Monday Recruitin'

Update 1/27: Linked to articles on LA WR Travante Stallworth, SC OL Quinton Washington, LA DE Bennie Logan, PA WR Je'Ron Stokes, FL QB Denard Robinson. Video on Stokes.

Added FL QB Austin Dantin, HI OL Stan Hasiak.

Removed TX CB Demontre Hurst(Okie State), FL WR Willie Haulstead(FSU), OH OL Henry Conway(MSU), OH OL Chris Freeman(mutual parting), PA LB Dan Mason (Pitt), NC S Josh Hunter (UNC), OH OL Marcus Hall.

Speculation on PA WR Je'Ron Stokes.

As always, some links via Varsity Blue.

Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.

With signing day rapidly approaching and Michigan targets dwindling, a format change: we'll run down each potential addition to the class in a systematic fashion. Both wobbly defensive tackle recruits are, for the purposes of this post, considered uncommitted.

Michigan was interested in these guys at some point but it's now clear that Michigan is no longer involved with them and they go without mention below: OH OL Chris Freeman, OH OL Henry Conway, PA LB Dan Mason, OH CB Mike Williams, FL LB Mike Marry, and NC S Josh Hunter.

Basic questions

How many to give? The recruiting board currently shows 26 open spots with a possibility of going to 28 if a couple little-used seniors aren't extended a fifth year. However, by this point Mark Moundros is an unaccounted-for scholarship player and two others—QB Nick Sheridan and LS George Morales—may be as well. I think 25 is the most likely number. If they get real lucky they can push that out one or two, but that is not likely to become necessary.

Not counting the two wobbly DTs, Michigan has eighteen commitments. Seven slots remain.

What are the remaining needs? In approximate order of importance:

1. A second DT
2. A second QB
3. A second cornerback
4. A second outside WR
5. A third OL
6. A third DE
7. Whateva, I do what I want!

Expected Commits

PA WR Je'Ron Stokes. This comes from a newspaper—newspapers are pretty sketchy on the details when it comes to recruiting—but it agrees with the general tenor of what I've been reading:

- Syracuse tried to get involved with wide receiver Je'Ron Stokes of Philadelphia, but he's apparently headed to Michigan.

Hopefully that's got some veracity behind it; Penn State is filling up and just picked up a commit from NJ WR Shawney Kersey, so the threat they pose seems considerably more limited. Illinois and Tennessee are the other main contenders. This article on Stokes from a UT perspective isn't particularly illuminating, just the usual about Stokes meeting this coach and so forth and so on. This, however, sounds bad for the Volunteers:

“I would really like to do that,” Stokes said. “I think they (the NCAA) should (allow that) because of situations like this. I’m going on prior knowledge.

“It is what it is.”

Stokes said he picked UT because of the people he met in Knoxville, namely former coach Phillip Fulmer.

“When Fulmer was there, the atmosphere felt right because I was around people I felt comfortable with and I knew Tennessee was an established program at the time,” Stokes said. “It’s all about people."

Stokes would be a big pickup, one that would just about replace the loss Michigan suffered when MN WR Bryce McNeal decommitted. Stokes played in the Army game, is a four-star to both Scout and Rivals, and is the #68 player overall to ESPN.

FL QB Denard Robinson and FL CB Adrian Witty. This package deal thing is apparently coming off, and Michigan is one of two schools to offer both. Kansas State, the other, is not a threat. GBW has an article titled "Deerfield Coach optimistic on Robinson, Witty"($) and the local paper is all :

Deerfield Beach quarterback Denard Robinson, ranked fourth in the Broward County Top 25, is the top uncommitted prospect in the county. Robinson has held an offer to Florida for quite some time. While the Florida faithful remain positive Robinson will be a Gator, it appears more and more likely that Robinson will choose Michigan. …

Also in play for Michigan is Robinson's teammate, defensive back Adrian Witty, ranked 25th in the Broward Top 25. Witty rebounded from a torn ACL in 2007 to finish with 50 tackles and an interception during his senior campaign. The two likely will head to the same school.

Robinson will be given a shot to play QB, and Michigan will need him to stay there for at least a year or two even if he doesn't win the job. However, if he doesn't win it Robinson is also a Florida-level corner prospect who figures to find his way on the field somewhere. He's sort of like two recruits in one.

Witty, well… he's a flier and he'd be defying the odds to contribute. This happens regularly, but it would be a longshot.

DT DeQuinta Jones. Jones took his Michigan official last weekend and there's an encouraging article header at GBW: "Michigan Tightens Its Grip on Jones". If he doesn't take a visit this weekend to Tennessee there's not much to worry about—canceled trips in the aftermath of an official are always good for the most recent visitee. If he goes, there's some concern. A quote from Sam Webb's latest podcast:

Sounded like Michgian went a long way towards firming up his commitment. He said he thinks he'll be back at Michigan at june … but he said "I think" so there's some window for other schools.

Will be one to watch on signing day still, but sounds good.

Approximately 50-50

LA WR Travante Stallworth. Stallworth went to Auburn for his third and final official visit this weekend. A pre-visit article contains this murky quote:

“I’m solid to Auburn in some ways, but I’m still looking,” Stallworth said. “I want to be absolutely sure of my choice, because I’ll be there for the next four years.”

Parse that if you can. There is as of yet no reaction from the trip. So… yeah. Nobody knows on this one, other than it's likely to be M or Auburn.

