Opponent Watch 2016: Preview, Part 1 Comment Count

BiSB

Greetings friends! We have been apart too long. Sorry, I meant to stop by for the thing, but I got busy and couldn't make it. Hope it went well. So, whatcha been up to?



As you may remember, every week we take a spirited jaunt through the Michigan schedule in an attempt to forage for useful information and hate-berries. The latter are plentiful. We just hope to scoop up a bit of the former in the process.

There has been no football yet, so for the next couple of weeks we're just going to take a quick overview of 2015 with a dash of a preview of the coming season. I also threw in some crootin' info, because what the hell. The bad news is that the first half of this preview is gonna be bleak. Not for Michigan, mind you. It's going to be a Bonus Area for Michigan, in which they will likely get to E. Honda hundred-hand slap the hell out of this lineup of old hatchbacks. But in terms of interest... yeah. Notsomuch.

About Last Year:

"Fans have a constitutional right to expect success and have high expectations" ~ James Joseph Harbaugh

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step" ~Lao Tzu



"That step better not be to the inside, son." ~Jehu Chesson, I'm assuming

The Road Ahead:

Hawaii

Last year: 3-10 (0-8 MWC)

Recap: As usual, Hawaii was outstanding. Temperatures remained almost exclusively in the 80- to 90-degree range. Diverse inhabitants, flora, and fauna. The Hawaiian culture is distinctive, yet each island has its own particular character. Really a must-see.

Oh, the football team? No. No no no. My bad. The football team was an abomination. 120th in the country in F+ rating. Purdue-esque offensive yards-per-play numbers (rushing, passing, and total) despite being in the Mountain West. Their only wins were against UC Davis, UL Monroe, and Colorado. They were outscored 463 to 229. It is no wonder Hawaii decided to pull the plug on the Norm Chow experience after three and a half seasons yielded an 11-39 record (with a 4-28 record in the MWC). Their new coach is some guy. His team will be bad for at least as two weeks, which is as long as it will matter for Michigan fans.

The good news for Hawaii is… uh… **shuffles papers**… ah, yes, here it is. They have a good punter. Rigoberto Sanchez averaged over 45 yards per punt last year. And… well… did I mention the weather?

When last we saw them: Michigan is 2-0 against Hawaii all-time, with a 17-point win in 1986 and a 31-point win in 1998.

Crootin’: Keep scrolling, champ. 2016 rank: #104; 5-year ranking: #100

This team is as frightening as: A gentle ocean breeze. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Hawaii will have a game under its belt before they play Michigan. Only one team will be working through the first-game kinks and jitters, and it won’t be the Rainbow Warriors.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Sleep. Literally. Hawaii has to fly to actual damn dingo-ate-my-linebacker Australia (a 10+ hour flight) to open their season against Cal. Then they fly back to Hawaii (another 10+ hour flight). Then they fly to Michigan a couple of days later (another 9+ hours in the air), then they play Michigan at noon Eastern, which is 6:00 a.m. Hawaii time. So, you’ve got a group of gigantic humans who don’t fit in airplane seats to begin with, you’re asking them to spend three half-days in the air through eleventy six time zones in the week and a half before the game, and then asking them to play a Harbaugh team before their bodies think it is time for breakfast.

When they play Michigan: Hawaii’s quarterback might ‘accidentally’ Moxon their Athletic Director six or seven times during the game.

First game:

Kangaroo

[AFTER THE JUMP: It doesn’t get much better]

UCF

Last year: 0-12 (0-8 AAC)

Recap:

Hans

They lost to Tulane. They lost to FIU at home. They lost to Furman at home. They were outscored by 23.8 points per game. They were outgained by more than 2.4 yards per play. They finished dead gad-gum last in F+. They played eight teams who were ranked lower than #70 in F+ and lost Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

They weren’t bad. Bad implies they were somewhere on the spectrum. They weren’t Blutarsky’s zero point zero GPA. They were Daniel Simpson Day; they had no GPA. All courses (like most of their passes) incomplete.

