national champs baby
Mid-Week Metrics Hates Your Punt
Filed under:
[Ed-M: for the non-EV initiated, explanation of the maths are here. Also you can now use the tag "mid-week metrics" to read previous entries]
This week’s take on the week that was, and the week to come.
Charting Michigan’s odds of winning throughout Saturday’s game: Brief bumps around the two first half TD’s and then a big climb throughout the third quarter.
Best Three Plays:
1. Denard to Roundtree for 57 yards, 16%
2. Hawthorne intercepts Persa, 14%
3. Kovacs shuts the door on the fourth down option, 13%
Worst Three Plays:
1. Denard Interception #1, –13%
2. Denard Interception #2, –11%
3. Denard Interception #3, –10%
So the three first half picks were the three most damaging plays of the day for Michigan, and Denard only had one play in the top 3. At the end of the day he still ended up +65%!
For the season, Denard’s Win Percentage Added stands at +265%. Each team starts at 50% so they have added 50% per game times 6 games is 300% added. The defense, special teams and non-Denard offensive players have accounted for a total of 35%. Denard’s number is far and away the top in the country so far. Second is Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas at +177%. Russell Wilson is next behind him at +158%.
Game Recap
Rush offense: –1, equal to ND for worst opponent adjusted performance of the season
Pass offense: +12, best of the season (Michigan’s best two games have both come despite 3 interceptions)
Rush defense: –3, worst performance of the season
Pass defense: +1, worst performance of the season
Special Teams: –2, 4th best of the season
Field Position: A rare win for Michigan, picking up a 23-22 win in expected points based on drive starts.
Players:
Denard was +12 (+10 passing, +2 rushing), second to ND on the season
Michael Shaw: +2
Vincent Smith: –1
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –5
(Expected value of offensives formations and more after the jump)
UFR + EV = Awesomely small sample sizes
I have linked up the UFR analysis with the expected value database to see what is working and what isn’t. Only offense now, hoping to have defense next week.
| Formation | Plays | Avg Value | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun trips TE | 19 | 0.46 | 8.74 |
| Shotgun trips | 27 | 0.37 | 10.00 |
| Shotgun 3-wide | 93 | 0.32 | 29.90 |
| Shotgun 2TE | 18 | 0.25 | 4.52 |
| I-Form | 25 | -0.12 | -3.06 |
| I-form Big | 18 | -0.24 | -4.29 |
Shotgun good, I-form bad.
| Defense | Plays | Avg Value | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3 even | 21 | 0.57 | 11.97 |
| 4-3 over | 16 | 0.45 | 7.14 |
| 4-3 under | 29 | 0.37 | 10.87 |
| Base 4-3 | 43 | 0.30 | 13.04 |
| Base 3-4 | 33 | 0.24 | 7.90 |
| Nickel | 17 | 0.23 | 3.96 |
| 3-3-5 stack | 15 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Base 4-4 | 11 | -0.05 | -0.51 |
| 3-3-5 under | 15 | -0.12 | -1.84 |
A lot of this is based on opponent, but Michigan has done very well versus the 4-3.
| Play Call | Plays | Avg Value | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zone read keeper | 11 | 0.54 | 5.93 |
| Zone read dive | 37 | 0.34 | 12.53 |
| QB power | 19 | 0.28 | 5.35 |
| Hitch | 10 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Power off tackle | 20 | -0.23 | -4.52 |
Zone Read FTW, literally.
| RB | TE | WR | Plays | Avg Value | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0.43 | 11.14 |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 126 | 0.37 | 47.05 |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0.31 | 14.74 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0.10 | 3.91 |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 21 | -0.09 | -1.95 |
2 RBs is bad news.
Gutless Punt Decision of the Week
Trying out a new feature this week in honor of Brian’s twitter callout of Ron Zook’s punt from Indiana’s 30.
Each week I will pick the worst punt decision of the week. The call will be based on field position, yards to go and game situation and ultimately be based on my gut looking at all the relative kicks.
