Opponent Watch 2016: Week 12 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

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Upchurch

The Road Ahead:

Ohio State

When they play Michigan: This is a pretty simple week.

We can discard with the usual trappings of this column. Every other week of the season we recap the opponents’ previous games, and we analyze how frightening they are, and we look at what should worry you about those teams and what shouldn’t. Those are necessary artifices when we are trying to add some color to a game three weeks out against Maryland, or to put a win over Illinois in greater context. The Game needs no added color. It needs no greater context. It brings its own.

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You don’t need me to tell you what can make you feel better about this game. Nothing can, and you know that. You don’t need me to tell you why you should worry about this game, assuming you have the power of memory. And we don’t need to recap Ohio State’s previous games, nor Michigan’s for that matter. They don’t particularly matter, nor do they tell us much of note. The Game is an entity untethered from the rest of the season. Last year, Michigan came in as a top-10 team, and got their doors blown off at home. In 2013, 6-5 Michigan was a two-point conversion away from beating 11-0 Ohio State. In 2011, it was Luke Fickell’s 6-5 Ohio State team was one overthrown bomb away from beating Brady Hoke’s Sugar Bowl team. And the John Cooper era was one long video game where the player breezes through the level but can’t get past the boss.

The rest of the season has to be played, of course. Each week the two teams dutifully clash with their respective opponents. But each does so with one eye on the other, like two Homeric heroes cutting their way towards each other on an ancient battlefield. And sometimes, when things line up just so, the teams arrive as they do this year; with each having something extra weighing on the outcome. Not since 2006 have both teams had so much relying on the final score. But that simply affects the week leading up to The Game, and the days, weeks, and months afterward.

The hatred and familiar loathing take on a different hue in light of the conference and playoff implications, but the underlying artwork is unchanged. The first time the ghastly tones of that abhorrent fight song hit your ears, or the first time some Buckeye player throws up an O-H, or (god forbid) the first time the broadcast shows that vapid, poorly-cased narcissism sausage, Big Nut, you will be transported back to the place where the context is irrelevant, and the hatred is all-encompassing. Is this 1970? 1986? 2016? Who knows. Who cares. It’s these guys. I *hate* these guys. Get ‘em. F***ing get ‘em.

For those who demand greater context? Fine. Win, and there is a fooball game next weekend. Michigan goes to the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time. You see Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton and Jourdan Lewis and Jake Butt and the rest of the seniors play to hoist a trophy. You will get to see more Jabrill Peppers. Michigan will be the favorite to earn a playoff berth. A win sends Ohio State, who entered this week as the #2 team in the playoff rankings, home as the #3 team… in their division. Lose, and none of these things happens, and the one-sided nature of the rivalry continues unabated for another year.

But that’s Saturday morning stuff. That’s just what they’ll talk about on College Gameday outside the Horseshoe. Noon on Saturday is about Maize and Blue and Scarlet and Gray and a hundred urgent, violent moments. Let God and the committee sort the rest out.

This week: Everything. Noon. ABC.

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Hawaii (5-7, 4-4 MWC)

Last week: Won at Fresno State, 14-13

Recap: Hawaii took down Fresno State, and is now one win away from Bowl eligibility (they get 13 games because they’re in the middle of the ocean and that’s how things work). To get there, they will have to win a rivalry game for the Voyages That Would Have Killed Anyone In The First 95% of Recorded History Trophy, as Umass will travel more than 5,000 miles to play the Rainbow Warriors. It would be quite something, after the entire offseason of laughter about Michigan’s no-conference schedule, if all three teams made a bowl game.

This week: vs. UMass, Midnight (Hawaii -7.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: I told y’all about the Buffs…]

UCF (6-5, 4-3 AAC)

Last week: Lost to Tulsa, 35-20

Recap: Got whooped by Tulsa. Don’t care. Bowl eligible.

Gonna get throttled by Willie Taggart and USF this week. Still don’t care. Still bowl eligible.

This week: at South Florida, Noon, CBSSN (USF -10)

Colorado (9-2, 7-1 Pac-12)

Last week: Beat Washington State, 38-24

Recap: I told y’all in Week 6* that Colorado was going 10-2. They were 4-2 at the time, and still had Stanford, UCLA, and Washington State in front of them. Their odds, according to Bill C?

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Let’s check back in with them today:

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I’M NOT SAYIN’. I’M JUST SAYIN’.

And as we discussed last week, Colorado has a real shot to make the playoff. Last weekend played out as well as possible for their chances; they beat Wazoo, Michigan won, and Louisville lost. They still probably need Michigan to win out, and they probably need something bad to happen to Clemson, but they’re a win over Utah and a conference championship game win over the Apple Cup winner away from making things really interesting.

