Oh, Hell, One For Reassurance Comment Count

Brian

One last Bubble Watch just to reassure everyone. (UPDATED: 6:30  PM)

When we first looked at the bubble after the Minnesota game, we had between ten and sixteen spots to give out. Since that time, the Horizon League has given out an extra autobid, the Big 12 has allowed Baylor to run to the tourney final, the A-10 has come down to Temple and Duquense, and USC has made the Pac-10 final. San Diego State has made the Mountain West final. Maryland beat Wake Forest, too.

That's a lot of ugly stuff, right there, so let's just make sure. Everyone Pretty Definitively Below Michigan from last time remains there. In addition, Big Huge Tourney Run participants are down to Maryland and Temple, eliminating VT, Miami, Rhode Island, Kansas State, and Providence.

Meanwhile, on the Bubble Proper South Carolina and Florida both lost in opening-round games of the SEC tournament and are definitely not getting in over Michigan, or probably at all. Minnesota and Penn State both went 1-1 at the Big Ten Tournament like Michigan and should remain behind M in the pecking order. Arizona lost an important game against Arizona State and is now widely regarded the last team in. St Mary's got blown out by Gonzaga in the WCC final. Siena won its autobid. New Mexico and UNLV blew it and are out. All of these teams are not threats to Michigan's bid. Just as much spectacularly good stuff happened as unexpectedly bad.

Three teams above Michigan to start took hits, with Texas A&M losing to Texas Tech, Dayton losing to Duquense, and Wisconsin losing to Ohio State. I don't think any are in danger.

So what now

If we count the above three teams as locks still, we have six bids left. These teams could leap in front of Michigan in the pecking order:

The A-10 Winner. Temple may have an at-large case now but it won't be strong enough to pass Michigan should they lose to Duquense in the A-10 final.

That one will happen. So really we have five bids and the following teams that could leap M:

Tulsa. If they beat Memphis. Update: Memphis destroys Tulsa.

Mississippi State or Auburn. If they win the SEC. Update: Mississippi State bashes LSU and is into the final; Auburn is out and you're rooting for Tennessee tomorrow.

Baylor. If they win the Big 12. Update: lost to Missouri and is out.

USC. If they win the Pac-10. Update: USC in.

Maryland. If they win the ACC, or maybe if they get to the final. Update: Maryland lost to Duke; they may get in but it won't be at our expense.

San Diego State. If they win the WAC, and possibly if they don't. Update: lost to Utah.

Utah State? If they don't win their autobid tonight at ten I have no idea how the committee will handle a 29-5 team with no good wins.

&#$*.

That's seven teams, as you can see, for five bids. If any five of these teams pull off the string of upsets, Michigan can get locked out. How likely is that? Not very, as you're asking for the vast majority of some serious upsets to come to fruition. But it is still faintly possible.

So, your final rootin' guide:

  • Memphis over Tulsa, now, CBS.
  • LSU over Mississippi State, ESPN2, 1PM.
  • Tennessee over Auburn, ESPN2, 3:15 PM
  • Duke over Maryland, ESPN, 4 PM
  • Missouri over Baylor, ESPN, 6 PM
  • Utah over San Diego State, 7PM
  • Temple over Duquense, 6PM ESPN2
  • Arizona State over USC, 6PM CBS
  • Utah State over Nevada, 10PM ESPN2

Let's not blow this, universe.

UPDATE: With Duke and Memphis wins, Michigan should be safe. You're rooting for the above still just to be safe.

UPDATE UPDATE: Baylor and San Diego State go down, which knocks Baylor out and SDSU behind Michigan. No worries: they're in.

Comments

Yinka Double Dare

March 14th, 2009 at 12:41 PM ^

If you want a guess on how they handle Utah State, see Butler 2002. 25-5, with a netural win over Indiana but that's pretty much it (they beat Washington on a neutral court and won at Purdue, but both those teams turned out to stink). They were left out of the tournament. And while those extra four wins do make some difference, they were against dreck. They don't/shouldn't count for much.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 9749

lablue

March 14th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^

but i feel like i have sold my soul by rooting for duke so much the last few weeks. i just hope duke cant somehow steal a number one seed if they win the ACC. at least if they're a 2 there's a better chance of them getting knocked out early in the tourney.

