Opponent Watch 2014: Week 2 Comment Count

BiSB

Big Ten

The sun had risen, though it was hard to tell through the lingering haze and dust. It all seemed so surreal; they had so recently stood beaming with pride, assuring the peasantry that the claiming of Rutgersland and the conquering of the Turtle People had ensured our long-term security. We had been told that our leaders had won the kind of Lebensraum that would see us through the coming ages. When was that? Had it been a day? A month? Surely it could not have been so long ago.

Some would argue whether the Big Ten had ever really existed at all; that even before The Weekend, the “conference” was merely an idea. A fleeting notion. A foolish homage to the time of 22-personnel and punting from the opponent’s 35 yard line. But whatever it had been, it was no longer. Reports were sketchy, but from all indications the destruction was similar throughout the realm. The borders had been shown to be merely transitory, and the defenses illusory. This was surely not the last incursion, but did it matter? What more damage could be done than had already been done?

Big Life. Big Stage. Big Ten.

About Last Week:

yeah, no

The Road Ahead:

Miami (NTM) (0-2, 0-0 MAC)

Red Hawk

Last week: Lost to Eastern Kentucky, 17-10

Recap: The good news for Miami was that they outgained Ohio Valley Conference team Eastern Kentucky 445-280. The bad news was that they turned the ball over six times, including three interceptions from Tommy Hendrix. This runs Miami’s losing streak to 18 games.

This team is as frightening as: A team that has a full compliment of 85 scholarships available, plays a MAC schedule, and hasn’t won a single football game in the last 18 tries. Fear Level = 1.5

Michigan should worry about: Andrew Hendrix is throwing for 338.5 yards per game…

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …at 6.7 yards per attempt. Against Marshall and EKU. Also, if you believe silly superstitions like “reviewing game film,” you should probably feel pretty good.

When they play Michigan: A crowd of “100,000” will get to witness a comfortable, boring win over a terrible opponent.

Next game: at Michigan (-34), 3:30 Saturday (BTN)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Combative dromedaries are the best dromedaries]

 

Utah (2-0, 0-0 PAC-12)

Last game: Beat Fresno State, 59-27

Recap: Utah has now blown two bad teams out of the water. And while that might not sound impressive, they are the only team on Michigan’s schedule who can say that. Travis Wilson threw five touchdown passes in barely over two quarters of action. He’s currently throwing for 11.7 yards per attempt (4th best in the country) and hasn’t thrown a pick.

This team is as frightening as: A bag of Combos under a crate being propped up by a stick. A string is tied to the stick. You know this seems suspicious. But... Combos. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Utah gets a bye week to prepare for their trip to the Big House.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Uh… I dunno. Seriously, this game scares me a lot. A lot a lot. They look like a real football team. I don’t know what to make of their competition, but…

I don’t want to be a #HotTake alarmist, but there is a universe in which the game recaps written next week read an awful lot like eulogies.

When they play Michigan: PLEASE WIN THIS GAME PLEASE.

Next game: Bye

Minnesota (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Beat Middle Tennessee State, 35-24

Recap: This one wasn’t really as close as the score indicates, but was also closer than the score indicates. Minnesota was up 28-0 at the half and MTSU didn’t get back within two scores until there were 45 seconds left in the game, but MTSU actually outgained Minnesota by nearly a hundred yards (445-351).

The major takeaway here was that Minnesota either can’t or won’t throw the ball. Wait… is “both” an option? Okay, then that’s the winner. They can’t AND won’t throw the ball. Mitch Leidner was 5/11 for 67 yards  (6.1 YPA) with a TD and a pick. Minnesota did not complete a pass in the second half, with Leidner going 0-2. In the whole G**DAMN HALF. Through two games, Minnesota has completed 15 passes.

