The Mountain Will Come To Michigan
Published reaction to the Day of Slight Reckoning has mostly fallen into two camps. One focuses on how the prideful block M has been brought low; addressing that is left for another post. The second shrugs at the end result, adds it to the ever-growing pile to strikes against Rodriguez, and quickly segues into a discussion of Rodriguez's presence on the proverbial hot seat, which is deemed hot indeed. Unlike last year, when a smattering of dips said Rodriguez was in danger of losing his job, there's no denying the reality of it: there are 2010 football seasons that end with Rodriguez getting run out of town on a rail.
How many are there? It will come as no surprise to anyone who's read this blog for a long time that I believe there are (and should be) considerably fewer than the popular conception does. Heck, I (and Dave from Maize 'n' Brew) just managed to convince Doug Gillett of this. For the last year and a half this space has been advocating radical patience.
For an example what seems to be the conventional wisdom, Bruce Feldman has a piece($) in which he repeatedly asks for much more than I think is reasonable for RR to deliver next year:
This is still Michigan, growing pains or not. This isn't a normal rebuilding job. Going 8-4 may not even be a strong enough sign that Michigan is rocketing back to the top and all of this tumult in the previous two years were worth it. …
Again, 8-4 might not be enough. Michigan needs to go back to winning like Michigan used to. Now.
Similarly, Dan Wetzel declares that setting the bar at a return to a bowl game is "incredibly low."
I had a twitter conversation with Feldman about this assertion a couple days ago. During that one of the tweets hit my main account—forgot the "d"—and thus the Facebooks, where it drew a chorus of raspberries because I asserted that going from 5-7 to 7-5 whilst replacing Baby Seal U with UConn would be "significant" progress. (It's since been pointed out that Michigan is playing a I-AA team next year so they're replacing with Eastern Michigan with UConn, but it's not like there's much difference between EMU and a horrible HBCU except when it comes to the entertainment provided by the marching band.) Patience is running low.
I know it's my role as the crazy fan blogger to demand the head of the coach when he fails to live up to my crazy expectations, but if we're seriously talking about an 8-4 regular season "not being enough" for Rodriguez to get a year four Michigan should have just fired him already. If this ends up being an 8-4 team the Mathlete's luck chart will have Michigan considerably on the happy side of the ledger.
Consider:- Aforementioned schedule upgrade.
- In games against non-baby-seals last year, Michigan was outgained 410-353 on average. They did not outgain any BCS opponent other than Purdue.
- The two-deep at safety, which covers three spots, has two walk-ons and zero upperclassmen. The corner depth is horrifying, as well.
- The quarterback depth chart also features zero upperclassmen.
- The scholarship breakdown looks like so: 11 seniors, 13 juniors, 20 sophomores, and 39 freshmen. The defense as a whole remains extremely young relative to competition:
The 2009 and 2010 classes make up about half of each unit for our rivals; for us it's about 75 percent..
- Only four seniors project as starters.
"This is still Michigan" is demonstrably false. Even in year three this remains a desperately young team with major holes in the secondary and no upperclass quarterbacks. Rodriguez's responsibility for the state of the state of the roster is limited to the absence of Terrelle Pryor, or any marginally acceptable option at quarterback from his first two months on the job, and a couple of would-be-sophomores Rodriguez did not add to the end of his first full recruiting class. You can wave your hands and say "Michigan! Rabble rabble rabble!" all you want but if you dressed these guys up like Generic State University people would expect them to go .500.
Progress is mandatory, but firing a guy because he's not healing lepers is unwise. This is a team that deserved to go 3-9 in 2008 and had four non-freshman defensive backs on the roster last year. Rebuilding from that is not a short-term operation. We've been through why this happened many times before; suffice it to say Rodriguez's margin of error to prevent a wholesale cratering was infinitesimal.