Joined: 01/31/2009

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Yinka Double Dare

March 14th, 2009 at 1:00 PM ^

Don't be so sure. They're in Lunardi's "last four in" and there's a lot of danger out there today for those teams. If Maryland loses, they're clearly behind Michigan in line for the at-large berths due to some horrible losses. Also, further to the Utah State discussion, they have one real win, a home win over Utah, and that's it. They lost to St. Marys in the Bracketbusters, and that was St. Mary's WITHOUT Patty Mills. Sorry, but there's no way Utah State should be getting an at large, at least not in front of teams that have multiple real wins on their record. Their resume is even thinner than 2002 Butler.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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NJWolverine

March 14th, 2009 at 2:01 PM ^

But I just don't think you should admit teams with a losing conference record barring some rare extenuating circumstance. It isn't that the ACC is a dominant conference. They aren't. It isn't because of their non-conference, which included some nice wins but also a crushing loss to Morgan St. So I just don't see it. They need to beat Duke today.

Joined: 08/31/2008

MGoPoints: 840

bronxblue

March 14th, 2009 at 3:00 PM ^

I still think 7-9 in conference and losing their last two regular-season games (especially against a pretty bad UVa team) won't be lost on the committee. If Duke pulls out the 30+ point beatdown they handed out earlier in the season, Maryland is out. Listen, if UM had gone 8-10 instead of 9-9, I would fully expect them to not be in the tournament as well. Getting hot for 2 days should not erase deficiencies shown throughout a season.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171032

MI Expat NY

March 14th, 2009 at 2:53 PM ^

LSU isn't helping us by playing like the garbage they are. Man, the SEC is going to get three or four teams in despite being one of the worst big six conferences in recent memory.

Joined: 07/24/2008

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SpartanDan

March 14th, 2009 at 5:30 PM ^

LSU couldn't hold up their end, but Memphis did what they always do when facing a CUSA team and Tennessee held off Auburn. That seems to have eliminated any chance of four SEC bids (although you want Tennessee to beat Miss St to try to hold the SEC to two). Duke with a slight edge on Maryland about 1/3 of the way through the second half, also good news.

Joined: 08/20/2008

MGoPoints: 594

blue edmore

March 14th, 2009 at 5:35 PM ^

...has us pegged as a #10 seed in the West, playing #7 Texas. He seems pretty confident about getting in. As has been noted, he got all 65 last year. Until he has a "bad" year, I'll listen to him before anyone else.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 4

Coach

March 14th, 2009 at 9:14 PM ^

Do you realize how hard it would be for him to have a bad year? Half of his choices are automatic and most of the others may as well be. He only really needs to get 5-10 teams per year and when you're picking those teams on selection Sunday, it gets even easier. There are plenty of people that do a better job than Lunardi, not only in terms of correctly picking the bubble teams, but in picking the seeds as well. Please don't respect him just because he's on the worldwide leader.

Joined: 08/31/2008

MGoPoints: 78

Big Boutros

March 14th, 2009 at 7:33 PM ^

but I couldn't do it. I was pulling hard for Maryland. I can honestly and truly say that I hate Duke basketball as much as any Michigan rival. They are the Penn State football of college basketball.

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 23338

Blue Durham

March 14th, 2009 at 8:29 PM ^

I hate Duke basketball as much as any Michigan rival. The dark side, hate leads to. Give Duke a break, they got no hockey, no football, nothin else but basketball (can't count lacrosse since the ridiculous scandal).

