Opponent Watch 2014: Week 3 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

Note from Samuel L. Jackson to Big Ten defenders: hold onto your Butts.

The Road Ahead:

Utah (2-0, 0-0 PAC-12)

Yep. Them.

Last game: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: I am of two minds. The first is that Utah hasn’t played anyone yet, so their two blowouts provide us almost no information. They beat Fresno State by 32… which is the closest the Bulldogs have kept a game this year (they lost by 36 at Nebraska and 39 to USC). They also beat Idaho State by 42, and at least Idaho State has won a game this year. Over Division II Chadron State. By 5. The point is that if you think the transitive property of college football is unreliable, believe me when I say that the second order transitive property is slightly more unreliable.

On the other mind, Utah has an experienced QB, a very talented receiver, a couple of quality running backs, and a defense that can walk and chew gum at the same time. And Michigan really needs this one. Fear Level = 7.

Michigan should worry about: Dres Anderson. The wide receiver is averaging 27.8 yards per catch. Which is many.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This will be Utah’s first road game of the year. It will also be Utah’s first game against a team with a pulse.

/checks Michigan for a pulse

/waits

/moves fingers to slightly different location on Michigan’s wrist.

HA. Totally feel a pulse. Knew it all along.

When they play Michigan: The clenching. So much clenching.

Next game: @ Michigan (UM -6), 3:30 Saturday (ABC/ESPN2)

Minnesota (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Woodshedded by TCU, 30-7

Recap: Minnesota’s team is designed around one thing: running the ball effectively. TCU stuffed Minnesota’s running game. The results were… predictable.

Minnesota ran for 2.5 yards per carry, and David Cobb was held to 41 yards on 15 carries. In the first half, Minnesota put up 111 yards of offense in nine drives. Those drives ended in three turnovers, five punts, and the sweet mercy of the halftime gun. By then TCU led 24-0, which they extended to 30-0 in the third quarter before calling off the frogs.

Mitch Leidner finished 12 of 26 for 151 yards (5.8 YPA) and 3 picks. And if THAT wasn’t enough, he ended up with a foot injury (reports are mixed between a broken toe, turf toe, and a general angering of the gypsy). He’s also coming off of a sprained MCL two weeks ago. His backup, Chris Streveler, is a redshirt freshman. I wonder if he knows how to throw a football?

I’m pretty sure “Flick the Booger” is actually Minnesota’s motto this year.

This team is as frightening as: Fighting a guy you’ve fought a bunch, and who you’ve beaten 39 of the last 42 times. Except this time he has one arm tied behind his back. And the other arm has turf toe. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: You know what you’d get from Leidner, and it is the kind of thing that Michigan is ideally suited to stop. If Streveler is in, maybe he gives Minnesota an added dimension of some kind. Like, he can throw a football. Kind of.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The most frightening thing I could think of was “maybe Minnesota will be starting a freshman.”

When they play Michigan: Booooooooring. But in a good way.

Next game: vs. San Jose State, 4:00 p.m. Saturday

[After the jump: OH MAH GAWD IS THAT MILEY'S MUSIC???]

Rutgers (2-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last game: Lost to Penn State, 13-10

Recap: PARENTAL ADVISORY: the following paragraphs contain explicit discussions of Gary Nova. It features mature content and questionable throws, and may be inappropriate for some audiences. Reader discretion is advised.

A sad but true fact: every week, one out of every eight American males between the ages of 18 and 22 will pick off a pass thrown by Gary Nova. At what point do we, as a society, say ‘enough’?

On the other hand, this is pretty fantastic.

That’s Gary Nova throwing a ball away (and in this context, “away” means “into chests of three defenders”) while he is five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. On the bright side, it wasn’t intercepted, which is more than you can say for five of his other passes. Of the 20 Nova passes (out of 30 attempts) that were caught, a quarter were caught by Penn State.

Rutgers actually led most of this game (they were up 10-0 at the half, and 10-6 with under 2 minutes to play), thanks largely to their complete domination of Penn State’s offensive line. Rutgers ended up with 8 TFLs and 5 sacks, of which Darius Hamilton had 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. They held Bill Belton and Zack Zwinak to a combined 17 carries for 42 yards. Alas, so close.

This team is as frightening as: Wile E. Coyote. Sure he's got some physical skills, and occasionally looks like a formidable opponent. But if you just sit back and let his plans unfold, he'll rocket himself into a cliff face. Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan should worry about: The atmosphere in… uh… whatever Rutgers stadium is called (if you’re letting me decide, I vote for ‘The RutgerDome’ or “The RutgArena,”) seemed pretty decent. Then again, this was only the fourth sellout since The RutgArena opened in 2009.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

Yeeeeeeeesh.

