national champs baby
The One Useful Hockey Bracketology
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…comes right at the end. The games are played and the PWR is set. Details are later. Now is now. This is what I think the committee will do:
Minneapolis
1. Michigan
4. Cornell
2. Minnesota
3. BU (or Maine)
Yes. I'm guessing they bone us. MFan In Ohio disagrees. QUIEN ES MAS MACHO?! We'll find out tomorrow. My logic after the dashy bits.
-----------------------
The bracket using pure 1 to 16 sets up poorly for Michigan. This is it:
Regional 1
- 1. BC
16. AFA - 8. Minnesota
9. BU
Regional 2
- 2. Michigan
15. MSU - 7. Duluth
10. Maine
Regional 3
- 3. Union
14. WMU - 6. Ferris State
11. DU
Regional 4
- 4. North Dakota
13. Cornell - 5. Miami
12. Lowell
- They have to fiddle with the fours so that the Michigan/MSU matchup does not happen. It doesn't really matter how they slide the teams around, Michigan gets Cornell.
- Then the committee has a problem: they are sending the overall #1 seed to Minneapolis to face a potential second-round matchup with Minnesota. That will not happen. They will protect the #1 overall and they don't want to murder attendance in the East dead. So how do they deal with this?
- Option A: Flip either the 8-9 matchups or just Minnesota and Duluth. Send either both Boston schools to Worchester or Maine and BC. Attendance: good. Regionals 3 and 4: unaffected, integrilicious.
- Option B: Go by the super-strict selection process that locks Michigan into Green Bay, the closest regional, and ends up putting the #8 team in with #4 North Dakota in Minneapolis, both eviscerating your bracket integrity and, more importantly, not screwing Michigan. This is hypothetically the way it should work, but more often than not the committee just does what it wants. It's their hot body.
- If the committee does take this route, Michigan ends up in Green Bay. They still get Cornell in round one; round two is the winner of Ferris State/Denver. This alternative is hypothetically better for attendance since the other East regional isn't three Western teams and Union, but since none of those teams is within 500 miles of Green Bay it just doesn't matter.
BONUS THIS-MIGHT-BE-A-YEAR-THE-COMMITTEE-LOSES-ITS-MIND ALTERNATIVE: There is the slight possibility that the committee flips Air Force into Michigan's bracket figuring that while a flight is a flight, a flight for Air Force is cheaper to Minneapolis and Cornell can probably drive to Worchester. I think they got over their cost-cutting insanity after that one year when they put all the West teams in the West and all the East teams in the East… but you never know.
I seriously doubt this is how it goes down, FWIW.
March 18th, 2012 at 12:56 AM | 
Region of death
Region of death
March 18th, 2012 at 9:43 AM |
You're also forgetting one
You're also forgetting one
You're also forgetting one other factor: North Dakota was just in St. Paul this weekend and played Minnesota on Friday (a rather epic buttkicking by the, uh, North Dakotans). Would the bracket folks really want the teams to rematch 8 days later? I think they want a fresh matchup.
March 18th, 2012 at 10:46 AM |
They've done it before.
They've done it before.
We were paired with Miami right after beating them in the CCHA playoffs a couple years ago. Also, BC and Maine are going to be paired up in Worcester, and they just played in the Hockey East finals. It happens all the time.
March 18th, 2012 at 11:59 AM |
But the Gophers have pull.
But the Gophers have pull.
But the Gophers have pull. Lou Nanne will make sure North Dakota is somewhere else.
Or not.
50/50.
March 18th, 2012 at 1:03 AM |
no chance for Air Force?
no chance for Air Force?
i know it's a bigger flip, but is there no chance that the committee gives us the other non-CCHA four seed? i know one of the factors is travel, and as an M alumnus and current Cornell student, trust me, i spent way too much of my time on hipmunk tonight. bottom line is it costs over $1K to fly to Green Bay from central NY, or it's a 14 hour drive. Worcester is 4.5 hours by car. AFA has to fly no matter where they're put.
also, i'm just praying they don't give us Cornell because then i'll really want to go. at least the temptation will be mitigated by the strong rumors that we have a regular season matchup in the works for this fall.
anyway, might as well quit speculating and go to bed. we'll know in less than 12 hours…
March 18th, 2012 at 1:10 AM |
i am apparently bad at
i am apparently bad at
i am apparently bad at reading. i DEFINITELY need to go to bed.
March 18th, 2012 at 1:47 AM |
I think one of us is right.
I think one of us is right.
I don't really know which one. My logic for putting Michigan in Green Bay, besides the fact that this is how the committee is supposed to do it, is that switching North Dakota and Michigan really punishes both schools by moving them farther from their fanbases. I would bet that the crowd at a Minnesota-UND regional final is at most 60-40 for Minnesota because UND travels as well as any school in the country. St. Paul is 5 hours from Grand Forks but Green Bay is almost 10 hours from Grand Forks. For Michigan, that's roughly the difference between going to Indianapolis or to Huntsville, Alabama. It's easy to say that North Dakota would travel just as well to Green Bay as to St. Paul, but geography doesn't back that up.
