The Navarre Zone Comment Count

Brian

9/9/2017 – Michigan 36, Cincinnati 14 – 2-0

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furk [Eric Upchurch]

There is always a tipping point when something that probably won't happen becomes something that probably will happen. Sometimes this is nice, like when the entire NFL swears up and down that Jim Harbaugh wouldn't go back to Ann Arbor for love or money. Sometimes it is not nice.

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If we aren't already at the tipping point where "Wilton Speight makes a lot of critical mistakes" is a reasonable, seemingly immutable theory, surely we are approaching it.

The weird thing is the way these critical mistakes are loosed into the world. Anybody can throw several passes into defenders' facemasks. Killing your team with a blizzard of boggling interceptions is almost common in college football, where injuries and the vagaries of rostering regularly see peach-fuzzed high schoolers thrown into a tank of piranhas. Sometimes people transfer from Tulane and are expected to stop throwing interceptions, for reasons unknown.  Also apparently the NFL has this issue. Twitter informs me Scott Tolzien—yes, that guy—started a game this weekend. Twitter hastens to note that things did not go well. The hopelessly overmatched panic machine quarterback is so common it's a football trope.

Speight, on the other hand, has an air of cool control up until the moment he wings a pass so high that Donovan Peoples-Jones correctly decides his best bet is to spike it, or he turns around to hand air to his running back, or he does that again for the second time in one dang game. He does not seem overwhelmed. He hasn't thrown into coverage except on rare, understandable occasions*. He's yelling at his peach-fuzzed skill player crew about where to line up regularly. He makes a bunch of checks at the line. He is a man in command.

And then.

The very bad events are adding up. Everyone misses guys or makes bad reads or eats a sack on occasion. Speight's bad has been explosively bad, and maximally punished. Thus this column, which is lot like 2015's Jake Rudock is going to kill us column.

Rudock, of course, did not kill Michigan. He turned into a fine college player and Matt Stafford caddy, and even now it's not too hard to see Speight getting it together. His issues are fairly simple to correct; they jumped out at me, a layman, on a re-watch and Speight confirmed it in the postgame press conference:

“What it comes down to is, when there's something going on in my face – when I avoid the pressure – I've got to keep my base. Coach Pep is big on keeping my base. Staying loaded. And sometimes when I move around in the pocket, I get a little sloppy with my feet and it causes the ball to sail or go a little low."

Speight was leaning back a bunch in this game and the resulting throws were high. Nick Baumgardner with a preview of what UFR is going to say:

Also he's dorfing handoffs because he's not listening to Harbaugh. Two seemingly simple fixes yet to make it to the field in year four. This cuts both ways: if Speight can fix his lingering issues Michigan has that commanding guy when he throws straight and does not fumble exchanges, and that seems pretty good.

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deep shot hit rate: muchly [Bryan Fuller]

There are very good reasons that Speight is keeping his competition stapled to the bench, and it's that upside. Nobody else on the roster is going to walk on the field and know where everyone else has to be, a critical skill given the average age of Michigan's offense. Nobody else is going to have all the checks in his head, or the pocket presence.

The things Wilton Speight needs to fix are fixable in a timespan of weeks. John O'Korn and Brandon Peters do not have flaws (presence and youth, respectively) nearly as tractable, and so Michigan is going to ride with Speight and hope like hell these blips are just that, and not a pattern that will clobber a promising season like it did in Iowa City last year.

Until further notice, all dropbacks will be evaluated with a jaundiced eye and glance towards Columbus. Welcome to the John Navarre zone.

*[In this game he tried a deep shot to a bracketed Peoples-Jones because there were only two guys in the route and both were covered and what else was he going to do, which is fine.]

HIGHLIGHTS

Inside Michigan Football:

AWARDS

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mobile man mauls Mouhon [Fuller]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

-2535ac8789d1b499[1]you're the man now, dog

#1 Mason Cole. This is a bit of a guess but OL never get the proper amount of respect in this section because I haven't gone over things with a fine-toothed comb yet. Cole helped Michigan bust a lot of crack sweeps, and while Isaac got the yardage on the long one it was Cole's ability to ID the force defender, declare him harmless, and go wreck a safety that sprung the play. He gave up nothing in pass protection, as well.

#2(t) Khaleke Hudson, Devin Bush, and Tyree Kinnel. Michigan's bushel of short fast dudes on defense terrorized the Cincinnati backfield, collecting all of Michigan's sacks on the day. Each also had their moments in the ground game as well; Kinnel in particular had a couple of critical tackles. Oh, and a pick six. (That was a bit of a gift, yes.) I'm rounding up and giving each gent a point. The points are made up and don't matter, people!

#3 Ty Isaac. Isaac was Michigan's best back again, slaloming through waves of opponent players. He alternated bounces with interior runs that kept UC off guard and used his size and speed combination to excellent effect.

Honorable mention: Winovich, Hurst, and Gary were all effective in bursts. Brandon Watson was in the back pocket of many a wide receiver. Grant Perry was efficient, explosive, and dangit that third down was a catch. Zach Gentry had a couple of key receptions.

Honorary Honorable mention: Baker Mayfield.

KFaTAotW Standings.

4: Devin Bush (#1, Florida, T2 Cincinnati)
3: Mason Cole (#1, Cincinnati), Ty Isaac (#2, Florida, #3 Cincinnati)    
1: Quinn Nordin (#3, Florida), Khaleke Hudson (T2 Cincinnati), Tyree Kinnel (T2 Cincinnati).

Who's Got It Better Than Us Of The Week

Grant Perry's third-quarter grab and go both further established him as a bonafide top-flight, experienced receiver but staked Michigan to a two score lead that allowed most to exhale.

Honorable mention: This week the good section gets to talk about Pick Six #1 and Pick Six #2. You will like them better here, I imagine. Also: Ty Isaac rips a long one off down the sideline, Speight hits Kekoa Crawford with a bomb; Rashan Gary hulks up after nearly getting ejected and gets the crowd hyped.

imageMARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Speight's second dorfed exchange ends a promising drive for Michigan and causes even the aggressively reasonable to think this guy has a long term issue.