This team is as frightening as: Facing Derek Zoolander in a walk-off. Sure, he can impress David Bowie and Billy Zane with his running game, but if you make him turn left and he’ll end up falling over. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: David Cobb. Despite the fact that EVERYONE knows Minnesota is gonna run the ball, he’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He’s currently on pace for over 250 carries (and 1750 yards… but no). Despite the return of Donnell Kirkwood, Cobb is going to be a bell cow this year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Unstoppable Mini-Braylon was the only Minnesota back who WASN’T effective (6 carries for 17 yards), decreasing the risk of SO much Twitter told-you-so in a few weeks.

When they play Michigan: You will not have flashbacks to Everett Golson.

Next game: at TCU (-16), 4:00 Saturday (Fox Sports 1)

Rutgers (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Beat Howard, 38-25

Howard CosellHoward JohnsonHoward SternHoward the Duck

One of these guys, I think

Recap: A carbon copy of the Minnesota game. Rutgers jumped out to a big halftime lead (31-7), and though Howard closed the gap late the outcome was never really in doubt. Howard outgained Rutgers (427-397), though that was largely the result of a couple of fourth quarter drives that were pretty meaningless. Gary Nova threw for 288 yards on only 22 attempts, though 100 of those yards came from two passes to running back Paul James.

I suppose it’s worth noting that Howard lost their opener to Akron 41-0. It’s probably also relevant that Washington State lost to Nevada 24-13 and Cougar quarterback Connor Halliday threw for 6.8 YPA and 1 TD against 2 picks, suggesting that Rutgers’ quasi-hyped (or not thoroughly mocked) opening week win may not be too impressive after all, and that their Air Raid de-pantalooning was really, really bad.

This team is as frightening as: Being attacked by a gang consisting exclusively of guys named Howard. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Leonte Carroo. He doesn’t catch many passes, but he now has 11 TDs on 35 career catches. Which is many. (h/t Drew Hallett).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is 115th of 127 teams in yards per play allowed.

When they play Michigan: They will be taking on a coach with a shiny new two-year extension. Because once you've beaten Howard, you've really planted a flag.

Next game: vs. Penn State (-4), 8:00 Saturday (BTN)

Penn State (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Beat Akron, 21-3

Recap: Despite the fact that Akron is terrible (SHUT UP YES I REMEMBER), they managed to hang around with Penn State into the fourth quarter. The recipe was familiar: Christian Hackenberg was pretty good, but made a few really bad throws and got no help whatsoever from his running game or offensive line.

The bigger news is that Penn State had its bowl eligibility and scholarship allotment reinstated. Penn State, of course reacted with the kind of thoughtful calm we have come to expect from OH F*** IT LET’S GO MATTRESS SURFING.

WE ARE

This team is as frightening as: Being subjected to the fickle whims of the NCAA.  Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: If Penn State was right all along about the massive conspiracy, and the conspiracy is starting to unravel, then the next thing we're going to see is the referees suddenly calling the THOUSANDS of uncalled penalties against Michigan that they have been letting slide because aliens.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State is running for 2.76 yards per carry, which sucks, and for 3.27 yards per real carry (non-QB, non-kneeldown) which is dead last in the conference. I'm not sure how that can be explained by even the deepest conspiracy.

When they play Michigan: UNDER THE LIGHTS THREE. In which Penn State is Clubber Lang?

Next game: at Rutgers (+4), 8:00 Saturday (BTN)

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Lost at Oregon, 46-27

Recap: Rarely do we say that a losing team had the best showing from a conference in a given week, especially when that loss was by 19 points. But State’s loss to Oregon was EASILY the Big Ten’s best least embarrassing. They actually held a 9 point second half lead before Oregon does the thing that Oregon does.

Connor Cook is really becoming a solid quarterback. Oregon’s defense isn’t fantastic, but they have a couple of solid corners (including likely first-rounder Ifo Ekpre-Olomo, who the Lions should definitely draft). Cook was put in the unusual position of having to keep up in a shootout, and he performed well. Dammit.

The bad news for Michigan State, of course, is that they didn’t quite keep it close enough to look like a really good performance at the end of the year, and they play in the Big Ten, so their shot at a CFB Playoff berth just vanished.

