Moving the (Stati)Sticks: Week Five Comment Count

Adam Schnepp

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[Barron/MGoBlog]

Jim Harbaugh talked about the nature of life in his Monday press conference. I’m paraphrasing his paraphrasing, but he referenced a speech from Rocky IV or V about how life hits back and we have to absorb that and keep moving forward. The thing about sports is that they hit and we can’t hit back. We can’t alter events with more resolve or newly-acquired knowledge or literal brawn because we have nothing to do with the outcome. We let these teams get in and they infect our souls, and that irrationally intimate connection creates a baseline nervousness for me.

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. I’ve developed a skepticism over the years that probably borders on overskepticism, but what can you expect from someone who’s been a Lions fan for as long as they can remember and has obsessively tracked the last eight seasons of Michigan football? One of the reasons I initially took an interest in stats is that they provide a tenuous buffer against the emotional blows sports land…to a point. While I anxiously await each week’s S&P and FEI update and we collectively giggle as we sift through line after line of defensive statistics, opposing fanbases can attest that sometimes the impact of the numbers can be just as grisly as the hits we take. Take a look at the picture above. They were again this week.

[Stats after THE JUMP]

The Mathlete’s Four Factors:

Once again, a quick reminder of what the factors mean:

Conversion rate = [1st Downs gained]/[1st Down plays (including first play of drive)]. A three and out is 0/1. A one play touchdown is 1/1. Two first downs and then a stop is 2/3, etc.

Bonus Yards = [Yards gained beyond the first down line]/[Total plays from scrimmage]

This is an adjustment to how I have previously calculated, to account for the plays a team runs.

Field Position = The expected point difference per game for where a team’s offense starts and where a team’s defense starts. Each drive is given an expected value based on the start of scrimmage, all of the drives for the offense and defense are totaled and compared. This accounts for all elements of field position: turnovers, special teams, drive penetration etc.

Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)

Offense:

  Field Pos. Conv. Rate Bonus YPP Red Zone
Week 1 21.0 73 1.52 5.7
Rank 60 30 59 27
Week 2 25.0 68 1.63 5.8
Rank 77 70 95 30
Week 3 25.3 70 2.56 5.8
Rank (B1G Rk) 84 (12) 54 (6) 43 (6) 30 (5)
Week 4 24.5 72 2.92 5.8
Rank (B1G Rk) 91 (14) 30 (4) 31 (3) 27 (4)
Week 5 26.9 67 2.78 5.8
Rank (B1G Rk) 59 (10) 54 (3) 39 (3) 20 (2)

Defense:

  Field Pos. Conv. Rate Bonus YPP Red Zone
Week 1 27.9 73 1.64 5.7
Rank 47 44 20 30
Week 2 25.1 67 1.60 6.1
Rank 51 58 23 88
Week 3 24.0 63 1.28 6.1
Rank (B1G Rk) 35 (4) 38 (6) 9 (3) 100 (13)
Week 4 23.1 59 1.23 6.1
Rank (B1G Rk) 29 (5) 17 (4) 4 (1) 110 (13)
Week 5 24.5 55 1.10 6.1
Rank (B1G Rk) 32 (4) 7 (2) 1 (1) 115 (13)


This week’s offensive Four Factors seem to buttress what the eye test told us; Michigan’s offense wasn’t bad, but they weren’t fantastic either. It was a day where a few big plays made the difference, and an up-and-down performance is reflected in the Factors. The ups and downs were more of a Disney coaster than a roller coaster, but it was a less than ideal day against a mediocre defense.

As for the defense, let’s just take a minute to admire the Bonus YPP column and its slow descent into excellence. The defense has been so good at limiting big plays that I can tell my expectations have shifted; I found myself doing the ol’ hand clap+mumbled swear word combo when Maryland picked up a first down at the beginning of the game on a slant. Also, look at that Conversion Rate. Yet another defensive statistic that keeps falling week after week.

Your weekly reminder about the defensive Red Zone stat: It’s hard for that to go down when teams just have not been getting there the last few games. You can see that they stopped making trips to the red zone after week 2; opponents have only gotten inside the 20 six times this season, scoring two rushing touchdowns, two passing touchdowns, and kicking one field goal. Only Duke (?) has allowed fewer red zone trips thus far.

