chance of bowl: 13.6%
Ok, this is tenuous...
Don Banks has written an article on the worst coaching mistakes in Super Bowl history. It mentions the Pats-Rams Super Bowl that Brady and Law were in... but not really. This really has nothing to do with Michigan at all. Sorry, but it's so unbelievably stupid that I have to talk about it.
The third worst coaching decision in Super Bowl history? Mike Ditka not getting Walter Payton a touchdown in Super Bowl XX. The Bears won that game 46-10! Freaking 46 to freaking 10! You couldn't have picked an event that had a material impact on a game? Or maybe a coach who's team, you know, lost? Number two is Mike Holmgren's absolutely correct decision to let the Broncos score on second and goal from the one with 1:45 left in Super Bowl XXXII. The Pack got the ball back with 1:39 to play on their 30 with two timeouts... oh, and Brett Fav-ruh. 1997 Brett Fav-ruh!
Enough of this. I condemn Don Banks to hell. That's all.