This team is as frightening as: HG Wells said that in the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In this case, the Big Ten is the country of blind little people with bad breath, and Michigan State has a mild astigmatism or something. Like, they need reading glasses or have some sub-par night vision. Fear Level = 9.3

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Oregon scored 46 points on Michigan State’s vaunted defense.

Michigan should worry about: I tried to extrapolate Michigan’s likely output against Michigan State by doing a unit conversion from “points scored by Oregon at home” to “points scored by Michigan on the road,” and I broke math. So I asked my computer to do the same calculation. My computer asked why. I explained. And my computer laughed and laughed. But then he found me some GIFs of animals doing cute stuff, so we’re cool now.

When they play Michigan: Diversify your holdings. Add gin.

Next game: Bye

Indiana (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: BYE

Recap: No recap. Bye.

So we’re not going to talk about them? No.

Why? Because we lack new data; they didn’t play, and neither did their Week One opponent (Indiana State). Therefore any speculation would be baseless.

This is the internet, sir: Fair point.

Next game: at Bowling Green (+8), 12:00 Saturday (ESPNU)

Northwestern (0-2, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Lost to Northern Illinois, 23-15

Recap: The saddest part of this is that it didn’t feel like an upset. Wait. Saddest isn’t the right word. Funniest. The FUNNIEST part is that it didn’t feel like an upset. Through two games, it’s hard to identify anything Northwestern does well, ESPECIALLY on offense. Trevor Siemian is averaging 5.8 YPA. Their running backs are averaging under 3.7 yards per carry. They are 107th in the country in yards per play. They’re just all-around bad.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, they have angered the gypsy. In addition to Christian Jones and Venric Mark, Tony Jones missed this game, and Trevor Siemian hurt his knee in the fourth quarter (though is reportedly okay).

This team is as frightening as:

ClubbinFear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Kyle Prater recorded 7 catches for 92 yards and a TD. /Ron Paul It’s Happening dot gif

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern has now lost nine of their last ten games, with six of those losses coming at home. Ryan Field is not Notre Dame Stadium.

When they play Michigan: Don’t stop clubbing, baby seals.

Next game: Bye

Maryland (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Beat South Florida, 24-17

Recap: This was a bit of a trap game for Maryland, insofar as someone put a rake in the middle of a field and said “HEY MARYLAND WATCH OUT FOR THIS RAKE” and put up a little sign that said “here is the rake.” South Florida squeeked by with a 36-31 win over Western Carolina in week one, and is coming off of a 2-10 season (in which they got blown out by McNeese State, FAU, and Rutgers). Maryland responded by putting up 4.66 yards per play and scoring 17 offensive points. It didn’t help that they turned the ball over six (!) times.

They are averaging 5.15 yards per play thus far (92nd in the country, between Ohio and UMass) despite playing two abysmal teams. In any other week, we would be laughing at Maryland pretty hard. This week, they’re just a footnote.

This team is as frightening as: An otter with a bazooka. They have plenty of firepower and seemingly no idea how to use it. But if they eventually figure out how to trigger it… Fear Level = 6.

Michigan should worry about: Maryland is 11th in the country in yards per pass against at 4.3 YPA, and hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: There are so many things to worry about between now and then, just relax. If you’re losing sleep over MARYLAND at this point, Jim Delany has already won.

When they play Michigan: Watch out for the rake, guys.

Rakes

Next game: vs. West Virginia (+4)

Ohio State (1-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last game: Lost to Virginia Tech, 35-21

Recap: Alas, the hundred year blood-reign of Urban Meyer suffered its first home defeat, dropping a rather blasé game to the Hokies. After falling behind 21-7, Ohio State managed to tie the game early in the fourth quarter with a long touchdown drive and a forced VT turnover that led to a touchdown. But then Bud Foster had a Braylon-against-MSU-style light bulb illuminate over his head that said “gee, their offensive line can’t block anyone, so let’s just go tackle the QB.” The Buckeyes surrendered six sacks for a loss of 47 yards in the last 9 minutes.