When last we saw them: Michigan and UCF have never played.

Crootin’: Not all that bad, actually. They actually finished ahead of three Big Ten teams last year: yes them, yep you’re two for two, and Illinois. They didn’t grab any serious difference-makers who will be relevant to the second week of 2016, though, so for Michigan fans, They Are Who We Thought They Were. It is worth noting that they flipped a high-3* WR (Dredrick Snelson) from Minnesota on signing day. Snelson was also being legit pursued by Penn State, and reported totally 110% committable offers from Bama, Notre Dame, and a bunch of others. 2016 rank: #61; #100 5-year ranking: #59

This team is as frightening as: what is the opposite of “yes." Fear Level = 1.5

Michigan should worry about: There are people alive who have seen UCF record a 12-1 season with a Fiesta Bowl win. Those people are currently less than two years old. In fact, before last year, UCF actually had a better record than Michigan in three consecutive seasons. Much of their roster remembers a time when they didn’t suck.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Last year still happened.

When they play Michigan: Late in the third quarter, Harbaugh will have to be restrained by an assistant coach after the referees miss a neutral zone infraction on a play that goes for a six yard gain. The score will be 41-3. We will somehow not find this odd.

First game: vs. South Carolina State, 7:00 p.m., ESPN3

 

Colorado

Last year: 4-9 (1-8 Pac-12)

Recap: They weren’t as bad as UCF.

Look, shut up and take the compliment, okay?

The season actually looked somewhat promising. Despite a loss to the aforementioned Team-That-Is-Not-Fake Hawaii in their opener, they ripped off wins against UMass, Colorado State, and Additional-Totally-Real-Team Nicholls State, and actually had Oregon on the ropes for much of the Buffalo’s conference opener. And then some stuff happened and some other stuff happened and then there was way more sadness and depression than one would think possible given the sheer volume of pot available in Boulder, Colorado. The highlight of Colorado’s back nine was a 17-13 win over Oregon State. You remember Oregon State:

They lost some close games and had some bad turnover luck, but they still weren’t particularly good. Of course, “Not Particularly Good” makes Colorado the best team on Michigan’s non-conference slate by a healthy margin.

When last we saw them: Michigan has never ever played Colorado ever don’t bother searching for it on Youtube because there’s nothing to see here.

2016 Crootin’: Meh. 2016 rank: #66; 5-year ranking: #56

This team is as frightening as: Being 64 yards from victory with six seconds left.  Your odds are really good. Until they aren't. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: If quarterback Sefo Liufau returns at full strength from his LIsfranc injury, Colorado will be returning pretty much all of their relevant production.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Colorado’s defensive front is a little undersized, and was among the worst in the country at the point of attack and in yards per carry allowed. This is not a recipe for beating Michigan.

When they play Michigan: knock the ball down

First game: vs. Colorado State, 8:00 p.m., ESPN

 

Penn State

Last year: 7-6 (4-4 B1G)

Recap: So, the thing about Penn State last season is…

…they had some trouble with…

…when it came to…

…dude…

DAMMIT WILL YOU STOP SACKING ME FOR TWO FREEKING SECONDS SO I CAN TALK.

Okay, thank you. So as I was saying… yeah, Penn State’s offensive line last year was sub-par. This was compounded by the fact that Christian Hackenberg displayed the mobility of a ficus plant, and he (and I honestly don’t know if this is hyperbole) exhibited signs of PTSD in the pocket. Hackenberg also developed a Chuck Knoblauch-like inability to complete short throws. All of this swirled together in a bouillabaisse of offensive suck. A gumbo of ineptitude. A pho of derp.

The defense, on the other hand, was fantastic, led by a dominant defensive line featuring Anthony Zettel, Carl Nassib, and Austin Johnson. Those three are gone, but they get Nyeem Wartman-White back at linebacker from a season-long injury.  The back seven will probably be good to great. The position players are gonna be good. But that O-line, man...

