NCAA Tournament Preview: Notre Dame Comment Count

Ace

Tourney Previews Have a Sponsor (via Seth): My good friend Matt Demorest has built himself a nice little niche mortgage business in Southeast Michigan. I had a rather complicated FHA refinance for my house last fall, and despite that it a) took less of my time than filling out my bracket, b) cost half of what I paid to do our original loan, and, c) saved me so much the refi's already paid for itself.

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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #11 Michigan (23-12, 10-8 B1G) vs

#6 Notre Dame (21-11, 11-7 ACC)
WHERE Barclays Center

Brooklyn, New York
WHEN ~9:40 pm ET, Friday
LINE Notre Dame -2 (KenPom)
TV CBS

PBP: Verne Lundquist

Analyst: Jim Spanarkel

Right: Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson is a fringe lottery prospect. [AP photo]

THE US

Since this has somehow been a question I've had to answer multiple times: no, Caris LeVert is not playing tomorrow. Unless John Beilein gives Moe Wagner a more prominent role (please?), the rotation will be the usual.

THE STAKES

Rivalry trash-talking rights and a spot in the second round on Sunday, most likely facing three-seed West Virginia.

KenPom gives Notre Dame a 55% chance to win, putting the spread at two points. FiveThirtyEight isn't as high on Michigan's upset chances, pegging the Irish as 66% favorites. The Vegas line opened at ND -1.5 and has since moved to ND -3.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss SIBMIHHAT
G 11 Demetrius Jackson Jr. 6'1, 201 86 24 Kinda
Excellent passer, good finisher for a PG, iffy outside shooter, high steal rate.
G 32 Steve Vasturia Jr. 6'5, 212 90 18 No
51/36/86 shooting splits, can be turnover-prone when he drives.
F 3 VJ Beachem Jr. 6'8, 200 76 16 No
Takes more threes than twos, hits 43% of them. Despite size, not a rebounder.
F 35 Bonzie Colson So. 6'5, 225 65 22 Very
Plays big. Excellent rebounder and shot-blocker, gets most of points in the paint.
F 30 Zach Auguste Sr. 6'10, 245 74 27 Very
Outstanding rebounder, decent shot-blocker, good finisher who draws fouls.
F 4 Matt Ryan Fr. 6'8, 217 39 15 No
Extreme Just A Shooter™ making 38% of his threes.
G 0 Rex Pflueger Fr. 6'6, 198 28 11 Kinda
Barely utilized when on the court. 12/27 2P, 8/25 3P on the season.
G 5 Matt Farrell So. 6'1, 175 21 14 Yes
Low-usage, turnover-prone PG with bad shooting numbers. Doesn't play much.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Notre Dame, statistically, is this year's Michigan team taken to the extremes: the Irish have the #10 offense on KenPom and the #172 defense. Yes, their defense is substantially worse than Michigan's. That is apparently possible. When this matchup became a possibility I watched the ND-Clemson game from last month. This two-possession sequence sums up the Irish as well as any. A gorgeous offensive set that ends in a lob to star point guard Demetrius Jackson...

...is immediately followed by a three-pointer allowed when Bonzie Colson switches on a high screen and then, uh, just wanders away from the guy with the ball:

The Irish run a beautiful offense that can generate points with efficiency from anywhere on the floor. They also play defense in a fashion that gets them routinely bombed from the perimeter. Via Shot Analytics:

For the second straight game, Michigan faces a lead guard who gets to the basket and finishes with regularity despite lacking a reliable outside shot. While ND's Demetrius Jackson doesn't have the extreme splits of Tulsa's Shaquille Harrison, he's a much better scorer from inside the arc than outside of it (see graphic below left):

Jackson boasts a solid assist-to-turnover ratio and gets to the line fairly often. Even when he doesn't get all the way to the hoop on his drives he's a scoring threat; he's got a nice pull-up jumper when shot-blockers don't step out on him after he's driven by his man.