Later in Feldman's piece he says Rodriguez is an "excellent coach" and "proven winner" who "knows how to develop talent and motivate players." If this is the case—and everything in his coaching tenure before Michigan suggests so—why shouldn't Michigan give him the benefit of the doubt? They are not going to hire a coach with two BCS wins to his name next offseason. Patience is warranted. One year now (to be clear: 2011) has the potential to pay off with a 20-year stretch of success. While recruiting has suffered Michigan's classes are well within the range where Michigan can expect to compete for Big Ten championships when it is not operating with literally half the upperclassmen of its primary rivals.
My personal measuring stick for Rodriguez: yardage parity and a winning record. I would be displeased with 7-6 but willing to grit my teeth and give Rodriguez a shot in 2011, when he will return both specialists, every starter on offense save Steve Schilling and all but three starters on defense. That will seem exceptionally kind to many, I know, but literally no coach in the country could take the leftovers after Mallett's transfer and do anything other than flail as Rodriguez has.
2008 was a complete waste. To me, this is year two for Rodriguez, and 2011 is when I expect rubber to meet road.
And you don't have to look far to see peoples point that 4 years is too much time, or 4 years is not enough. Look at coaches that have been around for 4 + years that were hired to "take the school to the mountaintop", I will get negged for this I am quite sure, but for the record I want RR there in 2011, but another part of me does not want another Ron Zook/Illinois type situation in 2 or 3 years. And if you don't see us being ALOT more competeive in the Big 10 this year, I think that situation is inevetable.
But, Coach Rod can coach. Zook is a tool who has made his name as a great recruiter. Now that is a program I wouldn't want to be a fan of this year.
Sweet Jesus:
The two-deep at safety, which covers three spots, has two walk-ons and zero upperclassmen. The corner depth is horrifying, as well.
More comforting:
[I]n 2011, when he will return both specialists, every starter on offense save Steve Schilling and all but three starters on defense.
It's gonna be another roller coaster year of emotions.
EDIT: There has to be a better editor than this
As per your request regarding attendance, I will not be in class this evening due to a wedding that I need to leave for this afternoon in Delaware. I look forward working with you in class the rest of the term. Have a great holiday weekend.All Best,Bryan Suliman
Part of returning to dominance is being able to beat your little brother. Lately, we've been like a boxer unable to beat his sparring partner. Before we can take out Iron Mike, we better be able to beat Glass Joe. I can handle 7-5 as long as we beat State and their model coach, saintly players and pristine athletic department.
Living in a world in which Michigan loses regularly to MSU is depressing.
two in a row does not "regularly" make.
but two is too much for me.
3 in a row...GULP...would be.
Guys, calm down. We are not going to lose to Sparty again this year. Instate recruits won't cut it.
You know, like everybody else, I was optimistic entering the 2008 season and was also disappointed at the time with only 3 wins. But in retrospect, considering we didn't have a qb or offensive line, I'm actually quite impressed that the team managed to win three games.
Can the season just start already?
What a lot of RR haters don't realize is that if you fire Rodriguez, who are you going to hire that will translate into immediate success?
Jim Harbaugh is meh IMO and is going to have to rebuild to shape the team in his image.
Les Miles may be a smoother transition than Harbaugh, but he has too many other issues anyway, including a rebuild.
With those two being the names most thrown around, if you decide to stick with the spread, who do you hire?
Hiring Butch Jones would be weird considering he was RR's offensive coordinator.
Would Chip Kelly leave Oregon for Michigan and would M even want him considering the discipline issues?
I could obviously keep going, but from my point of view the best chance for success in an era of immediate demands and unreasonable expectations is to let Rodriguez keep his job as long as the team progresses from year to year unless a big time coach begs them for a job and the progress is minimal.
This one's easy.
Mike DeBord.
I think RR has to PROVE that he is a bad coach before he should be let go. Teams can have good or bad records independent of the coach. Look at Bill Belichick, he was pretty bad with the Cleveland Browns.
Getting rid of RR after this year is crazy. I have said it before, I will say it again: If we get rid of RR now we will Notre Dame ourselves. And I think that is amazingly stupid.
I can't help but think back to how many people were calling for Carr's head after the 1997 Outback Bowl loss to Alabama. I'm not about to go reseraching all the newspapers of the day, but I had many friends who said, "We should get a big-time coach. We should get Steve Spurrier." Michigan stuck by Carr. How'd that turn out?
