState) September 1, 2016

Pitt, at least in its current state, is simply not good enough to be Penn State's rival. We deserve better. https://t.co/2o9M5VFKJ9

— Onward State (@OnwardState) September 8, 2016

Burn the place down. Salt the earth. Pee on the salt.

This week: @ Pitt, noon, ABC/ESPN

 

Wisconsin (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat LSU, 16-14

Recap: Wisconsin out-LSU’d LSU. That is some rarified air/mud. Beating a Top-5* LSU team in any context is impressive. Beating them in a knock-down, drag-out sludgefart of a game is mind-boggling. That is the kind of game LSU has been winning for a decade; turnovers, offensive stagnation, and the tactical dexterity reminiscent of the Battle of the Somme. Wisconsin merely adopted the sludgefart. LSU was born in it. Molded by it.

Cam Cameron caveats notwithstanding, Wisconsin’s defense looked very good, especially along the front seven. They held LSU to 2-10 on 3rd down, which led to LSU running only 50 offensive plays. Leonard Fournette had 138 yards on 23 carries, which is a good day for human running backs but is below average for a Megazord.

Offensively, Wisconsin was pretty bad. They managed only 4.64 yards per play and turned the ball over three times, including two brutal interceptions, one in the end zone, and one that was returned for a touchdown. On the other hand, LSU’s defense was pretty good last year, and does not suffer the same reliance on Cam Cameron as does the LSU offense. Corey Clement looked healthy and able, even if he didn’t get very much traction.

*Yes, yes, polls are bad and they should feel bad. There’s a good chance LSU is this year’s cautionary tale in that regard, a la 2015 Auburn.

This team is as frightening as: Who the hell knows, but more frightening than they looked last week. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Wisconsin physically survived Leonard Fournette.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Wisconsin’ success on the ground largely came when LSU left its safeties way off the ball and gave Wisconsin a numbers advantage in the box. Michigan’s game plan will likely not involve this strategy. Michigan’s game plan is also not likely to involve Brandon Harris in any way.

When they play Michigan: If Wisconsin can beat Michigan State in three weeks… TOP TEN MATCHUP AHOY.

This week: vs. Akron, 3:30 p.m., BTN

 

Rutgers (0-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Washington, 48-13

Recap:

 

Washington grabbed an early 48-3 lead, and managed to fend off a furious Rutgers comeback to hold on for a 48-13 win. This game was 24-0 before Rutgers picked up its second first down. Rutgers managed 4.2 yards per pass and 2.8 yards per rush, while surrendering 10.0 yards per pass. The stats were Hawaii-vs.-Michigan levels of unbalanced through the first half, at which point Washington let off the gas.

There are two ways to look at this. The more generous way is that Chris Ash is going to have to tear things down a bit to build it back up. The way more fun and historically defensible position is “Rutgers remains Rutgers.”

This team is as frightening as: Rutgers. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about:

Josh Hicks is averaging about the same YPC as McCaffery last night. I think we'll see Josh in NYC for the @HeismanTrophy presentation!

— Rutgers Al (@RutgersAl) September 3, 2016

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Even with Heisman Trophy Frontrunner Josh Hicks, Rutgers looks baaaad.

When they play Michigan: Gameday will likely choose another site that week.

This week: vs. Howard, noon, BTN

 

Illinois (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Murray State 52-3

Recap: Murray State was 3-8 last year, including a 2-6 conference record in the Ohio Valley Conference. They were 3-9 (1-7) the year before. So, solid start by Lovie and company, but we probably shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from this.

One thing to note, defensive lineman Gimel President recorded two sacks. Between President, Chunky Clement, and Tito Odenigbo, and Dawuane Smoot, Illinois’ defensive line is among the strongest in the nation (at least in terms of awesome lineman names).

This team is as frightening as: Getting seated with Lena Dunham at an awards dinner. If you just keep your head down, you should be fine. Right? Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Illinois averaged 7.2 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per pass...

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …against Murray State.

When they play Michigan: Juice WIlliams can't hurt us this time.

This week: vs. North Carolina, 7:30, BTN

 

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Furman, 28-13

Not that Fur Man

Recap: We are going to reserve judgment on Michigan State. We have attempted to draw similar conclusions based on early season Michigan State struggles in the past, particularly the first two weeks of 2013. We shall be more cautious in even this most judgmental of spaces.