SC OL Quinton Washington. Washington's given no indication as to where he's leaning of late. Rodriguez just made his in-home:

According to Timberland coach Art Craig, Kiffin met with Washington's parents and then saw the player at school. Rodriguez came in around 7:00 PM Thursday night and met with the family at the home and left around 11:00 PM. "He answered a lot of questions that his mom had about distance," Craig said.

Visits to Tennessee and Miami are on tap with Michigan and the two in-state schools in the rear view mirror. Anything I could say about his decision would be speculation.

Update on Washington's UT trip:

He said the trip was nice," Timberland coach Art Craig said. "He said everyone was nice. He said the coaches were excited about their team."

That sounds pretty lukewarm.

SC DE Sam Montgomery. Montgomery said Michigan was "two steps ahead" of everyone else after his official but has returned to a neutral, everyone's-equal stance as the immediate impact of the visit wears off. He's going on a whirlwind tour over the next week and a half:

Montgomery was visited this week by assistants from Clemson and LSU and Oregon head coach Mike Bellotti. Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez will be in on Thursday. This weekend Montgomery will take an official visit to LSU. Next week he will take a mid week visit to Oregon and a weekend visit to Tennessee.

Montgomery took a visit to UNC after his Michigan one. Unofficials to the in-state schools were considered but ultimately decided against; they appear to be on the outside looking in. LSU was the favorite until they disposed of DL coach Earl Lane… no one really knows where he's leaning now.

Probably Not, But Some Vague Shot

OK DT Pearlie Graves. Graves, like Jones, has been wavering and visited a few different schools recently. Unlike Graves, Jones took his Michigan official in the fall and opportunities to resolidify his recruitment are restricted to Michigan's allotted in-home visits. Persistent rumors about Oklahoma are worrying, and at this point I think Michigan is worse than 50-50 to keep him.

HI OL Stan Hasiak. Hasiak was just added to the board on the strength of his mug on Scout's front page and an accompanying mod-generated board thread. Internet sleuthing turns up a Michigan offer as early as may, a UCLA commitment that was rescinded and quickly followed by a Cal commitment, and a weekend visit to Washington. Hasiak actually visited in January without any of the premium sites picking up on it. Can they actually pull a kid from Hawaii who's committed to two different West Coast schools? That seems as doubtful as some random Florida OL commit saying seeya to Urban Meyer and coming north.

LA DE Bennie Logan. Logan's an interesting guy, a late-bloomer in Louisiana who LSU is on the verge of pissing off. They've got a grayshirt offer out to him, which Logan didn't seem pleased by. Logan supposedly just got an LSU offer, which if true 1) means they're basically conceding on Montgomery and 2) would probably result in a quick LSU commit. The latter was said to be a high probability by Webb.

Very Probably Not

OH OL Marcus Hall. Hall's Michigan lead was ephemeral and likely just done to screw around with people. Miami now "leads"($), but everyone expects it to be Ohio State.

LA LB Barkevious Mingo. He visited a couple weeks ago but all indications are that LSU is the pick. Sadly, the Mingo will not eat Ohio State babies.

FL WR Willie Haulstead made a "final decision" after returning from his Florida State trip; heuristics and all that: ain't in our favor. Webb also discussed it, relaying that decision but leaving the door open. I've got some inside info from the Florida State side of things; I think Haulstead's done and was never that close to a Michigan commitment.

Backup Plans?

Michigan brought in FL QB Austin Dantin for a visit this weekend. His other schools are of the MAC variety and so is his rating; it looks like he's an emergency alternative in case Robinson does not work out.

Also visiting was GA WR/TE Terrell Mitchell, a three-star type who seemed destined for Kentucky until Michigan jumped back in. He's huge (6'6" 220) for a wideout, but there are rumored grade issues.

FL LB Willie Ferrell. Ferrell decommitted from LSU and is now considering a couple of lower-level SEC schools and… FAMU? I don't think Michigan has or will offer.

OH WR Terrence Davis. Davis was once a four-star but a paucity of recruiting attention—again related to grades—has seen him slip. There were vague rumors he might be a Michigan recruit recently; he could get a last-second offer if they've got an open spot left.

MI DE Dylan Farrington. Farrington just committed to Bowling Green but, like Davis, he's a guy with grade issues who might get a late offer.

One Man's Semi-Informed Guess As To What Will Happen

Michigan picks up Stokes, Robinson, and Witty. They keep Jones but lose Pearlie Graves. They pick up two from the group of Montgomery, Mitchell, Washington, Graves, Hasiak, and Stallworth, and take a flier on someone from the "backup plans" list or some guy no one's heard of. That's 25.

How'd We Do If This Was The Future And Lo It Came To Pass?

Pretty freakin' good considering everything (3-9, media storm accompanying, negative recruiting, decommit parade). If the predictions above come to fruition Michigan would have replaced every decommit except Graves with a basically equivalent prospect and racked up between 15 and 17 four star or better recruits on Rivals. (Scout's a bit more down on the class; I don't think I take ESPN seriously enough to care what they think about whole classes.) After everything there'd be two quality QB recruits, a quality outside receiver, and a lot of talent elsewhere.

In this scenario Michigan would have met needs 1, 2, and 4 with outstanding prospects and probably done the same with either or both of 5 and 6. Only the second corner spot would be iffy.

There are some hypothetical downers, mostly the random guy at the end of the class, the marginal recruit as the second corner, and the relative paucity of top-100 guys (only two or three, most likely). Ballpark overall grade: B+ on a strict grading scale.