Honorable mention: Cincinnati rips off a long touchdown drive to start the third quarter and create a period of squeaky bum time; Donovan Peoples-Jones turns out to be Not Jabrill Peppers on punt returns; various Speight overthrows; that one play where both guards pulled in opposite directions.

[After THE JUMP: oh also a defense]

OFFENSE

Speight. As above. I've obviously downgraded my expectations for him since the rollercoaster is clearly still in effect. I'm still not anywhere near the complaining wing of the fanbase that fills my mentions with bitches about how I was wrong about something in the season preview. He's the guy, clearly, and if he resolves half of his issues he's a guy Michigan can win many things with opposite this defense.

Insufficient receivers. One mitigating factor for Speight: Michigan is running a ton of max protect, and too often the two or three guys in routes are blanketed. I understand why Michigan's doing it—the right side of the line—but it feels extreme to me when it's goal to go from the ten and Zach Gentry is staying in.

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[Fuller]

Grant Perry remains good. Having an utterly reliable slot receiver is a nice thing. Having one who can take a slight horizontal edge and burst for a 33-yard touchdown is a very nice thing. Perry is delivering on all of his recruiting takes and then some; he is a better athlete than those takes gave him credit for. Anyone lacking as sufficient appreciation for his game should just check out the Ohio State wide receivers after two games. Those guys wear defensive backs like parkas, man.

Also Perry did not spin the ball. Not like he was going to. Post-Florida takes about how Perry had some serious growing up to do—or whatever fusty old man stuff was on offer—were ridiculous. He had a bad habit and didn't immediately break it. That habit was not challenged during fall camp, because obviously, and given a week they successfully went back to the hand-the-ball-to-the-ref thing.

Meanwhile Perry's emergence as a 50-catch-plus guy (he's on pace for 52 after two games with not a lot of throwing) takes a lot of pressure off of the freshmen, especially because he can be the chain-mover while they try to grab deeper shots.

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jumbo jumbo wide receiver [Fuller]

Each week a new tight end. Heavy rotation at the tight end spot once again and Zach Gentry finally got to display his chops on a couple of downfield catches from five-wide. He looked real good on 'em, and if Speight is going to continually overthrow guys I recommend that he target Gentry a bunch more because he's hard to overthrow.

Wheatley and McKeon also got in on the passing game; Wheatley also had at least one play where he caved in one side of the Cincinnati defense. Ian Bunting's continued sort-of absence is about to be real bad for him since he doesn't seem hurt. He's lost in the shuffle right now.

Very five wide. Michigan's passing spread tendencies were further confirmed in this one, when Michigan seemed to go five wide empty on most passing downs that weren't super long, and several others beside. Michigan did good work from this formation. I wonder when and if we're going to see the rumored tailback participation; through two games Michigan hasn't thrown a single pass to their running backs.

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frippery frip [Upchurch]

Well, dangit. The above shot is from Michigan's most frippery-laden play on the day, a couple of fake handoffs followed by a fullback wheel route that Cincinnati covered just fine. You may remember this play from the MSU game a couple of years ago, and that Michigan stole it. I'm impressed that the Cinci guy didn't lose Hill, because who covers a fullback wheel route two weeks into a new coaching regime? This guy, I guess.

Speight had a small window that he missed, and if all of his misses were like the one above we're feeling much better about him this morning. That's off by a little bit; too many of his misses were off  by a mile.

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[Fuller]

Inevitable; hopefully fixable. Onwenu had a couple of bad pass protection moments. On one he was straight-up beat by his man and gave up a sack; a second pressure ceded came when he and Ulizio failed to ID and address a stunt between the DE and DT. Later in the game Cincinnati returned to that stunt and the right side of the line handled it, so they are making some progress.

Ulizio was probably fine? Nothing he did jumped out as a huge problem on a surface-level rewatch. I don't recall any pass protection issues, and that's good. Now his level of competence is "less than Florida but greater than Cincinnati." We'll see if that holds up on a detailed rewatch.

Of interest only to obsessives. Second team OL in warmups from left to right: Filiaga, Ruiz, Vastardis, Runyan, JBB. Ruiz wore 96 and got in as a sixth OL a little bit, FWIW. There are a couple of inferences to make there. One: Vastardis is on that line ahead of Spanellis*, a guy who drew a fair bit of "he'll be good down the road" praise this fall. He continues to track as a bonus OL. Two: as soon as they decided on Ulizio they moved Runyan back to guard. Three: no Stueber despite the fact he's seen the field. Back tweak incoming.

*[I know Spanellis is a guard but it would be very easy to have Ruiz or Runyan at C and have Spanellis on the second team line.]

On the one hand; on the other. Nate Schoenle got a fair amount of time, so that offseason hype was also for real. Unfortunately his main contribution was a screamingly obvious holding call that brought back a long crack sweep.

DEFENSE

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veeeeeeeeeeeroooom [Fuller]

Even more excellent than statistics suggest. Michigan held Cincinnati to 233  yards of offense—official stats subtracted 33 on the yakety snap on the punt—and while this is very very good it fails to capture the whole picture. Because of the various turnovers in this game, Michigan faced a ton of drives: 16 in total, 15 in the competitive portions of the game.

Of those 15 drives only three lasted more than four plays: the short-field TD drive after the punt muff, the end-of-half drive that Michigan would have had a stop on if not for end of half things, and the 75-yard TD drive to kick off the third quarter. The outing did not feel as dominant as the Florida one because Michigan got hit on some things that all relatively competent spread offenses are going to hit you with occasionally; it was still very, very dominant. Not that I need to tell you that after the defense gave up zero net points.

If this game moves the needle for anyone it's probably Florida; a few twitterers suggested that Cincinnati's offense looked better than the Gators', and they might not be wrong.