*Okay, so maybe I also declared “Colorado is definitely going 11-1” after week 5. But, in my defense, shut up.

This week: vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m., FOX (Colorado -10)

Penn State (9-2, 7-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 39-0

Recap: Penn State lost to Michigan by 39 points. Penn State outscored Rutgers by 39 fewer points than did Michigan. Coincidence, or confirmation? Facts only.

Penn State’s shocking inability to hang more than 39 points in a freezing rainstorm aside, this was another throttling on par with those laid down by Michigan, Ohio State, and even Michigan State. They outgained Rutgers 549-87, and held the Knights to 48 yards passing and 39 yards rushing. Penn State had four guys with more rushing yards than Rutgers had as a team.

Penn State now has to beat Michigan State to probably lock up either a New Year’s Six bid or a trip to the Big Ten Title game (there’s a chance that if they lose in the title game, they would be knocked out of the big bowls).

This week: vs. Michigan State, 3:30, ESPN (Penn State -13)

Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Purdue, 49-20

Recap: Wisconsin trailed this game 3-0, and Purdue was driving. Approximately 17 milliseconds later, the game was 14-3, Wisconsin. Such is the nature of Purdue; under ideal laboratory conditions, Purdue can have good things. However, those football isotopes are unstable, and rapidly break down, not unlike Purdue pass protection. And oh yeah, that sumbitch broke down in a hurry.

Wisconsin now just needs a home win over Minnesota to win the B1G West.

Oh, but there is one little thing to keep an eye on: if Wisconsin loses to Minnesota, and Iowa beats Nebraska, all four of those teams will finish with 6-3 records in conference. According to the tiebreakers set up by the Big Ten, that means that somehow Western Michigan wins the West.

Tell me you’d complain.

This week: vs. Minnesota, 3:30, BTN (Wisconsin -14)

Rutgers (2-9, 0-8 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 39-0

Recap: I don’t know where to begin. I stare at this box score, and I read the Hague Treaties, and I just don’t know where to go with this. Rutgers faced four beatdowns in conference this year that would be remarkable for any team to experience once in a season. In games against Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State, Rutgers:

  • Was outscored 224-0;
  • Was outgained 2258-382;
  • Averaged 31.5 passing yards per game at 1.8 yards per attempt;
  • Completed 26% of their passes;
  • Gave up 100 first downs and earned 24;
  • Converted 8 of 57 (14%) 3rd and 4th downs;
  • Surrendered 39 of 67 (58%) 3rd and 4th downs

You could have made an argument for it before this weekend, but with Kansas’s win over Texas, Rutgers has formally taken over the title of Worst Major Conference Team.

At least the basketball team is 4-0…

This week: at Maryland, noon, ESPNNEWS but if you flip over to this game at any point, even during commercials, I have instructed Comcast to revoke your cable privileges. (Maryland -13.5)

Illinois (3-8, 2-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 28-0

Recap: This is only going to look good by comparison, but Illinois was hamblasted by Iowa despite Iowa doing its best to win this game 6-0. The Illini were outgained 342-198. They were outgained by 2.13 yards per play. They threw for 3.3 yards per pass. They rushed for 2.5 yards per carry. THey have lost six games by more than 23 points.

And they need to quit doing card stuff in the student section.

This week: at Northwestern, noon, BTN (Northwestern -15.5)

Michigan State (3-8, 1-7 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 17-16

Recap: Coming into the Michigan game, there was a half-joking theory that State’s entire season was Mark Dantonio sandbagging for the Wolverines. As it turns out, they were really sandbagging for Urban Meyer and company. State scored a touchdown to pull within a point at 17-16 with about four minutes left. He did so by handing the ball to LJ Scott a bunch of times and letting the rest of the team jump around hype-man style while Scott did the damn thing by himself. Michigan State then gave the ball to Scott on the two point conversion, who proceeded to... nah I'm just kidding they let Tyler O'Connor throw the ball. It did not go well.

Michigan State closes against Penn State with a chance to...

...uh...

...be on TV for a while.

This week: at Penn State, 3:30, ESPN (Penn State -12)

Maryland (5-6, 2-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Nebraska, 28-7

Recap: Not today, Satan. I already wrote a couple hundred words on Rutgers. I’ve paid my dues.