When they play Michigan: /Paints tunnel on side of mountain.

Next game: at Navy, 3:30 Saturday (CBS Sports Network)

Penn State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last game: Won at Rutgers, 13-10

Recap: You JUST made me talk about this game. Again?

Okay. The good news was that the won a road conference game. The bad news was that it still doesn’t, like, block people. Any people. As mentioned above, they can’t run the ball, and they can’t protect Hackenberg. They are giving up 6.7 TFLs per game and 2.7 sacks per game.

In three games, Penn State has 6 rushes of 10+ yards. That is tied for 6th worst (per game) in the country, tied with South Alabama and (sigh) Illinois, and ahead of only Washington State (who never runs the ball), SMU (who NEVER runs the ball), Kent State, Wake Forest, and Northwes… SONUFAGAWDDAMMIT BIG TEN WOULD YOU STOP BEING SO TERRIBLE.

The good news for Penn State remains Christian Hackenberg, though the news isn’t as rapturous as some would have you believe. His topline numbers are going to be great this year because he’s going to throw the ball 45 times per game, and while Penn State is in the top ten in total passing yards, they are averaging fewer than 6 yards per play. Against a questionable secondary (Washington State is still running), Hack only went for 7.0 yards per attempt and completed only 56.8% of his passes. On the year he’s thrown for 4 TDs and 5 picks.

This team is as frightening as: Early Season 2013 Michigan. Slingin’ QB, pretty good defense with some holes, some weapons at receiver, uninspiring running backs, and an offensive line composed of old pinball machine parts. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Early Season 2013 Michigan looked pretty good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Early Season 2013 Michigan became Late Season 2013 Michigan, and everyone’s ribs react the same way to force (which, incidentally, is the title of the much less successful follow-up to the book “Everybody Poops”).

When they play Michigan: Get a pass rush. PLEASE. Also, if the corners could continue to exist in this plane of reality, that would be great.

Next game: vs. UMass (PSU -27), 4:00 Saturday (BTN)

Michigan State (1-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: I DON’T HAVE TO TALK ABOUT THEM THIS WEEK. SO YOU CAN’T MAKE ME. Fear Level = LALALA I CAN’T HEAR YOU.

Michigan should worry about: I’ll be honest, the situation in the Middle East frightens me a great deal. Also Ebola.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State is playing Eastern Michigan this week. Eastern Michigan is averaging 2.9 yards per pass. Their 5.56 yards per completion would be in the bottom 20 in the country if it was their yards per ATTEMPT. They are apparently starting Rob Bolden, who is averaging 1.7 yards per attempt. And, again, they are playing Michigan State.

So I guess what I’m saying is that you can sleep soundly that you’re not Eastern Michigan this week. Or ever. But especially this week.

When they play Michigan: Correct ratio. Insufficient total.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan (MSU -45 (lay the points)),

Indiana (1-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Lost at Bowling Green, 45-42

Recap: Now THAT’s the Indiana we all know and love. After surrendering only 22 points and about 350 yards through the first three halves of the season, they surrendered 33 points and nearly 400 yards of offense in the second half to fall to Bowling Green. The Falcons put together second-half touchdown drives of 78, 75, 77, 88, and 88 yards. In fifteen drives, Indiana forced one punt (the teams combined for four punts in 30 possessions).

Bowling Green only averaged 5.4 yards per pass and 4.4 yards per carry, but they just bled the Hoosiers to the tune of 39 first downs. Falcon QB James Knapke threw 73 passes on the day. When Indiana plays Penn State, Hackenberg may throw a hundred balls.

Offensively, Tevin Coleman continues to demolish everything before him. He finished with 190 yards at 7.9 per carry, including touchdowns of 28, 46, and 31. Through two games is averaging 219 yards at 9.3 yards per carry.

This team is as frightening as: 2013 Indiana. Ah, how we missed you. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Coleman. He fast. He skrong.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: That defense. It Charmin. It fluffy.

When they play Michigan: The exact opposite of the Minnesota game.

Next game: @ Missouri (IU +15), 4:00 Saturday (SEC Network)

Northwestern (0-2, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Bye.

Recap: No recap. Bye.  Thank sweet merciful Zeus

This team is as frightening as: Full contact philately. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Salmonella.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 2.47 yards per carry.

When they play Michigan: We shall hope they will continue to suck.

Next game: vs. Western Illinois, 12:00 Saturday (ESPNews)

Maryland (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Maryland Jerseys

Last game: Lost to West Virginia, 40-37

Recap: Meet the new B1G, same as the old B1G. Maryland surrendered 694 yards of offense to West Virginia, including 511 yards passing to Clint Trickett (a personal best by about 150 yards) at 10.4 YPA (a personal best as a starter by nearly a yard). Maryland kept the score close by winning the turnover battle 4-1, returning a punt for a touchdown, and breaking a couple of big scoring plays.