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this still doesn't go so well [Upchurch]

Familiar bugaboos. When Cincinnati did pick up yards it was almost always in one of two ways: tunnel screens and exploiting Mike McCray in space. Both of those issues cropped up a year ago. Maryland racked up almost 100 yards on tunnel screens in 2016, and McCray's tendency to get lost or outrun when he was forced to leave the box was a major theme during the second half of the season.

McCray's issues in space have waxed and waned sort of like Speight's accuracy. This was not a good day for them. He got beat on a wheel route that wasn't as much of a pick as I thought it was going to be; he got juked badly on a flare to the running back; he more or less tackled the same guy on the holding call at the end of the first half; his zone drops were insufficiently deep on a few intermediate shots.

Michigan's willingness to expose McCray to situations like this is about my only Don Brown complaint. (Let me be clear: this the mildest, most breathtakingly gentle of complaints.) The situation that induced the holding call was inexplicable to me: it's fourth and eleven; Michigan lines McCray up in man in the slot while leaving Khaleke Hudson in the box to blitz. Invert that and things are sure to go better.

There's some level of edge exposure it's impossible to protect McCray from. Michigan should be doing what they can to erase the rest of it. Put anyone else in the slot.

The Don Brown hat trick. I have invented this. A Don Brown hat trick is three sacks from defensive backs. (Viper counts; a natural Don Brown hat trick is three different DBs getting sacks.) Michigan had a Don Brown hat trick in this game with one sack from Kinnel and two from Hudson. Two of those—one each—were Brown blitzes generating free runs at the quarterback. The third was an outstanding play from Hudson to beat the right tackle, get held, and get to the quarterback anyway.

GARY ANGRY. Rashan Gary almost got ejected on a terrible targeting call.

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[Upchurch]

Let's try to have that happen in the first quarter of all games going forward.

Escape from slant-corner. Michigan's safety coverage has been good to excellent so far with two major exceptions, both in the second half of this game. Metellus and Hudson both got beat badly on corner routes that could have ceded touchdowns. Hudson saw his man drop a ball in his breadbasket; Metellus's man was overthrown.

Cincinnati did a good job of setting that up by running a ton of slants early in the second half. After the first one Michigan was covering those excellently. Then Cincinnati switched to double moves on those and both safeties got burnt. Something to work on.

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[Upchurch]

Already par for the course. Devin Bush got a free run in this game, and this was a sack. So far his ability to come in super hot but still maintain enough control to take a good angle to the quarterback is remarkable. I've seen guys close like Bush did on his sack, and it seems like most of the time the QB steps up and the guy goes flying by.

Beast Mone. Bryan Mone got much more run in this game than he did against Florida. He didn't do anything flashy, but did contribute to a Bearcat interior ground game that was all but hopeless. He again proved he's a useful bull in a china shop on a second-half third and one on which he didn't just stand up to a double but deposited it two yards in the backfield. A nigh-singlehanded third and one stop is a big win.

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[Fuller]

From the "happy to be wrong" department. Brandon Watson looked dang good for the second straight game. He had another Mutumbo incident on the sideline, for one. This one wasn't as good as last week's—he'd lost a step and there was a window—but his awareness and ability to track the ball allowed him to break up a decent throw. Two other times he was tested he was there to break it up. He's exceeding expectations.

The cornerbacks are doing so as a group. When guys popped open in this game it was against safeties or in zone pockets. Hill, Long, and Watson have been in tight coverage for the duration.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Goodbye, certainty. If special teams weren't an outright disaster in this game they were close to it. A punt bonked off one of Michigan's blockers for a turnover that led to Cincinnati's first touchdown; Will Hart shanked two second-half punts that set Cincinnati up with excellent field position. Boy, never having to worry about anything on special teams except for that one weird Wisconsin game was great. And now it's less great.

Punt field follies. I thought the first two dodgy punt incidents were more on the blockers not getting out of the way than anything else. I still kind of think that—it looks like DPJ is shouting and pointing on the second one at least—but the insertion of Perry as a punt returner rather argues otherwise. DPJ got yanked after he allowed a very fieldable punt to bounce and then somehow got himself in a situation where he felt compelled to grab it while surrounded by six Bearcats.

The downgrade from Peppers was suddenly apparent. DPJ didn't have to make these decisions against Florida and their cyborg punter. He could just field a 55 yard punt without worry about anyone else, and then go get some yards. When presented with 35-yard wounded ducks he fell apart.

Perry didn't do anything but fair catch balls that should have been fair caught, but that was an upgrade on DPJ. Ask again later.

At least the kickers were good. Nordin hit a couple chip shots and Foug got touchbacks on 6 of 7 kickoffs. #collegekickers can happen to anyone at anytime—Arkansas missed FGs of 19 and 23 yards on Saturday—so I'm not going to dismiss even chippies just yet. Ten more FGAs and then I'll start taking Nordin for granted.

MISCELLANEOUS

I'm tellin' all y'all. Michigan players arriving for the game or Beastie Boys cosplayers?

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mock rock plans: revealed [Eric Upchurch]

That's Jared Wangler as Cochese and Henry Poggi as "The Chief," FWIW. Good to see that Poggi's sane-looking-person phase was brief.

    Redshirt status, part two. A few freshmen who didn't get during the Florida game hit the field Saturday. Your current redshirt statuses, with new entries in bold:

    • DUH: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tarik Black, Aubrey Solomon
    • SENSIBLE: Ben Mason, Cesar Ruiz, Kwity Paye, Ambry Thomas, J'Marick Woods, Jaylen Kelly-Powell.
    • MIGHT GET INJURED BEFORE THEY PLAY IN GAME 5: Andrew Stueber, Benjamin St Juste, O'Maury Samuels, Josh Ross, Brad Hawkins.

    And the still pristine:

    • Chuck Filiaga, Luiji Vilain, Drew Singleton, Jordan Anthony, Dylan McCaffrey, Nico Collins, Oliver Martin, James Hudson, Deron-Irving Bey, Donovan Jeter, JaRaymond Hall, Joel Honigford, Phil Paea, Kurt Taylor, Brad Robbins.