In this week’s slate of games, there were 93 punts from opponent territory. Of these 12 came with the game within two scores and 3 or less yards to go. The ultimate chicken of the week goes to Frank Solich at Ohio (NTO). Facing a 4th and 1 from the Buffalo 36, Solich decides to “trust his defense” and punt the ball away. The gutless decision of the week is based on situation and not result, but man does the result really make this one good. Ohio punter Paul Hershey boots the ball 11 yards and Buffalo proceeds to march 75 yards for a touchdown on the ensuing drive. Ohio lost by 1. [Ed-M: For context, Buffalo's rush defense is among, if not the worst in the country.]
Updated Season Projection
About an 80% chance of hitting double digit regular season wins. With the expected win versus Northwestern, odds of an undefeated regular season stay at 1 in 11.
Remaining games with change vs last week’s odds:
@Michigan St: 47% (-1%)
Purdue: 100% (nc)
@Iowa: 70% (+7%)
@Illinois: 40% (-5%)
Nebraska: 77% (+3%)
Ohio: 93% (-2%)
Rankings
My top 5
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma St
3. Boise St
4. Wisconsin
5. Oklahoma
Other Big Ten:
8. Illinois
10. Michigan
19. Michigan St
27. Penn St
32. Nebraska
64. Iowa
66. Purdue
67. Northwestern
94. Ohio
105. Indiana
107. Minnesota
Michigan St Preview
Rush Offense:
Michigan: +6, 5th (Oregon), 1st
Michigan St: +4, 6th, 1st
Denard: +4, 2nd QB rusher nationally (Klein, Kansas St)
Fitz: +1, 72nd RB (Smith, GT)
Vincent Smith: +1, (dnq)
Pass Offense:
Michigan: +3, 28th (Baylor), 3rd (Wisconsin)
Michigan St: +5, 12th, 2nd
Denard: +3, 51st passer (Griffin, Baylor)
Junior Hemingway: +5, 63rd (Kendall Wright, Baylor)
Rush Defense:
Michigan: +3, 23rd (LSU), 5th
Michigan St: –2, 98th, 11th
Le’Veon Bell: +1, 46th
Edwin Baker: –1, 188 (of 217)
Pass Defense:
Michigan: +1, 50th (UCF), 7th (Penn St)
Michigan St: +2, 42nd, 5th
Kirk Cousins: +3, 46th
BJ Cunningham: +8, 16th
Special Teams:
Michigan: –1, 90th (Texas Tech), 12th (Purdue)
Michigan St: +1, 57th, 6th
Prediction:
I’ll go straight numbers here and call it 28-27 Michigan St but this game is a toss-up. Every unit is about comparable to the oppositions with the exception of Michigan’s run defense vs Sparty’s ground game in Michigan’s favor. A slight Michigan advantage there is offset by the game in East Lansing. We find any Hoke magic and Paul is heading back to Ann Arbor.
October 12th, 2011 at 8:50 AM | 
Best argument for Denards
Best argument for Denards
October 12th, 2011 at 8:53 AM |
You're the man
You're the man
Mathlete! Many thanks
Your MGoLawyer in Columbus. Unabashedly representing the interests of Wolverines all across enemy territory and now back hoMe.
October 12th, 2011 at 9:30 AM |
What's OSU's expected W-L
What's OSU's expected W-L
What's OSU's expected W-L right now?
October 12th, 2011 at 9:40 AM |
I'd also be interested in
I'd also be interested in
I'd also be interested in seeing the OSU-Neb expected win percentage chart.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:30 AM |
I'll Second That
I'll Second That
And ask if it would be possible to have a graph of all B1G teams' win probabilities?
