The Mountain Will Come To Michigan

I can't help but think back to how many people were calling for Carr's head after the 1997 Outback Bowl loss to Alabama. I'm not about to go reseraching all the newspapers of the day, but I had many friends who said, "We should get a big-time coach. We should get Steve Spurrier." Michigan stuck by Carr. How'd that turn out?

Brian's post can be summed up in one word.

Honestly, I have had enough of the THIS IS MICHIGAN crowd. I think I made my thoughts on them and that meme in my diary that day after the Illinois game: Go find somebody else to cheer for and something else to do in the fall. When the ship is turned around, we'll let you know and you can come back.

Getting to the point at hand, I cant see any situation that doesnt involve outlandish outside factors where Rich gets canned with an 8-4 record. Frankly, I think any bowl appearance keeps his job, unless its a 6-6,7-5 final record that comes after an ugly losing streak that looks similar to last year.

He is stocking the program back up. He didnt forget how to coach. I'd like to see him play with an experience QB before even begin thinking about getting rid of him.

I know that reporters have a job to do and that leads to the media overblowing every single story written. i.e. RR Future

If we could duplicate 100's of Brian's and put them in the main stream media, we might have respectable sports journalism again.

Once again Brian thank you for being the voice of reason and the voice of the official "Michigan Nation."

Keep up the great work as always.

While I think Harbaugh is a jerk, there's no denying he's a good coach. He's deserved all the credits he's gotten for Stanford's upset victories, especially the epic 2007 victory over USC. It should be noted though, that if you're comparing Harbaugh's first season with RR's, Harbaugh had redshirt junior Tavita Pritchard as his QB, who already had two+ years on the team and several starts under his belt before the USC game. Contrast that with walk-on Sheridan with no game experience and pure freshman Threet with no game experience. Harbaugh also did not implement the radical change in offense that RR did, meaning that Pritchard did not have to play in an offense that was totally unsuited to his abilities.

with 1 of those coming against MSU.  Anything less to me would be disappointing even though I understand all the reasons why that might not be realistic. 

I cannot fathom how 8-4 does not get RR back for 2011.  That would be an improvement of 3 wins from last year, as well as a spot in a decent (and, depending on how many of those wins are in conference) bowl.  After the past two years, 8-4 would be a huge success.

Would that win over the fanbase?  I think that there is a faction of the fanbase that would not be won over even if RR went 11-1 and took us to a Rose Bowl.  There is also a faction that, if RR went 1-11, would still want him back (although that faction has probably diminished).  For the majority of fans that fall somewhere in the middle, I think that 8-4 with our somewhat difficult schedule would be more than enough to prevent any calls for RR's head.

I also think that while the record is the most important factor, how we get to that record will be important.  If we lose games down the stretch, do not look competitive or start out hot and then fall apart against B10 competition, this will influence how our record is perceived.  Also, even if his record is 7-5, if one of those 7 is a win against OSU, then that would go a long way with the fans . . .  

Just how close we were in the MSU, Iowa, and Purdue games. Flip those scores around and RRod has an 8-4 team and is the toast of the town. Since we return nearly everybody, we should be able to go 7-5

"...2011, when he will return both specialists, every starter on offense save Steve Schilling and all but three starters on defense."

Also: Actual experience and depth at the QB position including a JR starter (no matter whether it's Tate or Denard), a real, viable amount of upperclassmen, and an incredibly favorable (at least looking at it on 5-27-10) schedule - ND and OSU at home, PSU off the schedule, and WMU, EMU, and SDSU as the 3 other non-con games.

2011 is an indicator. 2012 is the true test.  and if people don't stop stabbing the poor man in the ass all the time he might just bail on his own--and then where would we be?  do you really think harballs is going to come in and saban the joint?

take a pill everybody.  i agree with the brain cook.