    I saw Vilain (and Kareem Walker) in street clothes; Martin and Jeter were also not on the dress list. Those three are candidates to play whenever they get back from their injuries. I'd imagine the rest of the guys who haven't played yet are locked into redshirts. I have few complaints if that's how it works out this year. Only Stueber jumps out as redshirt you'd really like to get amongst the third category above.

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    yea their punishments are swift and hilarious [Bryan Fuller]

    Fourth downs. Two bizarre fourth down decisions in this one:

    • Late in the first half Michigan found itself with fourth and a half-yard at their own 40 after Tarik Black's would-be first down reception was correctly deemed short on review. Despite having Mike Onwenu and Khalid Hill, a combination that barreled forward for four seeming unstoppable yards against Florida, Michigan punted. We've seen Harbaugh cowboy up for fourth and short in that area before, and it's difficult to envision Cincinnati standing up to Michigan's beef machines. Dios mio, man. However, not to be outdone...
    • Luke Fickell decided to punt on fourth and two, down 13 points, with seven minutes left in the game. This cowardly act was punished with a swiftness. Fickell compounded his error by dithering; by the time he sent the punt team out they had to rush if they weren't going to burn a precious time out; the ensuing snap zinged by a punter who was looking at his feet, preparing his footwork.

    In our as-of-yet imaginary list of chickenshit opponent coaching decisions in the Harbaugh era, Fickell's punt slides in just under James Franklin's sad field goal in last year's Penn State game.

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    giddyup, pardner [Upchurch]

      Hat. Chase Winovich borrowed Eric's. That is all.

      Time management what? I've seen many complaints online about Michigan's clock management at the end of the first half, none of which I get. Cincinnati starts their final drive of the half with 2:23 on the clock and ends up with third and six two plays later. They call timeout after running the playclock down to 1:03. Michigan could have saved 40 seconds there, but it's hardly egregious to let that run and see what happens on third down. You've still got a one minute drill in good position if you get a stop.

      Michigan does not get a stop. A few plays later Cincinnati has fourth and 11 on the Michigan 39 with about 20 seconds on the clock. Michigan calls timeout here to prevent UC from getting a free Hail Mary. ("Don't allow free Hail Marys" has stuck in my mind because of that Penn State game where Brady Hoke called the free Hail Mary timeout for Penn State because he thought he might get a shot at blocking a punt.) This is good clock management.

      Fickell then decides to go for it, which seems like a bad idea but doesn't have a ton of downside, and Michigan does the weird thing where McCray is in coverage on their back instead of Hudson. They miss a long field goal attempt at the end of the half.

      And... like, so? I'm prone to yell about how everyone should have a Madden 14 year old on the sideline and none of this moves the needle for me. Almost all of this is in the gray area where if someone is wrong it's not by much and isn't likely to impact the winner, or even the score. I'm baffled people are even talking about it.

      download (2)

      [Upchurch]

      Now with leash. Eric caught a slight tweak to Habaugh's gameday apparel: his playsheet is now lashed to him, so that when he hurls it in disgust it doesn't flit onto the field or end up in the cord guy's neck or whatever. Always thinking ahead to the next rage, that Harbaugh.

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      [Fuller]

      Woof, and woof, and woof. This game was littered with bad calls:

      • Michigan got hit with a dubious pass interference on Cincinnati's first touchdown drive, which okay Lavert Hill did get in some jersey yanking. But later in the game Tarik Black was yanked backwards when he tried to hitch up with no call. Your author's flashback to last year's Ohio State game was brief and fictionally murderous.
      • Grant Perry's diving catch was reviewed and still incorrectly called an incompletion, because 80 or 90% certainty isn't enough, I guess.
      • The aforementioned Gary targeting incident. Only the ejection was overturned; a bogus 15 yard roughing the passer call stood.
      • Cincinnati's successful passes were about 50% egregious pick plays. Their second touchdown was particularly bad.
      • A couple of near-tackles didn't get called holding. One was the Hudson sack so maybe that gets thrown if Hudson doesn't get through it.
      • Cincinnati got called for a terrible celebration penalty when one of their players drew a line under the "Cincinnati" on his chest.

      Every college football season has that moment when you remember "oh, right, these guys again." Michigan's came early against UF, and continued here.

        HERE

        Best and Worst:

        Best: The Defense, Again

        I feel like these columns always focus on the offense, and it's not intentional. I really, truly enjoy watching a great defensive effort; few things are more exciting as a fan than a pick-six or a defensive end depositing the soul of a QB about 20 rows into the stands. But while the offense had its ups and downs, its tense moments and discussion points, the defense did basically what its done the past 2 years; strangle an offense and grind it into a fine powder. As I noted above, the Bearcats had 3 legitimate scoring drives (the 2 TDs and the missed FG), and nothing else. And honestly, that first TD was a gift of a short field after a bad punt return. As for the other TD, I don't think it was an illegal offensive PI (as a corner you have to be careful about initiating and maintaining contact with a receiver when they've been using that against you earlier in the game), but the refs definitely allowed more physicality by the Bearcats on offense than you'd expect.

        Ecky Pting has a breakdown of win expectations based on fancy stats. Michigan's status before week two:

        image

        We'll see how much the Purdue and Indiana wins move the needle for them.

        AJDrain reviews some tape; you can take the Fan Satisfaction Index survey. Ace will grapple with EGD's look at Air Force later in the week.

        ELSEWHERE

        Baumgardner is all up in his mentions, and mine:

        It’s tough to pinpoint the exact moment when it happened.

        But somewhere between a near lost fumble at the goal line and two incompletions in the red zone, the portion of Michigan’s fan base who had been on the fence about Jim Harbaugh’s quarterback situation for more than eight months invaded my Twitter mentions.

        With full force and no time for reason, many of them had seen enough. Harbaugh’s not playing his best quarterback, they insisted. Brandon Peters, a redshirt with zero college snaps and third on the depth chart, has to be better than this, they wrote. Has to be.Wilton Speight’s just not going to cut it, they typed.