Brian's post can be summed up in one word.
Honestly, I have had enough of the THIS IS MICHIGAN crowd. I think I made my thoughts on them and that meme in my diary that day after the Illinois game: Go find somebody else to cheer for and something else to do in the fall. When the ship is turned around, we'll let you know and you can come back.
Getting to the point at hand, I cant see any situation that doesnt involve outlandish outside factors where Rich gets canned with an 8-4 record. Frankly, I think any bowl appearance keeps his job, unless its a 6-6,7-5 final record that comes after an ugly losing streak that looks similar to last year.
He is stocking the program back up. He didnt forget how to coach. I'd like to see him play with an experience QB before even begin thinking about getting rid of him.
I know that reporters have a job to do and that leads to the media overblowing every single story written. i.e. RR Future
If we could duplicate 100's of Brian's and put them in the main stream media, we might have respectable sports journalism again.
Once again Brian thank you for being the voice of reason and the voice of the official "Michigan Nation."
Keep up the great work as always.
Another thing to remember is that while Stanford beat SC in '07, they also lost to ND. It took a really, really special team to lose to ND in '07. They were improved from 1-11 the previous year, but they were far from a good team in spite of the win against SC. Probably better than '08 Michigan, but not by a lot.
Also, besides Pritchard they had a redshirt senior QB in Ostrander who was a returning starter and had been a four star to rivals (he didn't play in the USC game only because of illness). Not sure what their situation at other positions was.
Stanford didn't beat SC because of Harbaugh either. Carroll lost that game by playing Booty with a broken finger (he would miss the next 3 weeks) and refusing to run out the clock. Booty threw 4 second half picks (one returned for a score and one that gave Stanford the ball with 3 minutes left in SC territory to set up the winning score).
I think Harbaugh is a good coach and his team hung tough against a superior opponent, but they won that game because Carroll/SC crapped the bed.
with 1 of those coming against MSU. Anything less to me would be disappointing even though I understand all the reasons why that might not be realistic.
I cannot fathom how 8-4 does not get RR back for 2011. That would be an improvement of 3 wins from last year, as well as a spot in a decent (and, depending on how many of those wins are in conference) bowl. After the past two years, 8-4 would be a huge success.
Would that win over the fanbase? I think that there is a faction of the fanbase that would not be won over even if RR went 11-1 and took us to a Rose Bowl. There is also a faction that, if RR went 1-11, would still want him back (although that faction has probably diminished). For the majority of fans that fall somewhere in the middle, I think that 8-4 with our somewhat difficult schedule would be more than enough to prevent any calls for RR's head.
I also think that while the record is the most important factor, how we get to that record will be important. If we lose games down the stretch, do not look competitive or start out hot and then fall apart against B10 competition, this will influence how our record is perceived. Also, even if his record is 7-5, if one of those 7 is a win against OSU, then that would go a long way with the fans . . .
Just how close we were in the MSU, Iowa, and Purdue games. Flip those scores around and RRod has an 8-4 team and is the toast of the town. Since we return nearly everybody, we should be able to go 7-5
The way the Notre Dame and Indiana games went, we could also have gone 3-9 without too much trouble.
exactly. But all in all, a couple close wins and three close losses puts us right about where we should have been.
While seven wins next year wouldn't exactly make me ecstatic, I think it would be sufficient to set the table for a very successful 2011 aka one where we have more than 4 senior starters.
Go Blue
Without a massive Tate breakdown in the fourth, you sir are forgetting how close that OSU game was.
"...2011, when he will return both specialists, every starter on offense save Steve Schilling and all but three starters on defense."
Also: Actual experience and depth at the QB position including a JR starter (no matter whether it's Tate or Denard), a real, viable amount of upperclassmen, and an incredibly favorable (at least looking at it on 5-27-10) schedule - ND and OSU at home, PSU off the schedule, and WMU, EMU, and SDSU as the 3 other non-con games.