Particularly around 7-5.  Because any of us can find situations where 7-5 looks good (2 of the 7 MSU, OSU?), or not so good (don't beat anyone of matter, lose all the big games by 40 points uncompetitively).  It differs slightly at 8-4, because it almost assures you had to beat SOMEBODY.  So the whole notion that 8-4 isn't enough, and we should be winning 10 games this year is ridiculous.  But likewise, I find the notion that we have a great coach (which I believe his track record has shown, and the majority around here believe) can't, you know, overachieve once in 3 years...well, if you believe that, I question your belief in him as a great coach.  Because while all the charts and data shown give credence to the fact that we're not at OSU, PSU level, it never said we're not at least at (or above) Illinois or Purdue level.  It's losing to THOSE teams (and 1-7 Big Ten records) that's making us look bad.  

As has been said, many times, flip those two around, we're a 7 win team.  Add in a victory vs. MSU this year, it's not that hard to get to 8.  Does a loss come out of the U-Conn/ND section where it wasn't expected before? I hope not in that it's U-Conn at home, and ND in the first year under a new coach (it'd be kinda cool NOT to legitimize their new coach for a change), but if it were to occur, it's not a lot to expect we get coached up to upset a team we "Shouldn't", like an Iowa, who we almost beat at their place last time, or a Wisconsin.  Or, under the right stars, OSU.

I'm all for the people who say let the season run it's course before firing him.  But let's make sure we don't look horrid this year before we extend the contract too.

I'm happy if we get 7 or 8 wins. I just really want us to go to a bowl game because bowl season has sucked the last two years. I think that we should start to get yardage parity this year because now Rich Rodriquez has a quarterback that has been in the system for two years. We were awfully close to winning 3 other games last year as well so I feel very confident we will at least get 7 maybe even 8 wins this year.

"2008 was a complete waste. To me, this is year two for Rodriguez, and 2011 is when I expect rubber to meet road." - You have taken the words that I've have been speaking for the past two years out of my mouth. If anybody didn't look at 2008 as a complete write off just has no clue about football. They're are just Michigan fans. They are not fans of, nor are they knowledgable about the sport. This guy has had the painful transitions EVERYWHERE he's been but, he has also been very successful immediately afterwards. Let's take a look at what happened with year "one". Got off to a hot 4-0 start, then we have injuries to Tate, Molk, Minor, Brown,  and Tay. Those were some pretty damned important pieces to the offensive puzzle. I know almost doesn't count, but it really says something that despite those setbacks, they were in every game this year, and came close to winning most of the ones they lost. That's with last year's defense. I'm excited for 2010 and beyond because I think this will be the true start of the RR era. More depth, more practices, more time in his and Gerg's system, more time in the weight room with Sgt. Barwis, more game time experience, and more time for this team to grow and gel together as a  unit. You don't hire a reputable company to build a structure, yet fire them and start over when they're halfway done because you think some other company can do it faster. Even if they build it faster, will it be sturdy? And what would be the costs of building it faster? Rome wasn't built in a day; but turned out to be one kick ass empire. Let's just sit back and watch this program prove everyone wrong.

David Brandon himself said that there are some people in the Michigan family that will never accept Rich Rod as the head football coach. I don't look at Rich with rose colored glasses, I look at him as the head coach of the team that I love. I supported those before him and I will support those after him. I won't do it blindly, but I will give them every benefit of a doubt I can.

The people in the Michigan family who don't support Rich have got to be getting nervous. God forbid that he should actually succeed! What will they do then? When Michigan returns to a winning team will they support him then or do they just wait, however long, until he is gone and hope for someone they will be happy with?

I hope Brandon cleans out some of the family who wanted to see Rich fail badly enough that they contacted or supplied the NCAA with information.

I am convinced of it. Brandon can look at the schedule himself and see that 6 or 7 wins may be all that's possible this year. It's an "in for a penny, in for a pound" proposition--there's no guarantees with any other coach out there, and starting over will not be pretty. 

Barring absolute disaster, Brandon has the chutzpah and the clout to shout down the naysayers for another year. And the 2011 team will be a very good one. As long as the win chart shows an upward arc, RR has two years. Book it.

This disaster has also revealed that RichRod is on the up and up. That's an important take- away. I like him even better now.

(Forgiveness--I posted this on a thread yesterday, but the diary didn't draw much attention.)

It was so well said that I felt it necessary to opine...and earn my 3rd point in the process.