        Welcome to Week 2.

        Also he tackles the Speight issues:

        Peoples-Jones is open with plenty of space pretty quickly here. If those feet get set, as we saw earlier, and he puts the ball on his hands on time then the speedy freshman has a chance to catch the ball, cut up field and make something happen. But he waits a beat, then his feet get flat and everything goes haywire.

        His back leg is stiff. He’s not stepping into the throw. The ball comes out late and way too high and what had the makings of a nice play goes in the books as an incomplete pass.

        Sap's Decals gets literal:

        UNIFORM CHAMPION – I can’t tell you how cool it was to (once again) see the wolverine decals on the Michigan helmets! As I said last week, as long as Jim Harbaugh is the Michigan football coach, there will be helmet stickers on the Wolverine headgear. Now, from what I can tell, it does indeed appear that the blue outline has been removed and it also seems as though the stickers may be that much smaller in size. Probably a wise move, as making them smaller will allow for more to be placed on the Michigan helmets. I’ll see if I can track down one and provide a more detailed analysis later in the season.

        I also noticed that the warning label has been moved from the side of the helmet to the back and bottom of the helmet. Why do I call this out?  Well, this frees up more space on the helmet for at least one more helmet sticker, but more importantly, this allows for a more symmetrical placement of the stickers on each side of the helmet.

        HSR:

        Sports are not necessarily a form of art, but they inspire passion and evoke emotions in people.  This builds communities of fans and followers.  Nick Hornby explored this ground in a number of his early works, after all.  This game was a mediocre album, maybe one or two solid singles, but lacking the depth to make it a classic.  Let's hope next week is a return to form.

        Memories of first home games. People showed up.

        Maize and Blue Nation. Maize and Blue News. Maize and Brew caught the fun bit of the halftime show:

        As they filed back out afterward there were some kids lining the tunnel who punched every dinosaur in the head, to general hilarity.

        Zack Shaw; Harbaugh punt return explanations.

        Comments

        reshp1

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:35 PM ^

        I wonder if it's one of those things where Speight gets chewed out for the first fumble and told to keep both hands on it. Then on the fly sweep he's overthinking it and doing something he's not 100% used to and it caused a timing issue compared to how they repped it in practice. 

        gbdub

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^

        Some of the Speight criticism seems to forget that Tacopants matriculated many years ago and has infinite eligibility... Wilton is hardly the first otherwise usually solid Michigan QB that inexplicably sails a few throws a game.

        Though I think Speight might have a version of the gypsy curse, since his mistakes always seem maximally damaging.

        Ron Utah

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^

        The fixes are actually shockingly simple, which is both encouraging and discouraging.  It's encouraging because "hey, Wilton, just do these simple things."  It's discouraging because there is zero doubt he has heard that refrain hundreds of times and he is still not doing them.

        The throwing thing: It is extremely difficult to comment on a QBs throwing mechanics by watching the broadcast view at full speed.  After the Florida game, I was trying to pinpoint what Speight's issues were with over throws, and while I felt confident in my diagnosis, I was not certain.  Now I am.

        There is a great article, here, by Nick B. over at the Free Press (grrrr!).  Nick rightly points out Speight's issues with "loading" and "unloading," but doesn't really prescribe a solution or even pinpoint the problem.

        Here it is: the plant (front) foot.  Yes, all of the talk is about "throwing off the back foot" or not "pushing off his back leg."  But how can Speight fix these problems, and what causes them?  When a QB takes the snap and sets in the pocket, his shoulders are perpendicular to the line of scrimmage.  His toes are pointing, approximately, parallel to the LOS.  Yes, these positions adjust as he rotates to scan the field.  The problem is that, in order to get proper hip rotation, accuracy, and power on a throw, the QB must reorient his stance.

        Try this for me.  Imagine your're a QB with a football in your hands.  Stand as a QB would in the pocket--feet at about shoulder width with toes pointing toward the sideline, shoulders perpendicular to the LOS, head turned and scanning downfield.  Now, try to throw your imaginary ball using two different motions:

        1. Sidestep.  Step towards your target with your front foot (left foot if you're a right-handed thrower) but keep your toes  pointed to the sideline, or even angle them just a bit towards your target.  Follow-through with your arm and body as far as you comfortably can.
        2. Front step.  This time, step into that throw with your front foot so that your toes (on your front foot) are pointing parallel to the path the ball will travel.  Follow-through with your arm and body as far as you comfortably can.

        Did you notice the difference?  Tom Brady is a master of this.  So was Peyton Manning.  Tom terrific does not have the strongest arm.  He is not Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford.  His throws depend highly on his base, as do most QBs'.  When you step forward with your toes pointing parallel to your pass, it allows your hips to fully rotate and your body to complete the throwing motion.

        See how the front foot rotates and lands pointing toward the target?  Look at pictures of Brady as he's completing his motion, and you'll always see that front foot pointing parallel to the path of the ball, with his body rotated and throwing shoulder in front of non-throwing shoulder at release point.

        Speight is not doing this consistently.  He keeps the toes of his front foot angled in, which stunts his throwing motion and keeps his body from completing the proper progression for an accurate pass.  On the high throws, his hips are getting locked-up by his toes and preventing him from rotating to the proper position to fire his pass to the target.

        So why does he keep making this mistake?  There can be lots of reasons.  Pressure might cause him to skip the crucial mechanic of stepping into and rotating his front foot.  He may have some bad mechanical habits.  He could be afraid of injury (stepping into throws feels more vulnerable, even though it is not).  But I actually believe it's something else: he is translating decision to throw too quickly.  What I mean is that he's identifying the right pass and feeling rushed to get the ball out, so he's skipping this critical progression in his throwing motion.  While it doesn't actually save him time to not front step, he's letting his feet lock his body in a rush to make a pass.

        The solution is simple, but not necessarily easy.  He needs to rotate that front foot and let his body flow through the complete motion.  One way to help encourage his body to do this is to maintain "happy feet" (see Peyton Manning) in the pocket.  Active feet have an easier time changing positions.