The Ohio State faithful put down their JT Barrett For Heisman signs and picked up their JT Barrett For Out Of Town torches and pitchforks in record time. In fairness, Barrett was only 9 of 29 for 219 yards and a TD against 3 picks, but much of it wasn’t his fault. His receivers got very little separation all day, and when they did they struggles to catch the ball. Also, as mentioned, his offensive line was TERRIBLE. The running backs racked up 53 yards on 15 carries, and it was in fact Barrett who posed the only real threat on the ground (sacks removed, he finished with 124 yards on 17 carries).

Ohio State’s running game is the real problem. Virginia Tech employed a CHYYYAAAAARRRRGEEE defense, getting guys upfield on the edges on every play and forcing things back inside. Last year, Carlos Hyde could simply pound the ball inside, but they just aren’t getting any movement this year. This bodes very poorly for Ohio State against, say, Michigan State, who can play a similar style of defense.

This team is as frightening as: Coaching for your job in the last game of the year? Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Michigan just tried to play a similar style against Notre Dame as the Hokies did against OSU. It, uh… yeah.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Last year, Ohio State averaged 7.2 yards per carry from non-QBs. This year, that number is 4.4 yards per carry.

When they play Michigan: Jabrill Peppers and Ray Taylor had better be healthy.

Next game: vs. Kent State (+32), 12:00 Saturday (ABC/ESPN2)

 

Objects in the rearview mirror:

Appalachian State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt)

Fighting Camels

Last game: Beat the Campbell Fighting Camels, 66-0

Recap: App State rebounded nicely with a rout of the Campbell Fighting Camels. They held the Fighting Camels to 95 yards of offense, and put up 538 yards on the Fighting Camels defense.

If you took anything away from the previous paragraph other than “Fighting Camels,” I apologize.

Fighting Camels.

Next game: Bye

Comments

Go Blue 10

September 12th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

They better cover the 34 i am sick of putting money on Michigan and they never cover casue they dont run the score up, if shane morris doesnt play the whole second half i will be upset

Thad_Castle

September 12th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

No, #1 is betting against your team, the rest are betting for your team. Just don't do either because then you end up losing that $200 bet you made with your step dad who is an ass hole and went to State and laughs in your face after your favorite team gets blown out of the water and Devin Gardner gets sacked into a pile of pulp.

 

...Not that this has happened to me or anything.

Thad_Castle

September 12th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

"Utah has now blown two bad teams out of the water. And while that might not sound impressive, they are the only team on Michigan’s schedule who can say that."

No, unfortunately Notre Dame can say that.

alum96

September 12th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^

Going to be interesting if Funchess and Taylor don't play this week.   Miami OH is really bad but still those are 2 key cogs.  And if playing what % are they.  In theory the rest of the team should be so talented we could rest guys like this even if they were 80% - but theories havent worked out to well this past decade.

More worried about if these guys dont return for Utah in good health.

Don

September 12th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^

Which means I fully expect Michigan to make Miami's QB look like either Tom Brady or Donovan McNabb, or maybe a genetic hybrid of both. We'll look listless early, get up to a nice lead, and then let it dribble away after turnovers, penalties, ST fuckups, and missed opportunities allow Miami to make a game of it.

alum96

September 12th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^

Said last week if NW beat No Ill they could still only have 4 wins this year.  Looking very morbid for those guys.  As far as Big 10 schedules go they have a "tough" one all things being relative and with the understanding the use of the word tough in the Big 10 incites snickering.

gwkrlghl

September 12th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^

I maintain that Northwestern should have the lowest fear level of anyone on the schedule. They should be like 0.1 because they be terrible. So terrible that they will significantly out-terrible Michigan's terribleness on the road

