national champs baby
Mid-Week Metrics Hates Your Punt
This week’s take on the week that was, and the week to come.
Charting Michigan’s odds of winning throughout Saturday’s game: Brief bumps around the two first half TD’s and then a big climb throughout the third quarter.
Best Three Plays:
1. Denard to Roundtree for 57 yards, 16%
2. Hawthorne intercepts Persa, 14%
3. Kovacs shuts the door on the fourth down option, 13%
Worst Three Plays:
1. Denard Interception #1, –13%
2. Denard Interception #2, –11%
3. Denard Interception #3, –10%
So the three first half picks were the three most damaging plays of the day for Michigan, and Denard only had one play in the top 3. At the end of the day he still ended up +65%!
For the season, Denard’s Win Percentage Added stands at +265%. Each team starts at 50% so they have added 50% per game times 6 games is 300% added. The defense, special teams and non-Denard offensive players have accounted for a total of 35%. Denard’s number is far and away the top in the country so far. Second is Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas at +177%. Russell Wilson is next behind him at +158%.
Rush offense: –1, equal to ND for worst opponent adjusted performance of the season
Pass offense: +12, best of the season (Michigan’s best two games have both come despite 3 interceptions)
Rush defense: –3, worst performance of the season
Pass defense: +1, worst performance of the season
Special Teams: –2, 4th best of the season
Field Position: A rare win for Michigan, picking up a 23-22 win in expected points based on drive starts.
Denard was +12 (+10 passing, +2 rushing), second to ND on the season
Michael Shaw: +2
Vincent Smith: –1
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –5
(Expected value of offensives formations and more after the jump)
UFR + EV = Awesomely small sample sizes
I have linked up the UFR analysis with the expected value database to see what is working and what isn’t. Only offense now, hoping to have defense next week.
|Shotgun trips TE||19||0.46||8.74|
Shotgun good, I-form bad.
A lot of this is based on opponent, but Michigan has done very well versus the 4-3.
|Play Call||Plays||Avg Value||Total|
|Zone read keeper||11||0.54||5.93|
|Zone read dive||37||0.34||12.53|
|Power off tackle||20||-0.23||-4.52|
Zone Read FTW, literally.
2 RBs is bad news.
Gutless Punt Decision of the Week
Trying out a new feature this week in honor of Brian’s twitter callout of Ron Zook’s punt from Indiana’s 30.
Each week I will pick the worst punt decision of the week. The call will be based on field position, yards to go and game situation and ultimately be based on my gut looking at all the relative kicks.
In this week’s slate of games, there were 93 punts from opponent territory. Of these 12 came with the game within two scores and 3 or less yards to go. The ultimate chicken of the week goes to Frank Solich at Ohio (NTO). Facing a 4th and 1 from the Buffalo 36, Solich decides to “trust his defense” and punt the ball away. The gutless decision of the week is based on situation and not result, but man does the result really make this one good. Ohio punter Paul Hershey boots the ball 11 yards and Buffalo proceeds to march 75 yards for a touchdown on the ensuing drive. Ohio lost by 1. [Ed-M: For context, Buffalo's rush defense is among, if not the worst in the country.]
Updated Season Projection
About an 80% chance of hitting double digit regular season wins. With the expected win versus Northwestern, odds of an undefeated regular season stay at 1 in 11.
Remaining games with change vs last week’s odds:
@Michigan St: 47% (-1%)
Purdue: 100% (nc)
@Iowa: 70% (+7%)
@Illinois: 40% (-5%)
Nebraska: 77% (+3%)
Ohio: 93% (-2%)
My top 5
2. Oklahoma St
3. Boise St
Other Big Ten:
19. Michigan St
27. Penn St
Michigan St Preview
Michigan: +6, 5th (Oregon), 1st
Michigan St: +4, 6th, 1st
Denard: +4, 2nd QB rusher nationally (Klein, Kansas St)
Fitz: +1, 72nd RB (Smith, GT)
Vincent Smith: +1, (dnq)
Michigan: +3, 28th (Baylor), 3rd (Wisconsin)
Michigan St: +5, 12th, 2nd
Denard: +3, 51st passer (Griffin, Baylor)
Junior Hemingway: +5, 63rd (Kendall Wright, Baylor)
Michigan: +3, 23rd (LSU), 5th
Michigan St: –2, 98th, 11th
Le’Veon Bell: +1, 46th
Edwin Baker: –1, 188 (of 217)
Michigan: +1, 50th (UCF), 7th (Penn St)
Michigan St: +2, 42nd, 5th
Kirk Cousins: +3, 46th
BJ Cunningham: +8, 16th
Michigan: –1, 90th (Texas Tech), 12th (Purdue)
Michigan St: +1, 57th, 6th
I’ll go straight numbers here and call it 28-27 Michigan St but this game is a toss-up. Every unit is about comparable to the oppositions with the exception of Michigan’s run defense vs Sparty’s ground game in Michigan’s favor. A slight Michigan advantage there is offset by the game in East Lansing. We find any Hoke magic and Paul is heading back to Ann Arbor.