Advanced Box Score:

This defense is starting to starting to remind me of how I felt about Madden or EA’s NCAA series in the early 2000s in that there aren’t significant changes each time it comes out, but I’m still really excited about it. This year the shading is better. Buy buy buy!

Maryland had a relatively sizeable 16 drives and with those managed to run 63 plays for 1.67 yards per play. Let’s take that yards per play value very literally and think about how long it would take to get a first down if you’re moving the ball at exactly that rate: six plays. You do not get six plays to get a first down, ergo your head coach ends up tweeting motivational Wiz Khalifa quotes.

Maryland did manage to get inside the 40 and therefore chart once in the Scoring Opps. column, but they walked away with zero points, and that’s after starting with a pretty favorable average field position of 29.7. It comes as no surprise, then, that their success rate was 0.13.

Five Factors:

The offense is ranked 53rd in S&P+ and really doesn’t vary that much in most of the more specific statistics. It’s an offense that’s probably best described the way we described Jake Rudock before he got here: serviceable with a bit of upside.

There are only two things that really stand out to me in the most updated version of Bill Connelly’s team statistical profile, one good and one bad. You’d expect a Harbaugh team to be good at running the ball and this year’s team already is, ranking in the thirties in Rushing S&P+, Rushing Success Rate, and Rushing IsoPPP (they’re ranked 30th, 36th, and 35th, respectively). That hasn’t necessarily translated to points, though, as Michigan is ranked 85th in Pts. Per Trip Inside 40 with 4.48 points per. That’s slipping far enough below the national average of 4.60 that’s it worth keeping an eye on but not worrying about, especially considering the potency of Michigan’s defense.

The defense hasn’t had much trouble limiting points per trip inside the 40 (they give up an average of 2.92, which ranks sixth nationally), but that isn’t terribly surprising when you look at how good they are both against the run and pass. They’re fifth in Rushing S&P+, seventh in Rushing Success Rate, and 19th in Rushing IsoPPP. They’re even better against the pass, ranking second in Passing S&P+, 13th in Passing Success Rate, and third in Passing IsoPPP.

Michigan’s stats outside of the aforementioned are very similar to what they were before the Maryland game. Even so, if the game against Northwestern is close and you’re looking for some hope to cling to it could come from a few different and very specific sources. Offensively, Michigan has a terrible, 105th ranked 1st Down S&P+, but with 2nd Down and 3rd Down S&P+ ranked 32nd and 33rd, respectively, they’ve been able to make up any lost ground. The defense seems to have trouble with second down, as their 2nd Down S&P+ is ranked 19th. Then again, that’s very much relative considering their 1st Down S&P+ is fourth and they’re first in the nation (!) in 3rd Down S&P+.

The Other Guys:

Opponent Off. S&P+ Def. S&P+ Overall S&P+
@ Utah 31 (+12) 30 (+6) 19 (+10)
Oregon State 83 (+9) 46 (+4) 65 (+9)
UNLV 98 (+13) 64 (+16) 84 (+13)
BYU 46 (+10) 29 (+10) 33 (+9)
@Maryland 104 (-31) 60 (+8) 83 (-13)
Northwestern 100 (+5) 6 (+4) 29 (+9)
Michigan State 33 (-14) 40 (-14) 34 (-19)
@ Minnesota 81 (-14) 7 (+4) 24 (-4)
Rutgers 91 (-5) 111 (-6) 110 (-8)
@ Indiana 17 (+8) 96 (+5) 55 (+14)
@ Penn State 57 (+9) 16 (-3) 20 (+2)
Ohio State 52 (-19) 20 (-14) 25 (-18)
Michigan 53 (-5) 3 (+1) 3 (+7)

I’ve tried to give the table even more context this week by adding Michigan to the bottom and numbers in parentheses that indicate weekly change in rankings. A quick read through shows that Michigan State’s lackluster performance really hurt their advanced stats, Northwestern’s defense helped push Minnesota’s offense down 14 spots in a week, and Michigan’s thrashing of Maryland dropped their offense 31 spots in the rankings. The trend we’re starting to see is Michigan’s defense delivering a one-week shove down the rankings for opposing offenses before teams play defenses that aren’t ranked third overall in the nation and rebound.