        The bottom line is that if you see Speight's plant foot angled toward the sideline, he's probably throwing a poor pass.  If that front foot is pointed parallel to the path of his pass, he's probably throwing a strike to his target.

        While this is not a challenging fix from the standpoint of mechanics, it's up to Harbaugh et al. to break the bad habit and help Wilton throw properly on every pass.  There are very, very few guys with the arm talent to overcome mechanical deficiencies--Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford come to mind--and Speight is not one of them.  That said, when Speight's mechanics are right, he is an accurate passer with plenty of arm to hit all the throws.

        Here's another great shot of the front foot placement:

         

        Pepto Bismol

        September 11th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

        I can't believe nobody has thought to show Wilton Speight a still image of Tom Brady throwing from a squeaky clean pocket without a defender in sight and explain to him that his toes should point at the target. 

        Also, he should shuffle like Peyton Manning. Outstanding.

        Anything else while we're here? 

        Maybe he should learn to run like Steve Young?  Or develop a quick-twitch, cannon release like Dan Marino? 

         

        Now that we've fixed Speight with this "shockingly simple" advice, let's sit down Nolan Ulizio and explain to him that he just needs to block people like Jonathan Ogden. If you can find a supporting .jpg, we can wrap this up before rush hour.

         

         

        (Note to self: You reached your daily max of MGoBlog about 45 minutes ago)

        Ron Utah

        September 11th, 2017 at 6:22 PM ^

        Not sure what point you're trying to make.  As I stated in my post, I'm sure Wilton has received this coaching point.  I don't post to MGoBlog hoping that Jim Harbaugh will read my post and fix the team; I post so that fellow posters can learn from (or ignore) my point of view.  It's the same reason I read other peoples' posts.

        But let's unpack your points: first, Tom Brady uses good footwork even when the pocket isn't clean.  That's one of the reasons he's a GOAT.  I can't illustrate good footwork in a photo that is obscure by pass rushers, though.

        Peyton Manning kept his feet moving even though he had naturally slow feet.

        Neither one of these techniques is hard to execute.  What's hard is to create the habit of executing simple techniques regardless of the circumstances.  Both Brady and Manning have/had limited physical tools, yet they are both HOF QBs.  As I said, while the solutions are simple, that does not mean they're easy.

        I'm sure I could have been clearer, but my point was not that I had the magic solution to Speight's passing problems.  My point was that I had identified the problem (and I'm sure the coaching is well aware of it and has been for some time) and wanted to share the problem with the board, why it's a problem, and how to fix it.  Again, this information is not for Harbaugh or the staff, it's for the board.

        I appreciate you taking the time to comment on my post.

        Pepto Bismol

        September 12th, 2017 at 9:58 AM ^

        You say you've identified the problem.  I guess it's just obvious to me what the problem is.  Speight is not a fluid passer.  Call it coordination or whatever term you want.  He has a long, wonky delivery that breaks down when he can't lurch into his throws.  This is obvious to me and many more on this board, I'm sure. 

        When his guard is being pushed back into his lap and DEs are flying by Ulizio on the edge, you can't tell the guy "Hey, make sure your little toes are pointed at your target and try to rotate your hips."  No, under duress, you have to rely on pure physical ability which is not Speight's strength. 

        For instance, Matt Stafford of the Lions had a play Sunday where Arizona blitzed off the left side.  Stafford saw it coming and rolled right out of the pocket to buy another second and threw on the run.  It was behind the receiver, but complete.  He threw off the wrong foot, as any coordinated person would, and had the arm strength to get it there.  You can show Stafford still pics and textbook throwing motion until you're blue in the face, but on plays like that, or when D-Tackles are coming up the middle and he wings a 20 yard rope off his back foot, he reverts to pure ability and that's why he makes a bajillion dollars. 

        What you did in your first post is the equivalent of saying "See how Ricky Fowler hooked this drive on the 18th hole at The Masters?  What he needs to do is keep his left arm straight and blah, blah, blah..."  That's a nice 100-level explanation on how to hit a golf ball, but that's not the problem in that instance.  Fowler knows how to hit a golf ball.  Stress and fatigue are the issue.

        Speight knows how to throw a football.  Anybody with a Nerf knows how to throw a football -- that you should step toward your target.  Coordinated people will cock the ball at the ear and rotate through the throw with a pure overhand delivery.  If you put him on the practice field in gym shorts, Speight will give you a whole new batch of still images of (relatively) picture perfect football passes to impress the MGoBoard. 

        That's not his problem.  His problem is he doesn't have the pure, natural ability to consistently deliver an accurate ball when he doesn't have the time or space to set and throw.  In my eyes, you've identified nothing of substance and I found your post to be the overly-simplistic icing on the Shitty Speight Take sundae. 

        I apologize for the sarcastic attitude. 

        And for anybody who will undoubtedly take this post as an attack on Speight:

        I believe Speight is the best QB we have available and I believe he has the knowledge, poise, experience and enough talent to win this conference.  I also believe he's always going to wing a random ball that's going to be trouble because he just flat out is not the most talented thrower of an oblong pigskin.  We're going to have to hold our breath and take our chances with that.  His issues surely won't be fixed by giving him a pee-wee tutorial on how to throw a forward pass.

        Just like when Jim Harbaugh took Alex Smith fresh off of leading his team to a NFC Championship game and stapled him to the bench in favor of Kaepernick, when Brandon Peters or McCaffrey or anybody else surpasses #3 as the better option, a change will be made.

        In reply to by Pepto Bismol

        Ron Utah

        September 13th, 2017 at 7:06 PM ^

        In this case, you are just wrong, and any coach would agree with me.  Tom Brady doesn't have Stafford's tools.  Who is the better QB?  Peyton Manning had below-average NFL arm strength.  So did Joe Montana.  Being great in sports is much more about consistent technique than it is about talent.  Sure, you have to have the requisite physical ability to compete, but how else do you explain the impact of coaching?  A coach does not make a player more talented, a coach improves technique and decision-making.  Speight has plenty of physical ability to be an excellent QB.