2011 is an indicator. 2012 is the true test. and if people don't stop stabbing the poor man in the ass all the time he might just bail on his own--and then where would we be? do you really think harballs is going to come in and saban the joint?
take a pill everybody. i agree with the brain cook.
That's funny right there. I don't care who you are.
Where you get that caricature of Pitt's S&C Coach?
Particularly around 7-5. Because any of us can find situations where 7-5 looks good (2 of the 7 MSU, OSU?), or not so good (don't beat anyone of matter, lose all the big games by 40 points uncompetitively). It differs slightly at 8-4, because it almost assures you had to beat SOMEBODY. So the whole notion that 8-4 isn't enough, and we should be winning 10 games this year is ridiculous. But likewise, I find the notion that we have a great coach (which I believe his track record has shown, and the majority around here believe) can't, you know, overachieve once in 3 years...well, if you believe that, I question your belief in him as a great coach. Because while all the charts and data shown give credence to the fact that we're not at OSU, PSU level, it never said we're not at least at (or above) Illinois or Purdue level. It's losing to THOSE teams (and 1-7 Big Ten records) that's making us look bad.
As has been said, many times, flip those two around, we're a 7 win team. Add in a victory vs. MSU this year, it's not that hard to get to 8. Does a loss come out of the U-Conn/ND section where it wasn't expected before? I hope not in that it's U-Conn at home, and ND in the first year under a new coach (it'd be kinda cool NOT to legitimize their new coach for a change), but if it were to occur, it's not a lot to expect we get coached up to upset a team we "Shouldn't", like an Iowa, who we almost beat at their place last time, or a Wisconsin. Or, under the right stars, OSU.
I'm all for the people who say let the season run it's course before firing him. But let's make sure we don't look horrid this year before we extend the contract too.
i completely agree about the silliness of setting a magic number for wins. i could dream up a scenario under which even rodriguez's harshest critic would want him back after a 5-7 season (think terrible injuries, a top-3 recruiting class, big wins against OSU & MSU, bad luck, etc.) and a scenario under with his staunchest defender would want him out after a 13-0 season (think major, major violations). it's a dumb game to play no matter where you set the bar.
I'm happy if we get 7 or 8 wins. I just really want us to go to a bowl game because bowl season has sucked the last two years. I think that we should start to get yardage parity this year because now Rich Rodriquez has a quarterback that has been in the system for two years. We were awfully close to winning 3 other games last year as well so I feel very confident we will at least get 7 maybe even 8 wins this year.
"2008 was a complete waste. To me, this is year two for Rodriguez, and 2011 is when I expect rubber to meet road." - You have taken the words that I've have been speaking for the past two years out of my mouth. If anybody didn't look at 2008 as a complete write off just has no clue about football. They're are just Michigan fans. They are not fans of, nor are they knowledgable about the sport. This guy has had the painful transitions EVERYWHERE he's been but, he has also been very successful immediately afterwards. Let's take a look at what happened with year "one". Got off to a hot 4-0 start, then we have injuries to Tate, Molk, Minor, Brown, and Tay. Those were some pretty damned important pieces to the offensive puzzle. I know almost doesn't count, but it really says something that despite those setbacks, they were in every game this year, and came close to winning most of the ones they lost. That's with last year's defense. I'm excited for 2010 and beyond because I think this will be the true start of the RR era. More depth, more practices, more time in his and Gerg's system, more time in the weight room with Sgt. Barwis, more game time experience, and more time for this team to grow and gel together as a unit. You don't hire a reputable company to build a structure, yet fire them and start over when they're halfway done because you think some other company can do it faster. Even if they build it faster, will it be sturdy? And what would be the costs of building it faster? Rome wasn't built in a day; but turned out to be one kick ass empire. Let's just sit back and watch this program prove everyone wrong.
David Brandon himself said that there are some people in the Michigan family that will never accept Rich Rod as the head football coach. I don't look at Rich with rose colored glasses, I look at him as the head coach of the team that I love. I supported those before him and I will support those after him. I won't do it blindly, but I will give them every benefit of a doubt I can.