Wings Steve Vasturia and VJ Beachem are the primary outside shooting threats in the starting lineup. While Vasturia isn't an elite three-point shooter at 36%, he's the more well-rounded player, making 51% of his twos due to a solid midrange game and a willingness to go to the hoop. Beachem, on the other hand, pretty much sticks to the perimeter, but he's got a lethal shot; he makes 43% of his three-pointers and doesn't have a weak spot beyond the arc (see above right). Beachem is likely to draw the Robinson/Dawkins matchup; how well Michigan's weakest defenders stick with him on the perimeter will play a big role in determining the winner of this one.

Bonzie Colson might be undersized for a power forward at 6'5", 225 pounds, but he certainly doesn't play like it. He's nationally ranked in rebounding on both ends of the floor, as well as shot-blocking, and almost all his field goal attempts come from inside the paint—he's not a shooter, but he uses his strength to get putbacks and opportunistic post buckets when he's switched onto smaller players. Zak Irvin will have his hands full.

So will Michigan's big men. ND's Zach Auguste tallied top-50 rebound rates on both offense and defense, hit 55% of his shots from the field, and posted a >50 FT Rate this season. At 6'10", 245 pounds, he's both bigger and more skilled than the Tulsa centers Moe Wagner had success against last night. While ND doesn't run a ton of offense through the post, they'll spread the floor and let Auguste go to work on occasion. He does have a couple weak spots, namely an elevated turnover rate and an underwhelming 63% mark from the free-throw line.

As is the norm under Mike Brey, Notre Dame doesn't play their bench much at all—just 21.7% of available minutes, 344th in the country. The three players that get even spot minutes all have usage rates below 15; they're out there mostly as placeholders. The one to watch is 6'8" freshman wing Matt Ryan, a pure Just A Shooter™—120 3PA against 21 2PA on the season—who makes 38% of his threes.

THE RESUME

The Irish have a couple marquee conference wins highlighting an otherwise unremarkable resumé. They didn't have a notable non-conference win, falling in their three games against KenPom top-100 competition, including a seven-point neutral-court loss against Indiana. They avoided a bad loss all year—their worst came against #98 Alabama—and they went 2-0 against Duke this year while also adding victories over UNC and Louisville. They were swept by Miami and Pitt, however, and lost their lone matchups against Virginia and Syracuse. In ND's most recent game, UNC got their revenge in the ACC tournament, crushing them 78-47.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Full-season statistics.



Four Factors explanation

Notre Dame doesn't quite blow you away in any one offensive category aside from turnovers (11th nationally) but they're solid across the board; they're ranked somewhere in the 35-70 range in two-point shooting, three-point shooting, free-throw shooting, and offensive rebounding, with free-throw rate their only weak point.

As noted above, the Irish really struggle to defend the perimeter, which partially offsets solid two-point defense—they tend to avoid contact to a fault (Michigan fans are familiar with this) and collapse into the paint, which opens up the outside. They're not a good defensive rebounding team and they're among the worst in the country at forcing turnovers. While they don't quite play into Michigan's hands as much as the turnover-reliant Tulsa defense, they'll give M plenty of chances to snap out of their shooting funk.

THE KEYS

Off-ball defense. Notre Dame runs a lot of motion and they move the ball really well in both halfcourt and transition. Michigan's defenders can't get caught up on screens or fail to communicate switches; the Irish are too well-coached for those type of mistakes. The lob posted above is one example; here's another from a fast break:

Clemson didn't identify the player down low, sending the defense into chaos when he got the ball, and then ND put on a passing clinic to get the best possible shot out of a series of potentially good looks.

Yes, I'm especially worried about the Beachem-Robinson/Dawkins matchup in this regard. I'll be surprised if Brey doesn't make it a point to attack those guys, something ND can do within the framework of their offense.

Stay in front of Jackson. One way Notre Dame can create havoc regardless of how well Michigan defends off the ball is getting Jackson into the paint, where he's an efficient scorer who also looks to kick out to open shooters. Michigan will have a hard time providing Walton/MAAR much help; doing so will either free up a good outside shooter or a strong finisher/rebounder. M's guards did a decent job of slowing down a similar slasher point guard in the first half against Tulsa, but Shaquille Harrison got just about whatever he wanted in the second; the perimeter defense must improve this time around.