This week: vs. Rutgers, noon, ESPNNEWS (Maryland -13.5)

Iowa (7-4, 5-3 B1G)

Last week: Beat Illinois 28-0

Recap: Rather than receive the second half kickoff, Kirk Ferentz took the wind. That’s right: In a situation where each team was going to have the wind for 15 minutes, so Kirk Ferentz chose to give the opponent the ball at the 25, rather than take the ball on his own 25.

So, if you’re keeping tabs at home, the going rate for coaching one good game per year is ten years at $4.5 million per.

This week: vs. Nebraska, 3:30, ABC (Iowa -3)

Notre Dame (4-7)

Last week: lost to Virginia Tech, 34-31

Recap: While they technically aren’t on the schedule for this year, they are on the schedule for future years, so I think it’s important to note that, contrary to what people may believe, Notre Dame is 4-7.

This week: at USC, 3:30, ABC (USC -17)

Comments

mGrowOld

November 23rd, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

All games not involving Michigan = ignores analytics, coaches circa 1965 era football, makes stupid and nonsensical decisions on consistent basis

Games with Michigan = Bob Stitt

Which, by the way I FUCKING PREDICTED AND TOLD EVERYBODY HERE HE WOULD BECOME THE WEEK BEFORE THE GAME CAUSE THAT'S WHAT HE ALWAYS DOES.  

jmblue

November 23rd, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^

We're always talking about how we gave all those games away to Iowa.  But that's to Ferentz's credit.  He may not be an ace at game theory but he's clearly very good at the player- development side of coaching.

Ferentz's teams are sound fundamentally.  They may lack athleticism but are well-schooled, block and tackle well, and generally avoid making costly game-changing mistakes.  His love of punting also makes more sense when he has a guy who can regularly pin teams inside their 10.

 

bhinrichs

November 23rd, 2016 at 4:16 PM ^

 

There is some evidence from both the offensive and defensive UFRs that Iowa did some new interesting things/tweaks, that we didn't respond to well or at all.

For example, on offense, Iowa was using "Wham" blocking, which UM didn't not counter appropriately (Seth had a neck-sharpies article on this after the game)

Another example, from UFR, was that when Iowa was on defense they were utilizing the scrape-exchange common against zone read offenses, which is what many of the Peppers' plays are.  There are well known counters to those that RR's offense used but Harbaugh never pulled out of his bag of tricks the whole game.  (sorry, not proficient at using the yellow quote box):

 

>>You mentioned something about a scrape exchange?

>>Iowa was scrape exchanging all night when Michigan showed them zone read action. If you're rusty on your RichRod era UFRs, on a scrape exchange the DE and OLB swap responsibilities.

>>Since I watched the Rodriguez era at Michigan this is familiar to me. Also familiar to me: the various counter-punches RR's Michigan threw at this.

>> JH's Michigan did not have this in its back pocket. On their last run of the game they were still getting got by Iowa's exchange, which continued to induce doomed Peppers keeps.

>>I was frustrated watching this, as Michigan is usually very good about anticipating responses to what they're doing and hitting at the weak spots of those approaches. Despite a whole game to come up with a response to this, they kept doing the doomed thing.

 

Jonesy

November 23rd, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^

He correctly went for it on 4th down contrary to the rest of the season (career).  He gave the ball to their best player over and over again while ignoring him the rest of the season.  I'm sure there was more but those stand out as him doing something special that would not have happened if he were playing anyone else.

Perkis-Size Me

November 23rd, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^

Somehow Iowa manages to look like shit against everyone they play, but when Michigan comes in, that's when Ferentz decides to actually coach. He does it maybe once a year, and always saves it for Michigan if they're on the schedule. 

Granted several of those wins came against awful Michigan teams. But consistently getting out-coached by Kirk Ferentz, a man who coaches the most boring, predictable form of football, does hurt the soul quite a bit. 

schreibee

November 23rd, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^

Dude - Seriously, DUDE - we give him shit because he only coaches 1 good game a year, and that one game is always against US!!!

How do you not get that?!?!?!?!?!?

He just elected to give the opponent the ball to start BOTH HALVES!!!! 

The real question is why does Michigan - through 4 different coaching staffs now - invariably play their WORST game of the year against Iowa? One for the Wise Old Heads to ponder...

Blue in Yarmouth

November 23rd, 2016 at 10:32 AM ^

and I don't know at what point I arrived here, but at this point I just can't believe that UM can beat OSU until it happens. Maybe it's a defense mechanism or something, that I just don't even entertain the idea that we could beat them so that when we lose it doesn't hurt so much. 

I mean, I look at the teams and see that we certainly have the talent to win, but we have before too yet still the universe found ways to conspire against us and bring OSU out on top. That is the biggest reason I want a win this year, so that beating OSU no longer feels like an impossible task and goes back to feeling like the coin flip it always used to. I hate feeling like it just won't happen.