To be clear, West Virginia is not a bad team. They played a relatively competitive game with Alabama in Week 1. But still, this wasn’t an encouraging outing.

This team is as frightening as: Crab people. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Maryland’s run defense. 3.0 yards per carry isn’t too bad.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland’s pass defense. When Clint Trickett looks like THAT, you’ve got problems.

When they play Michigan: Trap game #2.

Next game: @ Syracuse, 12:30 Saturday (GamePlan/ESPN3)

Ohio State (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Beat Kent State, 66-0

Recap: Some days you’re the pigeon, and some days you’re the statue.

Unless you’re Kent State. Then you’re pretty much the statue.

This team is as frightening as: 2011 Ohio State. Talented but young QB, talented but questionable defense, and some pre-season turmoil that throws a wrench in the works. I think they win more than 6 games, but the aura is gone for the moment. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Michael Thomas. He has emerged as Ohio State’s best (and only reliable) receiver. He’s the only one getting separation in one-on-one situations, and he is actually catching the football unlike Devin Smith. He has 4 TDs, and no one else has more than 2. He also has 11 catches, which believe it or not is 6 more catches than anyone else.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The Buckeyes were struggling at the WDE spot, and instead of getting Noah Spence back they OONTS OONTS OONTS OONTS.  

When they play Michigan: Win The Game.

Next game: Bye

 

Objects in the rearview mirror:

Appalachian State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt)

Fighting Camels

Once more, for old times’ sake

Last game: Bye

Recap: Alas, no more Fighting Camels.

Next game: at Southern Miss (ASU +2), 7:00 Saturday

Notre Dame (3-0)

Last game: Beat Purdue 30-14

Recap: Notre Dame had their traditional post-Michigan game struggle with a terrible Purdue team. Unlike last year, this one didn’t stay close into the fourth quarter, as Notre Dame pulled away comfortably early in the second half.

Next game: Bye

Miami (NTM) (0-3, 0-0 MAC)

Normally I don’t say much substantive about last week’s game, as it is covered much more in depth by others more qualified than myself. But I feel compelled to provide the following summary:

THIS. WAS. NOT. LIKE. AKRON. IN. ANY. MEANINGFUL. WAY.

The comparison on many peoples’ lips after Saturday was “OMG this was just like the Akron game.” And if you squint really hard, you can draw enough parallels to fill your allotted word count; coming off an emotional game against Notre Dame, Michigan came out flat against an inferior opponent, turned the ball over too much, and . Cool. That’s a fun narrative and whatnot. Way to go, intrepid bringers of hot takes. But the game was almost NOTHING like Akron.

  • Michigan and Akron finished nearly even in yardage. Michigan outgained Miami 460-198.
  • Akron gained 21 first downs to Michigan’s 19. This week, Michigan gained 23 first downs and surrendered 8, including only 3 in the entire first half. Akron was 9 of 18 on 3rd down. Miami was 2 of 12.
  • Akron had drives of 75, 71, 67, 59, and 47 yards. Miami’s longest drive was 43 yards (based off of one 31-yard completion), and nothing else exceeded 27 yards. Miami’s scoring drives were 21 and 26 yards long.
  • Akron exposed and exploited serious problems with Michigan’s offensive line and secondary. Miami exposed the fact that Miami is bad.
  • Akron had the ball on the two yard line with two shots to win. Miami never had a lead, never had the ball at ANY point after their first drive with a chance to take a lead, and wasn’t within two scores at any point in the fourth quarter.
  • Michigan beat Akron by 4 points. Michigan beat Miami by 24 points.

Michigan dominated this game in every phase. They averaged over 6 yards per carry and held Miami to 1.4 yards per carry (with a long of 8, by Andrew Hendrix). Devin Gardner completed 65% of his passes at 9.2 YPA, and the held Hendrix to 46% at 6.3 YPA. Sure, you can feel free to object to the way the first half ended (the line forms to the left, but get comfy). But the only similarity between the two games is “if Michigan commits a series of mind-boggling turnovers, it will hurt their chances at victory.” Find me a team about whom this isn’t true, and I will but you a Fresca.

Against Akron, turnovers were what gave Akron a chance to win. Against Miami, turnovers were what kept the score from getting comfortably out of hand as quickly as it did. This was a “dammit you’re going to hurt the KenPom number,” not “dammit, I have bitten my fingernails down so far that I think I just swallowed my watch.”

