Opponent Watch 2015: Week 3 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

The Road Ahead:

#22 BYU (2-1)

Last week: Lost at #10 UCLA, 24-23

Recap: BYU had the ball down one point with under three minutes left. They had a 4th down with about a minute left. This was their time. They had UCLA right where they wanted them. And then for some inexplicable reason, Tanner Mangum tried to throw a 20-ish yard pass instead of unleashing his inner Mormon Rex Grossman. This inexcusable lack of recklessness led to the ball being picked off, and BYU lost their first game of the season.

BYU actually controlled most of the game; they had a ten point lead in the fourth quarter, and UCLA’s only second half in which they had a chance to take a lead was their last possession, which resulted in an 80 yard touchdown drive. BYU held freshman quarterback Josh Rosen in check for most of the game, by which I mean they stood there while Rosen exploded in a thousand directions. The kid finished with 106 yards on 11-for-23 passing (4.6 YPA) and three brutal picks. Given the way both Boise State and Nebraska moved the ball through the air, I’m tempted to think that UCLA’s failure was mostly of the Freshmen Gon’ Freshmen variety.

Mangum finished with 244 yards passing, but for only 5.2 yards per attempt, his worst average of the year by more than half. He has also showed very little of the mobility he hinted at against Nebraska; in the last two games, he’s rushed for -57 yards on 18 attempts, and is only averaging 1.1 yards per carry excluding sacks.

This team is as frightening as: Still, the thing with the Samoan guy punching you in the dangly bits. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: BYU held the ball more than twice as long as UCLA (40:37 to 19:23), and ran 44% more plays (88 to 61). These statistics are the mark of a true Capital-F Capital-T Football Team.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: UCLA racked up 296 rushing yards. Michigan likes to run the ball. They call that “synergy.”

When they play Michigan: PLEASE STAY WITH THE TALL MEN DOWN THE FIELD THANK YOU.

This week: @ Michigan, noon, ABC

Maryland (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat South Florida, 35-17

Recap: Caleb Rowe replaced Perry Hills as Maryland’s starting QB, and was… better? Maybe? I guess it depends on what you’re looking for in a quarterback. Hills has been pretty mediocre overall this year, and Rowe provided a bit of a spark by throwing for 297 yards at 8.7 YPA with four touchdown. And three interceptions. And three fumbles (all of which Maryland recovered). So I guess he provided a spark for both teams. Still, a win is a win, even if it is a win over a bad team.

This team is as frightening as: Small spiders. At first glance, you think "AAAHHH THAT LOOKS LIKE A THING" but then you look closer for two seconds and you're like, "nah."

Michigan should worry about: Punting Will Likely etc.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland is still pretty bad.

When they play Michigan: No punt Will Likely very bad.

This week: @ West Virginia, 3:00 p.m., FS1

[AFTER THE JUMP: Additional opponents of note]

#17 Northwestern (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Duke, 19-10

Recap: No, that’s not a typo. Northwestern be ranked, yo. And I was all set to say some nice things about the Wildcats, and then…

Did anyone else just make an involuntary farting noise with their mouth? Or was that just me?

This team is as frightening as: A team that can defeat a not-altogether-terrible Duke team, but then feels like "YEAH AND WE BEAT VANDERBILT TWICE SINCE 2008" is somehow rubbing it in. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Northwestern leads the confererence in scoring defense and passing YPA allowed, and are second in the conference in yards per play and total yards allowed (to Ohio State).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern is dead last in yards per play, passing yardage and YPA, and is 12th in the conference in points scored. Against Duke, Clayton Thorson was 9 of 23 for 70 yards and two picks.

When they play Michigan: Yes, this time you can see #M00N developing well ahead of time.You have no right to complain.

This week: vs. Ball State, 8:00 p.m., BTN

#2 Michigan State (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Defeated Air Force, 35-21

Recap: You don’t often see a team rise to #2 in the rankings on the strength of getting outgained by over 100 yards by Air Force, but such is the state of our crazy modern times.

The game was never really “close” in the traditional sense of the word. Michigan State went up 14-0 midway through the 2nd quarter on an RJ Williamson fumble return, and from that point forward Air Force never had the ball down by fewer than fourteen points. That said, Air Force arguably outplayed Michigan State for most of the game. They outgained Sparty 428 (at 7.25 yards per play) to 324 (at 4.98 yards per play). The big difference was turnovers; Air Force turned the ball over three times in MSU territory, while Sparty didn’t have a single turnover.

The primary takeaway from this game is, as always, NEVER PLAY AIR FORCE. They will screw up your defensive linemens’ knees and your rushing defense statistics (Air Force rushed for 5.5 yards per carry, which is exactly the number they rush for every week, give or take a few inches). But a secondary takeaway would be that Michigan State has really struggled to run the ball this year. Air Force, who gave up 7.50 yards per carry to the Fightin’ BorGergs of San Jose State the week before, held MSU to 77 yards on 42 carries (1.83 YPC). Save for one 62 yard carry on a bad defensive bust, Michigan State struggled on the ground against Oregon as well. This is a concern.