Make open threes. Simple, obvious, and absolutely critical. Notre Dame's weakest spot on defense—the right side from the wing down to the corner—happens to coincide with Duncan Robinson's favorite places to shoot the ball. Here's hoping he's on his game tomorrow night.

THE MOMENT OF ZEN

The last time these two teams played on the hardwood turned out quite well.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Notre Dame by 2.

After the last couple weeks, it's hard to be very optimistic about Michigan winning with outside shooting, something they'll have to do in this one. If there's ever a team that would allow that to happen, however, it's this Notre Dame outfit. Auguste could end up being the difference; he's a much better post player than anyone Tulsa threw out there yesterday.

Comments

Lanknows

March 17th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^

Michigan shot 38% on the year and 37% in conference play.  They shot better than their season average only once in the last 7 games. 

It's hard not to be optimistic when we have 3 starters in Robinson, Irvin, and Walton who can shoot around 40%, plus Dawkins off the bench. 

The key is getting them good looks. If we can get good production out of the MAAR/Wagner pick and roll our shooters should have plenty of good opportunities against ND.

In reply to by Lanknows

Richard75

March 18th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^

Those numbers belie a ton of ups and downs—which aren't all that random.

Michigan's 3FG accuracy tends to coincide with whether they're getting looks transition. Such shots (like Robinson's first against Tulsa) are more open and allow the shooter to step into it.

The problem is 1) good opponents are organized getting back and identifying shooters and 2) you can't get in transition when you can't get a stop. Michigan also obviously has a number of issues generating shots in the half court. And so this is why you have this dynamic of great 3FG numbers against bad teams and horrendous performances against good ones.




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Lanknows

March 18th, 2016 at 2:18 PM ^

1 - Some of it, maybe a lot of it, IS random.

2 - I assume you meant good DEFENSIVE opponents, when you talk about opponent effect on 3 point percentage.  To that I agree, but Notre Dame is a horrendous defensive team.  WVU's press would theoretically lead to some good open looks too (as long as you can avoid turnovers).

M-Dog

March 18th, 2016 at 12:49 AM ^

Since the Iowa game, when we have been in de-facto win or go home tournament mode, our 3 point shooting has to be something less than 30%.  We have been awful.  It's actually been our D and production at the rim that has let us survive to where we are now.

We really need the 3 pointers to start falling big time.  We can't keep cobbling together wins on 6 of 25 3-point shooting.

Steves_Wolverines

March 17th, 2016 at 6:20 PM ^

I'm feeling a lot better after watching some of these games today.

Michigan came out flat, but who hasn't? 

ND will have to shake off the March Madness jitters, while Michigan is already game tested.

Go Blue!

bronxblue

March 17th, 2016 at 6:28 PM ^

I'm not remotely excited about playing WVU in the next round, but this feels like about as good as matchup as you could see for a 1st round game.

Musket Rebellion

March 17th, 2016 at 6:50 PM ^

I was at the 2005 game. Notre Dame opened up a big lead only for us to storm back. Students in the upper deck started chanting "Urban Meyer" at the ND fans in attendance because he had just spurned them to coach at Florida, ushering in the Charlie Weis era. 

Miss you, big guy.

Ty Butterfield

March 17th, 2016 at 8:34 PM ^

Michigan has a win and I hope they can play loose. At this point Michigan is playing with house money. They snuck into the dance and avoided an embarrassing loss. Certainly could have been much worse. At least they avoided playing Arkansas-Little Rock.

Alumnus93

March 17th, 2016 at 9:09 PM ^

we will have zero chance if Donnal doesn't contribute. When is this guy gonna be consistent....
and Wagner deserves to start. Hes gonna be a star, he just needs playing time in US game.

Wolvie3758

March 18th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^

I figured the pressure was 0ff and we"d be 0n fire against TuIsa  that didnt happen Im Iess incIined ab0ut winning 

we need aII the pIayers in sync and having their best game if we are upsetting ND , the TuIsa game was just the same aggravating frustrating Michigan team but a win is a win I guess