Michigan fans should have expected a rough transition when RR was hired given the major changes that everyone from Bill Martin to a fair-weather fan knew were coming.

At least Michigan is getting better, not getting worse or going sideways which would be a worrying sign.  Assuming he wins 6-8 games this year, I think it would be ridiculous not to give him another year.  I can't think of another coach that could come in next year and magically fix everything.  If anything, changing coaches would set us back another 2-4 years at least.  And you're right Brian...once RR gets this thing on track, we could easily see a decade or two of top 10 football.

Finally although someone would be forgiven for thinking RR is some sort of drama queen given all of the off-the-field issues the last few years, I really think some people just have bad luck in bunches.  RR doesn't strike me as an underhanded dude at all.

The year 2013 is the year this year's 39 scholarship athletes will be seniors.  2012 is senior year for the first year of recruits RR had a full recruiting shot at.  I don't think 2011 is necessarily make or break.  Either of the next two years might be though.  I still see wins moving from 3 (2008) to 5 (2009) to 7, 9, 11, 13 (NC). 

On this schedule, 13 wins come in 2013.  I'd call that nice, steady progress.

The program was in decline long before Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor.  I, for one, am thankful that he is the one rebuilding our program.  He was the best choice at the time.  He has a proven record.  He does things the right way (this investigation has proven that point beyond any doubt I had).  And it is clear to me, primarily from reading Brian and Tim and all the other wonderful contributors to this blog, that Rodriguez is bringing in high quality players and that a tougher, united team is being built in Ann Arbor.

I can tell from watching Rodriguez on the Michigan Coach’s show every week for the past two years, meeting him when he was in DC last summer, and watching his press conferences, reading the clips, etc. that he cares a great deal about his players.  He is passionate about winning.  And he respects the tradition of Michigan.  I love seeing Jerry Hanlon spend so much time on the sidelines, appearing on the coach’s show, continuing the tradition of reading his letter to the team before the Ohio State game each year.  I love seeing Moeller welcomed back to the program.  I don’t believe there is anyone who wants to win more for Michigan than Rich Rodriguez.  And I like that he embraces our past even though he wasn’t personally a part of it.

In my opinion, if Jerry Hanlon, Bo's right hand man for so many years, supports Rich Rodriguez then I'm confident we're in good hands.

Some forget how bad things were BEFORE Rodriguez was hired.  During his final 7 years Carr was 1-6 against Ohio State (the first Michigan coach to suffer a 1-6 stretch).  2-5 in Bowl Games.  And, of course, Appalachian State.  For comparison, John Cooper was 2-5 against Michigan in his final 7 years.

The Bo-Moeller-Carr era sadly came to an end.  It was time to start a new era.  I blame Carr for the end or this string.  I'm sure other reasonable people can point fingers fairly at someone else.  But to end your reign 1-6 against our primary rival is strong evidence that the program was in serious trouble.

In 2008, we hit bottom.  We all wish we were 6-6 in 2008 and 7-5 in 2009 but it doesn't really matter that we were 3-9 and 5-7 instead.  What matters, to me, is that we re-build the program so that we are competitive with OSU, challenging for the Big Ten Title every year, and a serious contender for the national title on a regular basis.

It seems to me that Coach Rodriguez is putting the pieces together to build a program that will reach these goals.  In the past, he turned around programs in 2 years.  But I don’t think he started a walkon at quarterback in any of his previous jobs or a true freshman his second year.  I am hopeful and quite confident given his track record and steady improvement from 2008 to 2009 that year 3 will be the turn-around year for him at Michigan. 

Jim

without seeing the results on the field this year needs his/her head examined.  If the last two years had been a legacy coach, promoted from within, then UM should have gone in a different direction last December.

A losing season will most likely doom RR, 7-5 or better with wins against MSU and OSU should get at least another year.  This upcoming season is like being a freshman in college, you have to do well enough to get to the next year and then really take off.

If we don't beat OSU, then 8-4 or better might be needed to keep the current staff in place.  Unfortunately, money talks and big-time boosters and doners might go overboard if there aren't some signature wins this season.