When last we saw them: As you can see above, Michigan’s defensive line spent much of the afternoon feng shui-ing the Penn State offensive line, and Michigan won the kind of game where the score never gets out of hand but the outcome never feels in doubt.

2016 Crootin’: Penn State’s class is top-heavy but not altogether bad. They landed the consensus #1 running back, Miles Sanders, the #1 OG, Michael Menet, and the #4 WDE in Shane Simmons. Sanders is a heck of an athlete with great acceleration, balance and ability to operate in tight spaces; if you think “smaller Braxton Miller,” you might be in the ballpark. Simmons made significant waves at the Under Armour game as one of the top performers, and will probably be in the rotation for Penn State as a true freshman.

Beyond that, though, Penn State suffered some unfortunate* setbacks. Four-star Pennsylvania safety Andrew Pryts flipped to Stanford on signing day, following in the footsteps of former Penn State commits Karamo Dioubate (Temple), Michael Dwumfour (Michigan), Quinn Nordin (ditto), and Lavert Hill (and another one). They also missed out on Khaleke Hudson (Yessir), who was trying to commit to Penn State last summer when James Franklin was like “hold off, kid, we’re trying to get Batman on an official.” 2016 rank: #20; 5-year ranking: #26

*Did You Know: the Chinese word for “unfortunate” also translates to “LOL James Franklin?” Such a rich language.

This team is as frightening as: Getting pulled into an argument with a Penn State fan about literally any subject. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Watch Saquon Barkley here:

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Watch Penn State’s offensive line here:

When they play Michigan: Something something #409

First game: vs. Kent State, 3:30 p.m., BTN

 

Wisconsin

Last year: 10-3 (6-2 B1G)

Recap: Wisconsin opened up the season being tubthumped by Alabama (though, to be fair, some Big Ten teams would surrender their entire supply of Axe body spray to only lose by 18 points to Alabama). They then lost to 10-6 to Iowa in what some would describe as a good old-fashioned hard-nosed football game, but which other, more accurate people would describe as “a big steaming pile of shit.” They also lost a game of a similar aroma to Northwestern 13-7 late in the year.

So Wisconsin’s record doesn’t tell us much about their quality last year. After the Alabama game, they played the among the easiest schedules of any Power Five team over the last 11 games. They played literally the easiest possible Big Ten schedule: a Big Ten West schedule with crossover games against Maryland and Rutgers. This, of course, was on the heels of their 2014 Big Ten schedule where their crossover games were… yup, Maryland and Rutgers.

This year, though, the bill has come due for Wisconsin’s scheduling juju. The Badgers get to open the season against LSU, featuring Leonard Fournette and Wisconsin’s former defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. They then get back-to-back-to-back-to-back games at Michigan State, at Michigan, against Ohio State, and at Iowa.

When last we saw them: Believe it or not, Wisconsin is a member of the same conference to which Michigan belongs. You may not remember this, though, because they literally didn’t play Michigan when the last coach was here. Either team’s last coach.

Wisconsin put two straight face-stompings on RichRod’s 3-3-5 in 2009 and 2010, but Michigan owns a 49-14 all-time advantage.

2016 Crootin’: Wisconsin landed 26 players, but only three of them were composite four-stars. OT Cole Van Lanen is the most highly rated, but is OL so one would guess he will redshirt. If you believe practice hype*, though, four-star defensive tackle Garrett Rand is pushing for playing time right away, as is WR A.J. Taylor. Beyond that, it’s a non-descript pile of decent football players. On Wisconsin. 2016 rank: #32; 5-year ranking: #34

*Never believe practice hype. Why would you believe practice hype? In fact, if you jumped down here before you read the rest of the sentence about the practice hype, stop reading that sentence. I’ll save you the time: a 279-pound true freshman nose tackle probably isn’t going to be stepping in and playing against LSU.