Also, as you mentioned, putting Michigan in St. Paul would be an historic boning. They'd be sending us 50% farther from Ann Arbor to play the #13 seed (tied for 12th, really) in the first round when we deserve to play the #15, followed by a host school in the second round. The bracket with Michigan in St. Paul would probably also have the 5-12 matchup in Bridgeport to avoid having 3 western teams in an eastern regional, so the only change between my bracket and yours is switching Michigan-Cornell with UND-Western. So all that boning of Michigan would come with really not much benefit.
All that said, it could go either way, and there is logic in both brackets. I just really hope I'm right.
March 18th, 2012 at 2:22 AM |
I think you are terribly over
I think you are terribly over
I think you are terribly over estimating the distance between Green Bay and St Paul is probably not enough for the committee to care. Google maps lists it at 4 hours and 40 mins, but its easily doable in 4 hours. Comparing them to Indy and Alabama is pretty ludacris, although I am sure that statement was dripping in sarcasm. Living in Wisconsin I can tell you from experience that ND will travel just as well to Green Bay as they will St Paul, this is after all WCHA territory. I would think that Michigan fans would rather spend a weekend in the Cities than in GB as GB has nothing to offer.
@2GuysFromWI
March 18th, 2012 at 10:25 AM |
Sure, but fans don't go to
Sure, but fans don't go to
Sure, but fans don't go to regionals for the scenery, they go for the hockey. No fan who is able and willing to make that trip on four-days notice is going to worry about what else is in town.
Servant. Pastor. Husband. Michigan fan in Duluth.
March 18th, 2012 at 11:12 AM |
It's actually a decent comparison.
It's actually a decent comparison.
Grand Forks to Green Bay is 593 miles. Ann Arbor to Huntsville is 631 miles. I suppose in terms of Indy vs. another city I could have chosen Nashville instead. Or I could have gone with Pittsburgh vs. New York, which are a little under 300 miles and a little over 600 miles from Ann Arbor, respectively.
The point is that Green Bay is almost twice as far (590 miles vs. 320) from Grand Forks as St. Paul is. I understand that ND travels well, but that's still a long way to go. Also, Ann Arbor is 150 miles closer to Green Bay than Grand Forks is, so arguing that ND such a better attendance draw that it's worth completely screwing over the #2 overall seed doesn't totally work for me.
March 18th, 2012 at 12:07 PM |
Ludacris = rapper
You meant
Ludacris = rapper
You meant
Ludacris = rapper
You meant ludicrous.
Sorry, had to mention it.
March 18th, 2012 at 9:41 AM |
Come to St. Paul (not
Come to St. Paul (not
Come to St. Paul (not Minneapolis, St. Paul) you Wolverines. Give me a Minnesota - Michigan regional final.
People in Minnesota actually know something about hockey, not those cheese eating turds in Green Bay. You want an atmosphere, a game, an event, you want Michigan playing at the X.
March 18th, 2012 at 10:12 AM |
What happened to Grand Rapids
What happened to Grand Rapids
What happened to Grand Rapids as a regional location? It used to host every other year, then dropped out of the rotation a few years ago. Needless to say, this would have been "gold, Jerry, gold" for UM.
"To do is to be" --- Plato
"To be is to do" --- Aristotle
"Do be do be do" --- Frank Sinatra
(written on the stairway wall of the Chem building
March 18th, 2012 at 10:34 AM |
Grand Rapids back in 2013
Grand Rapids back in 2013
as one of the regional sites. UM hosting. Of course NCAA has one in Toledo. Toledo is closer for UM but since UM hosting Grand Rapids they would be placed their if they make the tournament. Why they can't split one in CCHA territority and one in WCHA this year and next year is beyond me.
March 18th, 2012 at 11:59 AM |
when is the bracket released?
when is the bracket released?
Being in CT I was hoping we would get Bridgeport but assume that isn't likely. When is the bracket announced?
March 18th, 2012 at 12:02 PM |
Right now on ESPNU.
Right now on ESPNU.
Right now on ESPNU.
M BSE '05, A&M PhD '11
March 18th, 2012 at 12:03 PM |
thanks - glad I asked
thanks - glad I asked
thanks - glad I asked
March 18th, 2012 at 12:36 PM |
bracket is out
bracket is out
M plays Cornell in Green Bay. Other half of regional is Ferris vs Denver.
Full bracket at www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/icehockey-men/d1/2011
the Team, the Team, the Team!
St. Paul is pretty much doom for any team not teaching its fans how to spell "Minnesota" over and over again. This is where the whole "bracket integrity" bit breaks down, because while as an 8 Minnesota is theoretically the worst 2 seed, everyone in hockey knows that they are the worst one to draw with their home crowd looming.
In the "real" integrity universe that means that putting North Dakota in St. Paul as the lowest #1 is appropriate. Problem--the committee judges bracket integrity based only on numbers, and it also uses attendance as a criteria. Numerical integrity unquestionably favors Michigan in St. Paul, and were North Dakota to draw Western, attendance would arguably favor putting them in Green Bay.
Silver lining: We were in last year's region of death. It went well.
Servant. Pastor. Husband. Michigan fan in Duluth.