That said, Michigan State was in a competitive game with Furman, an FCS team who finished 4-7 last year (2-5 in the SoCon). After an MSU interception, Furman had the ball in Michigan State territory with under 12 minutes left with a chance to tie the game. Michigan State struggled offensively; Tyler O’Connor had the kind of outing that looks okay in the box score but portends varying levels of doom in the future, and LJ Scott and Madre London combined for only 119 yards on 25 carries (4.76 YPC).

Defensively, Michigan State's front seven looks vulnerable. Malik McDowell remains a hellbeast. Everybody else struggled in one way or another. 

The bad news for Michigan State is that they already have a bye week, which isn’t the ideal placement. The good news is that the bye week is this week as the result of Alabama cancelling the home-and-home series that would have had MSU in Tuscaloosa in week one, which, in hindsight, probably worked out better for them.

This team is as frightening as: Oh, you aren't getting me off the #respektwagon that easily. Fear Level = a still very respektful 8.5

Michigan should worry about: L.J. Scott looks a hell of a lot like LeVeon Bell. Opponent caveats apply, of course, but he showed good patience, vision and balance and broke a bunch of tackles.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: When Michigan State turned things around in 2013, they did so by benching Andrew Maxwell in favor of Connor Cook. Do they have a Connor Cook on the bench right now? And unlike 2013, BOTH sides of the ball are showing real weaknesses.

When they play Michigan: This is the year.

This week: Bye

 

Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Howard, 52-13

Recap: Howard is a MEAC team (Baby Seal U.’s conference) that finished 1-10 last year (including a loss to Baby Seal U.). So yeah we’re not talking about this.

This team is as frightening as: /looks around for nearest object

Uh… a stapler. Moves a little bit in very predictable ways, can hurt you but only if you really go out of your way to hurt yourself. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Perry Hills threw greater than zero passes, and did not throw a single pick. The previous statement was not true of any game in 2015.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan is better than Howard IMO.

When they play Michigan: Oh hey there DJ.

This week: @ FIU (why do people keep going there? Like, is there a good burger joint or a water park or something that everyone wants to hit up?), 7:30 p.m. Friday, CBSSN

 

Iowa (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Miami (NTM) 45-21

Recap: Iowa beat up a MAC team. They celebrated this victory by signing Kirk Ferentz to a ten year, $49.5 million contract.

I’m not going to rehash the myriad ways in which this extension is stupid. Suffice it to say they made it prohibitively expensive to get rid of a guy they probably would have gotten rid of years ago if it wasn’t prohibitively expensive to do so at the time. And it gets MORE expensive if he wins seven games per year, which I think we can all agree is pretty damn pedestrian in the Big Ten West. And you’re never going to get any of those damages mitigated by Ferentz’s next job, because this is his last job. And there was ABSOLUTELY no reason to extend him, because there is zero chance he was going to be poached.

Okay, I guess we’re going to rehash it a bit.

This team is as frightening as:

Creepy and menacing, but still kinda goofy. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Josey Jewell.

Seriously. Watch the hell out.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: For those who believe in advanced statistics, Iowa still isn't all that good.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will be facing a $50 million dollar head coach.

This week: El Assico! vs. Iowa State, 7:30, BTN

Indiana (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at FIU, 34-13

Recap: Indiana pulled away from FIU on the strength of 16 defensive points, which…

/re-reads box score

/loads box score on different website

/calls Indiana athletic department

/calls National Weather Service

...okay, I guess that happened. We’re just going to continue as if this series of events does not portend the End Times. That’s cool.

If you believe the series of events propagated by ESPNU (presumably in conjunction with the Lizard People), Indiana’s defense scored three times, recording a safety and two interception returns. None said much of anything about Indiana’s defense; the first pick was the result of the FIU quarterback throwing a stop route while the receiver ran a slant-and-wander-aimlessly-downfield, and the second was an screen pass to Tacopants.

Indiana’s offensive performance was up-and-down. They gained 486 yards at 6.08 yards per play, which is pretty good, but they only scored 18 offensive points. They struggled to finish drives; six of their first seven drives reached FIU territory, but between a missed field goal, a botched snap on another field goal, and a fumble, IU only got three points out of those trips.