        As for your specific points, again, you are incorrect.  First, Speight is missing some passes even when there is little or no pressure.  His misses do not always come under duress.  Look at the Grant Perry corner route that should have been a TD against Cincinnati.  Look at the overthrow to DPJ, or the high TD pass to Perry.  There's no one about to sack him.  He's just not throwing with good technique.

        Second, your example--Matthew Stafford--is one of the few people on the planet with the physical tools to do what he does.  Speight will never be that guy.  Neither will O'Korn, and probably not Peters either.  He's a freak.  If you're expecting Michigan to have QBs that have a Matthew Stafford arm, you're delusional.  Most QBs--even the great ones--have to rely on consistent technique to be successful.

        Third, success in sports, and as a QB, comes from being able to apply technique under duress.  Stress and fatigue--as you rightly point out--make it harder to use good technique.  Good players maintain their technique in bad situations.  Speight has the physcial ability to be a very good QB.  He needs to clean-up his technique.  Breaking bad habits is not easy, but the change is a simple one and he is capable of doing it.

        Opinions are fine.  You are welcome to yours.  In this case, you are incorrect.  Wilton's physical tools are not what is preventing his success, his technique is the problem, and it's fixable.  And the proof is readily available--Speight throws nice, accurate passes frequently.  He just fails to use technique consistently enough to be accurate consistently.  

        If, as you say, "pure, natural ability" was the key to being a good QB, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would never have been in the NFL, let alone the HOF, and Drew Henson would have been the best QB in Michigan history.

        ShadowStorm33

        September 11th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^

        You're theory that Speight is rushing the throw is interesting, but one thing that keeps getting mentioned is that Speight seems to be late on a number of his throws. There definitely seem to be times where guys are WIDE open and he takes so long to throw that the defender has nearly caught up by the time the pass gets there. I wonder if he's having trouble making his reads quickly and is rushing to try and compensate?

        YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

        September 11th, 2017 at 8:25 PM ^

        To add further on the throwing mechanics, my assessment is the HS collarbone injury (multiple breaks) caused damage that physically limits his "lift" and "extension" phases in the motion. Perhaps his body has recovered, but he hitches at the later stages of the lift and certainly in the extension. The hips stop turning and the shoulders pull down at release instead of pressing forward. It looks like a classic recoil position to protect the rotator cuff and the whole musculoskeletal of the shoulder from the maximum pressure point. Its surprising that 3 yrs of S&C training (not just lifts but biomechanical exercises) have not "cured" his release point and more hip rotation, but proper throwing mechanics are very difficult and especially hard to change if the mind has developed a hitch to protect the body.

        Rufus X

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^

        Speight is serviceable, kind of like Rudock was at the beginning of his season. Rudock reached his full potential by the end of the year and was very good, but not great.  Speight has not progressed in the same way.

        I just long for the days of having a QB that can put the ball right on someone, in traffic, on 3rd an 12 in double coverage, when the chips are down. I want this to happen so often that you take it for granted. The next Chad Henne.  I know this is a lot to ask, but of all the things we know and love about Harbaugh, being a QB whisperer is the most widely accepted.  I think that's why I and most others have been disappointed so far... we are just waiting for that 6' 6" howitzer cyborg prototype and we just haven't seen it yet.  

        I still am HOPING Speight will get there, but coming into this season I was ASSUMING he would.  

        jmblue

        September 11th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^

        I'm not suggesting that Speight is INT-prone (though he did throw five in the OSU/FSU/UF 3-game stretch).  Just that the comment about Henne throwing eight in a season isn't really fair.

         

        gbdub

        September 11th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^

        I didn't imply that it was bad. I was merely pointing out that the Henne we are all nostalgic for was not perfect. We think of Henne as "very good", but he was statistically similar to Speight. There may be some truth to "Speight doesn't make more errors, but he does make bigger ones", but a lot of the hot takes are pure feelingsball.

        stephenrjking

        September 11th, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^

        Henne had better weapons than Speight. His freshman year he was throwing to Braylon Edwards, the best receiver in the country, and Jason Avant. Our receivers and RBs are going to grow, but right now they're not those guys. And Henne's 2005 was actually pretty mediocre. On the other hand, Speight has better coaches.

        bronxblue

        September 11th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^

        And Henne had a pretty talented group of players around him, including the career leader in rushing and a #1 overall draft pick at LT, to say nothing of his receivers. People don't like Speight and that's fine, but this revisionist history BS has gotten really old.

        bronxblue

        September 11th, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^

        And Henne had a pretty talented group of players around him, including the career leader in rushing and a #1 overall draft pick at LT, to say nothing of his receivers. People don't like Speight and that's fine, but this revisionist history BS has gotten really old.

        gbdub

        September 12th, 2017 at 9:42 AM ^

        You explicitly said you wanted "the next Chad Henne". Chad Henne was a real quarterback who existed and has real history. I showed that Chad Henne was statistically not much better than Speight. Now you're just moving the goalposts.

        garde

        September 15th, 2017 at 7:28 AM ^

        Lets hope our next QB ISNT the next Chad Henne. I am always stunned when people rave about him. Yeah he had a great arm, but he was also prone to making mental mistakes in clutch moments. Outisde the Florida game, I was mostly disappoited in Henne's career at Michigan. (Don't even get me going about the Notre Dame game). We had trouble winning big games with him and we had a ton of talent on those teams.

        I dont want to really bash Henne, but I think people look at his career stats as opposed to how effective he really was in games . Would I take him over Speight..for sure. But people seem to rememeber him as some Michigan legend when in fact I'd say his career and teams underpeformed while Michigan's QB

        jerseyblue

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^

        I've wondered who's fault is was in the Speight/Cole exchange fumble on the goal line vs OSU last year. I don't remember seeing an answer for it and I never brought it up because I figured people would say "Why don't you move on?" After these first two games I don't think I have to wonder anymore. I think I got it.