What about tomorrow?

You should really go check out alum96’s Northwestern by the Numbers post, as he does some great and really valuable work. My main takeaway from it is that Michigan is going to put one of the best passing defenses in the nation out against a passing offense that just isn’t good at all, and while Northwestern can run the ball they won’t be able to continue allowing almost seven tackles for loss per game while maintaining efficiency.

You can also take a look at the matchup simulator I mentioned last week. The stats coincidentally fit the narrative, as their numbers show a Michigan defense that’s much better than Northwestern’s offense and a Northwestern defense that’s better than Michigan’s offense. At least we can be confident that any #M00N reprisal will be because of incredibly competent defenses and not incredibly incompetent everything.

Comments

dragonchild

October 9th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^

Maryland did manage to get inside the 40 and therefore chart once in the Scoring Opps. column, but they walked away with zero points, and that’s after starting with a pretty favorable average field position of 29.7. It comes as no surprise, then, that their success rate was 0.13.

How does one get a non-zero success rate after having literally zero success?

Adam Schnepp

October 9th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

Good question. In the Bill Connelly lexicon success rate is basically a measure of how often you were in a good down-and-distance situation.

For a play to be a success you have to get 50% of necessary yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down. Maryland, uh...struggled with that.

Njia

October 9th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^

I'd love it if someone would look at yesterday's USC vs UW game. If they predicted a victory by USC going away, then we probably need to take any advanced (stati)sticks in the proper context.

All of this reminds me of the old adage about planning in warfare: "Always remember that the enemy gets a vote."

EDIT: I checked ... S+P projected the USC-UW winner to be USC by a margin of 19.8 pts and a win probability of 87.4%. Maybe they're an outlier, but wow.

Tyrone Biggums

October 9th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

I watched this game and USC just had an all around terrible performance by the coaches and players. 3 turnovers, several dropped passes, missed field goals. Inexplicably, the coaches kept going away from the running game when Kessler was having a horrible night and the two top USC backs were averaging over 5 a carry. It kinda seemed like they were being coached by Hoke. For Sark, it was a stop drinking and go to bed night.

bringthewood

October 9th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^

Gave up on the Lions years ago and stopped following them altogether. It has freed up my Sundays and now I only have the Wolverines to worry about. My son also no longer follows the Lions. I wonder how many fandoms the Matt Millen era has killed.

I grew up in Ann Arbor and followed the Lions through my 40's but just could not longer accept the incompetence. Not a piece of Lions gear in my house and much happier now that I have stopped caring about them. You will find it will improve your life.

lbpeley

October 9th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^

I watched the GB/49ers game last week because I have A-A-Ron Rodgers on my fantasy team. I always hated GB just because. Now, I enjoyed watching them play. You can just see that they are a competently coached team with smart players. A far cry from the monkey rodeo clusterfuck that is the Lions every year (except a couple in the early 90's) since the 60's.

I wouldn't say I'm now GB fan but I prefer them over the Lions. 

UESWolverine

October 9th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^

Man - I completely understand and it did improve my life! I grew up in the Livonia area and was an instant sports fan as far back as I can remember - starting with the early 80s, I loved every Detroit sports team. Harbaugh, was my first sports hero, my dad took me to see the '84 Tigers in the World series - I think I listened to every single game that year - although I'm sure I fell asleep numerous times trying to stay awake for those West Coast games. The Pistons were just starting to get good, and Billy Sims was my favorite Lion. As the years went on, I could never understand the apathy from the Lions fans on sports radio after every game. I figured they were our team, and it didn't make sense to give up on them - ever. Fast forward to about 10 years ago. I just couldn't take it anymore. I did exactly what you did and stopped following them. I don't even watch NFL games anymore. I don't live in Michigan now, so I guess it's easier for me to ignore them, but I have my Sundays completely free and have the best time with my wife. I didn't even realize the Lions were playing last Monday night until I saw some facebook posts from my friends after the game - I was actually watching the Michigan/Maryland replay - LOL. Had no idea they were on. I sometimes feel a little guilty about this, but overall I think I lead a much more happy life than my die hard Lions friends.