Rutgers and Minnesota trending down; Utah trending into terrifying territory

woodfeld

September 12th, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^

Wait, you said the Utah game scares you a lot. A lot a lot.  But you gave it a 6.5 on the worry-meter, shouldn't it be like an 8?  Because yes, that game makes me more nervous than any game, save MSU/OSU.  If M loses there, they are 2-2 (most likely) and the players could easily lose confidence yet again, ala last season.  Then they have to go on the road to Rutgers with that lack of confidence, and gulp, 2-3 could be staring them in the face....

west2

September 12th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^

Last year my wife and I attended the Akron game.  We tailgated in the Pioneer HS parking lot and had a great time before the game expecting the "boring" rout of a clearly inferior opponent that had won only 3 games in the previous 3 years while M was coming off a thrilling win over a ranked ND.  Watching the final play, which was Akron throwing from Michigan's 3 yard line for what should have been the winnig TD then seeing the ball sail over the reciever's hands for an incomplete pass...it still seemed like a loss.  But Miami is worse than Akron and this year's team is better than last years you say?    uh huh

sLideshowBob

September 12th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^

I find it unbelievable that mass media is so ho hum about PSU sanctions being lifted. I get that the current students and players were not there then, but I feel like we as a society have just encouraged major organizations to hide that kind of crime.

alum96

September 12th, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^

I think of all the remaining games Minnesota might be the 5th or so best team we play but they match up perfectly for this defense.  All about the run and inability to pass.  Cobb is a beast but for gosh sakes they are so 1 dimensional.

Everything you wrote about PSU's offense is so Michigan 2013 it is fascinating.  Hack is better than Devin overall but still makes forced throws and turns the ball over quite a bit at his age.  The rest of it sounds like a carbon copy.   They do have one really great player on their DL similar to Day however.  Need Ray Taylor back, and to be a legit press corner and Peppers back and be a legit player by that game.

Rutgers plays PSU this week so should tell us more about both.  Rutgers has a pretty beastly RB as well.

Maryland befuddles as their mediocre QB is somehow playing not as good as last year with the benefit of 2 NFL WRs back healthy.  Maryland plays a pretty solid West Virginia so if things don't turn on a dime that game could get ugly.  WVA played Bama pretty damn tough on a neutral field.  I am very surprised how tight that line is - maybe I am missing something.  If West VA had WRs who could catch they could have beaten Bama.

westwardwolverine

September 12th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^

Truthfully, you could say it about any of the games before State. Or really any game this season. 

With Hoke, you pretty much have to think Michigan is 1-3 right now, because there is zero indication we can beat MSU or OSU away. So if we're gonna get to 9-3, well...we can't have a Penn State 2013 or an Iowa 2011. 

Out of all the other teams we play, Utah scares me the most. I think we win the rest of our games, but an OOC foe hitting a Michigan team that may not be very confident and missing a bunch of key players...I'm nervous. 

reshp1

September 12th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^

It's a long way away, but OSU looks legitimately awful this year. They're dealing with the same OL issues we had last year and a freshman QB to boot. Their DL is good, and really kept that game from being a lot worse (the Bosa forced fumble at the end was the only time it looked like Ohio had a chance all game). That was also at home for Ohio and VT is a good but not great team, so it gives me some hope if our team can keep improving.

westwardwolverine

September 12th, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^

Maybe. I'm looking at that 0-5 mark Hoke is sporting right now against our rivals on the road + that spank job we just received from Notre Dame. While I agree that it wasn't as bad as the score indicated, until proven otherwise, I can't help but think every good (I'm gonna guess Virginia Tech is pretty good and OSU ends up being near the top of the conference. If they are 5-6 going into that game, that's another story) team we play on the road is a loss. 

oriental andrew

September 12th, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^

Neat little mnemonic device used to tell which camels have 1 hump and which have 2 humps. Uppercase D has one "hump" so that goes with Dromedary camels, which have one hump. Uppercase B has two "humps" so that goes with Bactrian camels, which have two humps. My kids should never forget which camel is which.