The people in the Michigan family who don't support Rich have got to be getting nervous. God forbid that he should actually succeed! What will they do then? When Michigan returns to a winning team will they support him then or do they just wait, however long, until he is gone and hope for someone they will be happy with?
I hope Brandon cleans out some of the family who wanted to see Rich fail badly enough that they contacted or supplied the NCAA with information.
I am convinced of it. Brandon can look at the schedule himself and see that 6 or 7 wins may be all that's possible this year. It's an "in for a penny, in for a pound" proposition--there's no guarantees with any other coach out there, and starting over will not be pretty.
Barring absolute disaster, Brandon has the chutzpah and the clout to shout down the naysayers for another year. And the 2011 team will be a very good one. As long as the win chart shows an upward arc, RR has two years. Book it.
This disaster has also revealed that RichRod is on the up and up. That's an important take- away. I like him even better now.
(Forgiveness--I posted this on a thread yesterday, but the diary didn't draw much attention.)
It was so well said that I felt it necessary to opine...and earn my 3rd point in the process.
Michigan fans should have expected a rough transition when RR was hired given the major changes that everyone from Bill Martin to a fair-weather fan knew were coming.
At least Michigan is getting better, not getting worse or going sideways which would be a worrying sign. Assuming he wins 6-8 games this year, I think it would be ridiculous not to give him another year. I can't think of another coach that could come in next year and magically fix everything. If anything, changing coaches would set us back another 2-4 years at least. And you're right Brian...once RR gets this thing on track, we could easily see a decade or two of top 10 football.
Finally although someone would be forgiven for thinking RR is some sort of drama queen given all of the off-the-field issues the last few years, I really think some people just have bad luck in bunches. RR doesn't strike me as an underhanded dude at all.
The year 2013 is the year this year's 39 scholarship athletes will be seniors. 2012 is senior year for the first year of recruits RR had a full recruiting shot at. I don't think 2011 is necessarily make or break. Either of the next two years might be though. I still see wins moving from 3 (2008) to 5 (2009) to 7, 9, 11, 13 (NC).
On this schedule, 13 wins come in 2013. I'd call that nice, steady progress.
Pretty sure the 39 freshmen are a combination of redshirt frosh and the class of 2010 frosh so they all won't be seniors in 2013.
That said I really believe 2011 is THE year because there's the night game, the incredibly easy schedule and Tate and Denard are upper classmen. No excuses. That's gotta be a 10 win team.
I'll take 7-8 wins in 2010 if it means RRod can coach that 2011 team.
The program was in decline long before Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor. I, for one, am thankful that he is the one rebuilding our program. He was the best choice at the time. He has a proven record. He does things the right way (this investigation has proven that point beyond any doubt I had). And it is clear to me, primarily from reading Brian and Tim and all the other wonderful contributors to this blog, that Rodriguez is bringing in high quality players and that a tougher, united team is being built in Ann Arbor.
I can tell from watching Rodriguez on the Michigan Coach’s show every week for the past two years, meeting him when he was in DC last summer, and watching his press conferences, reading the clips, etc. that he cares a great deal about his players. He is passionate about winning. And he respects the tradition of Michigan. I love seeing Jerry Hanlon spend so much time on the sidelines, appearing on the coach’s show, continuing the tradition of reading his letter to the team before the Ohio State game each year. I love seeing Moeller welcomed back to the program. I don’t believe there is anyone who wants to win more for Michigan than Rich Rodriguez. And I like that he embraces our past even though he wasn’t personally a part of it.
In my opinion, if Jerry Hanlon, Bo's right hand man for so many years, supports Rich Rodriguez then I'm confident we're in good hands.
Some forget how bad things were BEFORE Rodriguez was hired. During his final 7 years Carr was 1-6 against Ohio State (the first Michigan coach to suffer a 1-6 stretch). 2-5 in Bowl Games. And, of course, Appalachian State. For comparison, John Cooper was 2-5 against Michigan in his final 7 years.