schreibee

October 9th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^

I'm a generation older, as my earliest sports memory (aside from vague images and impressions of being at Michigan Stadium with my Grandparents as a young child) is the Tigers '68 Championship. The teacher actually stopped class (I was in 2nd grade) and wheeled out the big ol' black & white TV on the AV cart and we watched the Series until the dismissal bell rang... only time in my life I didn't want it to ring! :)

I moved to the Bay Area after college, and dumped the Lions for the 49ers long ago - the Montana, Clark, Rice, Lott teams were a bandwagon you just did not let roll by without climbing on. Everything you ever wanted a sports team to be - smart, talented, charismatic, successful. Now I've dumped them due to their treatment of a certain Michigan alum, and the only reason to look at the NFL at all is for my fantasy team and the pool I'm in. Exactly what Red Zone was created for!

But when you look back at what Bill Walsh accomplished (or Belichick for a more current example) or see what JH did for SF and now at UM, it really is as simple as just find that RIGHT GUY to run your team. Why the Lions can't ever seem to do it - regime after regime, generation after generation, is one of life's great mysteries!

Are they the only team in existence for the entirety of the Super Bowl era who's never gone to one? Can't think of any other...

And one thing you've already learned Hodak is once you relocate it's so much easier to stop following the Detroit teams - I can no longer name a single Piston (since they didn't draft Trey)or Red Wing (Datsuyk I guess).

 

GoBlueSean

October 9th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

I started to give up on the Lions in the late 1990's when Barry was handled the way he was.  I moved to Charlotte in 2001 and fell in love with the Panthers.  We actually have a QB!! I feel spoiled having a team that actually has a Pro Bowl quarterback.  But my life has also been better since ditching the Lions.  Not because they are not winning but how the organizaion is run and how they make decisions.  Enough about the NFL.  GO BLUE tomorrow!!! I think we give Ty Isaac another chance with starting RB role and sub in Drake... So Pumped

AZBlue

October 9th, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^

As with anything statistics are not infallible. The Michigan side of the M-NW Q and A that was linked on the board used a lot of advanced stats. In the comments from NW fans it was noted that the particular stats quoted were 53% accurate at predicting games this year - against the spread - and the fact that M was shown as the likely "winner" even at the 8point spread did not bode well for NW.

Games are still won and lost on the field. Statistics get more accurate with more data/games, but the numbers really like Michigan in this one. Between the numbers and "Harbaugh" we are very likely to be a happy group on Saturday evening.

alum96

October 9th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^

I am big on advanced stats but have never used them in the way I am seeing lately on the board with "probability of win" and margin of victory.  Don't find that particulary useful.  (same with the "combined S&P+" which has multiple 2 win teams in the top 20)

I use them to see what a team is good, average, or bad at by unit.  And them compare to what the other team is good, average, or bad at by unit.

So what I see in the NW-UM game is 2 similar teams based on top end defenses and good special teams with struggling passing games.  One better at turnover margin and holding down penalties and rushing offense and special teams (NW).  One team with a supposed savvy veteran QB and another with a wide eyed RS FR.

So that's all I really know.  I don't know which team is going to have a stupid turnover deep in their zone giving a short field to the other team nor do these statistics.   And I dont think these models will help you either.  If so they'd destroy Vegas overnight.

julesh

October 9th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^

I imagine Michigan's points per trip inside the 40 is negatively impacted by Harbaugh liking to go for it on fourth down on that side of the field, particularly when up by a whole lot.

BrownJuggernaut

October 9th, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^

A quick Google search yielded nothing and I wonder how hard this would be to track, but I wonder how Michigan's defense ranks nationally in terms of yards after catch. It seems like receivers are always tackled as soon as they make the catch, limiting YAC.

Yo_Blue

October 9th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^

So, given the metrics, tomorrow will be like playing Maryland's offense with a much better defense.  ...or BYU overall.  With either comparison, I like our odds in this one.

bhb7209

October 10th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^

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