If they minimize the mistakes and play just decent defense, 8-4 or better is doable.  I believe RR needs to go at least 4-4 in conference play, including wins over MSU and someone other than Indiana to solidfy his place for 2011.  I hear Bowling Green could be tough and we know nothing about ND at this point so it won't be easy, but it's doable.

Go RIchRod and GO BLUE

7 wins, and giving roughly as good as we get in the 10 real games on the schedule.

I think it's realistic. The only position group where we are clearly below average is DB, and if the safeties are just below average instead of off-the-charts awful the overall defense could be average or better.

you are right on the money with your analysis of the M football team for 2010 and 2011. I think that because you know so much more about the UM team than does the "average bear" reporter that "thinks" they know M football, this gives you the ability to give a more accurate reflection of reality. That, and the fact that you actually analyse issues with facts. Thanks again for your fantastic writing.

Me thinks you all are wasting your allotted tube space in the internets.

See if this argument is necessary a month into the season; then check back in with each other after another month; then do so after another. 

Writing about and debating this now is just a big mental and virtual circle jerk. Have fun with that. 

i hated the last two season, with a passion, but dont blame RR for that. He brought a whole new scheme with him, and that takes time to kick in. We cant fire him, we need him. A new coach will start these articles all over again, and so on and so forth. Even with the losses, u can see the ability of the team and players, as they grow it will only get better, and consistent. i believe with RR we will win a championship before Devin Gardner grad. The chance to score on any givin play is scary, this years team will  put that together frequently, they have experience now, and it will only get better and better, which will land top recruits and give us the chance to win in every game no matter who were playing

Believe.....GO BLUE

Given the weak defensive depth and no QB's his first year , his losing record was quite predictable.  May be Bo would have gotten a .500 record out of the 2008 squad.

2009...RR finished about where I thought he would given a very weak defense.  The team should have played  more aggressive at home  against Purdue, instead of going into a shell shock after a few big plays.  If we would have won the home game against Purdue we would have finished .500 and played in a bowl game.

2010..Overall talent and depth has improved within the D.  It may take half the year before this young defense begins to gel.  I'm hoping for 6 to 8 wins!  If RR can get the team to a bowl, then he deserves at least one more season got get 9 or more wins in 2011.  I would give RR another year even if he only wins 4 or 5 games this season...but I have this feeling RR will have to win 8 games this season and beat MSU or OSU to keep his job. I don't like the prospects of throwing in the towel early on RR. 

I don't see another NC here until RR can build a dominating defense.  He may have started the building blocks for one but the job will not be completed for another several years!  Though, if we can get back to having the typical good UM defense, I could see 9 to 10 wins per season with BCS bowl games in our immediate future. Especially if the spread offense can pile up the points.

I thought back in mid-season 2008 that we'd be opening up a new stadium with a new team in 2010.  One that has some depth/experience at QB and Defense.  I agree completely with this analysis that says 2011.  I'm as anxious as anyone to see if we can pull off 7-8 wins and turn the heat down to Medium on RichRod for a year.  

Listening to the radio and reading outside information, you'd never think he'd be given the opportunity.  But I have confidence that Brandon knows what's up and think as long as the wheels don't come off again (do we have any left on this ride?) Rodriguez will be back in 2011.  I think we'll go 7-6 just to make it interesting and keep all the haters riled up, but 2011 can't get here fast enough for me.  The spoiled fans will be gone and those of us who stuck this thing out will watch with pride...

I have to agree with this analysis.  An immediate, emotional firing of Rodriguez following a marginal season in 2010 is going to create chaos.  Another coaching search and player attrition would leave the program possibly worse off than it could be with Rodriguez at the helm in 2011.  I think with the large numbers of upperclassmen starters in the 2011 season, that should be the real measuring stick.  There must be positive movements toward returning to national prominence.  A 5-7 season would be tough to swallow and I know most fans would have a tough time sitting through a season that mirrors last year’s second half collapse.  However, it is my opinion that continuity rules in college sports and by axing Rodriguez after 2010 is a mistake that will have repercussions and will likely mean Michigan continuing as a marginal to below average team for another 2-3 years.  Hopefully none of this matters and RR goes 9-3 next year. 

Drive the ball right down OSU's throat!!!