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 6082

NJWolverine

March 14th, 2009 at 9:03 PM ^

The day hasn't gone too badly for us, but what has already transpired will probably knock Penn St. out. USC just secured an auto bid. Baylor lost. They're out for good. Maryland lost. While the consensus is that they're in, I don't think they deserve it. Then again, Wisconsin's paper thin resume doesn't look too good either. Temple won, meaning there will only be three from the A10 for sure. San Diego St. just lost, but they are probably still in because the Mountain West was relatively strong this year. The only other game of significance for bubble teams today is the Utah St. game, where Utah St. must win or else they become a bubble team. The only game of significance tomorrow is the Mississippi St./Tennessee game, where Mississippi St. is looking to steal a bid by qualifying automatically. The dreaded two bid scenario for the SEC is becoming more of a reality. Auburn lost, meaning they're probably out because they have not done enough to warrant an at large bid. That means Mississippi St. has to beat Tennessee tomorrow or else the SEC will have just two teams.

Joined: 08/31/2008

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Sgt. Wolverine

March 14th, 2009 at 9:55 PM ^

Am I the only one who think the automatic bids should go to the regular-season conference champs instead of the conference tournament champs? Because I do. I mean, I know it's fun to think any team could get hot and grab a bid it wouldn't otherwise get, but ... I don't know. I'd just like to see the regular-season crown mean more than the tournament crown.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 3742

jmblue

March 14th, 2009 at 11:15 PM ^

The only point of having these tournaments is for the automatic bid they give out. You couldn't justify making these guys play on 3-4 consecutive days right before the NCAAs otherwise. But obviously, it's only in the small conferences where the conference tourney actually means more. For the major conferences, no one remembers who wins the conference tourney.

Joined: 11/07/2008

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bronxblue

March 14th, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^

I always wondering why they attached auto-bids to the tournaments. Let the conference regular-season winner take the auto-bid (of course, they are in anyway), and treat the conference tournament as a way to improve seeding and, in a few instances, play yourself into the tournament. I mean, if you are a top-5 seed in most major tournaments, you are probably already in the Big Dance, so you are effectively playing for nothing more than seeding - which doesn't change if you an auto-bid is attached to the end of the tournament. As for the teams trying to get hot at the end of the season and make a push, playing deeper into the tournament may sway committee members and give you a chance to sneak in. Sure, some teams are so far out of the picture that the auto-bid is the only way in, but at that point I don't think a team that is 10-22 deserves to get into the tournament over a 22-10 team simply because one played well for 4 days while sucking the past 3+ months. True, it does add some drama, but I'm not sure if rewards the right aspects of college basketball.

Joined: 11/22/2008

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jgunnip

March 15th, 2009 at 4:16 PM ^

Back in the day, the NCAA tournament was just a tournament for all of the conference tournament champions, and everybody else was eligible for the NIT (hence the invitation part). For a time, the NIT was actually considered the more prestigious of the two. So that's where offering the automatic bid to the conference tournament winner comes from.

Joined: 12/08/2008

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SpartanDan

March 15th, 2009 at 2:04 AM ^

What do you do if one team wins both? Give an autobid to the second-place team? Or just turn it into an at-large? This won't work without massive expansion of the tournament, anyway - you would potentially have 62 auto-bids (and there would be major incentives for first-place teams in small conferences to tank in the tourney and get two teams from their conference in). You'd have to go to 96 at minimum. Edit: Given the current setup, though, there are good reasons for the small conferences to go to an unbalanced bracket (double byes for top teams). It improves their chances of getting two teams (if one of the top teams is an at-large candidate, protecting them from a bad early loss might save their bid should they lose) and if not you get a better seed for your representative by making it more likely it's your best team. The one bracket I don't like is the Horizon - instead of giving 1 and 2 double byes and 3-10 none (which means tiebreakers could very easily be the difference between needing two games or four), why not give 1 a double bye and 2-4 a single bye? The bracket would be: First round: 5v10, 6v9, 7v8 Second round: 4v(5/10) (winner faces 1 in the semis), 3v(6/9), 2v(7/8) (winners face off in the other semi)

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