The Bo-Moeller-Carr era sadly came to an end. It was time to start a new era. I blame Carr for the end or this string. I'm sure other reasonable people can point fingers fairly at someone else. But to end your reign 1-6 against our primary rival is strong evidence that the program was in serious trouble.
In 2008, we hit bottom. We all wish we were 6-6 in 2008 and 7-5 in 2009 but it doesn't really matter that we were 3-9 and 5-7 instead. What matters, to me, is that we re-build the program so that we are competitive with OSU, challenging for the Big Ten Title every year, and a serious contender for the national title on a regular basis.
It seems to me that Coach Rodriguez is putting the pieces together to build a program that will reach these goals. In the past, he turned around programs in 2 years. But I don’t think he started a walkon at quarterback in any of his previous jobs or a true freshman his second year. I am hopeful and quite confident given his track record and steady improvement from 2008 to 2009 that year 3 will be the turn-around year for him at Michigan.
Jim
I walked out of Michigan Stadium after the Appalachian State game wondering how a coach could allow his team to be complacent enought (in the first game!) for that to happen. After the Oregon game the next week (no one mentions this, but to me this was even more embarrassing - Michigan got absolutely smoked, 39-7) I was ready for a new coach.
Yes it was that two game stretch that finally exposed the malaise of the program and the need for a new era to begin...
You don't call broken winning season and bowl births, an NCAA investigation, disgruntled players mouthing off to the press all the while losing to our rivals A and B, turning the program around?
Now I guess the "company line" is something akin to a Lenten Season. The faithful must fast and repent for the poor treatment of Rodriguez, we must understand that this genius has had insurmountable mountains to climb. What is this new testament where what was once sacred is turned on its head? Why are we called on to rededicate ourselves and convert to a new value system where previous wins were less holy than the cross the coaching savior must carry as he leads us to some promised land?
Sorry, I don't buy any of this nonsense. I can't square my love of Michigan with a personality more inclined to plausible deniability than accountability, more apt to point a finger than shoulder a burden. Rodriguez was handed the keys to the kingdom and I'll be damned if I'm going to join the excuse makers. He has failed, it's on him, not Carr, not the players he's pissed off, not the alum who never embraced him.
He's got nothing left but to win, he's tarnished everything else.
I'm guessing you also want those damn kids off of your lawn?
without seeing the results on the field this year needs his/her head examined. If the last two years had been a legacy coach, promoted from within, then UM should have gone in a different direction last December.
A losing season will most likely doom RR, 7-5 or better with wins against MSU and OSU should get at least another year. This upcoming season is like being a freshman in college, you have to do well enough to get to the next year and then really take off.
If we don't beat OSU, then 8-4 or better might be needed to keep the current staff in place. Unfortunately, money talks and big-time boosters and doners might go overboard if there aren't some signature wins this season.
If they minimize the mistakes and play just decent defense, 8-4 or better is doable. I believe RR needs to go at least 4-4 in conference play, including wins over MSU and someone other than Indiana to solidfy his place for 2011. I hear Bowling Green could be tough and we know nothing about ND at this point so it won't be easy, but it's doable.
Go RIchRod and GO BLUE
7 wins, and giving roughly as good as we get in the 10 real games on the schedule.
I think it's realistic. The only position group where we are clearly below average is DB, and if the safeties are just below average instead of off-the-charts awful the overall defense could be average or better.
you are right on the money with your analysis of the M football team for 2010 and 2011. I think that because you know so much more about the UM team than does the "average bear" reporter that "thinks" they know M football, this gives you the ability to give a more accurate reflection of reality. That, and the fact that you actually analyse issues with facts. Thanks again for your fantastic writing.
I don't disagree with your analysis, but I'm interested to know what changed from last November, when you wrote, "acts of God nonwithstanding, Michigan has to go 8-5 next year or Rodriguez should be cut loose. 7-6 might be okay if the bowl matchup is obviously bad."
Or does your 7 win threshold from this post come with the same "only if the bowl matchup is obviously bad" caveat as well?
Dave Brandon became AD.
C'mon don't be such a hater. Last November was on the heels of a disappointing season.
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