This team is as frightening as: A non-descript pile of decent football players. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: A healthy Corey Clement can still be dangerous, and Wisconsin returns most of their large (presumably redheaded) offensive line.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Between Leonard Fournette and LJ Scott, Wisconsin’s defensive front will be properly tenderized by the time they come rolling into the Big House.

When they play Michigan: Hey, remember Ron Dayne?

First game: vs. LSU (at Lambeau Field), 3:30 p.m., ABC

 

Rutgers

Last year: 4-8 (1-7 B1G)

Recap: It’s hard to say which incident best sums up Rutgers season, but I’ll offer two candidates.

  1. Rutgers spiked the ball on fourth down to end a one-score game against Michigan State.
  2. Rutgers talked so much smack at halftime of a game they were losing by 19 points that Jim Harbaugh decided to go for two in the second half while up by 25. 

Yeah, Rutgers was Rutgers in a way that only Rutgers can Rutgers.

When last we saw them: Michigan atoned for the Gary Nova-ing by outgaining Rutgers 487-225 in a laugher. Also this happened

2016 Crootin’: 18 commits, none of whom were in the top 500 of the 247 composite. That’s how you end up behind Western Michigan and UAB in the ranking. And as for their in-state recruiting, well… clip_image001

Good luck with that fence, Chris. 2016 rank: #70; 5-year ranking: #53

This team is as frightening as: The creeping realization that Rutgers isn’t leaving. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Rivalry games are unpredictable.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Gary Nova ain’t walking through that door.

When they play Michigan: Does Jim Harbaugh seem like the kind of guy to hold a grudge? Asking for a friend.

First game: at Washington2:00 p.m., PAC-12 Network

 

[Next week will feature better teams, guys. I promise.]

Comments

Fuzzy Dunlop

August 18th, 2016 at 10:24 AM ^

When last we saw them: Michigan has never ever played Colorado ever don’t bother searching for it on Youtube because there’s nothing to see here.

Obviously I know what game you're referring to, but wasn't the last time we played them in 1997?  If I recall correctly, that was the game when we first realized that HOLY SHIT OUR DEFENSE IS A WORLD-DESTROYING MONSTER!

WolverineHistorian

August 18th, 2016 at 11:52 AM ^

Indeed.  We played them TWICE since that thing that didn't happen. 

1996 was the 'Fail Mary' game in Boulder where Lloyd screwed up the clock management, had Scott Dreisbach take a knee on 4th down, which left 5 seconds on the clock and allowed Colorado one play...a much easier hail mary attempt from the 35 yard line that thankfully was just incomplete. 

Opening game against Colorado in 1997 was the glorious beating to start off the national title year.  For the Buffs, it was the very start of their downfall to hell as a program.  They were one of the most dominant college football programs of the decade up to that point.  After losing in Ann Arbor, they stumbled to a 5-6 season record and they have been trying to recover ever since.  Gary Barnett came and gave them 2 really good seasons but things went off the rails very quick.  Their best season record in the last 12 years was a 7-6 campaign in 2005.  Ouch. 

Lou MacAdoo

August 18th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^

Geez, poor Hawaii and that travel schedule. No human should have to endure what lies ahead of them. They get to go to some cool ass places, but they're going there to get their ass kicked and probably don't get much time to see the sights.

Also, this whole thing was hilarious. I always assume all Wisconsin lineman are gingers as well.

dragonchild

August 18th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^

Crossing the pond is just something you gotta do as a Rainbow Warrior.  But if you negotiate a "neutral site" on close to the opposite side of the planet as your opponent. . . they've created an advantage for themselves against Cal.  Both will be sluggish, but at least Hawaii's used to it, and will have less of a time zone difference.  They could take that one.

But yeah, I'm NOT looking forward to the opener.  I love footbaw but this won't be footbaw.  It'll be more like watching an autopsy performed on someone who's still alive.  We could see walk-ons Not Named Glasgow in the 2nd quarter.