        Zeke21

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^

        Had a damn good career at M.  Leave the Man alone.

        Unless it is to compliment his tolerance of the SAME M fan base

        that Boo ed the M team Saturday. That was pitiful.

        These are 18, 19. 20 year old men living the dream.  Help them live it. 

        AeonBlue

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^

        So I'm really only commenting about this because it's something that annoys me and shows a bit of a lack of self-awareness from our fearless leader. Before I go on, I'm going to caveat this by saying I am not in the torch and pitchforks camp in regards to Speight.

        There's something that a lot of scientists and science communicators are talking about right now called the backfire effect. Simply put, it's a phenominon that occurs when you challenge someone's closely held beliefs; even with facts. Instead of accepting new facts and adjusting their world-view accordingly, most people will double-down on what they previously held to be true (for many reasons such as sense of identity and others). 

        Since before week one, Brian has gone on the air several times and written several times more that anyone who asserts that Speight is not the starter or best option at starter or "just fine" is an idiot. [Note, this is my paraphrase based on implications, tenor, tone etc. when discussing the topic Not a direct quote]. Regardless if that's true or not, those that saw the last 4 games of the 2016 season and the spring game that had decided that that was not the case are more-likely to double-down on that belief because it has been challenged, and quite aggressively in my opinion.

        That's why every time Speight wings a ball to Tacopants twitter explodes with "SEE!!! SEEE!!!!" It's people seeking out their confirmation bias to prove the expert wrong. It's armchair QB-ing but with "hot takes" at a blogger. Bitching about your mentions every chance you get, be it on air or on the site, isn't going to make them go away, it's only going to make it worse. I'm not saying don't call a spade a spade, I'm just saying that doing in such an aggressive manner isn't going to get the results you want to see.

        Drbogue

        September 11th, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^

        Are you surprised? This site could be run by robots and I wouldn't care. Brian Cook is simply a guy who watches football and has a mic. Expert? Hardly. Never coached, never played, but he did read smartfootball.com and went to a PowerPoint presentation once. Point being, he has an opinion, and like everyone else he is entitled to it. He watches the games and makes a chart which apparently counts for something? Recording rainfall doesn't make me a weatherman. I don't need a chart to know that Speight has peaked and that the University pays Harbaugh a ton of money to make decisions. Enjoy the product on the field but try not to let a blogger get you up in arms. After all, if you don't like the message then read Maize and Brew - less focus on the author and more focus on the content.

        Rufus X

        September 12th, 2017 at 8:39 AM ^

        The disciples of Brian et al on this site crack me up every time. Disagree with his take on something or criticize the site management and you get a bunch of people yelling "THEN DON"T READ IT!!!" Even though Brian has been wrong on many many things over the years, they will never admit it.

        The only thin funnier is reading the posts on this thread from the experts in quarterback mechanics diagnosing the minutia of Speight's throwing motion.  Hilarious.  I'm sure Drev and Harbaugh are combing the internets for advice from Uncle Rico in his basement breaking down film.

        AeonBlue

        September 12th, 2017 at 9:32 AM ^

        I come here because I enjoy Brian's style of writing and the level of analysis here, compared to anywhere else I've gone, is of much higher quality. I would argue that this can't be done by just anyone, otherwise there would be millions of such sites that share the success this one has had over the years. 

        I think you're fair when you say he's not expert; I guess that's why I'm speaking out this way. I see stuff like Brian's twitter war with that high school coach and I just cringe because I base part of my identity on my fandom and a piece of that relates directly to this site. I helped Brian with the Dave Brandon emails, I've donated time and money to the site, I have skin in the game. When I see that level of arrogance and disregard for dissonance I'm a bit embarassed.

        That said, I'm certainly not up in arms. It's not like I'm calling for a revolution or anything. I just wanted to vent to the board and hope maybe Brian, Seth, or Ace might see it and take a moment to be introspective. 

        Steves_Wolverines

        September 11th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^

        My biggest complaint about the Anti-Speight crowd, is how the heck do you have so much confidence in Peters, when he's never taken a college snap before? 

        The people who make these decisions see Speight and Peters every day, and they've determined Speight is the starting QB. Period.

        Would it be great if we're winning 45-0 at halftime vs Air Force, so Peters can get some experience in mop-up duty? Of course that would be great. But I just can't see how replacing Speight with a Qb that has no experience can be a better option at this point.

        Rabbit21

        September 11th, 2017 at 4:36 PM ^

        It's a lot like the people calling for Morris to start in the aftermath of him not being completely awful in the bowl game over Devin Gardner, we all saw how that went and I remain mystified as to why no-one is able to learn their lessons.  With Speight, there are problems, but you know what you're getting and there are some good things there.  He's opbviously beaten out Peters for a reason, maybe we should wait and see what Peters does in a live game situation first.

        Steves_Wolverines

        September 11th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^

        It's also a reflection on how many HS Qb's are out there in college now that would fit into the system that Harbaugh is currently running?

        I think we'd all agree that the following QB's would look really good with Harbaugh this season:

        Rosen
        Darnold
        Mayfield
        Browning?
        Mason Rudolph from Okla St? More of a system QB, but he's a slinger
        Luke Falk at Wash St?

        Obviously players like Lamar Jackson, Francois, Jalen Hurts, JT Barrett, McSorley, and Quinton Flowers (USF) are talented, but how well would they fit into Harbaugh's pro style system? 

        So arguably, Speight is likely within the Top 10 of college QB's that would be the perfect QB for Harbaugh to win this season. Someone like Jake Fromm/Jacob Eason from Georgia might be really good in a year or two, but the same can be said for Peters/McCaffrey.

         

        Mannix

        September 11th, 2017 at 6:23 PM ^

        I'm not clamoring for Peters. I'm just amazed Speight is the very best option at this point. I know who the coaches see and coach every day. The simple fact Speight is still in charge of the offense is disconcerting.

        I don't see him beating the good teams and I hope he and Michigan do beat the good teams...all of them.