in case anyone gets a football bug during this basketball, hockey moment, I have a new post up about the importance of field position, punt and punt returns...
New football post on three and out
That was interesting gsimms...nice job.
I wonder how Brian feels about this given his complaints about Carr "playing it safe" and punting? I'm assuming Carr was playing the percentages, for instance, in the 2005 OSU game when he punted to OSU in the 4th Quarter only to have them drive down the field for the winning score. Hindsight is always 20/20 on decisions like that, but perhaps Carr knew the odds we're in favor of punting.
But it's not a good decision when your defense can't stop the other team. When Carr punted I told my dad that he just lost the game. Nostradamus I'm not, but I felt certain that OSU would move the ball and had plenty of time to do it. Why not go on fourth down when the other team's offense makes up the punt yardage in a couple of plays?
To win the game, your defense is going to need to make a stop at some point. It's a team game. And like someone said above, hindsight is 20/20.
Sometimes you've got to accept that your D probably isn't going to get that stop, and call offensive plays accordingly. What made it especially maddening is that our 3rd-down playcall right before it (a screen to Bass that gained 7 yards) seemed designed to set up a manageable 4th down, and yet we punted anyway.
At any rate, even if we'd tried on that 4th down and failed, we'd have actually ended up in a better position (assuming an OSU TD) that we ended up being in, since it would have meant that OSU would have covered the field and scored more quickly.
Not to mention the fact that Troy Smith was running the OSU offense. Michigan couldn't stop that guy ever, in 3 years, not sure why Carr thought they could at that moment.
Oh well, I just figure Carr knew a lot more about what was happening than any of us ever will, and had Michigan stopped OSU on that drive he would have been commended. (let's not forget that Gonzalez went out of bounds and then caught the ball illegally on a crucial play in that drive.......yes, I'm still bitter).
if he wanted to Brian could articulate an argument, with graphs, links to other articles, etc. and blow a hole in my coaching philosophies. I dont think he will because i dont think he is that interested in what I do with MY team.
Like i said, this is more the thought process of coaches, during a game, while also taking into acount all the other game time/real time variables that are changing during the moments.
for example, sometimes i tell my coach to go for it on 4th down becasue i dont trust our punt coverage team, or our punter to put the ball where i want it.
the past 2 years the punter has cost me 2 very important games. and in the playoffs this year, we lost momentum with a punt fake for a td, against our punt return team...
I would agree with most of the OP. As mentioned, there are numerous variables (current field position, time of game, score, ability or lack thereof of your defense to stop their offense, ability or lack thereof of your offense to move on their defense) which must be accounted for.
The problem, imho, is predictability. It is important to go for it WHEN THEY LEAST EXPECT IT. Obviously, with a qb like Henne, or Brady, and a decent OL, you can go for it on 4th when they expect it. But more importantly, with a mobile former qb on the field with the kicking team (someone like Feagin?,) and a decent OL and former receiver on the field, you can do a trick play and go for it when they're expecting a punt. It is my observation that when such plays succeed, they can greatly shift the momentum of the game. High risk, but high reward. If you are down a TD or two, it is near the end of the first half or mid-way through the 3rd quarter, you are on the 40 or 45, you have 4 - 6 yards to go for a first down, I would consider going for it.
but if you punt it down to their 10, you have a better chance of scoring then they do, or that you did even if you got the first down you were trying to get... 4th and 6, the defense can pin its ears back and just protect the sticks... you have very little chance of being successfull..
If you're talking about the 2005 OSU game, it was 4th and 4 when we punted, not 4th and 6.
I remember watching the SEC championship game in '06. Fla was pinned back inside of their own 15 and had a 4th and 8 or so. They went for the fake punt and absolutely destroyed the confidence of AR for the rest of the game. That to me was probably the best description of high risk high reward. It did not hurt that this was the team that went on to win the NC that year.
in that game. They got the first down, but on the same drive they were stopped again. On the ensuing punt they recovered a fumble by the return man in the endzone that gave them the lead. Arkansas kept it close the rest of the game. I wouldn't say their confidence was destroyed. That one play just swung the momentum enough.
Nice ride gsimmons. What year? I'm guessing 2002 because it's got the thicker spoke wheels. I had a '98 back in the day. It was a great car.