Pepto Bismol

November 23rd, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

I get it, Blue in Yarmouth. I really do. And that's why I'm stepping in, here.

Guys, we're going to beat Ohio State. We're going to beat them this Saturday. This isn't an X's and O's thing.  Don't dwell on stats or the QB situation. This is football. Shit happens. None of us know how it will work.

- Iowa beat us while Beathard completed 8 passes. They ran their entire offense through one single backup RB.

- Penn State beat OSU this year despite being outgained by 150 yards and 15 minutes of possession.  Their QB, Trace McSorley completed 8 passes. 

- Last year, MSU beat Ohio State in Columbus while their starting QB Connor Cook was in street clothes.  Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry combined to complete 8 passes in the upset win.

- Last week, MSU was a 2-point conversion away from beating OSU again.  O'Connor and Terry again combined to complete...?  Any guesses?  8 passes.

There is no special secret for how OSU has beaten Michigan.  They've simply had a much better team.  We are not that team anymore.  Last year we got our asses handed to us by Elliott and Barrett -- this is not DJ Durkin's Ryan Glasgow-less defense anymore. 

 

Ohio State is just a football team.  They have good players.  So do we.  Our defense will answer the call.  Peppers and Allen will flip the field.  Harbaugh/Drevno/Fisch will find our players the space to pop a few big plays. 

It's just a football game.  Ohio State is not unbeatable. They're just 20 year old kids waiting to make a mistake.  11 of 12 just doesn't happen.  Just like MSU's mind-blowing run of 11-win seasons with 3 star poop recruits just doesn't happen.  When the universe corrects improbable trends, it corrects violently.  We're done taking the back seat to these clowns.  Gird your loins, Blue in Yarmouth. 

We're going to win this game. 

 

volnedan

November 23rd, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

Pepto - I really want to jump on board your train, I really do.  But nothing from this season has showed me our team is well prepared to play on the road.  Even the first few series at Rutgers were pretty bad, but then 'Rutgers' happened.

We should have crushed MSU, but Harbaugh got out coached by Dantonio.  Ditto for Iowa, but again, Harbaugh got out coached.  It's not that Ferentz turned into Belichek, but he played on his team strengths and did enough to win.  Why does Harbaugh turn into late Lloyd Carr at end of games, especially on the road?  

True, Barrett hasn't been much of a threat passing, and I think our defense is better than OSU's.  But they are going to be on the field for a loooooong time, and they will be worn out by the 3rd quarter unless the offense can somehow sustain a few drives, which I don't see happening.  

Again, I hope to all things holy that I'm wrong.

olm_go_blue

November 23rd, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^

re: rutgers. any team can get stopped for a few drives. You have to squint pretty hard to find negatives on a 78-0 blow out.

Also, I disagree that Dantonio "outcoached" Harbaugh. MSU had one good drive to start the game, then was down 20 in the 4th, at home, while getting every call under the sun. Guess that means Meyer really got outcoached?

InterM

November 23rd, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^

So you're saying Speight only needs to play long enough to complete 8 passes, then we can sit him down to avoid further injury and O'Korn can take it from there?  All those analytics and it comes down to this:  Speight for 8!

Jonesy

November 23rd, 2016 at 5:54 PM ^

I'd be a lot more confident if Iowa and Indiana hadn't happened.  As it is, since i'll be watching on dvr here on the west coast, i'm tempted to check the score first and save myself an ulcer... I won't, but i'm tempted.  I have no confidence in us winning this game with our anemic qb-less offense and susceptible run defense.

michgoblue

November 23rd, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^

Such a well done piece!  I look forward to this column every single week (except the one you skipped that obviously caused us to lose the Iowa game!!) for the jokes and light-hearted mocking of our opponents.  This completely different take for The Game was absolutely perfect, and perfectly captures how every one of us feels about this week.

 

MGoBlueMyself

November 23rd, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^

Agreed. All joking aside, there is nothing to make any one of us feel better or more light-hearted about Saturday. We know their strengths, weaknesses, and every down they've played against every opponent. We know ours as well. No matter how many of us on here might thump their chest about our chances, there is nothing to say at this point that will make us feel anything less than 100% unbridled excited terror. This game means everything to both sides. Let's roll.  

Hugh White

November 23rd, 2016 at 10:55 AM ^

"John Cooper era was one long video game where the player breezes through the level but can’t get past the boss." Nice. Frequently, the secret is to avoid injury/losing lives before the boss comes on screen. So here's to healed collarbones! Go Blue.