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On To The Next One

By Tim — March 12th, 2010 at 9:12 AM — 6 comments
Filed under:
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  • iowa
  • ohio state

mannyiowa.jpg

Michigan 59 Iowa 52, 2nd Round Big Ten Tournament

Michigan's game-to-game inconsistency has been the story of the season, and we got it gleefully wrapped into one package against Iowa. Of course, to truly represent the 2009-10 Michigan Wolverines it would have ended with a loss, so we're comin' out ahead already, baby. Michigan completely dominated at times, led by DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris. At other times, Cully Payne and Aaron Fuller made Wolverine fans tear their hair out by leading the Hawkeyes on runs to stay in the game. Still, past the first couple minutes, the outcome was rarely in doubt.

Michigan's ability to force turnovers was a big key, though they did get sloppy and commit some turnovers themselves. Giving it up eight times doesn't seem like too much, but considering they didn't turn it over once in the first 14 minutes, and it's clear play got a little sloppy.

Though nobody other than Manny (22 points) and Peedi (14 points) scored in double figures, Michigan got a little scoring from a few other guys, though the shooting woes of Zack Novak and Stu Douglass continued. Douglass and LLP showed a willingness to drive the ball a little bit, and if that had been available all year, this team might have been a little less disappointing. Speaking of disappointing, Darius Morris was practically invisible, and still has work to do before he can put together impressive performances every game.

And with the win, it's on to...

Ohio StateOSU.gif

WHAT Michigan v. Ohio State
WHERE Indianapolis, IN
WHEN 12:00PM EST
March 12th 2010
THE LINE Michigan +9*
TELEVISION ESPN

*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.

When Last We Met

Ohio State controlled the game by owning the second half in Value City Arena just a week ago, eventually emerging with a 66-55 victory. No recap since I didn't get a chance to catch the game, but all five of Michigan's starters scored in double figures, and William Buford paced the Buckeyes with 24 points. Michigan won the turnover battle, like usual, but the shooting went cold in the second half, and Ohio State managed to capitalize for the victory.

Previously, Michigan upset the Buckeyes in Crisler Arena to kick off the New Year. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims scored 52 of Michigan's 73 points. The game also brought us the beginning of VOGRIT, as the freshman led the team in offensive rebounding and made a big block in the paint. I'm skirting around a key fact here though, which is that Evan Turner - winner of several player of the year awards - missed the game with broken vertebrae (spinal injuries what what). With Turner in the lineup, Ohio State has been dominant, sharing the Big Ten crown with Purdue and Michigan State.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy. Also, you'd better hide the women and children before they catch a glimpse of this chart.

Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Ohio State Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. OSU Def eFG% 247 88 OO
Mich Def eFG% v. OSU eFG% 211 4 OOO
Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO% 12 78 M
Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO% 34 31 -
Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb% 290 27 OOO
Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb% 270 273 -
Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR 330 11 OOOO
Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR 7 205 MM
Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD 107 19 O
Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO 46 12 O

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

So, uh, thanks for the entertaining season, guys. Ohio State is clearly the superior team in nearly every category, and Michigan is going to be hard-pressed to find a way to beat the Buckeyes when they have Evan Turner in the lineup.

Michigan's defensive improvement over the course of the season is something of a silver lining, but this Ohio State team is on track for a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA tournament for a reason. Michigan also has a bit more to play for, as Ohio State's season will carry into the NCAA tournament regardless of the outcome, and the Wolverines are in a win-or-go-home situation for the rest of the year.

Kenpom likes Ohio State by 8, and Vegas makes the Buckeyes 9-point favorites. I think Michigan's sense of urgency might keep the game a little bit closer than the experts think. Still it's hard to pick against a squad that's rolling like the Buckeyes are.

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March 12th, 2010 at 9:45 AM | I have faith (Score:1)
Blazefire
Blazefire's picture
Joined: 04/17/2009
MGoPoints: 15742

We can win.

"This is the EMU game, not the emo game."
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March 12th, 2010 at 9:47 AM | The game at OSU (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2785

was actually very competitive, and Michigan has the mental advantage of beating this team this year (not the mental advantage over OSU, the mental advantage of believing that they are playing a beatable team).

Here is the deal, Michigan can shoot, they did it for much of the season last year and in spurts this year. I believe percentages hold that these threes have to start falling at some point. Michigan last three games have been a smack down of Minnesota and a decisive win against Iowa on a nuetral floor sandwiched between a "wrong place-wrong time" situation against MSU. Michigan has played the Buckeyes head up this year and has not even played particularly well in doing so. And their next loss is their last game.

Is a win likely, no. But it would not be comparable to the miracle on ice either.

Prediction: OSU 70 Michigan 64 - Overtime.

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March 12th, 2010 at 9:49 AM | maybe... (Score:1)
Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture
Joined: 02/20/2009
MGoPoints: 1863

Maybe they can pull this off. I seriously doubt it, but after watching the upset fest that the Big East tourney has become, I guess you never know. (Side note, who doesn't love the Big East tourney? What a great event) Anyway, OSU hasn't played since the night Michigan beat Minnesota, and that could go two ways. One, they're well rested and demolish our tired team. Two, they're rusty and we're a well oiled machine... So I guess it's probably number one.

On the bright side, if they can win this one somehow, I might start getting excited about the possibility of a real run. I think OSU is the class of the league, so getting by them would be huge.

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March 12th, 2010 at 9:59 AM | "Well-oiled machined" (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2785

LOL, that is good stuff. OSU is good, but I think as is par, MSU is the class of the league (pending Chris Allen news). Amen re Big East touney, always great energy, 6 frickin overtimes....wild.

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March 12th, 2010 at 12:21 PM | I'm not entirely a believer (Score:1)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28963

I'm not entirely a believer in MSU. I think they're far too sloppy with the ball to be a dominant team. Purdue with Hummel was the class of the conference IMO. Now it's a tough call. I think I'd give the edge to OSU because Turner is a matchup nightmare.

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March 12th, 2010 at 10:06 AM | If Michigan is going to pull (Score:1)
gordie bell
gordie bell's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 7962

If Michigan is going to pull an upset in this tourney, it will be today :) Other than that they lose today :(

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