Between opponent caveats, new quarterback caveats, and half-the-team-suspended caveats, outlook hazy ask again later.

This team is as frightening as: I just said outlook hazy ask again later. Fear Level = Shrodinger’s Cat

Michigan should worry about: Still the offense.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Still the defense.

When they play Michigan: CHAOS. Always CHAOS.

This week: vs. Ball State, 4:00, ESPNEWS

Ohio State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Bowling Green 77-10

Recap: Bowling Green grabbed an early 7-0 lead when JT Barrett threw a pick-six.

That was it. That was all that happened.

This team is as frightening as: A team that can put up 776 yards in a game. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Sigh. Mike Weber looks like what we expected Mike Weber to look like.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

When they play Michigan: I am nowhere near ready to contemplate this game yet.

This week: vs. Tulsa, 3:30, ABC

Comments

creelymonk10

September 9th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

Maryland's stapler comparison is spot on, I don't know how you consistently think of these great "frightening as" comparisons. Also I've never seen a head rocked in such a way as that Rutger's player, pretty scary stuff.

ak47

September 9th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

If fingers crossed Michigan does what they should early there is a good chance I both watch more of and am more emotionally invested in pitt beating penn state this week.

dragonchild

September 9th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^

was a successful Defensive Coordinator, who thought he had it all.  Until one day. . .

(record scratch)

He became Maryland's Head Coach!  And he's about to find that playing against Harbaugh, ain't as fun as working for him.

It's time for some Terpin' and Derpin'!

DJ Durkin is. . . toast!

/ Rated PG-13

bronxblue

September 9th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^

Man, if PSU was a dog it would have been out down a long time ago. People talk about ND as rival they want to see lose, but if UM can just stomp a mushole in PSU for eternity, I'd be happy.

Gr1mlock

September 9th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

Re: why people go to FIU, my grandma lives near there, and there's actually a pretty good mini golf place right near their campus, and the literal best flea market in the world is about a 20 minute drive.   Think there may actually be a water park as well, although I don't remember 100%.  Those are my best guesses.  

-NTB-

September 9th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^

I appreciate every oppenent having a different fear level, even if some of them aren't real numbers. In the future, some team like Indiana could be an irrational number like the square root of -1. 

BlueLikeJazz

September 9th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^

where I was really worried that there would be no Opponent Watch this week. 

Not sure whether that says more about the sad state of my life, or how great this feature is. Probably both.

Blue Balls Afire

September 9th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^

Not gonna lie, Shroedinger's Cat and IU scare me.  #hottake.  Kevin Wilson is a good coach, they run the spread well (or will by the time they play us), their defense is better than last year, they are at a troubling place on our schedule . . . ugh.  

FieldingBLUE

September 9th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^

Watching the State game live, I thought McDowell lacked effort quite often even though he made a handful of great plays.

Rewatched it and "graded" it out. He had three 5* plays (hellbeast), nine 4* plays (damn good), but many many in the 1*/2*/3* plays (3/9/16). Every snap he took at DE he was ineffective and handled by a single tackle. Did not gain the edge once. He was double-teamed about 20-30% of the time. By Furman. The Paladins smartly used his aggressiveness against him often, blasting him with a FB on a Wham play at least once and running action past him as he motored upfield, seemingly oblivious to down/distance.

He's a special talent and will likely get better as the year goes on. But when he's on the sideline, the MSU defense goes from really good to meh. The middle was soft when he was out of there.

Bocheezu

September 9th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^

I watched the first half of that game; Colorado does run tempo and didn't look bad at it.  CSU was probably the worst offense I've seen in a while (their QB probably skipped 4-5 passes on 3rd down).  That game could be an IU-esque chaos situation.

Perkis-Size Me

September 9th, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^

This is why I love this site. The witty, sarcastic writing is just perfect. 

"Wisconsin merely adopted the sludgefart. LSU was born in it. Molden by it." Honestly, you can't make that stuff up. 

Looking forward to many, many more. 

L'Carpetron Do…

September 9th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^

This might be the most amazing thing I've ever read on this site:

That is the kind of game LSU has been winning for a decade; turnovers, offensive stagnation, and the tactical dexterity reminiscent of the Battle of the Somme. Wisconsin merely adopted the sludgefart. LSU was born in it. Molded by it.