October 12th, 2011 at 10:18 AM |
5 and 7
October 12th, 2011 at 10:40 AM |
Thanks
Thanks
I would love for them to miss a bowl game this year, and then get a bowl ban for next year as their penalty for Tat-Gate
Your MGoLawyer in Columbus. Unabashedly representing the interests of Wolverines all across enemy territory and now back hoMe.
October 12th, 2011 at 9:32 AM |
FAQ?
FAQ?
This is interesting. Forgive my ignorance, but is there some sort of FAQ that explains all of the concepts you use? Thanks.
BBA '92, Big Ten Champs All 4 Years
October 12th, 2011 at 10:06 AM |
+1
In particular, an
+1
In particular, an
+1
In particular, an explanation of what, e.g., "Michigan: +3, 28th (Baylor), 3rd (Wisconsin)" means would be awesome. My puny brain can make neither head nor tail of that gibber-jabber.
Or a link to the first place you used that stuff.
Thanks.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:11 AM |
Unless I'm mistaken, the +3
Unless I'm mistaken, the +3
Unless I'm mistaken, the +3 is Mathlete's metric, 28th is national rank, Baylor is the top team nationally, we're third in conference and Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten.
Go Blue!
October 12th, 2011 at 10:53 AM |
IIRC, that number is in PAN
IIRC, that number is in PAN
IIRC, that number is in PAN or Points Above Normal. +3 means that unit will earn our team a 3 point advantage more than the average team. Basically, if MSU is the average team, +3 means that we can expect a 3 point win. So, he calculates the PAN for all of the units and gets a general idea of what the spread would be. He also gives a 3 point favor to the home team. Each point is work 3% in probability. So, he starts at 50% and a 3 point favor puts the home team at 59%. Then he adds or subtracts 3% from that for each PAN and comes up with a percentage. He'd have to confirm this, but I'm pretty sure most of that is correct.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:04 AM |
PAN description:
PAN description:
Zero PAN means you are completely average. For a BCS conference team like Michigan this typically means bottom third of the league. A three-points swing in PAN typically equates to an additional win or loss over the course of a season.
+7 will put you around the Top 25 on the season
+14 is typically Top Ten and potential BCS game
+21 is best in class and probably playing for a national championship
The top rated team I have is Florida 2008. They finished +13 on offense, +7 on defense and +3 in special teams. The top Big Ten team is Ohio 2005 at +19 (7/9/3). The top Michigan team is 2006 at +14 (4/6/4). They come in at 50th overall in the last 8 seasons.
Go Blue!
October 12th, 2011 at 9:36 AM |
To be fair to Fitz
To be fair to Fitz
He had a few good runs called back for holding penalties. Granted, looking at the replays, at least one of those holding penalties enabled the good run.
October 12th, 2011 at 9:59 AM |
I'm trying to figure out how
I'm trying to figure out how
I'm trying to figure out how Illinois is better than UM. Both teams are 6-0, both have good offenses and good-ish defenses, both have pounded a few bad teams, both have squeaked by the one good team they have played but against the two opponents we have in common UM has won handily (24 vs. WMU and 18 vs. NW) while Illiniois has squeaked by both.
We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!
October 12th, 2011 at 10:15 AM |
simple answer
simple answer
ASU > ND
RIP my avatar, June 14, 1998 - October 26, 2012.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:57 AM |
9% is for home field
9% is for home field
9% is for home field advantage, so he basically has them as even. Last week, we would have been a favorite on a neutral field.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:42 AM |
ya
ya
but their overall PAN is also better (as they're ranked 8 and we're 10).
RIP my avatar, June 14, 1998 - October 26, 2012.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:48 AM |
Yea, they are about even.
Yea, they are about even.
Yea, they are about even. That extra 1% equates to about 1/3 PAN.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:34 AM |
Turnovers
Turnovers
will likely be the key to the game.......
October 12th, 2011 at 11:56 AM |
In related news:
In related news:
Also, liquid water is wet.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:50 AM |
ANOVA
ANOVA
Time to see if those shotgun/I form differences are significant, perhaps?