This team is as frightening as: A thing that is still #2 in the country for some pretty good reasons. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: I try not to pick the same Thing Michigan Should Worry About two weeks in a row (other than Will Likely (don’t punt to Will Likely)), but after getting wildebeest stampeded early in his career, Aaron Burbridge has completed the thing where he lived with a meerkat and a warthog and ate grubs, and has returned to the Prideland ready to throw some dudes off of giant rocks.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I see cracks. They are not small. They are not massive… but they are not small.

When they play Michigan: I'm not sayin'. I'm just sayin'.

This week: vs. Central Michigan, noon, BTN

Minnesota (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Kent State, 10-7

Recap: Minnesota has crossed over the line from “1960’s Cliché of How Football Works” to “Brady Hoke Poorly Executed Version of How 1960’s Football Works in 2014.” They held Kent State to 142 yards and 0 points offensively, (their points came on an 80 yard fumble return), but managed only 288 yards at 4.06 yards per play. Against TCU, that is somewhat understandable. Against Kent State, that’s largely incomprehensible. That’s “why can’t Michigan move the ball on UConn” territory.

This team is as frightening as: 2014 Penn State.

Michigan should worry about: That defense is still legit.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota does not appear to have taken the step forward some were predicting. 

When they play Michigan: Guys, I’m not going to lie to you. Starting with the Minnesota game, Michigan enters into some reeeeeeeally derpy territory. After Sparty, Michigan’s schedule goes: Bye, #96 offense/#8 defense, #80 offense/#104 defense, #22 offense/#118 defense, #77 offense/#16 defense. So that’s a week of no football, two weeks of football that kinda make you wish there was no football, a Rutgers game (which by their very nature make football cry), and Indiana. Hurray for the Indiana game?

This week: vs. Ohio (YTO), 3:30, BTN

Rutgers (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State 28-3

Recap: This was Penn State trying to run out the clock at the end of the first half.

Rutgers is bad

(H/T Blockhams for the screen cap)

Rutgers is bad.

This team is as frightening as: having to talk about these gentlemen every week. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Last week we said, and I quote, “This team is as frightening as: that dream you have where you show up naked at school for a test you haven’t studied for, but your test is that you have to play Rutgers at football.” Well, after the game, temporary head coach Norries Wilson made that dream even worse when he went full Socratic Method on the press corps: he literally started cold-calling reporters. So, that’s a concern.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I’m starting to think sleeping soundly is actually the thing Michigan should worry most about.

When they play Michigan: Let's hope none of Michigan's running backs suffer from a fear of open spaces.

This week: vs. Kansas, noon, BTN. But why would you need to know what time that game is being played? And why in the name of all that is holy would you need to know the channel? Should... should we be worried about you? I mean, we've all done some dumb, self-destructive stuff from time to time, but Rutgers/Kansas? This feels like a cry for help.

Call us at 3:30 to let us know you're safe.

Indiana (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Kentucky, 38-35

Recap: Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since... 

/does some research, gets bored

...since 1822. So you know what time it is? It's time to bring College Gameday to Bloomington in two weeks when the Hoosiers play Ohio State. Gameday is on board (more or less. BHGP and BSD and Dakich are on board.

Let's do this. #iufb4gameday

This team is as frightening as: A thing that is totally frightening and should definitely be featured on Gameday. Fear Level = 11

Michigan should worry about: The juggernaut Kevin Wilson is assembling.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana will likely enter the Michigan game overconfident based on their massive superiority in all levels of the game, and distracted by the hoopla over Gameday's second trip to Bloomington of the year.

When they play Michigan: Pray 4 Michigan.

This week: @ Wake Forest, 12:30, ESPN3

Penn State (2-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 28-3

Recap: In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And while Penn State may be a rock, Rutgers is, like, a smaller rock or something. Or scissors. Except scissors are sharp and have a point and can occasionally do damage. Rutgers is safety scissors.

The good news for Penn State was that the running game picked up nicely, although you can see by the screenshot above that perhaps the opponent had something to do with that. Saquon Barkley turned in his second straight game over 9 yards per carry, and looked legitimately dynamic even when he encountered various George Romero-inspired defenders.

Christian Hackenberg completed 52.6% of his passes for 141 yards (both season highs somehow), although much of that was Penn State’s usual bubble screen/smoke screen/slip screen/tunnel screen/zero route offense and Rutgers’ continual failure – nay, refusal – to adjust.

This team is as frightening as: You don’t drop the label that easily, guys.