Steves_Wolverines

August 18th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^

No official number yet on how much Hawaii will make by traveling to Michigan, but they are looking at a profit of $400,000+ for the Cal game in Australia.

Last year, they made $1,200,000 for the OSU game, and around $1,000,000 for their game at Wisconsin. 

Der Alte

August 18th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^

I'd like nothing better than to see this M-Wisconsin series revert to the way it was back in the day when a W on the schedule meant a W in M's win column. For this fall, omewhere around M 38, W 14 would do it, I think.

DualThreat

August 18th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

I was thinking the other day that, given the schedule we have, that this may be the best possible ordering of opponents.  Consider the following:

> We open against Hawaii after they have to go to Australia.

> We then have two more highly winnable games (UCF, CO) to get the kinks out.

> We then play 2 moderately decent Big Ten teams, keeping these games away from the murders row of the second half of the season.

> We then have 2 bye weeks (RU and actual BYE)

> We then alternate between tough games and easier games.

> Lastly, note that we play Indiana right before OSU.  This is fantastic because as we saw last year, IU plays a high tempo offense and so does OSU.  We basically get IU to prepare/practice for the high tempo right before we play OSU, without having a game in-between that we have to adjust back to walrus ball for.  (This may be even more important because Thanksgiving is the week of the OSU game and I assume this will impact practices for both teams - even if just slightly.)

Given the teams we have to play, I think the schedule order is about as good as it could get.

WolverineHistorian

August 18th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^

Love this.

I'm hoping we beat Central Florida much worse than 41-3 considering their coach is Scott Frost (or is this merely when Harbaugh has his meltdown?). Whatever the case, f*ck Frost and don't put the breaks on until you've reached 63 points.

Apply that same logic to Colorado that next week. Yeah, we've beaten them twice since that game that didn't happen in 1994 but it still hurts.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

csmhowitzer

August 18th, 2016 at 11:25 AM ^

This makes me happy. So good to see this back. It makes these next few days bearable....

Oh it's 16 more days you say? Are you sure? Really?.....

BiSB WT-Pho ARE YOU THINKING POSTING THIS SO EARLY!!!

Love the snark.

Also, best line: a bouillabaisse of offensive suck. A gumbo of ineptitude. A pho of derp.

I have a great vietnamese restaraunt near me and it's lunchtime. I'm gonna go get pho'd up.

Rooster Cogblue

August 18th, 2016 at 11:51 AM ^

Of all the early games, UCF gives me the heebie-jeebies. There's a lot of talent on that team, and Frost is bringing the Oregoning to Florida. I expect M to win, but I also expect to swear at the television frequently...

funkywolve

August 18th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^

CU actually gives me more heebie jeebies than UCF.  Agree on the talent, but pretty sure O'Leary ran more of a pro style offense.  Assuming Frost is going all in on an Oregon style offense, by week 2 not sure how much UCF will have adapted to it..  

Perkis-Size Me

August 18th, 2016 at 12:25 PM ^

True, but it takes a lot of time to get that system implemented to the point where it's really up and running. Colorado concerns me a bit more considering they have some nice pieces stretched across the team.

I hope Kordell Stewart is refrained from coming within 50 miles of Michigan Stadium that day.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

oxl89449

August 18th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

Christopher . if you, thought Maria `s postlng is astonishing... on thursday I got a gorgeous Honda NSX from having made $8819 this-past/5 weeks and-more than, $10 thousand this past munth . without a doubt it is the nicest work Ive had . I started this 8-months ago and pretty much immediately startad bringin home at least $78.

+_+_+_+_+_+_ http://www.factoryofincome.com

dyc45370

August 18th, 2016 at 12:32 PM ^

William . I can see what your saying... Raymond `s article is surprising, last week I bought a top of the range Acura from making $4608 this-past/month and-a little over, $10,000 this past month . with-out any question its the easiest work I've ever had . I began this five months/ago and almost straight away startad bringin in minimum $82 per-hr 
 
 
+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_++_+_+_   http://www.factoryofincome.com