Next game: @ Cincinnati (M(NTM) +28) , 7:00 Saturday

Comments

SaddestTailgateEver

September 18th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

That piece on Miami v. Akron. Hear Hear! I haven't heard those comparisons myself but am floored that they're being made at all... This was mildly irritating at the end of the first half. Akron was terrifying the whole way through. This game I was never too concerned, by the third quarter against Akron I had already switched to "forget the spread, just win the game however is necessary"

Zone Left

September 18th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

Michigan has already had two bizarre box scores, Notre Dame and Miami. With Notre Dame, it's trying to figure out how you lose by 31 to a team with under 300 yards of offense, that Michigan outgained, that had no defensive touchdowns. With Miami, it's trying to figure out how the score was that close and the yardage totals so low given the utter level of dominance.

Michigan pounded Miami, but made a bunch of stupid mistakes that created a messy half. End of story.

The FannMan

September 18th, 2014 at 4:05 PM ^

I love that Streveler can't say "booger" without a "pull my finger" grin on his face.  I also love the irony that a Minnesota quarterback made a video about how to throw a football.  

MH20

September 18th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

1) This continues to be one of the best columns on mgoblog.  BiSB, your writing is hilarious and perfectly on-point.

2) I get that you want to debunk people like Caputo, but why even give that asshole the courtesy of free advertising?  F that guy.

bstaub32

September 18th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

The spread is down to Michigan -3.5, with 74% of the action on Utah. Public underdogs typically don't fair very well (see MSU @ Oregon). I like our chances here!

westwardwolverine

September 18th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^

I would say Akron was similar to Miami in the first half. 

Last year Akron had 125 yards at the half and scored 3 points. This year Miami had 85 yards in the first half and scored 10 points. 

Akron's two longest drives were 33 yards and 52 yards (30 yards on one pass). Miami's two longest drives were 26 yards and 21 yards. 

In both of them we were undone by turnovers in the first half to keep the game close. 

Of course, the games become completely different in the second half, but even then, last year we thought we'd put Akron away at 21-10 in the third and then whoops, pick-six, 21-17. 

I think the hottest take around is pretending like Michigan had nothing to be worried about because we always take care of business. 

BiSB

September 18th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^

Even if we're JUST comparing first halves, Michigan had a 170-125 yardage edge last year. they had a 215-88 edge this year. But that's comparing the GOOD half of last year's game to the OMG PANIC half of this year's game.

But the bigger point is that there are two classifications of clunkers: the "eh, that was underwhelming" type and the "HOLY SHIT" type. Akron OUTPLAYED Michigan in the second half. Miami did not look better than Michigan at any aspect of the game at any point in the game. The only way Michigan was going to even come close to losing to Miami was to continue to commit the kind of random, crazy-ass turnovers they did in the first half.

No one is saying this game was all sushine and daisies. What we ARE saying is that it was a complete and utter throttling of a bad team, not a knock-down, drag-out with a bad team.

westwardwolverine

September 18th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^

So they aren't the same, but they were similar: We were outplaying a poor MAC team at home, but the game remained close because of turnovers. 

"The only way Michigan was going to even come close to losing to Miami was to continue to commit the kind of random, crazy-ass turnovers they did in the first half."

You mean like throwing a pick-six when you're up 24/17-10 to make it a 24-17 game? Kind of like how a 21-10 game with the ball that seems to be on the edge of being over turns into a 21-17 game? Those two scenarios aren't similar at all. And of course we have a QB who NEVER does things like that.

You also realize that I said that the second halves were completely different right? 

"What we ARE saying is that it was a complete and utter throttling of a bad team"

Yeah but that's wrong. A "complete and utter throttling" is being up 40+ at the half like OSU was against Kent State. Because, you know, they came out after a loss and played a pretty flawless game of football against a bad team. 

But hey, cool sigh bro. You sure are smart. 

BiSB

September 18th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^

You can draw a really broad, high-level, lazy comparison and make the games sound similar. But if you can really compare a game in which the MAC team led with three minutes left in the game to a game in which the MAC team was TIED for all of 6:45, all in the first half, and including the time spent at 0-0, then I can't help you.

MH20

September 18th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^

How precipitious has the Golden Eagles' fall been?  For years they were always a decent mid-major program with the occasional really good season.  In 2011, just three years ago, they went 12-2, winning the C-USA title and defeating a decent Nevada squad in the Hawaii Bowl.  Then everything went to shit.

Larry Fedora split for UNC and since that 2011 Hawaii Bowl victory, USM has just TWO (2!) victories over their last 27 contests: a demolition of a 2-10 UAB squad in final week of 2013 and a 26-20 conquest of the Alcorn State Fighting Steve McNairs in week two of this season.

Why am I even bringing this up?  Well, they are App State's next opponent and the Golden Eagles are only two-point(!!) favorites at home(!!!) against a pretty bad Mountaineers squad.

Weird stuff.