Rock

Michigan should worry about: Penn State’s defensive line,. Setting aside arboricidalist Anthony Zettel, Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson have combined for 12.5 TFL thus far.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Football is still a game based on scoring points.

When they play Michigan: #M00PS

This week: vs. San Diego State,

#1 Ohio State (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Defeated Northern Illinois 20-13

Recap: So, this is two weeks in a row that Ohio State has looked mediocre against mediocre competition. And the problems have started at the position over which we metaphorically drooled all summer: quarterback. After combining to throw for 5.3 yards per attempt against Hawaii, Cardale Jones and JT Barrett threw for 4.7 yards per attempt and three picks against Northern Illinois. For comparison, Murray State threw for 5.7  yards per attempt against Northern Illinois. UNLV (who you may remember as being offensively challenged) threw for 8.2 yards per attempt against NIU. Most amazingly, after giving up 30 points to UNLV’s offense and 19 points to Murray State’s offense, NIU held Ohio State to 13 offensive points.

This team is as frightening as: Still probably a rolling ball of knives and death and bludgeoning. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: While the offense is struggling, the defense has been absolutely dominant. 

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 24-12

When they play Michigan: Probably not 24-12

This week: vs. Western Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

#18 Utah (3-0, 0-0 PAC-12)

Last week: Won at Fresno State, 45-24

Recap: Utah remains undefeated and ranked, but Travis Wilson is out with a shoulder injury for the time being. It sounds like they expect him back, but Utah takes on Oregon this weekend, and it doesn't seem terribly likely that Kendal Thompson gets the job done in Eugene. Devontae Booker will probably get a lot of work.

This week: @ Oregon, 8:30 p.m.

Oregon State (2-1, 0-0 PAC-12)

Last week: Beat San Jose State, 35-21

Recap: Oregon State remains pretty underwhelming, but “underwhelming” beats the hell out of a team coached by Al Borges, Greg Robinson, Dan Ferrigno and head coach Gabe From The Office.

This week: vs. Stanford, 10:00 p.m. Friday, FS1

Comments

csmhowitzer

September 24th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

Ooooh I get it Rutgers thought that maybe Penn State was going to take a knee. So they thought it would be funny to allow the middle of the field to be open for a running play. Jokes on them!!! Also did anyone else notice the one Rutgers player dressed like a ref?

ijohnb

September 24th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^

needs to just pick a quarterback and roll with him.  I think it may be possible that all the back and forth and "we have three quarterbacks look at us woohoo) has maybe resulted in fractured loyalty on that team.  Watching them against NIU was weird.  They looked completely disinterested and really kind of won the game due to some really bad game management by NIU and really nothing they did, even at the end.  Last week was an Akron-like showing from Ohio State (I know that NIU is much better than Akron but OSU is much better than we were at that time so it is kind of apples to apples) and I would be a little curious if I was an OSU fan right now.

In reply to by ijohnb

MI Expat NY

September 24th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^

Well, nothing they did offensively.  OSU's defense did plenty to win the game.  Even ignoring NIU's coaching decisions, I never thought OSU was truly in danger of losing because NIU was not going to go 80+ yards on that defense with the game on the line.  

copacetic

September 24th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^

 

Northwestern is dead last in yards per play, passing yardage and YPA, and is 12th in the conference in points scored.

 

At first I was like why the redundancy, and then I was sad.

Steve333

September 24th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

Just a thought- Utah is ranked and a pretty good team, and does get it done in Eugene. Utah is Michigan's only loss so far. Wolverines go out and beat ranked BYU this Saturday- does the Maize n Blue start getting votes to be ranked in the top 25? Just a thought.

ijohnb

September 24th, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^

with Harbaugh, voters are going to give Michigan built in credibility even if it hasn't necessarily been earned.  Beating BYU isn't enough to get ranked(it likely would have been if they had beat UCLA), but votes will begin to trickle in.  If Northwestern does not completely implode by the time we play them(they probably will) Michigan will be ranked if they win this game and then beat Northwestern.  That would be just in time for a rather important game.

Rabbit21

September 24th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^

The line about the Rutgers-Kansas game was great and I am now tempted to watch that game to see how bad it gets.

I'm also curious to see if the girl from the Ring will crawl out of the TV at halftime.

WolverineRage

September 24th, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^

The Rutgers/Kansas game feels like a "Faces of Death" video.  I kind of want to watch part of it just to see if its as bad as everyone says.  I likely will also end up having nightmares for the next week because of it.

 

#M00PS made me laugh out loud and now requires explanation to co-workers.

oriental andrew

September 24th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^

That would be the last time Indiana started 3-0. They went 2-7 the rest of the way. Before that, they also started 3-0 in 2005, 2007, and 2009, going 4-7, 7-4, and 4-8, respectively. Based on history and science, Indiana will finish 5-7 this season. 

lorrrra57653

September 24th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^

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