For the record, I'm not a eugenicist.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:43 AM |
oh oh oh
oh oh oh
do you have a better/more concise explanation of ANOVA than this (which I am too lazy to read)?
RIP my avatar, June 14, 1998 - October 26, 2012.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:53 AM |
Hey Mathlete
Hey Mathlete
I'm loving the Mid-Week Metrics posts, but one thought regarding the best and worst plays:
Would it be possible to note the play number of each instead of (or in addition to) just ranking them 1 2 3?
I'm pretty sure I can find them in the chart, but it's still tought to tell since we don't know what play number they were. It would also be interesting to how the Win Percentage responds to the team's play calling after important plays.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:11 AM |
Holy monkey balls
Holy monkey balls
How long does this take you Mathlete? This requires a ridiculous amount of data. There must be a streamlined way of accessing the data and crunching your numbers. Or you just don't sleep.
Impressed as always...
That's just like your opinion man...
October 12th, 2011 at 12:06 PM |
i am not sure i can agree with:
i am not sure i can agree with:
Other Big Ten:
64. Iowa
66. Purdue
67. Northwestern
94. Ohio
105. Indiana
107. Minnesota
ohio being more Minnesota than Purdue hurts my brain.
2013 resolution - make it onto the 2014 favorite MGoPosters post, not ironically
October 12th, 2011 at 12:53 PM |
makes
makes
my brain feel all happy inside
Follow me on Twitter @gfraley05
October 12th, 2011 at 12:43 PM |
The
The
The real questions are.....
Will KState keep going undefeated (The JCB won on them last week!!!)
And, natch, will Northwestern cover the +6.5/7 at Iowa this week
I'll hit submit, wait and read.
Thanks, Mathlete
Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS
MSU/IU at the JCB
October 12th, 2011 at 1:36 PM |
I have K-St as a pick-em this
I have K-St as a pick-em this
I have K-St as a pick-em this weekend vs Texas Tech and with 3-4 losses when the regular season is over.
You know I always hate on NW, Iowa with the cover.
October 12th, 2011 at 2:39 PM |
Mathlete: how accurate were you last year?
Mathlete: how accurate were you last year?
I remember you predicting us winning 8 or 9 (I think), and obviously that was off a bit, but that's just N=1 and I'm not asking you to be Nostradamus here...I know that even good predictive models are only accurate 50+% of the time.
But I would like to know how well you predicted other Big 10 teams at the midseason point last year, so I can decide just how much Kool-Aid I should drink in advance of Saturday's game. Thanks!
When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing. -Bo
October 12th, 2011 at 6:48 PM |
posted from iPhone
posted from iPhone
I love the best/worst three plays feature. Some of those Michigan win probabilities seem much, much too generous (most egregiously, OSU).
October 13th, 2011 at 4:39 PM |
Id assume that the numbers
Id assume that the numbers
Id assume that the numbers are based on results, so dont account for returning starters or anything. So if Ohio State played at the exact same level they are now, and we played at the exact same level we are now, we would win roughly 92% of the time.
October 13th, 2011 at 6:03 PM |
Just a thought for a future,
Just a thought for a future,
Just a thought for a future, off-season diary...
It would be cool for you to do preseason predictions on teams based on player PAN. Basically, if a player is +12 PAN for their team and they leave, replace them with a calculated average for a new starter in that position. Maybe the new starter has some playing time and already has a +2 PAN and you can extrapolate that. The other option would be to assign value to players based on recruiting ranking or some combination of the two (5* players with +2 PAN after their sophomore year average +5 PAN as a junior in their senior year).
Using this, you could estimate a team's PAN and do preseason rankings, estimate EOY records, etc. This is something that I've thought about for a while, but I don't have the means of doing it. You, on the other hand, already have all of the data and most of the formula done.
Best argument for Denard's Heisman candicacy I have seen yet. Mathlete for Blog-Heisman!
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts - Richard Feynman